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Vale Indonesia (INCO) USD

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk mines and processes nickel in Indonesia, operating under a Contract of Work with the Indonesian government.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+27% y/y, H1 2026)✓Profit growing (+313% y/y, H1 2026)✓Net cash balance sheet✓30-year reserve life✗Priced above model value

Sector: Nickel mining

ID_INCO

Price chart

3 500 IDRDay -5.91%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
3 500 IDR · -5.91%
Market cap
2.0 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
27.3%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-8.8%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
13.1x
3y avg: 39.7x
P/B (FY)
0.7x
P/E (ann.)
9.7x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
9.2x
3y avg: 10.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
10.2x

Cash return

Dividend yield
2.2%
FCF yield (LTM)
-15.0%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-38.0%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
46.2 bln IDR

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK290.4
y/y 27.3%
—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—
y/y —
60.8
y/y 313.4%
56.0-115.53383.3
y/y 6.7%
2831.3
y/y 3.8%
7.4%-109.1Report (PDF)
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK252.7
y/y 22.3%
43.8
y/y 398.8%
3.5
y/y -91.5%
47.3
y/y -5.9%
43.6
y/y 100.1%
-17.6-139.03340.1
y/y 5.0%
2818.3
y/y 2.2%
6.2%-217.2Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK284.8
y/y 17.8%
-2.4
y/y -127.7%
46.3
y/y 10.2%
43.9
y/y -13.4%
23.6
y/y 255.0%
46.2-153.63345.8
y/y 5.3%
2775.1
y/y 1.5%
2.8%-372.9Report (PDF)
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK278.6
y/y -0.4%
34.8
y/y -20.5%
42.5
y/y -1.8%
77.3
y/y -7.5%
27.2
y/y 2.6%
95.4-106.73244.9
y/y 4.2%
2753.7
y/y 1.1%
2.6%-491.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK220.2
y/y -10.9%
0.2
y/y -81.5%
39.8
y/y -2.9%
40.0
y/y -31.9%
3.5
y/y -32.3%
37.5-97.53170.1
y/y 3.4%
2727.3
y/y 1.0%
1.8%-502.2Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK206.5
y/y -10.2%
8.8
y/y -40.3%
41.5
y/y -1.4%
50.3
y/y -11.5%
21.8
y/y 251.9%
55.7-128.13182.4
y/y 10.0%
2756.6
y/y 7.4%
3.2%-595.4Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK241.8
y/y —
8.7
y/y —
42.0
y/y —
50.7
y/y —
6.7
y/y —
47.2-131.63176.5
y/y —
2732.8
y/y —
2.1%-666.7Report (PDF)
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK229.8
y/y —
6.3
y/y —
42.4
y/y —
48.7
y/y —
13.8
y/y —
17.1-82.43112.9
y/y —
2724.5
y/y —
2.5%-762.9Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK248.8
y/y —
34.2
y/y —
41.6
y/y —
75.8
y/y —
31.1
y/y —
50.4-60.83066.2
y/y —
2699.3
y/y —
2.8%-823.8Report (PDF)
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK229.9
y/y —
14.7
y/y —
42.1
y/y —
56.8
y/y —
6.2
y/y —
92.8-57.32893.1
y/y —
2567.6
y/y —
—-721.0Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)2
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)0
− Cash & equivalents111
Net debt-109

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.5x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

01002003002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-50%0%50%100%2024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)

-200-150-100-500502024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

-1 000-800-600-400-20002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2024–2025 operating cash flow came to 3.34x of reported net profit; after capex, -2.73x.
year20242025
cash flow / profit3.59x3.09x
accruals, % of assets-4.7%-4.7%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.16x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA -1.8x · capex 2.4x of depreciation
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Nickel ore, saprolite (matte 72.0 kt FY25 shown in source; limonite 695.6 M wmt excluded - HPAL pending)

Proved reserves
480.40 M wmt
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
30.2 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
15.92 M wmt
2025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, M wmt
2025480.40

Production

YearProduction, M wmtper day, M wmt
202515.920.04

PT Vale Indonesia AR2025 (KCMI/SK-1300, IDX filing PDF; also vale.com): saprolite P&P ore reserves 480.40 M wmt @1.69% Ni at 31.12.2025 (p.75); FY25 total ore production 15.92 M wmt (p.8, all-saprolite ops). Matte production FY25 72.0 kt not used for R/P (no matching contained-Ni reserves disclosure). Prior panel (ore reserves vs matte production, mixed basis) replaced.

Indonesia — currency context

USD/IDR18025
1-week-0.1%
1-month+0.4%
room to 52w-weakest0.9%
DXY (dollar index)102.2
US 10Y4.99%

A weaker rupiah lowers the USD value of Indonesian equities for a foreign holder; for banks, BI's high policy rate (defending the currency) pressures margins.

as of 2026-10-27 (Yahoo)

Key-commodity price — Nickel

Current 15 586spot vs LTM +2%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: -38.0%

Main driver: Nickel +2% vs LTM; revenue ×1.02 vs costs ×0.96; EBITDA 41→83; at 12.0× EV/EBITDA → -38%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Nickel (rev)+95%15 649.0015 309.6417 077.91+2%+12%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue990
LTM EBITDA41
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)949
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.021 (+2%)
= Spot revenue1 011
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.110 (+11%)
= 3-year-price revenue1 099
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×0.963 (-4%)
= Spot cash costs914
Cost multiplier — 3y price×0.963 (-4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs914
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA97
= 3-year-price EBITDA185
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)83
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Target EV/EBITDA (EV / peak-FY EBITDA — no daily history)12.0x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA994
Net debt-373
Target market cap = EV − net debt1 367
Current market cap2 205

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -38.0%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2025 Q1207222-7.1%5038+32.0%
2025 Q2220212+3.9%4032+24.2%
2025 Q3279213+30.7%7732+144.5%
2025 Q4285228+25.1%4441+7.5%
2026 Q1253279-9.5%4780-40.7%
2026 Q2290297-2.3%—85—

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-06-1177.9 IDREx-dividend: 77.9 IDR per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-05-2753.4 IDREx-dividend: 53.4 IDR per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-05-1688.3333 IDREx-dividend: 88.3333 IDR per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.vale.com/indonesia/EN/investors

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Vale Indonesia (INCO) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s P/E ratio?
Vale Indonesia (INCO) trades at a P/E of 13.1x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s EV/EBITDA?
Vale Indonesia (INCO) trades at 9.2x EV/EBITDA.
What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s P/B ratio?
Vale Indonesia (INCO) trades at a P/B of 0.7x.
What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s dividend yield?
Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 2.2%.
What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s ROE is 7.4%.
What is Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s market capitalization?
Vale Indonesia (INCO)'s market cap is 2.0 bn USD.

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