Region: RU

Almost the whole spread between strong and weak reports comes down to one factor: the high key rate. It squeezes cyclicals (steel, construction, leasing volume, oil cash flow) and, conversely, feeds rate-geared financials (the exchange, banks' interest income). A rate turn is the main re-rating trigger for the beaten-down names.

Where we expect strong reports

Financials and digital platforms keep the pace. Sberbank posted +16% revenue and profit in Q1 at a P/E near 3.2 and a ~11% yield — the market anchor. OZON — revenue +49%, EBITDA +79% and a swing to profit, fintech scaling. Yandex — revenue +22%, EBITDA +54%. The Moscow Exchange — June turnover +42.9% YoY on the high rate (which is also the risk when it turns). T-Technologies — revenue +29%, MTS — profit +33%.

Revenue YoY, latest reported period

Where we expect weak reports

Steel — the whole sector. Severstal already reported a weak Q2: revenue −9%, EBITDA −40%, profit −74%; MMK's Q1 EBITDA was −58%, NLMK's full-year −45%. A strong rouble, soft domestic demand and the high rate hit construction. Oil (LUKOIL, Rosneft, Tatneft, NOVATEK) already showed −30…−40% EBITDA for 2025 on the strong rouble and soft rouble-oil — the same drivers hold into H1. HeadHunter — revenue already −2% as the labour market cools (see the hh-index). PhosAgro, Aeroflot and Magnit — EBITDA under pressure, with Magnit's profit turning negative against a growing X5.

What looks interesting

X5 versus Magnit — X5 is clearly winning retail (revenue +11%, EBITDA +26% against a stalling Magnit), a cleaner pair than a blunt consumer bet. In gold the operating momentum favours UGC (output +13% in 2025) over Polyus (−16% by volume), though Polyus is cheaper (P/E 2.8) and its revenue is held up by the metal price. Steel (NLMK, MMK at EV/EBITDA 1.6–1.7) is a counter-cyclical bet: too early to buy into a weak H1 print, but the sharpest re-rating candidate on a rate cut. HeadHunter is cheap (P/E 3.0, 16% yield) but the cooling hiring market makes it a potential value trap until vacancy demand stabilises.

Data caveats

Astra looks like a collapse on paper (Q1 EBITDA and profit deep in the red), but that is seasonality: ~70% of annual shipments fall in H2 and Q1 is structurally the weakest. The real signal is H1 shipments +26%. A few source multiples are artefacts (Severstal's P/E and X5's yield are blanked in the table below); no conclusions rest on them.

This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are from issuer reporting and the portal's market data.

This reporting season is defined by a single, stark divergence: Russia’s power grid and electricity sector is surging at a median revenue growth of +18.6%, while the commodity complex — coal, chemicals, metals, and oil — collectively shrinks. The fuel retail segment (+42.7% median) and IT/e-trading (+20.6%) also shine, but the real story is the collapse in heavy industry: coal revenue down 26.4%, chemicals down 17.5%, metals down 16.9%, and oil & gas down 8.5%. Investors are paying a premium for growth in utilities and tech, while value traps abound in energy and mining.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Power grids and e-commerce are the growth champions — and they are still cheap

The electricity sector delivered standout performances: IDGC South posted a staggering +146.7% revenue growth, while IDGC Siberia surged +71.9% and Mosenergo +30.8%. Among e-commerce and IT, OZON accelerated to +48.9% revenue growth (from +44.6% a year ago) and Positive Group hit +45.6% with EBITDA up +90.2%. Yet these growth stories trade at single-digit P/E multiples: OZON at 7.3x EV/EBITDA, Positive at 6.2x P/E, and IDGC South at just 4.6x P/E. For growth at a reasonable price, this is the place to look.

Oil, coal and metals are in a deep earnings recession — and some look like value traps

The commodity laggards are brutal: Raspadskaya (coal) saw revenue fall 26.4% and net profit collapse 349.6%. Mechel (metals) revenue dropped 25.9% and EBITDA turned deeply negative. Lukoil’s net profit cratered 233.3% on revenue down 14.8%. Even Gazprom, with revenue nearly flat (-0.3%), saw net profit plunge 45.9%. On valuation, many of these names look cheap on P/E — Bashneft at 3.5x, Lukoil at 2.6x EV/EBITDA — but the earnings base is eroding, making them classic value traps unless commodity prices rebound.

The surprise: fuel retail and pawnshops defy the consumer squeeze

The biggest plot twist comes from two unlikely corners: fuel retail and microfinance. Evrotrans AO, the sole fuel retail name, accelerated from a prior-year revenue run rate to +42.7% growth, with EBITDA up 27.0%. Even more striking, Mosgorlombard (pawnshop) posted an eye-popping +298.2% revenue growth, accelerating from +295.2% a year ago — a near-tripling of business. Meanwhile, MTS Bank surged +64.9% (from +10.4% prior), and Sovcombank +71.9% (from +19.0%). This suggests that while the broader consumer is under pressure, niche lending and essential services are booming.

Valuation disconnect: growth at 4x earnings vs. cyclicals at 40x

The valuation landscape is wildly distorted. ArenaData, growing revenue +45.5% with a 3-year CAGR of +52.0%, trades at just 4.6x P/E and 3.6x EV/EBITDA. Evrotrans, growing +42.7%, trades at an absurd 0.9x P/E. At the other extreme, Severstal, with revenue down 8.6% and net profit down 74.1%, trades at 39.4x P/E — priced for a recovery that has not yet materialized. Similarly, Inkab Holding at 79.8x P/E with no disclosed growth is a warning sign. The market is punishing growth and rewarding hope in cyclicals — a classic setup for mean reversion.

Dividend yield is scarce — but a few names offer real income

With many companies slashing payouts, the standout dividend stories are few. FGC UES offers a P/E of just 0.4x, implying an enormous yield if payouts normalize — but the EBITDA surge of +471.2% suggests cash flow is finally improving. TNS energy trades at 0.2x EV/EBITDA and a P/E of 1.8x, with net profit up +282.0%, making it a potential yield play. Among more stable names, Cherkizovo (P/E 3.9x) grew net profit +50.7% and could sustain a healthy dividend. For income seekers, the grid and food sectors are the safest bets.

Looking at the three-year revenue CAGR, the long-term winners are clear: APRI (real estate) grew at +157.5% annually, Mosgorlombard at +197.7%, and Evrotrans at +60.0%. These are not flukes — they reflect structural shifts in the economy. The losers on a multi-year basis are equally telling: Raspadskaya (-15.6% CAGR), Mechel (-12.9%), and M.Video (-6.9%) show that structural decline in coal, metals, and legacy retail is real. The next quarter will test whether the grid and tech rally can sustain, or if the commodity rout deepens further. Watch for margin recovery in oil — if it comes, the value trap narrative could flip fast.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

Severstal reported Q2 2026 revenue of RUB 169.6bn, down 8.6% YoY — an improvement from the 18.7% YoY decline in Q1 2026, indicating accelerating revenue growth (i.e., a less negative rate). EBITDA fell 39.7% YoY to RUB 23.1bn, also a milder decline than the 54.5% drop in the prior quarter. However, net profit slumped 74.1% YoY to RUB 4.1bn, reversing the prior quarter's anomalous 170.5% YoY surge.

Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: Key metrics YoY change

Margin and cost dynamics

The EBITDA margin compressed sharply to 13.6% (EBITDA/revenue) from 20.7% a year ago, reflecting cost pressures and lower steel prices. Net profit margin fell to 2.4% from 8.4% in Q2 2025, weighed by higher depreciation and financial charges. The sequential improvement in revenue and EBITDA trends suggests some stabilization in demand, but profitability remains under severe strain.

Key figures (RUB m)

Outlook

Severstal's Q2 results show a mixed picture: revenue decline is moderating, but net profit remains deeply negative on a YoY basis. The company's net debt rose significantly over the past year, adding financial leverage. Key watchpoints for the coming quarters include steel price trends, cost inflation, and any updates on dividend policy or capex guidance. The sequential improvement in top-line trends offers a tentative positive signal, but margin recovery will be critical for earnings momentum.

In the Information Technology sector, ASTR reported shipments of 7.3 bln RUB for H1 2026, while WUSH recorded 56.5 mln trips for H1 2026 with zero year-on-year growth. DELI sold 491 mln minutes in Q1 2026, up 33.4% year-on-year, and OZON posted GMV of 1135.4 bln RUB for Q1 2026, a 35.5% increase. These figures suggest divergent momentum: strong growth in ride-sharing minutes and e-commerce turnover contrasts with stagnation in scooter trips and a lack of prior comparison for software shipments.

Operating momentum, latest reported period (YoY)

In the Financial sector, LEAS generated new business of 49.1 bln RUB in H1 2026, up 13.1% year-on-year, and MOEX recorded total turnover of 190.7 trln RUB for June 2026, a 42.9% increase. Both indicators reflect robust activity in leasing and exchange operations. In Retail, X5 posted net retail revenue of 1175.1 bln RUB for Q1 2026 (+11.2% year-on-year), while MGNT reported LFL sales growth of 8.7% for FY 2025, indicating steady like-for-like performance.

In Metals & Mining, steel production declined across the board: CHMF 2.7 mln t in Q1 2026 (-4.1% year-on-year), MAGN 10.1 mln t in FY 2025 (-9.8%), NLMK 14 mln t in FY 2025 (-2.1%). RUAL produced 3.9 mln t of aluminium in FY 2025 (-1.9%). In Mining, GMKN produced 198.5 thsd t of nickel in FY 2025 (-3.2%), PLZL 2528.8 koz of gold (-15.8%), and UGLD 12 t of gold (+13.2%). The sector shows contraction in steel, nickel, and gold output, with only UGLD posting growth.

In Oil & Gas, NVTK produced 84.6 bln m3 of gas in FY 2025 (+0.6% year-on-year). In Transport, AFLT carried 55.3 mln passengers in FY 2025 (flat year-on-year). In Construction, ETLN reported contract value of 24.7 bln RUB for Q1 2026 (no prior comparison). In Agriculture, AQUA posted biomass in water of 30.1 thsd t for FY 2025 (+33.2%). In Chemicals, PHOR produced 9.2 mln t of agrochemicals for 9M 2025 (no prior comparison). Key focus for upcoming reports: margin impact of flat or declining volumes in metals and transport, and whether IT and retail growth rates can be sustained.

Diasoft reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 2,945m, down 1.4% YoY from RUB 2,987m in Q1 2025, marking a sharp deceleration from the 22.0% growth seen in H2 2025. EBITDA fell 51.4% YoY to RUB 481m, also decelerating from the -5.7% decline in H2 2025. Net profit was not disclosed for the quarter.

YoY Growth: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

Key Financial Highlights

The sharp EBITDA decline was driven by a combination of slightly lower revenue and likely higher operating costs, though segment-level details were not provided. The EBITDA margin compressed from 33.1% in Q1 2025 to 16.3% in Q1 2026, reflecting significant margin pressure. Net debt increased by RUB 0.4bn over the past 12 months, reaching RUB 0.8bn as of March 2026, equivalent to 3.8% of market cap.

Key Figures (RUB m)

Outlook

The deceleration in both revenue and EBITDA raises concerns about near-term demand and cost control. With net debt rising and margins under pressure, investors should watch for any signs of stabilization in the coming quarters. No guidance or dividend updates were provided.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX) reported a strong start to 2026, with Q1 net profit reaching RUB 17,163 mn, up 32.2% YoY from RUB 12,979 mn in Q1 2025. Revenue growth accelerated sharply to +16.3% YoY in Q1 2026 from -14.4% in H1 2025, driven by high key-rate-driven net interest income (NII) and a recovery in trading volumes.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth

Key Drivers

The earnings beat was primarily driven by two legs: net interest income (NII), which benefits from elevated key rates and client fund balances, and fee & commission income, which rebounded as trading activity in equities, derivatives, and FX recovered. EBITDA for Q1 2026 stood at RUB 17,163 mn, essentially matching net profit, indicating a high-margin quarter with minimal impairment or non-cash charges. The balance sheet expanded to RUB 13.17 trn in total assets, reflecting MOEX's central counterparty role.

Key Figures (RUB mn)

Outlook

With revenue growth accelerating from a contraction in H1 2025 to +16.3% in Q1 2026, MOEX appears to be benefiting from a cyclical recovery in trading volumes and sustained high interest rates. Investors should watch for any shift in monetary policy, which could compress NII, and monitor fee income trends as a proxy for market activity. No dividend or guidance updates were provided in this release.

Cian reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 3,895 mn (+17.9% YoY), a deceleration from the 21.4% YoY growth recorded in H1 2024. Adj. EBITDA surged 77.5% to RUB 1,264 mn, with margin expanding 11.6 pp to 34.4%, driven by flat operating expenses (−0.4% YoY). Net profit jumped 363% YoY to RUB 1.0 bn (Q1 2025: 217 mn).

YoY Growth: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

What Drove the Result

Core-business revenue grew 19.3% YoY, outpacing the group, while lead-generation revenue rose 18.4% YoY on market-share gains. Display ads added 10% YoY. The key swing factor was operating expenses declining 0.4% YoY, enabling the 11.6 pp margin expansion. Operating cash flow fell 9% YoY due to a corporate-tax pre-payment and adverse working-capital timing.

Key Figures (RUB mn)

Outlook

Management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance: revenue growth of +17–22% YoY and adj. EBITDA margin ≥30%. An interim dividend of RUB 53/share (6% above prior guidance) was recommended, payable 22-Jun-2026, with an additional dividend planned later in the year. The strong margin trajectory and cost discipline support the outlook, though revenue deceleration warrants monitoring.

Gazprom reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 2,799,209m, virtually flat YoY (-0.3%), a sharp acceleration from the -18.2% decline in Q4 2025. EBITDA rose 17.5% YoY to RUB 977,548m, while net profit fell 45.9% to RUB 375,655m, reflecting higher depreciation and finance costs.

YoY Growth: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

Key Drivers

Revenue stabilization was driven by higher gas prices and stable export volumes, partially offset by lower domestic sales. EBITDA growth outpaced revenue due to cost controls and favorable mix, but net profit was weighed by a 36.5% decline in Q4 2025 net profit and higher interest expenses.

Key Figures (RUB m)

Outlook

With revenue growth turning positive sequentially and EBITDA expanding, Gazprom appears to be past the worst of the volume decline. However, net profit remains under pressure from debt costs and a high base. Watch for further margin improvement and any update on dividend policy.

HeadHunter reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 9,492 mn, down 1.5% YoY — the first decline after several years of growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 48.2% from 51.2% a year earlier. However, IFRS net profit rose 8.5% YoY to RUB 3.7 bn, diverging from the top-line weakness due to lower interest costs and favorable tax items.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth by Segment

What Drove the Result

The core HR business declined 3.3% YoY, pressured by softness in the SME/mid-market subscription revenue. In contrast, the HRtech segment surged 32.1% YoY to RUB 698 mn, with its adjusted EBITDA margin improving from -18.6% to -7.6% (still loss-making but narrowing). Within the core, Large Clients revenue rose 9.0% YoY, supported by a 9.4% increase in ARPC. Net profit growth (+8.5%) despite revenue decline reflects lower interest costs, a favorable tax position, and one-off finance items — operating margins compressed.

Key Figures

Outlook

The first revenue decline is a clear signal of macro pressure on the Russian labour market, particularly in the SME segment. However, the HRtech pivot (+32% YoY) and continued strength in Large Clients provide strategic offsets. No dividend or guidance update was provided. Key watchpoints: whether core revenue stabilizes in coming quarters and how quickly HRtech can reach breakeven.

Rushydro reported a strong Q1 2026, with revenue of RUB 210,941m (+19.0% YoY) and EBITDA of RUB 79,184m (+45.2% YoY), both accelerating from the 15.2% and 115.9% growth seen in Q4 2025, respectively. Net profit surged 96.6% YoY to RUB 37,235m, reflecting robust operational leverage.

YoY Growth in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

Key Drivers

The revenue acceleration was driven by higher electricity prices and increased output, while EBITDA growth outpaced revenue due to cost control and operating leverage. Net profit more than doubled, aided by lower interest expenses and improved efficiency.

Key Figures (RUB m)

Outlook

With accelerating top-line growth and strong margin expansion, Rushydro is well-positioned for the remainder of 2026. Key watchpoints include water inflow levels and regulatory tariff decisions, which will influence future earnings momentum.

Inter RAO reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 523,325 mn, up 18.6% YoY — accelerating from the 13.2% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2025. EBITDA rose 6.1% YoY to RUB 52,391 mn, while net profit slipped 1.5% YoY to RUB 46,510 mn, highlighting a sharp divergence between top-line momentum and bottom-line stagnation.

YoY Growth (%) — Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

What drove the result

The 18.6% revenue acceleration likely reflects higher wholesale electricity prices and capacity-market payments, but the near-flat net profit suggests rising operating, fuel, or power-purchase costs eroded the incremental margin. Inter RAO's vertically integrated model (generation, supply, trading) makes it sensitive to wholesale price dynamics and regulatory changes. The balance sheet remains exceptionally cash-rich, with total equity of RUB 1,187,917 mn (equity ratio ~75%), supporting an ongoing M&A/dividend narrative — though no specific announcement was made this quarter.

Key Figures (RUB mn)

Outlook

The key question for Inter RAO is whether the margin compression is temporary (e.g., one-off cost items) or structural (rising input costs outpacing tariff indexation). With net debt falling sharply (by RUB 142.4 bn in Q1 alone), the company retains ample financial flexibility for potential M&A or special dividends. Investors should watch for segment-level disclosures in the full IFRS report and any updates on capacity-market reforms or dividend policy.

MD Medical reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 11,834 mln, up 32.1% YoY, accelerating from the 22.2% growth seen in H1 2025. The operating-only update (no net profit or EBITDA) highlighted a like-for-like (LFL) increase of 9.2%, with the acquired Эксперт network contributing ~17% of total revenue.

YoY Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 vs Prior Periods

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue growth was primarily organic (LFL +9.2%) and augmented by the Эксперт network acquisition in 2025. For FY2025, full-year revenue reached RUB 43,455 mln (+31% YoY), with net profit of RUB 11,035 mln and EBITDA of RUB 13,289 mln. The Q1 2026 update did not include profit or EBITDA figures.

Key Figures (RUB mln)

Outlook

With revenue growth accelerating and the Эксперт integration progressing, the key watchpoints are the H1 2026 full financials (due mid-year) for margin and net profit trends. Net debt rose to RUB 0.6 bn as of Dec 2025, up RUB 0.7 bn vs Jun 2025 and RUB 5.0 bn vs Dec 2024, but remains modest relative to EBITDA.

Mosgorlombard reported FY2025 net profit of RUB 724 mln (+84% YoY) and EBITDA of RUB 2.3 bn, while H1 2025 net interest income growth decelerated to -17.3% YoY from +5.0% in H2 2024, reflecting a slowdown in core lending revenue.

Key Metrics YoY Growth (%)

FY2025 Earnings: Profit Surge Driven by Non-Interest Income

FY2025 net profit jumped 84% to RUB 724 mln, despite a decline in net interest income in H1 2025. The profit growth was likely fueled by higher non-interest income, including gains from precious metals trading, which also boosted EBITDA to RUB 2.3 bn. Equity strengthened to RUB 1,770 mln by year-end 2025, up from RUB 1,055 mln at end-2024.

Key Financial Figures (RUB mln)

Q1 2026 Preliminary Update: Revenue Surge, but Profit Unclear

For Q1 2026, Mosgorlombard reported preliminary consolidated revenue of ~RUB 13,300 mln, roughly 4x YoY, driven by a surge in low-margin precious metals resale/wholesale. However, net profit was not disclosed, and the revenue jump does not translate into proportional earnings growth. The company's core lending business remains under pressure, as evidenced by the H1 2025 NII decline.

Outlook

Investors should focus on the sustainability of profit growth from non-lending activities and any recovery in net interest income. The Q1 2026 preliminary figures highlight the volatility from metals trading, which may obscure underlying lending trends. Watch for full Q1 2026 profit disclosure and any guidance on core lending margins.

IDGC Center & Volga reported Q1 2026 results with revenue of RUB 46,417 mn (+13.9% YoY), EBITDA of RUB 15,924 mn (+18.6% YoY), and net profit of RUB 8,833 mn (+26.0% YoY). Revenue growth decelerated from 19.4% YoY in Q4 2025, while EBITDA growth also slowed from 127.7% YoY in the prior quarter.

YoY Growth in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025

Margin expansion drives profit growth

EBITDA margin improved to 34.3% in Q1 2026 (vs 32.9% in Q1 2025), while net profit margin rose to 19.0% (vs 17.2% a year ago). The stronger profit growth relative to revenue reflects operational leverage and cost control. Net debt decreased by RUB 7.6 bn in the quarter, reducing leverage.

Key Figures (RUB mn)

Outlook

The deceleration in revenue growth from Q4 2025 levels warrants monitoring, though margin improvement and debt reduction are positive signals. With net debt falling sharply, the company may have increased financial flexibility for investments or dividends. No guidance or dividend update was provided.

MTS reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 201.3 bn (+14.7% YoY), decelerating from the 17.4% YoY growth in H2 2025. EBITDA rose 4.8% YoY to RUB 66.4 bn, while net profit (to MTS holders) surged 46.4% YoY to RUB 7.2 bn, driven by operating leverage and lower interest costs.

Key Metrics YoY Growth (%)

What Drove the Result

Telecom revenue (+14.7% YoY) remained the core driver, with B2O interconnect (+33.7%) and B2B/G (+15.8%) outpacing B2C mobile (+9.5%). Fintech revenue grew 18.4% YoY, supported by high interest rates and Fintech ARR growth. OIBDA margin expanded 1.0 pp to 37.1%, while operating profit grew 28.7% YoY — the fastest P&L line — reflecting cost discipline and scale benefits. Net debt/LTM OIBDA improved to 1.6x from 1.8x a year ago, though net debt rose in absolute terms.

Key Figures (RUB bn)

Outlook

The board recommended a RUB 35/share dividend for FY 2025 (total RUB 69.9 bn), with a record date of 9-Jul-2026. Key watchpoints: sustaining telecom B2O and fintech momentum, managing capex intensity (22% of revenue in Q1), and the trajectory of net debt given recent bond issuances (RUB 60 bn YTD). External MWS revenue (+46% YoY) signals cloud growth, though group-level MWS declined due to internal cannibalisation.

OZON reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 300.9 bn, up 48.9% YoY, accelerating from 43.7% YoY in Q4 2025. EBITDA rose 78.6% YoY to RUB 45.7 bn, while net profit reached RUB 4.5 bn versus a loss of RUB 7.9 bn a year ago — the fourth consecutive profitable quarter.

Key Metrics YoY Growth (%)

What Drove the Result

E-commerce revenue rose 46% YoY to RUB 250.1 bn, with adj. EBITDA margin as % of GMV improving 0.4 pp to 2.8%. Fintech revenue surged 59% YoY to RUB 58.9 bn, driven by interest revenue (+74% YoY). Service revenue grew 55% YoY to RUB 185.6 bn, supported by a 36% GMV increase and 83% order growth — orders accelerating for the third consecutive quarter. High-frequency buyers nearly doubled YoY to ~18 mn.

Key Figures (RUB bn)

Outlook

Management targets full-year profitability for 2026, supported by continued fintech scaling and service revenue growth. The acceleration in orders and frequency suggests structural demand. Net debt rose RUB 92.7 bn vs end-2025 to RUB 476.6 bn, but EBITDA growth is outpacing debt accumulation. No dividend is paid.

Positive Technologies reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 3,414M, up 45.6% YoY, accelerating from the 35.5% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2025. EBITDA loss narrowed to -RUB 153M from -RUB 1,571M a year ago, and net loss improved to -RUB 1,388M from -RUB 2,774M. The company is extremely Q4-seasonal, with most license revenue booked in the final quarter, making Q1 the trough; the sequential improvement in losses is a positive signal.

Key Metrics YoY Change, Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025