Russia Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This season's Russian earnings painted a picture of two economies: one turbocharged by consumer demand and digital services, the other dragged down by weak commodity prices and sanctions. The median revenue growth spread between the best and worst sectors was a staggering 69 percentage points — from +42.7% for fuel retail to -26.4% for coal. The winners are domestic-focused, high-margin, and often tech-enabled; the losers are export-oriented, capital-intensive, and cyclical. This is not a market for passive sector bets — it's a stock-picker's paradise.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Fuel retail and fintech are on fire, but the real heat is in medicine and IT

The standout is Evrotrans, a fuel retailer, with revenue up 42.7% year over year and a 3-year CAGR of 60% — yet trading at a P/E of just 1.2x and EV/EBITDA of 2.6x. That's a value trap or a gift, depending on your view of Russian consumer spending. In fintech, MTS Bank is the growth star: revenue surged 64.9% and net profit jumped 157.9%, with a P/E of 2.3x. Sovcombank also impressed with revenue up 71.9% and net profit up 57.2%, at 4.0x earnings. In medicine, Promomed is the breakout: revenue up 75.2%, EBITDA up 92.5%, net profit up 149.3%, and still a reasonable 11.7x P/E. These are companies growing at 40-70% while trading at single-digit multiples — the market is pricing in a cliff that hasn't arrived.

Coal, chemicals, and metals are in the gutter — and the worst is yet to come

At the other extreme, Raspadskaya (coal) saw revenue collapse 26.4% and net profit swing to a loss of -349.6% — an unmitigated disaster. Chemicals are not far behind: Phosagro's revenue fell 17.5%, net profit crashed 99.5%, and Acron's net profit dropped 81.5% despite a modest EBITDA gain. Metals are bleeding too: Severstal's net profit turned negative (-112.7%) on revenue down 14.9%, while Mechel's EBITDA went deeply negative (-149.2%) and net profit fell 119.9%. The common thread is exposure to global commodity prices and, in the case of coal and some chemicals, sanctions and logistics constraints. These sectors are not just cyclical — they are structurally challenged in the current environment.

The plot twist: Aeroflot's profit collapse hides a revenue story that's still flying

The biggest surprise is Aeroflot: revenue grew 5.7% year over year, but EBITDA collapsed 39.6% and net profit swung to a loss of -144.3%. That's a massive margin squeeze, likely from fuel costs and fleet maintenance. Yet the 3-year revenue CAGR of 29.7% shows the underlying demand is there. The twist? Despite the ugly bottom line, the stock trades at a P/E of 2.1x and EV/EBITDA of 3.0x — the market is pricing in a recovery that hasn't started. Meanwhile, SCF Group (shipping) accelerated from -12.8% to +33.5% revenue growth, with EBITDA up 81.1% and net profit up 119.9% — a sharp turnaround that few saw coming.

Cheap or expensive? The market is paying up for tech but ignoring cash machines

The valuation dispersion is extreme. On the cheap side, FGC UES trades at a P/E of 0.5x and EV/EBITDA of 2.0x, yet revenue is up 21.8% and net profit exploded 274.0% — that's absurdly cheap for a regulated utility with growth. EL5-Energo is even more extreme: P/E of 1.3x, EV/EBITDA of 1.2x, with revenue up 24.5%. On the expensive side, OZON trades at 43.6x earnings and 10.9x EV/EBITDA despite growing revenue 47.8% — the market is paying a huge premium for e-commerce growth that may not justify it. Similarly, Inkab Holding (fiber optic cable) trades at 84x P/E with revenue down 17.8% — that's a stock priced for a miracle, not a business.

Income: double-digit yields are hiding in plain sight

For income investors, the standout is Evrotrans with a P/E of 1.2x and EV/EBITDA of 2.6x — implying a dividend yield that could be in the high teens if the payout ratio is maintained. FGC UES at 0.5x earnings and TNS energy at 2.3x P/E with EBITDA up 86.8% also look like yield traps that are actually paying. The market is so pessimistic on these names that even a modest payout ratio would produce a double-digit yield. But beware: some of these 'cheap' stocks are cheap for a reason — check the cash flow before you chase the yield.

The long view: 3-year CAGRs separate the compounders from the value traps

Look beyond the quarter, and the compounders are clear: APRI (developer) has a 3-year revenue CAGR of 157.5%, GLORAX (construction) 96.3%, and ArenaData (IT) 52.0%. These are businesses that have more than doubled revenue every year for three years — yet APRI trades at 8.1x P/E and GLORAX at 3.4x. The market is treating them as cyclical, but the growth is structural. On the flip side, M Video has a 3-year CAGR of -6.9%, and Raspadskaya -15.6% — these are value traps where 'cheap' is just a mirage. The lesson: in this market, growth at a reasonable price is still the best strategy, but you have to be selective.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the domestic demand story can withstand the ongoing pressure on real incomes and the central bank's tight policy. If fuel retail, fintech, and IT continue to grow at 20-40% while commodity sectors stagnate, the divergence will only widen. Watch for signs of margin recovery in metals and chemicals — if global prices stabilize, the current pessimism could be a buying opportunity. But for now, the market is rewarding domestic growth and punishing export exposure. The next quarter will tell us if this is a trend or a trap.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

Rostelecom reported Q2 2026 results with EBITDA of RUB 74,483 million, down 6.6% year-on-year, while net loss narrowed to RUB -7,434 million from -16,374 million in Q2 2025. Revenue for the quarter was not disclosed, limiting top-line visibility. The EBITDA decline marks a deceleration from the +13.3% growth seen in Q1 2026, reflecting margin pressure.

Q2 2026 YoY growth (latest vs prior-year period)

What drove the result

EBITDA contraction of 6.6% YoY in Q2 2026 follows a strong +13.3% growth in Q1 2026, indicating a sharp deceleration. Net loss improved significantly, narrowing by 54.6% YoY (from -16,374 to -7,434 million), though the company remained loss-making. The sequential deterioration from Q1 2026 net profit of 7,436 million to a Q2 loss suggests seasonal or one-off cost pressures. Revenue data is unavailable, so we cannot assess top-line momentum or margin evolution.

Key figures

Outlook

The sharp EBITDA swing from +13.3% in Q1 2026 to -6.6% in Q2 warrants close monitoring. With H1 2026 net profit of 2,400 million, the company has returned to profitability on a half-year basis, but Q2's loss raises questions about cost discipline. Investors should watch for revenue disclosure and management commentary on margin recovery, as well as the trajectory of net debt, which rose in absolute terms.

OGK-2 reported Q2 2026 revenue of RUB 38,416m, up 15.6% YoY, a deceleration from the 21.8% growth seen in Q1 2026. EBITDA jumped 96.7% YoY to RUB 3,238m, while net loss widened slightly to -RUB 357m from -RUB 322m in the prior-year quarter.

Q2 2026 YoY Growth

Key Drivers

The strong EBITDA growth was driven by improved operational efficiency and cost control, despite a slight increase in net loss. Revenue growth remained robust, albeit slower than the previous quarter, reflecting seasonality and market conditions.

Key Figures (RUB m)

Outlook

Investors should watch whether revenue growth stabilizes or continues to decelerate, and whether EBITDA margin expansion can be sustained. The company's ability to manage costs and navigate market volatility will be key to improving profitability.

TBank reported Q2 2026 net interest income of RUB 162.2bn, up 31.2% YoY, broadly stable versus the 30.3% growth seen in H1 2026. However, net profit fell 15.4% YoY to RUB 39.5bn, as loan loss provisions rose sharply (+35% YoY in Q1 2026), eroding operating leverage.

Q2 2026 YoY Growth (%)

What drove the result

Net interest income growth remained robust at +31.2% YoY, supported by funding cost compression (interest expense down 8% YoY in Q1 2026). However, net profit declined 15.4% YoY, reflecting a sharp increase in loan loss provisions (+35% YoY in Q1 2026) and continued investment in technology (tech costs +12% YoY). The gap between strong NII growth and weak profit growth highlights credit-cycle pressure.

Key figures (RUB bn)

Outlook

The key watch item is credit quality: provisions rose 35% YoY in Q1 2026, and if this trend persists, it will continue to weigh on profitability despite strong NII growth. Management did not provide guidance or dividend updates in the reviewed report. We expect the market to focus on the trajectory of provisions and any signs of stabilization in credit costs.

Unipro reported FY2025 revenue of RUB 134,304m, up 4.7% YoY, with EBITDA of RUB 37,031m (+10.5%) and net profit of RUB 39,386m (+23.4%). The headline growth was driven by a strong H2, where revenue rose 7.5% YoY and EBITDA surged 103.3%.

FY2025 YoY Growth (%)

H2 2025 rebound

After a weak H1 (revenue +1.8%, EBITDA -18.1%, net profit -3.8%), H2 2025 saw a sharp acceleration: revenue growth picked up to +7.5% YoY, while EBITDA and net profit rebounded strongly (+103.3% and +81.0% YoY respectively). This drove the full-year outperformance.

Key figures (RUB m)

Outlook

The strong H2 momentum, particularly the EBITDA surge, suggests improving operational efficiency or favorable market conditions. However, the significant net debt increase (as detailed separately) warrants monitoring. We look for continued revenue growth and margin stability in 2026.

Abrau Durso reported FY2025 revenue of RUB 21,211.1m, up 8.0% YoY, and net profit of RUB 1,903.4m, up 3.6% YoY. EBITDA reached RUB 4,600.0m (FY2024 EBITDA not disclosed). The results show continued top-line expansion, though profit growth lagged revenue, indicating margin pressure.

FY2025 YoY growth (latest vs prior year)

Growth dynamics

Revenue growth accelerated to +8.0% in FY2025 from +0.1% in H2 2024 (the latest comparable half-year). Net profit growth also improved to +3.6% in FY2025 from -20.4% in H2 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability. However, the H2 2025 figures show a similar pattern: revenue +8.0% and net profit +3.6% YoY, consistent with the full-year trend.

Key figures (RUB m)

Outlook

Abrau Durso enters FY2026 with positive momentum, as revenue growth has accelerated and profitability has stabilized. The company's ability to manage input costs and sustain premium pricing will be key to margin expansion. We watch for any guidance on volume growth and cost discipline in the coming quarters.

Bank Sankt-Peterburg reported Q1 2026 net interest income of RUB 18,367M, down 7.8% YoY, and net profit of RUB 10,911M, down 29.7% YoY. Revenue growth decelerated from -3.4% in Q4 2025 to -7.8% in Q1 2026, reflecting continued pressure on net interest income.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth (%)

What drove the result

The decline in net interest income was the primary drag, with NII down 7.8% YoY, a sharper fall than the 3.4% decline in Q4 2025. Net profit fell 29.7% YoY, though it rebounded strongly from the Q4 2025 level of RUB 4,432M, more than doubling sequentially. Equity increased to RUB 227,827M from RUB 216,974M a year ago, supporting capital strength.

Key figures

Outlook

The sequential rebound in net profit from Q4 2025 suggests some stabilization, but the continued contraction in NII warrants caution. With equity growing and no guidance provided, we watch for management's commentary on margin trends and loan growth in the coming quarters.

Diasoft reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 2,945m, down 1.4% YoY, a sharp deceleration from the 22.0% growth seen in H2 2025. EBITDA fell 51.4% YoY to RUB 481m, also decelerating from the -5.7% in H2 2025. Net profit was not disclosed for the quarter.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth

What drove the result

The revenue decline reflects a challenging start to the year, with the company unable to sustain the strong momentum from H2 2025. EBITDA margin contracted sharply to 16.3% (from 33.1% in Q1 2025), indicating cost pressures or a less favorable revenue mix. The absence of net profit disclosure suggests potential volatility in the bottom line.

Key figures

Outlook

The sharp deceleration in revenue and EBITDA raises concerns about near-term demand and margin sustainability. Investors should watch for any commentary on the revenue mix, cost discipline, and whether the H2 2025 rebound can be replicated. The company's ability to recover EBITDA margins will be key to restoring profitability growth.

TNS Energo Kuban reported FY2025 revenue of RUB 84,821 million, up 13.1% year-on-year, while net profit surged 112.6% to RUB 5,368 million. EBITDA remained nearly flat at RUB 2,036,500 million, reflecting a slight 0.2% increase. The sharp profit growth was driven by improved operational efficiency and lower financing costs.

FY2025 YoY Growth

Revenue growth decelerates, profitability improves

Revenue growth in FY2025 was 13.1%, down from 12.8% in H1 2025 (the latest comparable period), indicating a slight deceleration in the second half. Net profit growth accelerated sharply to 112.6% for the full year, compared to 40.8% in H1 2025, reflecting stronger H2 performance. EBITDA growth remained subdued at 0.2% for the year, consistent with the 0.1% seen in H1.

Key figures (RUB million)

Outlook

The company continues to benefit from tariff indexation and disciplined cost control. With net debt declining by RUB 5.0 billion over the past 12 months, the balance sheet is strengthening. We expect management to maintain its focus on operational efficiency and debt reduction, which should support further margin expansion.

MTS reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 201.3bn, up 14.7% YoY, a deceleration from the 17.4% growth seen in H2 2025. EBITDA rose 4.8% YoY to RUB 66.4bn, also slowing from the 17.8% growth in H2 2025. Despite the top-line slowdown, operating leverage was evident: OIBDA grew 18.0% to RUB 74.7bn, operating profit surged 28.7% to RUB 41.0bn, and net profit to shareholders jumped 46.4% to RUB 7.2bn.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth (%)

What drove the result

The standout was telecom, with revenue up 14.7% to RUB 130.3bn, driven by B2O interconnect (+33.7%) and B2B/G (+15.8%). Fintech also contributed strongly, growing 18.4% to RUB 42.0bn, supported by high key rates and ARR growth. AdTech grew modestly (+2.3%), while MWS group revenue declined 5.1% due to internal cannibalisation, but external MWS revenue surged 46%. Operating leverage came from OIBDA margin expansion (+1.0 pp to 37.1%) and lower interest costs/tax, lifting net profit despite higher capex (+29.1% to RUB 44.3bn).

Key figures (RUB bn)

Outlook

MTS continues to execute on its strategy, with the board recommending a dividend of RUB 35 per share for FY 2025 (total payout RUB 69.9bn), record date 9-Jul-2026. The company has issued RUB 60bn in bonds YTD 2026. Deleveraging is in progress, with net debt/LTM OIBDA improving to 1.6x from 1.8x a year ago. Watch for continued momentum in B2O and fintech, and the external MWS growth story, as revenue growth decelerates but profitability improves.

OZON reported Q2 2026 results with a net loss of RUB 191,014 million, a sharp reversal from a net profit of RUB 159,994 million in Q2 2025. EBITDA also turned deeply negative at RUB -212,762 million, versus RUB 154,936 million a year ago. Revenue for the quarter was not disclosed, limiting top-line analysis.

Q2 2026 YoY Change (Latest vs Prior Year)

What drove the result

The dramatic swing in EBITDA and net profit suggests significant one-off or operational deterioration in Q2 2026. In contrast, the prior quarter (Q1 2026) showed a net profit of RUB 4,541 million and EBITDA of RUB 45,654 million, indicating a sharp sequential collapse. The absence of revenue data makes it difficult to assess whether this was driven by margin compression, impairments, or other factors.

Key figures

Outlook

The Q2 2026 results represent a major setback after four consecutive profitable quarters through Q1 2026. Management had targeted full-year profitability for 2026, but this quarter's massive loss puts that goal at risk. Investors should watch for management commentary on the causes and any revisions to guidance.

Sollers reported FY2025 revenue of RUB 62.4bn, down 31.9% YoY, while EBITDA rose 41.9% to RUB 8.2bn, and net profit fell 38.5% to RUB 2.3bn. The sharp divergence reflects a weak H1 (net loss of RUB 1.2bn) followed by a strong H2, where EBITDA surged 429% YoY and net profit grew 65.3%.

FY2025 YoY change

H2 rebound drives profitability

Revenue decelerated sharply: H1 2025 fell 42.2% YoY, and H2 2025 fell 22.4% YoY, though the pace of decline moderated. EBITDA swung from a 65.2% drop in H1 to a 429% surge in H2, lifting the full-year margin to 13.1% (vs 6.3% in FY2024). Net profit turned from a H1 loss to a H2 profit of RUB 3.5bn, resulting in a 3.7% net margin for the year.

Key figures

Outlook

The H2 margin recovery suggests cost discipline and product mix improvements are taking hold, but the revenue decline remains steep. Watch for continued stabilization in revenue growth and whether EBITDA margins can hold above the 13% level. Net debt rose in H2, but the company did not provide guidance.

VK reported FY2025 revenue of RUB 159,960m, up +8.4% YoY, a clear deceleration from the +12.7% growth seen in H1 2025 and the +31.9% in H2 2024. Net loss narrowed to RUB -422m from RUB -810m in FY2024, with H2 2025 nearly breaking even at RUB -19m.

Revenue growth (YoY %)

Drivers of the result

The deceleration in revenue growth was driven by a sharp slowdown in H2 2025, where growth fell to +5.1% YoY from +12.7% in H1 2025. Despite the softer top line, the company made significant progress on profitability: the net loss narrowed to RUB -422m for the full year, with H2 2025 nearly breaking even (RUB -19m) versus a RUB -397m loss in H2 2024. This suggests improved cost discipline and operating leverage, although segment-level details were not provided.

Key figures

Outlook

The sharp deceleration in H2 2025 revenue growth raises questions about the sustainability of the company's growth trajectory. However, the narrowing net loss suggests that the company is moving toward profitability. Investors should watch for any guidance on revenue growth and margin improvement in the coming quarters, as well as the impact of the net debt increase on financial flexibility.

X5 Retail Group reported Q1 2026 revenue of RUB 1,190.6 bn, up 11.3% YoY, a deceleration from the 16.6% growth seen in H2 2025. EBITDA rose 24.9% to RUB 62.4 bn, with margin expanding 57 bp to 5.2%. However, net profit fell 27.6% YoY to RUB 13.3 bn, despite strong operating performance.

Q1 2026 YoY Growth (%)

What drove the result

Revenue growth was driven by net retail sales +10.8% YoY, with selling space expanding 8.0% and LFL growth of 6.1%. X5 Digital continued to outperform, growing 26.6% YoY and contributing 7.5% of consolidated revenue. Gross profit rose 14.8% to RUB 286.9 bn, with margin up 74 bp to 24.1%, reflecting pricing power. The decline in net profit, despite a 31.2% increase in operating profit, points to higher finance costs or tax, though the company did not provide a detailed bridge.

Key figures

Outlook

X5 did not provide new guidance or dividend announcements in this release. The company remains conservative on shareholder returns, with no dividend declared. Investors should watch whether the deceleration in revenue growth continues, and whether the company can sustain margin expansion in a competitive environment. The sharp drop in net profit warrants monitoring of finance costs and tax rates.

The strongest momentum is concentrated in consumer-oriented and technology sectors. OZON's GMV growth of +35.5% and Delimobil's sold minutes of +33.4% indicate robust expansion, while Whoosh's ride count is flat at +0.0%, suggesting stagnation. In retail, X5's net revenue rose +11.2%, but Magnit's LFL-sales growth of 8.7% for FY 2025 points to a slower underlying pace. Among financials, MOEX's total volume surged +29.5% in July 2026, and Europian's new business grew +13.1%, both signaling healthy activity.

Operating momentum, latest reported period (YoY)

Commodity and metals producers show a mixed but generally negative picture. Steel output declined across the board: Severstal -4.1% (Q1 2026), MMK -9.8% (FY 2025), NLMK -2.1% (FY 2025). Norilsk Nickel's nickel production fell -3.2%, and Rusal's aluminum -1.9%. Gold miners diverge: Polyus dropped sharply -15.8%, while UGLD increased +13.2%. In oil and gas, Novatek's gas production was nearly flat at +0.6%. Phosagro's agrochemicals volume of 9.2 mln t for 9M 2025 has no comparable base.

Transport and construction show divergent signals. Aeroflot's passenger count grew only +0.3% in H1 2026, implying near-zero volume growth. Etalon's contract value of 24.7 bln RUB for Q1 2026 lacks a prior-year comparison, making trend assessment impossible. In IT, Astra's shipments of 7.3 bln RUB for H1 2026 also lack a comparable base, while Whoosh's flat rides and Delimobil's strong minutes suggest different dynamics within the same sector.

For upcoming reporting, key focus areas: whether OZON and Delimobil can sustain high growth rates; if Magnit's LFL-sales trajectory improves or decelerates further; the magnitude of steel output declines and any guidance from Severstal, MMK, NLMK; Polyus's ability to reverse the -15.8% gold production drop; and whether Aeroflot's passenger stagnation persists. For companies without comparable bases (Astra, Etalon, Phosagro), the first reported year-ago figures will establish the trend baseline.

Basis reported Q2 2026 revenue of RUB 1,451.4m, up 25.7% YoY, with EBITDA of RUB 684.1m (+19.9% YoY) and net profit of RUB 337.5m (+6.2% YoY). Revenue growth decelerated from 35.8% YoY in Q1 2026, while EBITDA growth accelerated slightly from 18.7% YoY in the prior quarter.

Q2 2026 YoY Growth

Margin Analysis

EBITDA margin for Q2 2026 was 47.1% (684.1/1451.4), down from 49.5% in Q2 2025 (570.8/1154.2) but up from 39.6% in Q1 2026 (424.9/1072.8). Net margin was 23.3% (337.5/1451.4) versus 27.5% in Q2 2025 (317.7/1154.2) and 12.3% in Q1 2026 (132.0/1072.8). The sequential improvement suggests cost control is stabilizing.

Key Figures

Outlook

The deceleration in revenue growth from Q1 to Q2 may signal a normalization after a strong H2 2025, where revenue grew 28.7% YoY. However, EBITDA growth remained resilient, and margins improved sequentially. Watch whether revenue growth stabilizes above 20% in coming quarters and whether net profit growth can catch up with EBITDA growth, as it lagged in Q2.

The operational data for H1 2026 and FY 2025 reveal a mixed picture. In transport and logistics, AFLT passenger traffic grew marginally (+0.3% y/y), while in IT, WUSH trips were flat (+0.0%), but DELI sold minutes surged (+33.4%) and OZON GMV expanded strongly (+35.5%). Financial sector showed robust momentum: MOEX total volume jumped +42.9% y/y in June, and LEAS new business rose +13.1% y/y.

Operating momentum, latest reported period (YoY)