Frontierby eninvs

Language: EN · RU

← Region

Rusal (RUAL) RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
✗Profit falling (-148%)✗Loss-making last FY✗Margins compressing (7%→5%)✗High leverage (9.7x EBITDA)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Metals & Steel

RU_RUAL

Price chart

26.59 RUBDay -3.48%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
26.59 RUB · -3.48%
Market cap
404.0 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-15.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-38.1%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
—
3y avg: 13.5x
P/B (FY)
0.4x
P/E (ann.)
<0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
15.9x
3y avg: 19.1x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
35.7x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
4.0%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+208.8%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
827.7 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK531.4
y/y -15.6%
-11.9
y/y -136.8%
26.4
y/y -7.2%
14.5
y/y -38.1%
-28.9
y/y -216.1%
56.9-117.41970.7
y/y -12.7%
922.2
y/y -19.1%
-3.9%630.3Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK656.9
y/y 27.0%
22.0
y/y -44.9%
28.6
y/y 26.3%
50.6
y/y -19.2%
-7.6
y/y -114.8%
77.6-1.01887.4
y/y -0.1%
949.8
y/y -7.4%
-1.5%572.6Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK629.4
y/y -7.9%
-5.0
y/y -3.8%
28.4
y/y -8.7%
23.4
y/y -11.0%
24.9
y/y 512.0%
82.4-128.52257.4
y/y 16.4%
1140.4
y/y 14.6%
7.0%650.3Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK517.1
y/y 12.6%
39.9
y/y —
22.6
y/y 16.7%
62.6
y/y 271.6%
51.3
y/y 58.2%
-36.6-1.11889.2
y/y -1.5%
1025.8
y/y 1.6%
10.2%540.7Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK683.6
y/y —
-4.8
y/y —
31.1
y/y —
26.3
y/y —
-6.0
y/y —
146.4-98.31939.5
y/y —
995.4
y/y —
2.6%520.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK459.0
y/y —
-2.5
y/y —
19.4
y/y —
16.8
y/y —
32.4
y/y —
18.2-0.51918.6
y/y —
1009.9
y/y —
—560.0Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-12-31

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)511 540
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)243 658
− Cash & equivalents124 896
Net debt630 301

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

0200 000400 000600 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Year-over-year change

-100%0%100%200%300%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-100 000-50 000050 000100 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0200 000400 000600 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY

Profit and cash

Profit runs ahead of cash
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.48x of reported net profit; after capex, -0.47x. Loss years (2025) are left out of the ratio.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.35x-0.23x6.24x0.60x—
accruals, % of assets9.7%7.4%-7.1%1.4%-8.7%
net debt / EBITDA 9.7x · capex 2.2x of depreciation
● In a typical year operating cash flow covered 48% of reported profit (4 profitable years).
● Net debt / EBITDA 9.7x at the last full year.
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodAluminium
млн т		Alumina
млн т		Bauxite
млн т		Aluminium sales
млн т
FY 2025-123.92
−1.9%		6.86
+6.7%		18.45
+16.2%		4.49
+16.0%
FY 2024-123.996.4315.883.87

РУСАЛ, операционные результаты за 2025 г. (rusal.ru, мар. 2026): алюминий 3,918 млн т (-1,9% г/г), глинозём 6,858 млн т (+6,7%), бокситы 18,453 млн т (+16,2%), реализация алюминия и сплавов 4,49 млн т (+16%). 2024 г. восстановлен из заявленных темпов.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Aluminium

Annual production
3.92 Mt
2025

Production, Mt

3.8520233.9920243.922025

Production

YearProduction, Mt
20253.92
−1.8%
20243.99
+3.6%
20233.85

Rusal FY2025 primary aluminium 3.918 Mt (-1.9% YoY). FY2024 3.99 Mt. Bauxite reserves not disclosed as aluminium metal.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −18% (factor 0.82)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Aluminum

Current 3 275spot vs LTM +24%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 84 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.07 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). EV/EBITDA capped at 10x (actual 18.0× distorted by a low-EBITDA year).

Upside (conservative): +209% · spot +393% · 3-yr +25%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.19 trn RUB
EBITDA65.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1.12 trn RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.27 (+27%)
= Spot revenue1.51 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.10 (+10%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.31 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs1.18 trn RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA330.8 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA130.7 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2230.8 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))230.8 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75, capped 10x)10.0x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA2.31 trn RUB
Net debt631.0 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt1.68 trn RUB
Current market cap542.9 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +209%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Aluminum74%3 275.102 641.46+24%+33%+12%
Alumina (Platts)6%347.18388.03-11%-4%+3%
Palladium4%1 342.501 174.67+14%+23%+11%
Nickel3%16 837.6315 373.28+10%+18%+21%
Copper2%14 642.2310 804.34+36%+46%+8%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth +4% vs +0% the year before — a +3.3 pp move. 3-year CAGR +12%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +33% · 2024 +0% · 2025 +4%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~3.8 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)-37 bn RUB
Payout ratio16%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex)16 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)1.21 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-10.1 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price33.90 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)0.000 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
20221.21 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2022 q42022-10-181.21 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 2, last 30 days: 4 (1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 16 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

11.08.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров компании РУСАЛ рекомендовал Внеочередному общему собранию акционеров не объявлять и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 6 месяцев 2026 года. На заседании 10 августа 2026 года 11 из 12 членов совета проголосовали "ЗА" данное решение.
03.04.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
03.04.2026 присвоен кредитный рейтинг долгового инструмента эмитента 'Объединённая Компания «РУСАЛ»' на уровне ruA+. Биржевые облигации имеют номинальную стоимость 1 тыс. юаней каждая, со сроком погашения 1092 дня.
04.08.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
03.08.2026 компания «РУСАЛ» приобрела 2 585 биржевых облигаций серии БО-06 на сумму 30,4 млн. руб. и 19 113 облигаций на сумму 19,1 млн. юаней, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Это событие может существенно повлиять на котировки ценных бумаг компании.
04.08.26BuybackПриобретение лицом права распоряжаться определенным количеством голосов, приходящихся на голосующие акции (доли), составляющие уставный капитал эмитента
Компания 'СУАЛ Партнерс' приобрела право на прямое распоряжение 3 814 908 365 голосами (25,1%) голосующих акций 'РУСАЛ' после приобретения доли участия 22.07.2026. Дата уведомления о праве распоряжения - 03.08.2026.
22.07.26BuybackПриобретение (наступление оснований для приобретения) размещённых эмитентом облигаций
Компания 'РУСАЛ' планирует приобрести свои биржевые облигации по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости с дополнительной выплатой накопленного купонного дохода. Срок оплаты облигаций установлен на 3 августа 2026 года, а период сбора заявок для владельцев облигаций будет с 23 по 29 июля 2026 года.
26.06.26AGM / BoardРешения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров МКПАО «ОК РУСАЛ» 25 июня 2026 года не были объявлены дивиденды по результатам 2025 года, а также утверждены годовые и консолидированные отчеты. Аудитором на 2026 год избрано ООО «Б1 – АУДИТ» с оплатой 235,2 млн. руб. В Совет директоров и Ревизионную комиссию избраны новые члены.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=38288

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Rusal (RUAL) — from primary filings.

RUAL is a Russian aluminum producer, involved in the mining of bauxite and the smelting of aluminum and alumina.

Frequently asked questions

What is Rusal (RUAL)'s EV/EBITDA?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at 15.9x EV/EBITDA.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s P/B ratio?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at a P/B of 0.4x.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Rusal (RUAL)'s ROE is -6.3%.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s market capitalization?
Rusal (RUAL)'s market cap is 404.0 bn RUB.

See also: The Cheapest Stocks in the World (2026): What Value Investing Says About Buying Cheap · global valuation map