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Severstal (CHMF) RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Low leverage (0.1x EBITDA)✗Revenue declining (-14%)✗Profit falling (-79%)✗Margins compressing (28%→19%)✗Pricier than own history (EV/EBITDA 6.6 vs avg 4.6)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Metals & Steel

RU_CHMF

Price chart

686.4 RUBDay 3.31%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
686.4 RUB · 3.31%
Market cap
575.0 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-8.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-39.7%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
10.2x
3y avg: 12.9x
P/B (FY)
1.2x
P/E (ann.)
35.4x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
6.6x
3y avg: 4.6x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
7.1x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
-29.3%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-21.6%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
966.2 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK169.6
y/y -8.6%
10.2
y/y -63.3%
12.9
y/y 21.3%
23.1
y/y -39.7%
4.1
y/y -74.1%
-5.0-14.1891.4
y/y 0.8%
532.6
y/y -0.1%
3.1%77.3Report (PDF)
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK145.3
y/y -18.7%
5.8
y/y -79.6%
11.4
y/y 20.3%
17.2
y/y -54.5%
57.0
y/y 170.5%
-12.6-28.8856.0
y/y -1.4%
528.4
y/y 2.1%
43.2%49.1Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK169.6
y/y -18.8%
10.9
y/y -68.0%
12.7
y/y 19.1%
23.7
y/y -47.3%
-17.7
y/y -153.0%
34.4-105.3853.2
y/y -1.0%
528.3
y/y 6.4%
6.0%7.5Report (PDF)
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK179.1
y/y -18.3%
23.3
y/y -56.0%
11.4
y/y 8.0%
34.7
y/y -45.3%
13.0
y/y -62.1%
42.4-4.2880.7
y/y 1.8%
546.2
y/y 6.7%
3.2%-66.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK185.5
y/y -15.9%
27.7
y/y -45.0%
10.7
y/y 5.6%
38.4
y/y -36.6%
15.7
y/y -55.4%
42.5-20.4884.1
y/y 0.2%
533.2
y/y 6.1%
11.9%-91.2Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK178.7
y/y -1.5%
28.4
y/y -48.2%
9.5
y/y 0.8%
37.9
y/y -41.0%
21.1
y/y -54.9%
5.0-43.6867.9
y/y -17.6%
517.5
y/y -21.5%
16.6%-52.0Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK208.7
y/y 6.5%
34.2
y/y -41.1%
10.7
y/y -12.9%
44.9
y/y -36.2%
33.5
y/y 67.1%
35.6-46.7861.8
y/y -13.3%
496.5
y/y -19.1%
29.7%-70.1Report (PDF)
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK219.1
y/y 13.6%
52.9
y/y -14.0%
10.6
y/y 18.7%
63.5
y/y -9.8%
34.2
y/y -48.0%
67.2-32.0865.5
y/y —
511.7
y/y —
9.0%-112.9Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK220.4
y/y 21.2%
50.3
y/y -12.2%
10.1
y/y 18.6%
60.4
y/y -8.2%
35.1
y/y -44.2%
37.9-21.6882.6
y/y 1.7%
502.7
y/y -4.2%
24.2%-143.2Report (PDF)
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK181.5
y/y 15.2%
54.8
y/y 27.0%
9.4
y/y 7.8%
64.2
y/y 23.8%
46.7
y/y 11.1%
42.6-18.21053.5
y/y 6.0%
659.3
y/y 7.4%
29.3%-238.6Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK196.0
y/y —
58.1
y/y —
12.3
y/y —
70.4
y/y —
20.0
y/y —
42.0-41.2994.1
y/y —
613.8
y/y —
—-317.3Report (PDF)
2023-09-30Q3 2023 (3M)PARTIAL192.9
y/y —
61.5
y/y —
8.9
y/y —
70.4
y/y —
65.9
y/y —
56.3-10.7—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—-183.1Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK181.8
y/y —
57.3
y/y —
8.5
y/y —
65.8
y/y —
63.0
y/y —
45.4-10.4867.7
y/y —
524.7
y/y —
44.3%-153.4Report (PDF)
2023-03-31Q1 2023 (3M)OK157.6
y/y —
43.1
y/y —
8.7
y/y —
51.9
y/y —
42.0
y/y —
35.5-10.3994.1
y/y —
613.8
y/y —
—-119.8Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-09-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)1 859
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)3 759
− Cash & equivalents72 188
Net debt-66 570

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.7x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

050 000100 000150 000200 0002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-60%-40%-20%0%20%2024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-40 000-20 000020 00040 0002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

-300 000-200 000-100 0000100 0002024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.23x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.50x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.15x2.01x0.94x1.23x3.88x
accruals, % of assets-6.9%-15.0%1.2%-3.9%-10.8%
Last twelve months (to 2025-Q3): 3.76x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 0.1x · EBIT covers interest 4.2x · capex 1.8x of depreciation · dividends 1% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodCrude steel
mln t		Pig iron
mln t		Steel products sold
mln t
Q1 2026-032.72
−4.1%		2.89
−0.7%		2.63
−1.2%
Q4 2025-122.76
+2.6%		2.91
+1.7%		2.94
+0.5%
FY 2025-1210.80
+4.0%		11.21
+11.8%		11.24
+3.6%
Q3 2025-092.72
+10.1%		2.69
+12.1%		2.86
+3.2%
Q2 2025-062.50
+7.8%		2.70
+35.0%		2.79
+4.1%
Q1 2025-032.84
−2.1%		2.91
+5.1%		2.66
+7.6%
Q4 2024-122.692.862.92
FY 2024-1210.3810.0310.85
Q3 2024-092.472.402.77
Q2 2024-062.3222.68
Q1 2024-032.902.772.47

Северсталь, операционные результаты по кварталам (severstal.com/rus/ir; metalinfo/smart-lab). Млн т — сталь 2024 Q1 2,90 / Q2 2,32 / Q3 2,47 / Q4 2,69 (год 10,38), 2025 Q1 2,84 / Q2 2,50 / Q3 2,72 / Q4 2,76 (год 10,80); чугун 2024 10,03 → 2025 11,21; продажи 2024 10,85 → 2025 11,24. Q1'25 по чугуну — остаток до годовой суммы. Q1 2026 из последнего релиза.

Key-commodity price — HRC Russia (RUB)

Current 64 125 ₽/тspot vs LTM +6%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 83 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.05 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): -22% · spot -22% · 3-yr +25%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue712.9 bln RUB
EBITDA134.6 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)578.3 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.00 (+0%)
= Spot revenue713.0 bln RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.09 (+9%)
= 3-yr-price revenue774.6 bln RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs607.2 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA105.8 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA167.3 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2136.5 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))105.8 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)4.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA502.5 bln RUB
Net debt7.5 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt495.0 bln RUB
Current market cap631.8 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -22%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
HRC Russia (RUB)56%64 125.0060 657.53+6%+6%+11%
Galvanized coil (RUB)15%92 500.00101 790.25-9%-9%+9%
CRC Russia (RUB)15%69 900.0081 103.87-14%-14%+6%
Welded pipe (RUB)5%62 900.0059 821.63+5%+5%+8%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -14% vs +14% the year before — a -28.0 pp move. 3-year CAGR +1%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +7% · 2024 +14% · 2025 -14%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~1.7 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)-9 bn RUB
Payout ratio72%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 0.1x)-49 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)309.93 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-0.3 pp
= Fair dividend yield13.7%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price664 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)0.000 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
2024309.93 ₽
2021253.42 ₽
2020106.39 ₽
2019121.70 ₽
2018156.37 ₽
2017110.06 ₽
201673.14 ₽
201553.26 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2024 q42024-12-1649.06 ₽
2024 q32024-09-0931.06 ₽
2024 q22024-06-17229.81 ₽
2021 q42021-12-1085.93 ₽
2021 q32021-08-3184.45 ₽
2021 q22021-05-2883.04 ₽
2020 q42020-12-0437.34 ₽
2020 q32020-09-0415.44 ₽
2020 q22020-06-1253.61 ₽
2019 q42019-11-2927.47 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 50% buy — balanced5d: 49% buy — balanced20d: 50% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 5 bid / 3 ask; largest — bid 686.8 (filled ×4.2 of displayed, 129 refills).
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 1 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 452 lots ×155 appearances across 48 price levels.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
11.0850%5/31/131,093
10.0856%0/00/014,747
07.0842%0/00/118,222
06.0843%1/00/119,379
05.0857%0/10/013,590

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 14 (3 positive, 4 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 16 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

17.07.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
ПАО «Северсталь» получило кредитный рейтинг ruААА для своих биржевых облигаций, который был присвоен 17.07.2026. Облигации имеют международный код ISIN RU000A10FPA5 и относятся к серии 002Р.
01.06.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
Общее собрание акционеров ПАО «Северсталь» состоится 29 мая 2026 года. Дивиденды за 2025 год не будут выплачиваться. Аудитором компании назначено АО «Кэпт».
20.07.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
ПАО «Северсталь» опубликует операционные и финансовые результаты за 2-й квартал и 6 месяцев 2026 года 20 июля 2026 года. Влияние на стоимость акций компании ожидается. Акции обыкновенные именные бездокументарные с госрегистрационным номером 1-02-00143-A и ISIN RU0009046510.
21.04.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 2 of 17 funds, ≈6 млн ₽ combined.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестицииПервая3.92%6 млн ₽—30.06.2026
SCFT Технологии будущегоДоверительная3.87%0 млн ₽—30.06.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=30

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Severstal (CHMF) — from primary filings.

CHMF (Severstal) is a Russian vertically integrated steel and mining company that produces a wide range of steel products and also extracts and processes iron ore and coal.

Frequently asked questions

What is Severstal (CHMF)'s P/E ratio?
Severstal (CHMF) trades at a P/E of 10.2x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Severstal (CHMF)'s EV/EBITDA?
Severstal (CHMF) trades at 6.6x EV/EBITDA.
What is Severstal (CHMF)'s P/B ratio?
Severstal (CHMF) trades at a P/B of 1.2x.
What is Severstal (CHMF)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Severstal (CHMF)'s ROE is 3.1%.
What is Severstal (CHMF)'s market capitalization?
Severstal (CHMF)'s market cap is 575.0 bn RUB.

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