Magnit is one of Russia's largest food retailers, operating convenience stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets and pharmacies nationwide with its own logistics and food production.
Sector: Retail
RU_MGNT
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): as the issuer reports it, before IFRS 16 — lease obligations are a cost, not debt, and the EBITDA beside it is on the same basis. Amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | OK | 1887.2 y/y 12.8% | 84.4 y/y 15.6% | 87.3 y/y 11.9% | 171.8 y/y 13.7% | -9.5 y/y -6279.2% | 51.1 | -46.1 | 2131.3 y/y 27.6% | 139.2 y/y -24.3% | -13.2% | 518.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 1836.0 y/y 16.0% | 60.3 y/y -22.8% | 88.3 y/y 12.7% | 148.6 y/y -4.7% | -31.7 y/y -216.1% | 80.8 | -111.9 | 1951.4 y/y 24.8% | 149.8 y/y -17.4% | -18.9% | 496.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 1673.2 y/y 14.6% | 73.0 y/y 11.0% | 78.0 y/y 13.6% | 151.1 y/y 11.9% | 0.2 y/y -99.1% | -35.8 | -74.5 | 1670.0 y/y 19.4% | 184.0 y/y 21.1% | 0.2% | 430.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | OK | 1583.4 y/y 20.4% | 78.1 y/y 14.2% | 78.3 y/y 13.8% | 155.9 y/y 13.6% | 27.3 y/y 10.8% | 126.7 | -104.6 | 1563.9 y/y 9.4% | 181.3 y/y 14.4% | 26.6% | 252.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 1460.1 y/y 18.8% | 65.8 y/y -1.9% | 68.7 y/y 5.1% | 135.1 y/y 2.0% | 17.0 y/y -50.0% | 68.0 | -61.0 | 1398.2 y/y -0.1% | 152.0 y/y -36.8% | 21.9% | 221.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 1315.2 y/y — | 68.4 y/y — | 68.8 y/y — | 137.2 y/y — | 24.7 y/y — | 106.2 | -40.4 | 1429.5 y/y — | 158.5 y/y — | 29.4% | 166.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 1229.5 y/y — | 67.1 y/y — | 65.3 y/y — | 132.4 y/y — | 34.0 y/y — | 36.9 | -26.7 | 1400.1 y/y — | 240.4 y/y — | — | 116.8 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt | 263 252 |
| Long-term debt | 658 865 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 404 092 |
| Net debt | 518 025 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.6x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 3.52x | 8.47x | 2.44x | 4.39x | — |
| accruals, % of assets | -10.0% | -14.9% | -5.9% | -9.6% | -3.9% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
SberIndex — weekly nominal Russian consumer-spending growth (% YoY) from aggregated Sber-card data. The “Продовольственные магазины” category tracks consumer demand in near-real-time and is a leading signal for Magnit. The level is closer to turnover than to revenue, so the spread to the company's own growth is shown below.
Продовольственные магазины latest week (2026-10-17): +4.5% YoY · flat3-wk smooth: +4.5% vs 8-wk avg +4.8% (-0.4 pp)Продовольственные товары: +6.4%All categories: +7.2%
Average growth by quarter, % YoY: * квартал ещё не закончен
3кв 2025 +6.1% | 4кв 2025 +3.5% | 1кв 2026 +3.7% | 2кв 2026 +2.1% | 3кв 2026 +4.9% | 4кв 2026 * +4.5% |
Source: SberIndex, updated 2026-10-22.
Potential discount −30% (factor 0.70)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Value the company creates per year, as a % of market cap
Value created per year: -70.2%
| 1. EBITDA growth (latest quarter YoY, annualised) [EBITDA latest qtr − EBITDA year-ago qtr] × annualisation X (2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30) = (171 758 − 151 075) × 1.86 | 0 |
| 2. Current EV/EBITDA (LTM) (Market cap + Net debt) ÷ EBITDA (LTM) = (123 333 + 518 025) ÷ 320 323 | 2.0x |
| 3. Target multiple (Current EV/EBITDA + 6.5) ÷ 2 = (2.0 + 6.5) ÷ 2 | 4.3x |
| 4. Cash flow (balance method, LTM) Net-debt reduction + dividends + buybacks − equity issuance = -87 425 + 804 + 0 − 0 | -86 621 |
| 5. Value created per year (EBITDA growth × Target multiple + Cash flow − Dilution) ÷ Market cap = (0 × 4.3 + -86 621) ÷ 123 333 | -70.2% |
Amounts in millions of the reporting currency. EBITDA growth is the latest quarter vs the same quarter a year ago, annualised.
Caveats:
Current 2.0x · 3-year 75th pct 2.4x
Group: Retail. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fix Price | Russia | 0.5 | 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Henderson | Russia | 0.1 | 1.8x | 1.8x |
| Magazine Luiza | Brazil | 2.0 | 4.5x | 2.4x |
| Lenta | Russia | 2.5 | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| VseInstrumenti | Russia | 0.5 | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| Woolworths Holdings | South Africa | 2.2 | 3.7x | 2.8x |
| X5 Retail Group | Russia | 6.6 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Beluga | Russia | 0.3 | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| The Foschini Group | South Africa | 1.0 | 5.0x | 3.7x |
| Abrau Durso | Russia | 0.2 | 4.9x | 4.9x |
| Shoprite Holdings | South Africa | 11.2 | 7.0x | 5.2x |
| OKEY | Russia | 0.2 | 5.5x | 5.5x |
| Group median | 3.4x | 2.8x | ||
| Group average | 3.7x | 3.2x | ||
| This company | Russia | 1.5 | 2.0x | 2.0x |
Group median 3.4x as traded, 2.8x adjusted; this company 2.0x — a 29% discount.
Group average 3.7x as traded, 3.2x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 38% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +207% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividends suspended (~2.2 yr without a payout)
The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | -32 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 64% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 1.7x) | -141 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 824.26 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 0.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -10.1 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 7.0% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 1728 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | — |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | — |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
The number is withheld — here is why
Across 6 historical measurements the profit forecast came to a median 1.76 of actual — the model consistently overstates this name's profit. Dividends and IRR run off profit; the number is withheld
The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.
base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.72 trn | 4.15 trn | 4.53 trn | 4.88 trn |
| Revenue growth | — | +11% | +9% | +8% |
| EBITDA | 320.3 bn | 349.1 bn | 372.3 bn | 392.2 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| less D&A | 175.6 bn | 187.4 bn | 197.5 bn | 206.6 bn |
| EBIT | 144.8 bn | 161.7 bn | 174.8 bn | 185.5 bn |
| less net interest | 226.8 bn | 90.0 bn | 80.5 bn | 78.9 bn |
| less tax | 4.7 bn | 17.9 bn | 23.6 bn | 26.6 bn |
| Net profit | -41.3 bn | 53.7 bn | 70.8 bn | 79.9 bn |
| Capex | 158.0 bn | 163.4 bn | 178.3 bn | 192.3 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Free cash flow | -26.1 bn operating cash flow less capex | 46.7 bn | 54.0 bn | 56.6 bn |
| Net debt | 518.0 bn | 596.6 bn | 679.4 bn | 770.3 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.6x | 1.7x | 1.8x | 2.0x |
| Dividend per share | 824 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY +14%; acceleration -3.0pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 100% | +11% · +9% · +8% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 2.00x (1.60x…2.93x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 2.0x, three-year median 2.2x). Re-rating to 2.9x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 7 957 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 78% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 64% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Dividends | suspended — zero in the model |
| Year-3 EBITDA margin target | 8.0% |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | quality multiplier 0.70 — flags: curated; no discount to the exit multiple — it is the market's own and already prices this risk |
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9 | 7% | 0.96x | 100% |
| EBITDA | 9 | 12% | 1.09x | 89% |
| Net profit | 6 | 76% | 1.76x | 0% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 824.26 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 784.99 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 304.19 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 166.78 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 272.88 ₽ | |
| 2017 | 182.92 ₽ | |
| 2016 | 432.79 ₽ | |
| 2015 | 220.97 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 q3 | 2024-07-12 | 412.13 ₽ |
| 2024 q1 | 2024-01-10 | 412.13 ₽ |
| 2021 q4 | 2021-12-29 | 294.37 ₽ |
| 2021 q2 | 2021-06-23 | 245.31 ₽ |
| 2021 q1 | 2021-01-06 | 245.31 ₽ |
| 2020 q2 | 2020-06-17 | 157.00 ₽ |
| 2020 q1 | 2020-01-08 | 147.19 ₽ |
| 2019 q2 | 2019-06-12 | 166.78 ₽ |
| 2018 q4 | 2018-12-19 | 137.38 ₽ |
| 2018 q3 | 2018-07-04 | 135.50 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 45% buy — sellers5d: 48% buy — balanced20d: 49% buy — balanced
No iceberg levels detected last session.
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 2 bid / 5 ask; largest — ask 236 lots ×649 appearances across 33 price levels.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10 | 45% | 0/0 | 2/5 | 7,198 |
| 20.10 | 49% | 0/1 | 1/1 | 7,176 |
| 19.10 | 45% | 2/1 | 1/1 | 13,546 |
| 16.10 | 57% | 1/1 | 0/0 | 6,758 |
| 15.10 | 47% | 0/0 | 1/2 | 7,028 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1, last 30 days: 6 (2 positive, 2 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 6 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 28.08.26 | Material event | ★ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг ПАО «Магнит» объявило операционные и финансовые результаты за 1 полугодие 2026 года. Важные события могут повлиять на стоимость облигаций и акций компании. |
| 22.05.26 | Filing | ★ ▼ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора ПАО «Магнит» присвоен кредитный рейтинг AA+(RU), измененный с AAA(RU) 22 мая 2026 года. Рейтинг касается нескольких серий биржевых облигаций, включая БО-004Р-08 и БО-005Р-05. |
| 22.05.26 | Filing | ★ ▼ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора ПАО «Магнит» присвоен кредитный рейтинг AA+(RU) с прогнозом стабильный, изменившийся с AAA(RU) 22 мая 2026 года. Рейтинг был присвоен Аналитическим Кредитным Рейтинговым Агентством (АКРА). |
| 01.07.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «Магнит» 30.06.2026 избрал новый состав Правления, в который вошли 8 членов. Все 9 членов совета проголосовали «ЗА» без против и воздержавшихся. Один из членов Правления, Мелешина Анна Юрьевна, владеет 0,0016% акций компании. |
| 22.06.26 | AGM / Board | Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО «Магнит» 19 июня 2026 года было принято решение не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 2025 года и оставить чистую прибыль в качестве нераспределенной. Кворум был установлен, все решения были приняты с высоким уровнем одобрения акционеров. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Magnit (MGNT) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Магнит4P09 | 14.1% | 13.3% | 100.00 | +0.06% | 10.4M | 2.5M | 08.2027 |
| Магнит4P08 | 14.8% | 14.95% | 100.89 | +0.02% | 11.2M | 33.3M | 09.2027 |
| Магнит5P04 | float | float | 100.14 | -0.01% | 547K | 3.6M | 11.2027 |
| Магнит5P05 | float | float | 100.02 | -0.15% | 987K | 2.6M | 01.2028 |
| Магнит4P03 | 15.8% | 15.25% | 99.86 | -0.05% | 952K | 52.6M | 02.2028 |
| Магнит6P01 | float | float | 100.02 | -0.22% | 9.8M | 102.1M | 05.2028 |
| Магнит6P02 | float | float | 100.12 | -0.01% | 119K | 45.5M | 09.2028 |
| Магнит4P05 | 16.1% | 15.35% | 99.90 | -0.15% | 7.0M | 4.5M | put 10.2028 |
| Магнит5P06 | float | float | 100.57 | -0.11% | 309K | 48.1M | 05.2029 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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