Each name is modelled from its latest LTM three years forward: revenue from four independent sources (leading related-market prices, company guidance adjusted for its own delivery record, independent market research and the realised pace of acceleration or deceleration), then EBITDA, profit, dividends per policy, debt and an exit value. IRR is the cash flow: price today → three years of dividends → price in three years.
The EBITDA-error column is the point, not a footnote: the model was anchored at every past reporting date with only the data available then and its one-year-ahead forecast compared with the actual. Where the error is wide, the number is withheld.
Accuracy across the book: revenue median error 11%, bias 0.98x, within ±20% in 65% of cases; EBITDA 19%, bias 1.00x, ±20% in 51%; net profit 33%. Observations: 301 / 284 / 338.
Models: 47, published: 36.
| Issuer | IRR | Price in 3 years | Dividends, 3 yrs | Exit multiple | EBITDA error / obs | Checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTKM Telecommunications | +76% +19% … +136% | 182 ₽ +350% | 22.38 ₽ 55% | 2.74x EV/EBITDA | 5% / 15 | ⚠ |
| RNFT Oil & Gas | +75% — … +172% | 466 ₽ +439% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.66x EV/EBITDA | 37% / 9 | ⚠ |
| PRMD Healthcare | +56% +32% … +92% | 1 550 ₽ +280% | 0.000 ₽ — | 6.32x EV/EBITDA | 29% / 6 | ⚠ |
| BELU Retail | +48% -15% … +105% | 587 ₽ +128% | 163 ₽ 63% | 3.02x EV/EBITDA | 11% / 9 | ⚠ |
| VTBR Financial Services | +47% +42% … +70% | 138 ₽ +168% | 17.09 ₽ 33% | 0.40x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| MTSS Telecommunications | +45% +12% … +87% | 371 ₽ +89% | 161 ₽ 82% | 3.55x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 11 | ⚠ |
| SOFL Information Technology | +43% -20% … +94% | 146 ₽ +190% | 0.680 ₽ 1% | 7.70x EV/EBITDA | 41% / 8 | ⚠ |
| X5 Retail | +41% -7% … +89% | 3 280 ₽ +80% | 1 139 ₽ 62% | 2.56x EV/EBITDA | 6% / 7 | ⚠ |
| MRKP Utilities | +40% +7% … +78% | 0.900 ₽ +80% | 0.330 ₽ 66% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 16% / 18 | ✓ |
| OZON Information Technology | +38% +10% … +79% | 7 078 ₽ +164% | 0.000 ₽ — | 3.25x EV/EBITDA | 60% / 5 | ⚠ |
| TGKN Utilities | +38% — … +74% | 0.010 ₽ +164% | 0.000 ₽ | 4.61x EV/EBITDA | 20% / 9 | ⚠ |
| VSEH Retail | +38% +15% … +68% | 118 ₽ +69% | 49.54 ₽ 71% | 1.65x EV/EBITDA | 30% / 7 | ⚠ |
| BANE Oil & Gas | +36% — … +104% | 2 705 ₽ +111% | 351 ₽ 27% | 2.19x EV/EBITDA | 17% / 2 | ⚠ |
| IRAO Utilities | +35% +7% … +67% | 4.45 ₽ +84% | 1.12 ₽ 46% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 15% / 9 | ⚠ |
| T Financial Services | +33% +22% … +55% | 454 ₽ +72% | 134 ₽ 51% | 0.94x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| SBER Financial Services | +31% +19% … +50% | 429 ₽ +50% | 163 ₽ 57% | 0.77x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| DATA Information Technology | +30% +7% … +64% | 175 ₽ +95% | 17.50 ₽ 20% | 5.02x EV/EBITDA | 39% / 5 | ⚠ |
| TRNFP Oil & Gas | +30% +6% … +62% | 1 622 ₽ +58% | 478 ₽ 47% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 34% / 10 | ⚠ |
| NVTK Oil & Gas | +27% -8% … +57% | 1 889 ₽ +77% | 233 ₽ 22% | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 26% / 6 | ⚠ |
| DIAS Information Technology | +25% -3% … +57% | 1 919 ₽ +59% | 352 ₽ 29% | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 11% / 7 | ⚠ |
| MDMG Healthcare | +25% +12% … +48% | 2 232 ₽ +69% | 275 ₽ 21% | 6.75x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 9 | ✓ |
| ROSN Oil & Gas | +24% -59% … +75% | 587 ₽ +57% | 114 ₽ 30% | 3.08x EV/EBITDA | 13% / 7 | ⚠ |
| ASTR Information Technology | +24% -1% … +60% | 377 ₽ +71% | 36.65 ₽ 17% | 5.88x EV/EBITDA | 8% / 9 | ⚠ |
| GAZP Oil & Gas | +23% -7% … +67% | 182 ₽ +88% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.88x EV/EBITDA | 25% / 5 | ⚠ |
| TATN Oil & Gas | +23% -7% … +54% | 911 ₽ +43% | 224 ₽ 35% | 3.01x EV/EBITDA | 8% / 9 | ✓ |
| DOMRF Financial Services | +22% +13% … +39% | 2 827 ₽ +33% | 872 ₽ 41% | 0.80x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| OZPH Healthcare | +16% +0% … +40% | 63.79 ₽ +43% | 4.81 ₽ 11% | 4.44x EV/EBITDA | 9% / 6 | ⚠ |
| BTBR Technology | +16% +3% … +36% | 137 ₽ +8% | 50.22 ₽ 40% | 3.73x EV/EBITDA | 16% / 2 | ⚠ |
| SIBN Oil & Gas | +15% -31% … +59% | 700 ₽ +26% | 135 ₽ 24% | 3.88x EV/EBITDA | 9% / 5 | ✓ |
| YDEX Information Technology | +15% -7% … +46% | 5 296 ₽ +37% | 500 ₽ 13% | 4.97x EV/EBITDA | 32% / 4 | ⚠ |
| NMTP Other | +14% +5% … +30% | 7.48 ₽ +10% | 2.17 ₽ 32% | 2.69x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 6 | ⚠ |
| ENPG Utilities | +5% — … +119% | 378 ₽ +17% | 0.000 ₽ — | 6.39x EV/EBITDA | 46% / 9 | ⚠ |
| IVAT Information Technology | +5% -9% … +26% | 66.15 ₽ -2% | 10.46 ₽ 16% | 3.69x EV/EBITDA | 27% / 5 | ⚠ |
| CNRU Information Technology | +3% -4% … +16% | 524 ₽ -21% | 188 ₽ 28% | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 16% / 5 | ⚠ |
| NLMK Metals & Steel | -13% -26% … +35% | 49.07 ₽ -33% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.69x EV/EBITDA | 19% / 9 | ⚠ |
| AQUA Agriculture & Food | -17% — … +44% | 178 ₽ -46% | 10.15 ₽ 3% | 7.17x EV/EBITDA | 13% / 9 | ⚠ |
| BSPB Financial Services | wide historical miss | — | 168 ₽ 67% | 0.52x P/B | — | ✗ |
| FLOT Transport & Logistics | wide historical miss | — | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.55x EV/EBITDA | 101% / 6 | ✗ |
| LKOH Oil & Gas | wide historical miss | — | 2 511 ₽ 46% | 2.40x EV/EBITDA | 48% / 4 | ✗ |
| MBNK Financial Services | wide historical miss | — | 393 ₽ 42% | 0.40x P/B | — | ✗ |
| MOEX Financial Services | wide historical miss | — | 71.33 ₽ 47% | 1.35x P/B | — | ✗ |
| POSI Information Technology | wide historical miss | — | 0.000 ₽ — | 6.14x EV/EBITDA | 52% / 10 | ✗ |
| RUAL Metals & Steel | modelled equity wiped out | — | 0.000 ₽ — | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 50% / 7 | ✗ |
| SNGS Oil & Gas | no fresh reporting | — | 0.980 ₽ 6% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 1% / 1 | ✗ |
| SVCB Financial Services | wide historical miss | — | 2.36 ₽ 23% | 0.54x P/B | — | ✗ |
| WUSH Information Technology | wide historical miss | — | 0.000 ₽ — | 5.14x EV/EBITDA | 54% / 7 | ✗ |
| ZAYM Financial Services | wide historical miss | — | 48.40 ₽ 37% | 0.94x P/B | — | ✗ |