Surgutneftegas is a major oil and gas producer in Western Siberia with its own refinery in Kirishi and a very large cash position; the company is known for minimal disclosure.
Sector: Oil & Gas
RU_SNGS
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | FY 2025 (12M) | PARTIAL | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | -251.2 y/y -127.2% | — | — | 9096.8 y/y -4.9% | 7942.0 y/y -4.5% | -3.1% | ≈ -196.5 | Evidence |
| 2024-12-31 | FY 2024 (12M) | PARTIAL | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | 923.3 y/y -30.2% | — | — | 9562.0 y/y 18.9% | 8314.1 y/y 17.3% | 12.0% | ≈ -196.5 | Evidence |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 1363.4 y/y — | 297.9 y/y — | 14.3 y/y — | 312.2 y/y — | 480.2 y/y — | 444.8 | -426.0 | 8039.9 y/y — | 7086.7 y/y — | 19.3% | -197.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 939.1 y/y — | 236.2 y/y — | 265.1 y/y — | 501.3 y/y — | 841.9 y/y — | 150.4 | -126.7 | 7409.0 y/y — | 6607.0 y/y — | — | -1409.3 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 64 273 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 1 447 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 262 675 |
| Net debt | -196 955 |
|---|
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
FCF (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 0.41x | 3.95x | 0.17x | 2.16x | 0.45x |
| accruals, % of assets | 9.7% | -5.9% | 10.4% | -5.7% | 9.0% |
Rosstat publishes aggregate pre-tax profit monthly. ХМАО – Югра, добыча нефти и природного газа.
The regional result flipped sign year over year.
Company has not reported this period; last report 12 months 2025.
Point estimate unavailable; showing the historical-share range.
| Period | Cumulative, RUB bn | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 6 months 2026 | 702 | +250% |
| 5 months 2026 | 326 | +162% |
| 4 months 2026 | 397 | +180% |
| 3 months 2026 | 584 | +221% |
| 2 months 2026 | 197 | +170% |
| 1 months 2026 | −39 | −126% |
| 12 months 2025 | 65 | −96% |
| 11 months 2025 | 30 | −99% |
| 10 months 2025 | 48 | −97% |
| 9 months 2025 | 78 | −94% |
| 8 months 2025 | −94 | −109% |
| 7 months 2025 | −158 | −122% |
| 6 months 2025 | −468 | −197% |
| 5 months 2025 | −521 | −171% |
| 4 months 2025 | −496 | −178% |
| 3 months 2025 | −484 | −202% |
| 2 months 2025 | −281 | −170% |
| 1 months 2025 | 154 | +42% |
Correlation 0.98 on YoY changes. Published about 60 days after month end.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Oil & Gas (oil)
| Year | Production, Mt |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 54.70 +1.9% |
| 2024 | 53.70 −4.8% |
| 2023 | 56.40 |
Surgutneftegas FY2025 oil production 54.7 Mt (+1.8% YoY, Interfax citing annual report). FY2024 53.7 Mt.
Potential discount −40% (factor 0.60)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 96spot vs LTM +17%
The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.
USD/RUB: spot 86 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.10 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). Oil & gas upside may be overstated: mineral-extraction tax / export duty rise with price but costs are not re-priced here.
Upside (conservative): +45% · spot +67% · 3-yr +23%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (latest FY, 2023-12-31) | |
| Revenue | 2.30 trn RUB |
| EBITDA | 813.5 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 1.49 trn RUB |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Multiplier — spot | ×1.23 (+23%) |
| = Spot revenue | 2.83 trn RUB |
| Multiplier — 3-yr prices | ×1.06 (+6%) |
| = 3-yr-price revenue | 2.44 trn RUB |
| 3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%) | |
| Cost multiplier | ×1.05 (+5%) |
| = Cash costs | 1.56 trn RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 1.27 trn RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 880.8 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 1.07 trn RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 1.07 trn RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 1.0x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 1.07 trn RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2023-12-31) | -196.5 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 1.27 trn RUB |
| Current market cap | 878.2 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +45%
Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.
| Commodity | Revenue share | Spot | LTM avg | $ vs LTM | RUB vs LTM (FX) | RUB 3-yr (FX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | 80% | 96.28 | 82.25 | +17% | +29% | +8% |
SNGSP upside (via the FX hoard): +19%
Per the charter the pref dividend = 10% of RAS net profit divided by 25% of the charter capital (7.09% of profit over 7.702bn prefs), floored at the ordinary dividend. Profit is driven by FX revaluation, interest income and the oil & gas business. The FY2026 dividend is valued at the historical median forward yield traded from 16 December through month-end in high-dividend years; the OFZ adjustment is monitored but excluded. Macro inputs refresh daily; every new interim statement automatically updates the hoard and replaces the elapsed year with RAS actuals. Production comes from the official ecology report and the FX split from the annual balance sheet (anchor 2025-12-31, FY2025). 9-летняя Urals-модель + факт промежуточной РСБУ + рынок MOEX/автовходы ЦБ/EI1.
| 1 · The FX cash hoard | |
| FX leg (implied by profit sensitivity to USD/RUB) | 3911 bn RUB |
| RUB deposit | 1813 bn RUB |
| Total (balance sheet at 2025-12-31) | 5724 bn RUB |
| USD/RUB in the model · current USDRUBF · 10-min VWAP | 85.55 · 2026-09-07T08:55 |
| USD/RUB in valuation 85.55 vs 2025-12-31 anchor 78.23 | +9.4% |
| December future · reference, not in valuation | SIZ6 86.83 · 10-min VWAP |
| Cross-check CNYRUBF × USD/CNY | 85.58 · gap to spot +0.04% |
| 2 · Hoard profit (this year) | |
| Market/CBR automatic inputs · snapshot 2026-09-07 | updated |
| Interim RAS | latest 2025-06-30; awaiting FY2026 interim |
| FX revaluation of the deposit | 366 bn RUB |
| RUB deposit interest (RUONIA) | 259 bn RUB |
| FX-leg interest | 123 bn RUB |
| Average Urals for FY2026 | 64.0 $/барр. |
| Average USD/RUB · actual through 2026-09-07 + current USDRUBF for the remainder of the year | 80.3 |
| Oil production | 54.7 mmt |
| Ruble oil basket | 2061 bn RUB |
| Oil & gas pre-tax profit | 408 bn RUB |
| = Total pre-tax profit | 1156 bn RUB |
| Tax (25%) | 289 bn RUB |
| = RAS net profit | 867 bn RUB |
| 3 · Expected SNGSP dividend | |
| FY2026 dividend (paid in 2027) | 7.98 ₽ · Yield 19.4% at current price |
| 4 · Fair-yield valuation | |
| Fair dividend yield | 16.3% |
| Fair price = DPS / fair yield | 48.9 ₽ |
| Current SNGSP price | 41.16 ₽ |
Upside = target price ÷ current − 1 = +19%
In the base valuation average FX is automatic: realised YTD plus the current USDRUBF for the remainder of the year. This table shows sensitivity: for each selected point, the remaining-year rate follows a linear path to that value. Analyst curves are separate from Frontier.
| Year-end USD/RUB | Automatic average USD/RUB | Frontier DPS | Finam | PROFIT | Kolobok |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 77.00 | 0.85 ₽ | 0.85 ₽ | — | — |
| 66 | 77.16 | 0.99 ₽ | 0.85 ₽ | — | — |
| 67 | 77.33 | 1.35 ₽ | 0.85 ₽ | — | — |
| 68 | 77.49 | 1.71 ₽ | 1.00 ₽ | — | — |
| 69 | 77.65 | 2.06 ₽ | 1.40 ₽ | — | — |
| 70 | 77.82 | 2.42 ₽ | 1.80 ₽ | — | — |
| 71 | 77.98 | 2.78 ₽ | 2.20 ₽ | — | — |
| 72 | 78.14 | 3.14 ₽ | 2.60 ₽ | — | — |
| 73 | 78.30 | 3.49 ₽ | 3.00 ₽ | — | — |
| 74 | 78.47 | 3.85 ₽ | 3.40 ₽ | — | — |
| 75 | 78.63 | 4.21 ₽ | 3.80 ₽ | — | 3.81 ₽ |
| 76 | 78.79 | 4.57 ₽ | 4.20 ₽ | — | 4.20 ₽ |
| 77 | 78.96 | 4.93 ₽ | 4.60 ₽ | — | 4.60 ₽ |
| 78 | 79.12 | 5.28 ₽ | 5.00 ₽ | — | 4.99 ₽ |
| 79 | 79.28 | 5.64 ₽ | 5.40 ₽ | — | 5.39 ₽ |
| 80 | 79.45 | 6.00 ₽ | 5.80 ₽ | — | 5.78 ₽ |
| 81 | 79.61 | 6.36 ₽ | 6.20 ₽ | — | 6.17 ₽ |
| 82 | 79.77 | 6.71 ₽ | 6.60 ₽ | — | 6.57 ₽ |
| 83 | 79.93 | 7.07 ₽ | 7.00 ₽ | — | 6.96 ₽ |
| 84 | 80.10 | 7.43 ₽ | 7.40 ₽ | — | 7.36 ₽ |
| 85 | 80.26 | 7.79 ₽ | 7.80 ₽ | 7.00 ₽ | 7.75 ₽ |
| 86 | 80.42 | 8.15 ₽ | 8.20 ₽ | 7.35 ₽ | 8.14 ₽ |
| 87 | 80.59 | 8.50 ₽ | 8.60 ₽ | 7.70 ₽ | 8.54 ₽ |
| 88 | 80.75 | 8.86 ₽ | 9.00 ₽ | 8.05 ₽ | 8.93 ₽ |
| 89 | 80.91 | 9.22 ₽ | 9.40 ₽ | 8.40 ₽ | 9.33 ₽ |
| 90 | 81.08 | 9.58 ₽ | 9.80 ₽ | 8.75 ₽ | 9.72 ₽ |
| 91 | 81.24 | 9.93 ₽ | 10.20 ₽ | 9.10 ₽ | 10.11 ₽ |
| 92 | 81.40 | 10.29 ₽ | 10.60 ₽ | 9.45 ₽ | 10.51 ₽ |
| 93 | 81.57 | 10.65 ₽ | 11.00 ₽ | 9.80 ₽ | 10.90 ₽ |
| 94 | 81.73 | 11.01 ₽ | 11.40 ₽ | 10.15 ₽ | 11.30 ₽ |
| 95 | 81.89 | 11.37 ₽ | 11.80 ₽ | 10.50 ₽ | 11.69 ₽ |
| 96 | 82.05 | 11.72 ₽ | 12.20 ₽ | 10.85 ₽ | — |
| 97 | 82.22 | 12.08 ₽ | 12.60 ₽ | 11.20 ₽ | — |
| 98 | 82.38 | 12.44 ₽ | 13.00 ₽ | 11.55 ₽ | — |
| 99 | 82.54 | 12.80 ₽ | 13.40 ₽ | 11.90 ₽ | — |
| 100 | 82.71 | 13.15 ₽ | 13.80 ₽ | 12.25 ₽ | — |
| 101 | 82.87 | 13.51 ₽ | 14.20 ₽ | 12.60 ₽ | — |
| 102 | 83.03 | 13.87 ₽ | 14.60 ₽ | 12.95 ₽ | — |
| 103 | 83.20 | 14.23 ₽ | 15.00 ₽ | 13.30 ₽ | — |
| 104 | 83.36 | 14.59 ₽ | 15.40 ₽ | 13.65 ₽ | — |
| 105 | 83.52 | 14.94 ₽ | 15.80 ₽ | 14.00 ₽ | — |
| Method | Before | After / rationale | Joint price MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Original Frontier | fixed 12.4% | static constant removed | 47.3% |
| Previous Frontier | median + 75% of OFZ move | OFZ retained as a challenger only | 26.2% |
| Current method | — | median daily 16–31 December forward yield | 23.4% |
Dividend-model upside: -48%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | -251 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 2% |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 0.85 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 0.85 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -13.2 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 10.5% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 15.64 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 5.4% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 8.10 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 0.85 RUB/sh · 5.4%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.85 ₽ | |
| 2025 | 0.90 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 0.85 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 0.80 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 0.80 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 0.70 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 0.65 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 0.65 ₽ |
| Period | Ex-date | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q3 | 2026-07-15 | 0.85 ₽ |
| 2025 q3 | 2025-07-16 | 0.90 ₽ |
| 2024 q3 | 2024-07-17 | 0.85 ₽ |
| 2023 q3 | 2023-07-18 | 0.80 ₽ |
| 2022 q3 | 2022-07-18 | 0.80 ₽ |
| 2021 q3 | 2021-07-16 | 0.70 ₽ |
| 2020 q3 | 2020-07-16 | 0.65 ₽ |
| 2019 q3 | 2019-07-16 | 0.65 ₽ |
| 2018 q3 | 2018-07-17 | 0.65 ₽ |
| 2017 q3 | 2017-07-17 | 0.60 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 45% buy — balanced5d: 47% buy — balanced20d: 48% buy — balanced
No iceberg levels detected last session.
No characteristic robot clips detected last session.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.09 | 45% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 6,274 |
| 03.09 | 47% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 7,626 |
| 02.09 | 46% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4,823 |
| 01.09 | 47% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 8,849 |
| 31.08 | 49% | 0/0 | 0/0 | 9,064 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 2 (1 positive), last 30 days: 3 (2 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 20 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 26.06.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента 26 июня 2026 года будет определена дата для владельцев акций ПАО «Сургутнефтегаз», имеющих право на получение дивидендов. Дата, на которую определяются лица, имеющие право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам, установлена на 16 июля 2026 года. |
| 26.06.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На общем собрании акционеров ПАО «Сургутнефтегаз», состоявшемся 26 июня 2026 года, было принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 0,85 руб. на акцию. Также утверждены годовой отчет и финансовая отчетность за 2025 год, назначена аудиторская компания на 2026 год. |
| 15.05.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «Сургутнефтегаз» рекомендовал объявить дивиденды по акциям в размере 0,85 руб. за акцию, направив на это 36,9 млрд. руб. нераспределенной прибыли. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 16 июля 2026 года. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Surgutneftegas (SNGS) — from primary filings.
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