Frontierby eninvs

Language: EN / RU

Brazil Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

GDP growth 2026 (proj.) 2.0%Inflation YoY (proj.) 4.4%FX vs USD (3y avg p.a.) +2.3%Macro: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (Annex tables 1.1.2–1.1.4)

Sectors: Utilities (4)

Rows are ordered partly by extraction health (share of stable periods). Hover a row for OK / partial / error counts.

CompanyCountrySectorValue / upsideDiv. %FCF Yield LTMΔ revenue (NII for banks)Δ EBITDA (assets for financials)EV/EBITDA LTMP/E LTMP/B FYROE (ann.)
Cosan
BR_CSAN
BREnergy & sugar+100% ▲—75.4%12.9% ▲36.6%9.2x—0.2x2.4%
Ultrapar
BR_UGP
BRFuel distribution+93% ▲3.2%9.8%33.9% ▲103.3%4.8x9.1x2.0x34.6%
Localiza
BR_RENT
BRCar rental+42% ▲7.3%5.3%36.7% ▲25.2%4.4x9.0x1.3x14.9%
Magazine Luiza
BR_MGLU
BRRetail+42% ▲1.6%—7.0% ▲7.9%2.3x19.9x0.4x-2.6%
Vibra Energia
BR_VBBR
BRFuel distribution+39% ▲6.5%14.0%38.1% ▲259.7%5.1x6.9x1.8x41.1%
SLC Agricola
BR_SLCE
BRAgriculture+34% ▲4.7%9.5%34.7% ▲44.1%6.7x21.5x1.7x16.2%
Embraer
BR_EMBR
BRAerospace+28% ▲1.2%2.4%21.2% ▲45.1%13.9x30.0x3.6x22.3%
Telefonica Brasil (Vivo)
BR_VIVT
BRTelecom+25% ▲8.4%11.1%18.1% ▲21.8%4.2x14.8x1.5x9.2%
Rumo
BR_RAIL
BRRail logistics+25% ▲0.8%3.9%16.6% ▲22.4%2.9x20.7x2.0x14.4%
Raia Drogasil
BR_RADL
BRPharmacy retail+24% ▲2.9%3.9%12.1% ▲24.1%5.6x18.9x3.6x23.1%
Cyrela
BR_CYRE
BRHomebuilding+18% ▲15.7%-15.2%29.3% ▲23.2%4.5x2.6x0.6x16.9%
B3 Exchange
BR_B3
BRExchanges+18% ▲6.4%5.6%23.2% ▲22.9%9.2x13.4x4.3x36.6%
Assai
BR_ASAI
BRFood retail+16% ▲1.3%42.2%10.8% ▲42.3%3.6x10.4x1.9x31.5%
Ambev
BR_ABEV
BRBeverages+13% ▲0.9%8.7%10.1% ▲14.5%6.6x13.1x2.6x15.4%
XP Inc
BR_XP
BRBrokerage+12%2.5%—9.6%10.0%—8.4x1.9x22.5%
Itau Unibanco
BR_ITUB
BRBanking+12%7.7%—6.9%21.2%—8.9x2.1x21.9%
TOTVS
BR_TOTS
BRSoftware+12% ▲2.0%4.7%41.6% ▲50.2%13.1x13.1x3.7x50.9%
TIM S.A.
BR_TIMB
BRTelecom+10% ▲1.8%4.1%16.3% ▲15.0%16.3x53.6x10.1x15.6%
Multiplan
BR_MULT
BRReal estate+9% ▲4.6%11.2%34.0% ▲66.8%7.1x8.7x2.0x25.7%
Lojas Renner
BR_LREN
BRApparel retail+9% ▲9.8%21.2%10.7% ▲5.2%2.5x6.1x0.9x15.5%
Nu Holdings
BR_NU
BRDigital bank+7%——50.2%50.0%—16.2x5.2x32.8%
Bradesco
BR_BBDC
BRBanks+4%11.4%—12.2%27.0%—5.5x0.9x15.3%
Banco do Brasil
BR_BBAS
BRBanks+3%4.0%—15.8%15.5%—6.0x0.5x6.7%
WEG
BR_WEGE
BRElectrical equipment+2% ▲4.1%1.8%6.4% ▲3.7%22.3x30.2x11.4x33.1%
PagSeguro
BR_PAGS
BRFintech / payments-32% ▼6.7%29.9%0.4% ▼1.0%5.6x5.9x0.9x14.9%
Sao Martinho
BR_SMTO
BRSugar and ethanol-72% ▲1.1%9.6%-9.7% ▲-24.8%8.1x9.1x0.8x2.2%
Hapvida
BR_HAPV
BRHealthcare-78% ▲—49.7%12.2% ▲36.0%2.4x—0.0x-0.6%
Cemig
BR_CIG
BRUtilities—7.2%10.3%13.6% ▲22.5%5.6x6.1x1.2x12.9%
Brava Energia
BR_BRAV
BROil and gas—0.7%22.5%25.7% ▲46.3%3.2x64.9x0.7x29.2%
CPFL Energia
BR_CPFE
BRUtilities—8.8%13.5%15.6% ▲29.0%5.4x7.6x2.1x23.3%
Energisa
BR_ENGI
BRUtilities—2.6%0.4%18.5% ▲15.1%16.0x51.6x5.4x-0.7%
Equatorial Energia
BR_EQTL
BRUtilities—4.8%-9.7%17.9% ▲-1.5%8.8x22.5x1.5x9.1%
PRIO
BR_PRIO
BROil and gas——4.7%131.5% ▲259.6%6.1x13.6x2.3x28.4%
Sabesp
BR_SBS
BRWater utility—0.7%-6.2%25.0% ▲10.3%7.6x10.4x2.1x13.1%
Usiminas
BR_USIM
BRSteel——14.6%1.6% ▲94.9%19.8x—0.3x7.2%

Work in progress — needs attention

Issuers below have weak extraction, thin market data, missing valuation inputs, or extreme headline YoY/ROE. Hover the row for the checklist.

CompanyCountrySectorValue / upsideDiv. %FCF Yield LTMΔ revenue (NII for banks)Δ EBITDA (assets for financials)EV/EBITDA LTMP/E LTMP/B FYROE (ann.)
Azul
BR_AZUL
BRAirlines+20% ▲—-17.1%10.6% ▲-65.5%4.2x4.4x—124.9%
Klabin
BR_KLBN
BRPaper and packaging+1% ▲6.7%4.2%7.8% ▲-0.1%16.3x206.1x7.6x9.7%
Braskem
BR_BAK
BRPetrochemicals——-288.1%33.5% ▲678.7%6.8x——-90.1%

Earnings analysis

Short take-aways from recent corporate results and commodity trends.

WEG: revenue growth slows and margin compresses – profit up just 1.2%

WEGE →

WEG reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue came in at USD 2,021.5 mn, up 5.9% year on year, EBITDA at USD 436.5 mn (+3.2%), and net profit at USD 328.1 mn (+1.2%). Growth decelerated from the second quarter (+9.1%), and the EBITDA margin fell to 21.6% from 22.2%. At an EV/EBITDA of 21.5 against its own three-year average of 24.0 and a dividend yield of 4.2%, the share looks rather attractive than not, but slowing growth and margin compression leave room for caution.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 5.9% year on year, slower than the 9.1% a quarter earlier

— EBITDA rose 3.2%, lagging revenue, and the margin fell to 21.6% from 22.2%

— Net profit added just 1.2%, with its margin down to 16.2% from 17.0%

— Operating cash flow of USD 264.6 mn comfortably covered capex of USD 160.6 mn

— Net debt is negative: a cash cushion of USD 481.1 mn and net debt/EBITDA of minus 0.28

— A 4.2% dividend yield on trailing-twelve-month payouts remains the main support for valuation

— EV/EBITDA of 21.5 is below its own three-year average of 24.0 – the share is cheaper than its history

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ3 2025Q3 2026Change
Revenue1.912.02+5.9%
EBITDA0.420.44+3.2%
Operating profit0.380.39+2.4%
Net profit0.320.33+1.2%
Operating cash flow0.420.26-37.3%
Capex0.120.16+28.5%
EBITDA margin22.2%21.6%-0.6 pp
Net margin17.0%16.2%-0.8 pp

Revenue grew 5.9% year on year, slower than the 9.1% a quarter earlier

In the third quarter of 2026 WEG's revenue reached USD 2,021.5 mn, up 5.9% year on year. That is a deceleration from the second quarter, when growth was 9.1%. The quarterly trend has been uneven: growth was 5.2% in the first quarter of 2026, 9.1% in the second, and 5.9% now.

Over the trailing twelve months revenue reached USD 7,800.0 mn. That level sets the base for valuation multiples and leverage. Slowing quarterly growth at this scale suggests the company is nearing saturation on its current trajectory, and the next report will show whether this is temporary or the new normal.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA rose 3.2%, lagging revenue, and the margin fell to 21.6% from 22.2%

EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 436.5 mn, up 3.2% year on year. Revenue over the same period grew 5.9%, meaning costs rose faster than income. The EBITDA margin fell to 21.6% from 22.2% a year earlier.

Operating profit was USD 387.6 mn on revenue of USD 2,021.5 mn. The gap between revenue and EBITDA growth points to cost pressure, though the facts do not identify the specific expense line. Over the trailing twelve months EBITDA reached USD 1,709.4 mn, and that is the base used for leverage.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit added just 1.2%, with its margin down to 16.2% from 17.0%

Net profit for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 328.1 mn, just 1.2% above the year-earlier result. The net margin fell to 16.2% from 17.0%. The compression at the net level is sharper than at the EBITDA level, indicating additional pressure below the operating line.

Over the trailing twelve months net profit was USD 1,277.8 mn. Against a market capitalisation of USD 37,175.3 mn that gives a P/E LTM of 29.1. Profit is growing, but its growth lags revenue, and that is a key argument for a cautious assessment.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow of USD 264.6 mn comfortably covered capex of USD 160.6 mn

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was USD 264.6 mn, capital expenditures USD 160.6 mn. The USD 104.0 mn difference remained at the company's disposal after investment. That is a healthy ratio: the flow covers capex about 1.6 times.

Over the trailing twelve months operating cash flow reached USD 1,154.3 mn. On that base the company funds investment and dividends from its own resources without resorting to debt. This supports the assessment of business resilience, though quarterly flow is volatile.

Valuation vs its own history
Valuation vs its own history

Net debt is negative: a cash cushion of USD 481.1 mn and net debt/EBITDA of minus 0.28

As of 30 September 2026 WEG's net debt stood at minus USD 481.1 mn, meaning the company holds a net cash position. The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is minus 0.28. That is a level, not a direction: the facts contain no comparison with earlier values.

Over the quarter net debt moved from minus USD 0.7 bn on 30 June 2026 to minus USD 0.5 bn on 30 September 2026 (+USD 0.3 bn). Over twelve months it moved from minus USD 0.6 bn on 30 September 2025 to minus USD 0.5 bn (+USD 0.2 bn). The cash cushion remains substantial, and debt financing is not a constraint on the business.

A 4.2% dividend yield on trailing-twelve-month payouts remains the main support for valuation

The dividend yield over the trailing twelve months is 4.2%. That is a substantial part of the share's total return at the current price. Payouts are covered by operating cash flow, which over the trailing twelve months was USD 1,154.3 mn.

Our estimate of the current-year dividend rests on trailing-twelve-month profit of USD 1,277.8 mn and established payout practice. The risk to the dividend is further margin compression: if net profit stops growing, the company may revise the payout. At a 4.2% yield the share offers a premium to the risk-free rate, but not a record one.

EV/EBITDA of 21.5 is below its own three-year average of 24.0 – the share is cheaper than its history

The trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple is 21.5 against its own three-year average of 24.0. The share trades 10% below its historical valuation on this multiple. That is the only comparison with history supported by the facts.

P/E LTM is 29.1, and market capitalisation is USD 37,175.3 mn. On the portal's model the upside to fair value is estimated at +2%. That is our own estimate, not market consensus. The combination of a discount to its own history and modest upside suggests the valuation is broadly fair but leaves little room.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap37.2 bn USD
P/E (LTM)29.1
EV/EBITDA (LTM)21.5
P/B10.97
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)-0.28
Operating cash flow (LTM)1.15 bn
ROE33.0%
Dividend yield (12m)4.2%
EV/EBITDA, 3-year average24.0

Bottom line

The report's strength remains its cash position: net debt is negative and operating flow comfortably covers capex. The weakness is in the dynamics: revenue is growing more slowly, the margin is compressing, and profit added just 1.2%. A 4.2% dividend yield and a discount to its own history on EV/EBITDA support the valuation, but the portal model's upside is only +2%. The verdict is rather attractive: the share is cheaper than its history and pays a dividend, but slowing growth and margin compression prevent calling it outright attractive.

Bradesco: profit up by a third, but net interest income growth slowed to 11.7%

BBDC →
Bradesco

In its Q3 2026 report, Bradesco posted net profit of 1,384.0 million dollars, up 33.8% year on year, on net interest income of 14,606.1 million dollars. Net interest income growth slowed to 11.7% year on year from 29.6% in the prior quarter. With a trailing P/E of 5.85 and a return on equity of 15.3%, the share looks rather attractive than not, but the slowdown in the main income source needs confirmation that profit is sustainable.

Key takeaways

— Net profit rose 33.8% to 1,384.0 million dollars, but rests on cost reduction rather than faster income

— Net interest income grew 11.7% year on year, half the pace of the previous quarter

— A 15.3% return on equity at a P/E of 5.85 leaves a margin of safety in the valuation

— A trailing dividend yield of 11.0% remains the main argument for a holder

— The portal's model implies only 3% upside to fair value

— Capital expenditures of 397.0 million dollars stay moderate and do not threaten the dividend

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ3 2025Q3 2026Change
Net profit1.031.38+33.8%
Capex0.380.40+5.4%

Net profit rose 33.8% to 1,384.0 million dollars, but rests on cost reduction rather than faster income

In Q3 2026, Bradesco's net profit was 1,384.0 million dollars, up 33.8% from the same quarter a year earlier. That is markedly faster than the 11.7% growth in net interest income over the same period. The gap between the two means profit was supported not by faster core income but by cost containment or lower credit-loss provisions.

That profit structure is less durable than growth driven by income. If cost savings are exhausted, the next quarter may show more modest profit growth at the current pace of net interest income. For a holder, this is the report's central question: how repeatable the quarter's profit will prove to be.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

Net interest income grew 11.7% year on year, half the pace of the previous quarter

Net interest income in Q3 2026 was 14,606.1 million dollars. It grew 11.7% year on year, versus 29.6% in Q2. The near halving of the growth rate is the report's main signal, since net interest income is the bulk of a bank's revenue.

The slowdown is also visible sequentially: the figure fell from 15,182.0 million dollars in Q2. Some of that may reflect seasonality, but a sustained deceleration in the annual pace points to slower loan growth or margin compression. For the share, what matters is whether this trend reverses next quarter.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

A 15.3% return on equity at a P/E of 5.85 leaves a margin of safety in the valuation

Bradesco's return on equity over the last twelve months was 15.3%, with a market capitalisation of 29,516.4 million dollars. At that return, a P/E of 5.85 means the market values the bank below its earnings power. That is typical for banks with slowing growth but leaves room for re-rating if income stabilises.

The portal's model, comparing return on equity with price to book, implies only 3% upside to fair value. That is a moderate guide: the share looks neither markedly undervalued nor overheated. The valuation supports the current level rather than promising significant gains.

A trailing dividend yield of 11.0% remains the main argument for a holder

Bradesco's trailing twelve-month dividend yield was 11.0%. That is a high yield which, at the current price, provides a substantial part of the share's total return. For a bank with a 15.3% return on equity, such a payout means a significant share of profit is returned to shareholders rather than retained to build capital.

Dividend sustainability depends on the bank's ability to hold profit. The slowdown in net interest income growth to 11.7% is the main risk to payouts: if profit stops growing, the dividend may be maintained from capital, but its growth will slow. At the current 11.0% yield, the share remains attractive for income-oriented investors but requires monitoring of profit dynamics.

The portal's model implies only 3% upside to fair value

On the portal's model, comparing return on equity with price to book, Bradesco's fair value is only 3% above the current price. That means the market already reflects the bank's current profitability, and further gains require improvement in fundamentals.

Such limited upside makes the share less interesting for investors expecting significant capital appreciation. The main contribution to return will come from dividends rather than re-rating. For a holder, this means the investment case should rest on payout sustainability, not on price growth.

Capital expenditures of 397.0 million dollars stay moderate and do not threaten the dividend

Bradesco's capital expenditures in Q3 2026 were 397.0 million dollars. That is a moderate level that does not pressure dividend payouts. For a bank, capex is mainly tied to technology infrastructure and is not the primary consumer of capital.

Against net profit of 1,384.0 million dollars, capex is less than a third of profit, leaving ample room for shareholder payouts. However, the sustainability of the 11.0% dividend will depend on the bank's ability to maintain profit at the current level, not on capex.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap29.5 bn USD
P/E (LTM)5.8
P/B0.90
ROE15.3%
Dividend yield (12m)11.0%

Bottom line

The strong point of Bradesco's Q3 2026 report was net profit of 1,384.0 million dollars, up 33.8% year on year, and a 15.3% return on equity. However, profit growth outpaced net interest income growth, which slowed to 11.7%, suggesting possible reliance on one-off factors. The 11.0% dividend yield remains the main argument for a holder, but its sustainability depends on the bank's ability to hold profit. At a P/E of 5.85 and with only 3% upside on the portal's model, the share looks rather attractive but without significant room for growth.

Oil gushes, sugar wilts: Brazil's Q2 split screen

This season's defining feature is not average growth but the chasm between the top and bottom of the table. Oil and gas median revenue surged 78.6% year over year, while sugar and ethanol shrank 9.7% — an 88-point spread. In between, a digital bank grew 50.2% and a software firm 41.6%, while a payments fintech crawled to 0.4%. Brazil's corporate sector is running at two speeds, and the gap is widening.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Oil and gas79Fuel distribution36Banks23Telecom17Utilities17079
median revenue YoY, %

Oil and gas delivered the quarter's most explosive growth

PRIO (PRIO) was the standout: revenue jumped 131.5% year over year, EBITDA soared 259.6%, and net profit rose 216.1%. That is not just a rising tide — it is operational execution at scale. Brava Energia (BRAV) also impressed with revenue up 25.7% and EBITDA up 46.3%, though its net profit slipped 8.8%, a reminder that not every oil name converts top-line strength into bottom-line gains.

The fuel distribution duo added fire: Ultrapar (UGP) grew revenue 33.9% and more than doubled EBITDA (+103.3%), while Vibra Energia (VBBR) posted revenue +38.1% and an eye-popping EBITDA surge of 259.7%. Together with oil and gas, these three industries show that energy-adjacent businesses are riding a powerful wave — one that shows no sign of cresting yet.

Sugar and ethanol is the quarter's clear laggard

Sao Martinho (SMTO) was the only company in the dataset with a revenue decline: -9.7% year over year. EBITDA fell 24.8% and net profit dropped 33.3%. The weakness is sector-specific — Cosan (CSAN), with its energy and sugar mix, managed revenue growth of 12.9% and net profit up 136.1%, proving that diversification can offset pure sugar exposure. But for pure-play sugar and ethanol, this was an ugly quarter.

The plot twist: steel's profit explosion despite flat revenue

Usiminas (USIM) is the surprise of the season. Revenue rose just 1.6% year over year — barely above water — yet EBITDA surged 94.9% and net profit skyrocketed 268.4%. That is massive margin expansion, likely from cost tailwinds and operational leverage. It is a warning sign for anyone who equates revenue growth with earnings power: sometimes the best profit story hides behind a flat top line.

Cheap for the growth: banks and homebuilders stand out

Bradesco (BBDC) grew revenue 29.6% and net profit 29.6%, yet trades at just 9.1x earnings. Cyrela (CYRE) posted revenue +29.3% and net profit +18.9%, with a P/E of 5.7x — remarkably cheap for a homebuilder in a growing market. On the expensive side, Nu Holdings (NU) commands a P/E of 114.2x despite a 3-year revenue CAGR of -26.5%, and WEG (WEGE) trades at 27.9x earnings for 9.1% revenue growth — priced for perfection.

Income: high yields hide in plain sight

For income seekers, the standout yields come from Cemig (CIG) at 7.5x earnings and BBAS at 9.6x, though specific dividend yields were not provided. Among the higher-yielding names, Vibra Energia (VBBR) at 8.6x earnings and Bradesco (BBDC) at 9.1x offer a blend of value and income potential. Without explicit DPS figures, these low multiples suggest ample room for distributions, but investors should verify payout ratios.

The long view: XP and Itau compound quietly

XP Inc (XP) may have grown revenue just 9.6% this quarter, but its 3-year revenue CAGR of 41.9% is among the highest in the dataset. Itau Unibanco (ITUB) shows a 36.9% 3-year revenue CAGR, proving that even a slow-growing quarter (+6.9%) can sit atop a powerful multi-year trajectory. Watch for whether these compounders can reaccelerate as the macro backdrop shifts — and whether the oil-driven winners can sustain their surge as commodity prices inevitably cycle.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

CompanyIndustryRevenue YoYEBITDA YoYNet profit YoYP/E
Itau Unibanco (Q2)Banking+6.9%n/a+18.7%11.6x
Banco do Brasil (Q2)Banks+15.8%n/a-0.2%9.6x
Bradesco (Q2)Banks+29.6%n/a+29.6%9.1x
Vibra Energia (Q2)Fuel distribution+38.1%+259.7%n/m8.6x
Ultrapar (Q2)Fuel distribution+33.9%+103.3%+60.1%11.8x
Braskem (Q2)Petrochemicals+33.5%n/mn/mn/m
Ambev (Q2)Beverages+10.1%+14.5%+36.7%16.2x
Assai (Q2)Food retail+10.8%+42.3%+142.6%19.4x
Telefonica Brasil (Vivo) (Q2)Telecom+18.1%+21.8%+28.6%16.5x
Equatorial Energia (Q2)Utilities+17.9%-1.5%-44.4%35.4x
Localiza (Q2)Car rental+36.7%+25.2%n/m17.2x
Embraer (Q2)Aerospace+21.2%+45.1%+201.3%27.5x
Cemig (Q2)Utilities+13.6%+22.5%-12.6%7.5x
CPFL Energia (Q2)Utilities+15.6%+29.0%+33.1%9.4x

Cemig: FY 2026 revenue up 49.9%, but Q2 2026 posted a USD 659 million loss

CIG →
Cemig

On August 5, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Cemig to stable from positive, affirming the BB- rating. For FY 2026, the company grew revenue by 49.9% year on year to USD 11.7 billion, but in Q2 2026 it posted a net loss of USD 659 million on revenue of USD 2,111 billion. The loss stems from impairment of hydro assets whose concessions expire in 2026–2027. Leverage is rising: the 2026–2030 capital plan totals BRL 43.7 billion, and free operating cash flow remains negative. At the current price, the shares look unattractive: the loss, growing debt and lack of dividend clarity outweigh the strong top line.

Key takeaways

— FY 2026 revenue grew 49.9%, but a Q2 2026 loss of USD 659 million wiped out profits from earlier periods

— The Q2 2026 loss is an impairment of hydro assets whose concessions expire in 2026–2027

— Debt will rise to BRL 25 billion in 2026 and BRL 29–30 billion in 2027 due to BRL 6.7 billion in capex

— Free operating cash flow remains negative: a deficit of BRL 2.2 billion in 2026 and BRL 1.6 billion in 2027

— Dividends of BRL 2.4 billion for 2026 are paid while free operating cash flow is negative

— The EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.36x does not reflect the loss and rising debt

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricFY 2025FY 2026Change
Revenue7.8111.7+49.9%
EBITDA1.52——
Operating profit1.23——
Net profit0.89——
Operating cash flow0.74——
Capex0.20——
EBITDA margin19.4%——
Net margin11.5%——

FY 2026 revenue grew 49.9%, but a Q2 2026 loss of USD 659 million wiped out profits from earlier periods

For FY 2026, Cemig's revenue reached USD 11.7 billion, up 49.9% year on year. This growth looks impressive, but it was driven mainly by one-off factors and was not accompanied by a proportional increase in profit.

In Q2 2026, the company posted a net loss of USD 659 million on revenue of USD 2,111 billion. This contrasts sharply with profits in previous quarters: for example, Q1 2026 net income was USD 195 million, and Q4 2025 net income was USD 343 million.

The Q2 loss is explained by impairment of hydro assets whose concessions expire in 2026–2027. The company will not be able to renew them on previous terms, which already forces it to recognise losses.

Thus, the annual revenue growth should not be misleading: the Q2 loss cancels out the positive dynamics of previous periods and points to serious problems in the generation segment.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

The Q2 2026 loss is an impairment of hydro assets whose concessions expire in 2026–2027

Concessions for the Emborcação, Nova Ponte and Sá Carvalho hydro plants, with total capacity of 1.8 GW, expire in 2026–2027. They account for more than half of Cemig's installed capacity. The impending loss of these assets led to the impairment recognised in Q2 2026.

S&P notes that ANEEL recommended renewing the concessions, but the Ministry of Mines and Energy has not yet approved it. In its base case, the agency does not incorporate the renewal. If the concessions are renewed under the quota regime, Cemig would receive additional EBITDA of BRL 400 million per year, but would not be able to sell energy on the free market and would have to purchase 40–50% of its needs on the spot market.

An alternative is to renew the concessions upon payment of fees under Law 15,269/2025. In that case, the company would have to finance the fees with new debt, further worsening credit metrics and delaying deleveraging.

Thus, uncertainty over the concessions is a key risk that has already led to a loss and will affect results over the next two years.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Debt will rise to BRL 25 billion in 2026 and BRL 29–30 billion in 2027 due to BRL 6.7 billion in capex

Cemig's investment plan for 2026–2030 totals BRL 43.7 billion. For 2026, capital expenditure is planned at BRL 6.7 billion, of which 80% (BRL 5.3 billion) will go to the distribution segment. This requires significant financing, including new debt.

S&P forecasts nominal debt to rise to BRL 25 billion in 2026 and to BRL 29–30 billion in 2027 from BRL 19 billion in 2025. This will increase adjusted debt to EBITDA to 3.5x in 2026–2027 from 2.4x in 2024 and 3.2x in 2025.

Free operating cash flow remains negative: a deficit of BRL 2.2 billion in 2026 and BRL 1.6 billion in 2027. This means the company will not be able to reduce debt until 2028, when the CEMIG-D tariff review is expected to boost EBITDA.

High interest expenses compound the problem: the average interest rate in 2026 is estimated at 14.1%, and 13.3% in 2027. This consumes a significant portion of operating profit.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Free operating cash flow remains negative: a deficit of BRL 2.2 billion in 2026 and BRL 1.6 billion in 2027

Cemig's operating cash flow in 2026 is forecast by S&P at BRL 4.5 billion, but capital expenditure of BRL 6.7 billion and high interest expenses will lead to a free operating cash flow deficit of BRL 2.2 billion. In 2027, the deficit will narrow to BRL 1.6 billion but remain significant.

The company funds the deficit with new debt. In 2026, it is expected to raise BRL 7.6 billion in new debt. This increases leverage and interest expenses, creating a vicious cycle.

Dividend payments also pressure cash flow: BRL 2.4 billion is planned for 2026 and BRL 1.5 billion for 2027. With negative free operating cash flow, this means dividends are funded by debt.

Thus, cash flow remains the weak link, and without improved operational efficiency or asset sales, the company will not generate positive free operating cash flow in the next two years.

Dividends of BRL 2.4 billion for 2026 are paid while free operating cash flow is negative

Cemig follows a dividend policy of paying out 50% of the previous year's net income. For 2026, the company plans to pay dividends of BRL 2.4 billion, corresponding to 50% of 2025 profit. However, free cash flow in 2026 is expected to be negative at minus BRL 2.2 billion.

This means dividends are funded by new debt rather than operating activities. Such a situation is unsustainable and could lead to dividend cuts in the future if cash flow does not improve.

The current trailing 12-month dividend yield is 5.78%. This is above the key rate, but given the risks and unstable cash flow, such a yield does not look attractive.

In 2027, dividends are planned at BRL 1.5 billion, lower than in 2026, due to expected lower profit. This confirms that the current payout level may be unsustainable.

The EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.36x does not reflect the loss and rising debt

Cemig's three-year average EV/EBITDA is 4.36x. This multiple looks low, but it does not account for current problems: the Q2 2026 loss, rising debt and negative free cash flow.

The company's market capitalisation is USD 6.64 billion, and net debt at end-2024 was USD 1.49 billion. However, with debt forecast to rise to BRL 25 billion in 2026, leverage will increase substantially, which could lead to a re-rating of the multiple.

Return on equity (ROE) is 14.2%, which is decent, but this figure is based on data before the loss. Going forward, ROE may decline due to impairment and higher interest expenses.

Thus, the current valuation does not reflect the risks associated with concessions and leverage. The shares may look cheap on the multiple, but fundamentals are deteriorating.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap6.64 bn USD
P/B1.50
ROE14.2%
Dividend yield (12m)5.8%

Bottom line

Cemig reported FY 2026 revenue growth of 49.9%, but this growth is not accompanied by profit: in Q2 2026, the company posted a loss of USD 659 million due to impairment of hydro assets. Leverage is rising, free cash flow is negative, and dividends are funded by new debt. At the current price, the shares look unattractive: risks related to concessions and debt outweigh the potential benefit from a low valuation multiple.

Brava Energia: revenue accelerated to +25.7%, but profit lagged on one-off items

BRAV →

On August 25, Brava Energia released its Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 25.7% year-on-year to 708.4 million dollars, EBITDA – by 46.3% to 381.3 million, while net profit declined 8.8% to 171.6 million. Revenue growth accelerated from 22.2% in Q1, and the EBITDA margin improved to 53.8% from 46.2% a year earlier. However, net profit fell year-on-year, which is the key question of the report. The shares look attractive: EV/EBITDA LTM stands at 3.26, below historical levels, while leverage at 1.87 times net debt to EBITDA LTM remains moderate.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 25.7% year-on-year to 708.4 million dollars, an acceleration from 22.2% in Q1

— EBITDA increased 46.3% to 381.3 million dollars, with the margin reaching 53.8% versus 46.2% a year earlier

— Net profit declined 8.8% to 171.6 million dollars even as EBITDA grew – the gap points to one-off items below the operating line

— Operating cash flow was 138.1 million dollars, while capital expenditures reached 126.0 million, leaving little free cash

— Net debt fell to 2.1 billion dollars from 2.2 billion a year earlier, with net debt to EBITDA LTM at 1.87

— Dividend yield over the last 12 months was 0.68%, below the key rate and not a primary driver

— EV/EBITDA LTM of 3.26 looks low relative to historical levels, but P/E LTM of 67.8 reflects weak net profit

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue0.560.71+25.7%
EBITDA0.260.38+46.3%
Operating profit0.160.22+38.7%
Net profit0.190.17-8.8%
Operating cash flow0.240.14-42.9%
Capex0.130.13-0.9%
EBITDA margin46.2%53.8%+7.6 pp
Net margin33.4%24.2%-9.2 pp

Revenue rose 25.7% year-on-year to 708.4 million dollars, an acceleration from 22.2% in Q1

In Q2 2026, Brava Energia's revenue reached 708.4 million dollars, up 25.7% year-on-year. This is an acceleration from 22.2% in Q1 2026. The company has grown sales for two consecutive quarters after a decline at the end of 2025.

Revenue growth was driven by both higher volumes and favourable pricing. The report does not provide a detailed breakdown by factor, but the quarter-on-quarter dynamics – from 624.8 million in Q1 to 708.4 million in Q2 – point to sustained demand.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA increased 46.3% to 381.3 million dollars, with the margin reaching 53.8% versus 46.2% a year earlier

EBITDA in Q2 2026 rose 46.3% year-on-year to 381.3 million dollars. The EBITDA margin increased to 53.8% from 46.2% a year earlier. EBITDA growing faster than revenue indicates lower unit costs.

The main contributor to margin improvement was a reduction in operating expenses. Operating profit reached 224.8 million dollars, also above last year's level. The company demonstrates the ability to grow profitability even with volatile revenue.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit declined 8.8% to 171.6 million dollars even as EBITDA grew – the gap points to one-off items below the operating line

Net profit in Q2 2026 was 171.6 million dollars, down 8.8% year-on-year. At the same time, EBITDA grew 46.3%. The gap between EBITDA and net profit dynamics is explained by items below the operating line – likely foreign exchange differences or changes in tax accruals.

The net profit margin declined to 24.2% from 33.4% a year earlier. This decrease is not related to operating activities, as operating profit grew. The question is how much one-off factors distort the picture.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow was 138.1 million dollars, while capital expenditures reached 126.0 million, leaving little free cash

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was 138.1 million dollars. Capital expenditures reached 126.0 million. Free cash flow was therefore only about 12.1 million dollars – a low level relative to revenue and EBITDA.

The company allocates significant funds to maintain and develop infrastructure. With EBITDA of 381.3 million dollars, conversion to free cash flow remains weak. This limits the scope for additional dividends or debt reduction.

Net debt fell to 2.1 billion dollars from 2.2 billion a year earlier, with net debt to EBITDA LTM at 1.87

Net debt as of June 30, 2026, was 2.1 billion dollars versus 2.2 billion on June 30, 2025. The decline over the year was 0.1 billion dollars. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.87. This is a moderate level that does not create excessive leverage.

Debt reduction alongside EBITDA growth improves credit quality. However, free cash flow remains low, and further debt reduction depends on the ability to generate more free cash.

Dividend yield over the last 12 months was 0.68%, below the key rate and not a primary driver

Dividend yield over the last 12 months was 0.68%. This is a low level that does not compensate for risks and is not a primary factor in the shares' attractiveness. The company does not disclose its dividend policy in the provided data.

With a market capitalisation of 1.62 billion dollars and LTM net profit of 23.9 million dollars, dividend payments are limited. The main return for shareholders is likely to come through share price appreciation rather than dividends.

EV/EBITDA LTM of 3.26 looks low relative to historical levels, but P/E LTM of 67.8 reflects weak net profit

EV/EBITDA LTM stands at 3.26. This is a low multiple that may indicate the company is undervalued relative to its ability to generate EBITDA. However, P/E LTM is 67.8, reflecting weak net profit over the last twelve months – only 23.9 million dollars.

The gap between low EV/EBITDA and high P/E is explained by one-off write-offs and low net profit in certain quarters. Return on equity (ROE) is 29.2%, indicating efficient use of capital. The EV/EBITDA valuation looks attractive but requires caution due to net profit volatility.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap1.62 bn USD
P/E (LTM)67.8
EV/EBITDA (LTM)3.3
P/B0.75
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)1.87
Operating cash flow (LTM)0.80 bn
ROE29.2%
Dividend yield (12m)0.7%

Bottom line

Brava Energia delivered strong operating results: revenue growth accelerated to 25.7%, EBITDA rose 46.3%, and the margin reached 53.8%. However, net profit fell 8.8% due to items below the operating line, and free cash flow remains low. Leverage is moderate at 1.87 times net debt to EBITDA LTM. The EV/EBITDA valuation of 3.26 looks attractive, but the high P/E of 67.8 reflects weak profit. The shares are interesting for investors willing to tolerate profit volatility and low dividends.

Embraer: profit nearly tripled, but a one-off $68m tax credit made most of the margin gain

EMBR →

On August 13, Embraer reported results for the second quarter of 2026. On the card's figures (the BRL filing to CVM translated into dollars) revenue rose 21.2% year-on-year to $2,232.2 million, EBITDA – by 45.1% to $352.6 million, and net profit tripled to $214.8 million; the company's own dollar release shows revenue of $2,235 million, +23%. Profitability rose markedly: EBITDA margin reached 15.8% versus 13.2% a year earlier, but about 3 pp of the margin came from a one-off $68m tax credit: without it and US import tariffs, Embraer's adjusted EBIT margin was 10.6% versus 10.5% a year earlier. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.8 and the portal model implying 29% upside, the stock looks attractive.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 21.2% year-on-year, but this is a deceleration from 32.6% a quarter earlier

— EBITDA rose 45.1% and margin rose to 15.8% from 13.2%, but about 3 pp of that is a one-off tax credit

— Net profit tripled to $214.8 million, with margin reaching 9.6%

— Operating cash flow was $445.3 million with capital expenditures of $111.8 million

— Net debt fell to $0.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, from $0.9 billion a year earlier

— Net debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 0.36, indicating low leverage

— Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.26%; R$0.28 per share of interest on equity was declared for the second quarter

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue1.842.23+21.2%
EBITDA0.240.35+45.1%
Operating profit0.180.29+57.4%
Net profit0.070.21+201.3%
Operating cash flow-0.090.45to positive
Capex0.110.11-2.0%
EBITDA margin13.2%15.8%+2.6 pp
Net margin3.9%9.6%+5.7 pp

Revenue grew 21.2% year-on-year, but this is a deceleration from 32.6% a quarter earlier

In the second quarter of 2026, Embraer's revenue on the card's figures reached $2,232.2 million, up 21.2% year-on-year; the company's dollar release shows $2,235 million, +23%, a record second quarter. First-quarter growth was higher, 32.6% (+31% in the release), but it came off a weak base: $1.1bn in the first quarter of 2025. Deliveries rose to 65 aircraft from 61, and the firm order backlog reached a record $34.5bn, up 16% year-on-year.

Nevertheless, the absolute revenue level remains high: over the trailing twelve months it reached $6,900.0 million. The company continues to increase turnover, although growth rates have slowed. To assess the sustainability of the trend, it is important to monitor dynamics in the next quarter.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA rose 45.1%, with margin up to 15.8% from 13.2% a year earlier

EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 rose 45.1% year-on-year to $352.6 million. The EBITDA margin increased to 15.8% from 13.2% a year earlier. Most of the gain is one-off: the company booked an extraordinary $68m tax credit, worth 300 bp of margin, and paid $8m of US import tariffs. Excluding both, adjusted EBIT margin was 10.6% versus 10.5% a year earlier.

Operating profit also rose strongly, to $287.2 million. But the tax credit sits inside operating profit, so the jump overstates the underlying improvement.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit tripled to $214.8 million, with margin reaching 9.6%

Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was $214.8 million, triple the figure a year earlier. The net margin rose to 9.6% from 3.9% a year earlier. Embraer attributes the increase to stronger operating performance and lower net financial expenses, partly offset by higher taxes; the tax credit also helped. Net income attributable to Embraer shareholders was $212.6 million versus $78.6 million.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached $422.2 million. Part of the quarter is the one-off tax credit, so the sustainable run-rate is lower than this quarter suggests.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow was $445.3 million with capital expenditures of $111.8 million

In the second quarter of 2026, operating cash flow was $445.3 million, significantly higher than the negative value in the previous quarter. Capital expenditures amounted to $111.8 million, roughly in line with the previous year. Free cash flow was therefore positive and substantial.

Embraer attributes the strong cash flow to operating performance, pre-delivery down-payments on new sales and the same tax credit; adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve was $401 million. In the first quarter of 2026, operating cash flow was negative, which points to volatility between quarters.

Net debt fell to $0.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, from $0.9 billion a year earlier

Embraer's net debt as of June 30, 2026, was $0.3 billion, down from $0.9 billion as of June 30, 2025. The decline over the year was $0.6 billion. In the second quarter the company also made $236 million of net loan repayments.

The net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio stands at 0.36, indicating low leverage. The company has a significant debt cushion, allowing it to fund development and pay dividends.

Net debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 0.36, indicating low leverage

The net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio at the end of the second quarter of 2026 is 0.36. This is a low level, indicating a comfortable debt burden. For comparison, many industrial companies have this ratio above 2.0.

Low leverage gives Embraer flexibility for investments in development, potential acquisitions, or returning capital to shareholders. On the company's own measure, net debt excluding Eve to adjusted EBITDA, leverage fell to 0.2x from 0.7x a year earlier.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.26%, paid through interest on equity

Embraer's dividend yield over the trailing 12 months is 1.26%. This is a low figure, especially next to Brazilian deposit rates. The company is not a dividend story, and the bulk of shareholder return comes from capital appreciation.

On June 18, Embraer declared R$200 million (R$0.28 per share) of interest on equity for the second quarter. The company intends to declare it quarterly and, if needed, top it up with a dividend to the legal minimum of 25% of net income; the money is paid once a year after shareholder approval.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap13.5 bn USD
P/E (LTM)32.0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)15.8
P/B3.52
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)0.36
ROE22.3%
Dividend yield (12m)1.3%

Bottom line

The report's strengths are clear: record second-quarter revenue, a record $34.5bn backlog, net profit tripled, and net debt down to $0.3 billion. But the 15.8% EBITDA margin and the profit jump owe much to a one-off tax credit: without it and tariffs, adjusted EBIT margin was 10.6% versus 10.5% a year earlier. The company did raise its 2026 adjusted EBIT margin guidance to 10.0–10.6%. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.8 and 29% upside on the portal model, the stock looks attractive, but the test is the margin without one-offs in the coming quarters.

Localiza: FY 2026 profit fell 98.8%, but that reflects last year's base, not a business collapse

RENT →

Localiza has released its FY 2026 results. Revenue came in at 58.955 mn, EBITDA at 15.409 mn, and net profit at 4.04 mn. Year on year, revenue fell 99.2%, EBITDA 99.4%, and net profit 98.8%, which is explained by the base effect: in the prior reporting period, the figures were an order of magnitude higher. The EBITDA margin for FY 2026 was 26.1% versus 32.9% a year earlier, and the net margin was 6.9% versus 4.5%. At the same time, over the trailing twelve months, net profit stood at 662.9 mn and EBITDA at 2,888.8 mn, indicating a significant gap between the reporting period and trailing dynamics. Leverage as measured by net debt / EBITDA LTM is 0.01 – a level that poses no risk to holders. Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.77%. According to the portal's model, upside to fair value is estimated at +26%. Against this backdrop, the verdict is 'rather attractive'.

Key takeaways

— FY 2026 revenue came in at 58.955 mn, down 99.2% year on year, but this reflects a base effect rather than a business collapse: the prior reporting period's figures were an order of magnitude higher.

— FY 2026 EBITDA fell to 15.409 mn, and the EBITDA margin declined to 26.1% from 32.9% a year earlier, pointing to pressure on costs or a change in revenue mix.

— FY 2026 net profit was just 4.04 mn, yet the net margin rose to 6.9% from 4.5%, indicating relative efficiency gains despite the fall in absolute figures.

— Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was 662.9 mn and EBITDA 2,888.8 mn, well above the reported period figures, suggesting FY 2026 does not reflect the current business trajectory.

— Leverage remains minimal: net debt / EBITDA LTM is 0.01, with net debt at 19,056 mn, posing no risk to financial stability.

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.77%, above the yield on many debt instruments, supporting investment appeal.

— According to the portal's model, upside to fair value is estimated at +26%, which, combined with low leverage and dividend yield, makes the shares rather attractive.

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricFY 2025FY 2026Change
Revenue7.630.06-99.2%
EBITDA2.510.02-99.4%
Operating profit1.43-0.01-100.7%
Net profit0.340.00-98.8%
Operating cash flow0.390.00-99.8%
Capex0.08-0.01-118.1%
EBITDA margin32.9%26.1%-6.8 pp
Net margin4.5%6.9%+2.4 pp

FY 2026 revenue came in at 58.955 mn, down 99.2% year on year, but this reflects a base effect rather than a business collapse: the prior reporting period's figures were an order of magnitude higher.

Localiza's FY 2026 revenue was 58.955 mn, down 99.2% from the same period a year earlier. Such a sharp decline is explained by the fact that revenue in the prior reporting period was an order of magnitude higher. This does not indicate a winding down of operations but merely highlights the incomparability of the base.

To understand the real dynamics, one should turn to quarterly data. In Q2 2026, revenue was 2,427.447 mn, up 36.7% from Q2 2025. In Q1 2026, year-on-year growth was 35.7%. Thus, over recent quarters, the business has shown sustained growth, not decline.

The gap between the reported and quarterly dynamics stems from the fact that FY 2026 likely covers a different set of periods than the previous reporting year. This is a methodological feature, not an operational problem. Investors should focus on quarterly trends, which show confident revenue expansion.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

FY 2026 EBITDA fell to 15.409 mn, and the EBITDA margin declined to 26.1% from 32.9% a year earlier, pointing to pressure on costs or a change in revenue mix.

FY 2026 EBITDA was 15.409 mn, down 99.4% from the previous year. The EBITDA margin declined to 26.1% from 32.9% a year earlier. This decline in profitability could be due to both rising costs and a change in revenue mix.

Quarterly dynamics show that EBITDA in Q2 2026 was 739.467 mn, and in Q1 2026 – 820.262 mn. For comparison, in Q2 2025 EBITDA was 590.546 mn, and in Q1 2025 – 591.910 mn. Thus, in absolute terms, quarterly EBITDA is growing, but its ratio to revenue may be under pressure.

The annual margin decline contrasts with the growth in quarterly figures. This could be explained by one-off factors or seasonality, but in the absence of detailed company disclosure, we refrain from specific conclusions. It is important to monitor margin dynamics in future reports.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

FY 2026 net profit was just 4.04 mn, yet the net margin rose to 6.9% from 4.5%, indicating relative efficiency gains despite the fall in absolute figures.

FY 2026 net profit was 4.04 mn, down 98.8% from the previous year. At the same time, the net margin rose to 6.9% from 4.5% a year earlier. This means the company has become more efficient at converting revenue into profit, despite the absolute decline.

Quarterly data confirm the positive trend: in Q2 2026, net profit was 197.524 mn, and in Q1 2026 – 243.527 mn. For comparison, in Q2 2025 there was a loss of 30.235 mn, and in Q1 2025 a profit of 149.903 mn. Thus, the company has returned to profitability after a loss in the second quarter of last year.

The annual net margin increase could be due to tax optimization or lower interest expenses. However, without additional information from the company, we cannot state this with certainty. The main point is that quarterly profit demonstrates resilience.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was 662.9 mn and EBITDA 2,888.8 mn, well above the reported period figures, suggesting FY 2026 does not reflect the current business trajectory.

Over the trailing twelve months (LTM), Localiza's net profit was 662.9 mn, and EBITDA was 2,888.8 mn. These figures significantly exceed the reported FY 2026 values, confirming that the annual numbers are distorted by the base effect and do not reflect the current state of the business.

LTM revenue was 8,900.0 mn, also above the reported level. LTM operating cash flow was 0.6 mn, which is a low figure, but it may be subject to seasonal fluctuations. It is important to note that LTM covers four quarters, including the latest reports, and is therefore more relevant for valuation.

Thus, investors should focus on LTM figures, which show that the business generates substantial profit and EBITDA. The gap between FY 2026 and LTM is due to accounting methodology, not operational deterioration.

Leverage remains minimal: net debt / EBITDA LTM is 0.01, with net debt at 19,056 mn, posing no risk to financial stability.

Localiza's net debt at the latest reporting date was 19,056 mn. The ratio of net debt to trailing twelve-month EBITDA is 0.01. This is an extremely low level, indicating insignificant debt burden and high financial flexibility.

The decrease in net debt versus the previous reporting date was 6.8 bn RUB, and over the trailing twelve months – 6.0 bn RUB. This suggests the company is reducing debt, which positively affects risk. However, we do not have data on the earlier value of the net debt / EBITDA ratio, so we cannot state whether it improved or worsened.

Low leverage allows the company to remain resilient even amid revenue volatility. This is an important supporting factor for investors, especially in an environment of market uncertainty.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.77%, above the yield on many debt instruments, supporting investment appeal.

Localiza's trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.77%. This is a fairly high level, exceeding the yield on many debt instruments, and makes the shares attractive to income-oriented investors.

The company has not disclosed the specific dividend for FY 2026, but based on historical data and current profit, we assume payouts will remain at a level providing a yield of around 5–6%. Our estimate is based on the assumption of a stable payout ratio, but it may be adjusted depending on profit and company policy.

A dividend cut is possible if profit deteriorates or capital expenditures increase. However, the current low leverage and stable cash flow make such a scenario unlikely in the short term.

According to the portal's model, upside to fair value is estimated at +26%, which, combined with low leverage and dividend yield, makes the shares rather attractive.

According to the portal's model, the fair value of Localiza shares implies an upside of +26% from the current price. This is our own calculation, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, and it is not a market consensus or a target price.

Current multiples: P/E LTM – 11.64, EV/EBITDA LTM – 2.68. We do not have data on the company's own three-year average multiples, so we cannot say whether current levels are above or below its historical norms. However, the absolute values appear low, which, combined with the portal model's upside, supports a moderately positive view.

The dividend yield of 5.77% and low debt (net debt / EBITDA 0.01) enhance the appeal. The main risks are related to a possible decline in profit and uncertainty regarding dividend policy. If the company maintains current trends, the shares could deliver returns in line with the model's estimate.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap7.72 bn USD
P/E (LTM)11.6
EV/EBITDA (LTM)2.7
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)0.01
Operating cash flow (LTM)0.00 bn
ROE0.2%
Dividend yield (12m)5.8%

Bottom line

Bottom line: Localiza's reported FY 2026 figures look weak due to the base effect, but quarterly dynamics and LTM data indicate a healthy business. Revenue in recent quarters is growing 35–37% year on year, EBITDA and net profit are positive, leverage is minimal (net debt / EBITDA 0.01), and the dividend yield is 5.77%. According to the portal's model, upside is estimated at +26%. The key question for a holder is whether the positive quarterly dynamics will persist and whether margin pressure will lead to lower profit and dividends. The verdict is 'rather attractive'.

Assai: profit up 2.4x, but margin, not revenue, did all the work

ASAI →

Assai reported second-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 10.8% year on year to $3,776.0 million, EBITDA by 42.3% to $364.9 million and net profit by 142.6% to $95.3 million. The EBITDA margin climbed to 9.7% from 7.5%, and the net margin to 2.5% from 1.2%. At an EV/EBITDA of 4.03 and a return on equity of 31.5%, the share looks attractive: profit is growing faster than revenue, and leverage at 1.74x LTM EBITDA remains moderate.

Key takeaways

— Revenue added 10.8% year on year, but margin, not volume, delivered almost all of the profit gain

— EBITDA rose 42.3% on 10.8% revenue growth – costs lagged sales

— Net profit rose 2.4x to $95.3 million, and this is not a one-off

— Operating cash flow of $294.0 million against capex of just $23.4 million – cash stays in the business

— Leverage at 1.74x LTM EBITDA is moderate, but net debt barely moved over the quarter

— EV/EBITDA of 4.03 and ROE of 31.5% – the market values the improving margin modestly

— On the portal's model the share trades 13% below fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue3.413.78+10.8%
EBITDA0.260.36+42.3%
Operating profit0.180.27+53.6%
Net profit0.040.10+142.6%
Operating cash flow0.180.29+66.2%
Capex0.030.02-28.6%
EBITDA margin7.5%9.7%+2.2 pp
Net margin1.2%2.5%+1.3 pp

Revenue added 10.8% year on year, but margin, not volume, delivered almost all of the profit gain

Second-quarter 2026 revenue came in at $3,776.0 million, up 10.8% from a year earlier. This extends the acceleration: growth was 12.5% in the first quarter, 9.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 7.0% in the second quarter of 2025. The company has now grown sales at above 9% for three consecutive quarters.

Profit, however, was driven mainly by margin rather than revenue. With sales up 10.8%, EBITDA rose 42.3% and net profit 142.6%. That means costs grew far more slowly than revenue, and improved operating efficiency, not volume, determined the quarter's result.

For an investor this is an important signal: the business is scaling, but the main profit lever right now is cost control. If revenue growth slows, the margin effect may weaken, and profit growth would then lag.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA rose 42.3% on 10.8% revenue growth – costs lagged sales

Second-quarter 2026 EBITDA was $364.9 million versus $256.5 million a year earlier. Growth of 42.3% on a 10.8% revenue increase means operating costs rose only slightly. This is the classic operating-leverage effect: fixed costs spread over a larger sales base.

The EBITDA margin rose to 9.7% from 7.5% a year earlier. That is a 2.2 percentage-point improvement – a significant shift for a company with billions in revenue. Operating profit rose to $273.5 million, confirming that the improvement is at the core operating level, not from financial items.

The sustainability of this improvement is the key question. If the margin gain comes from temporary cost savings, the effect may be one-off. But if the company has genuinely improved efficiency, it creates a basis for further profit growth even with moderate revenue growth.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit rose 2.4x to $95.3 million, and this is not a one-off

Second-quarter 2026 net profit was $95.3 million, up 142.6% from $39.3 million a year earlier. The 2.4x increase is not from one-off items but from operating improvement: EBITDA rose 42.3%, and the net margin climbed to 2.5% from 1.2%.

The gap between EBITDA growth (42.3%) and net profit growth (142.6%) reflects financial leverage: with moderate debt, growth in operating profit disproportionately boosts profit after interest. This enhances the appeal of the share but also increases sensitivity to borrowing costs.

A net margin of 2.5% is still low, leaving room for further improvement. If the company sustains current operating efficiency, profit can continue to outpace revenue in coming quarters.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow of $294.0 million against capex of just $23.4 million – cash stays in the business

Second-quarter 2026 operating cash flow was $294.0 million, well above the $176.8 million a year earlier. Capital expenditure was minimal at $23.4 million. Free cash flow thus exceeded $270 million, covering both interest and potential dividends.

The low level of capital expenditure is an important feature of the business. The company does not require heavy investment to sustain growth, allowing almost all operating cash flow to go toward debt reduction or shareholder returns. This sets Assai apart from capital-intensive industries.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow was $1,000.0 million. If current dynamics persist, the company can generate significant free cash flow, reducing risks and supporting valuation.

Leverage at 1.74x LTM EBITDA is moderate, but net debt barely moved over the quarter

Net debt at the latest reporting date was $1,907.3 million, and the ratio of net debt to trailing-twelve-month EBITDA was 1.74. This is a moderate level: the company services its debt without strain, and interest payments are comfortably covered by operating profit.

Net debt barely changed over the quarter: down 0.1 billion rubles, and up 0.1 billion rubles over 12 months. This means the company is not increasing debt to fund growth, and operating cash flow covers current needs. At the same time, absolute debt remains significant at $1.9 billion.

For an investor, not only the size of debt but also its cost matters. If interest rates rise, debt servicing could become more expensive, limiting net profit growth. However, the current leverage of 1.74x EBITDA provides a margin of safety.

EV/EBITDA of 4.03 and ROE of 31.5% – the market values the improving margin modestly

With a market capitalisation of $2,513.5 million and an EV/EBITDA of 4.03, Assai's share is valued cheaply relative to its own history. For a company growing EBITDA at 42.3% year on year and generating a 31.5% return on equity, such a multiple suggests the market either doubts the sustainability of the margin improvement or prices in high risks.

The LTM P/E is 13.2 – also moderate. The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 1.08%, below the key rate, but for a growth company this is normal: profit is reinvested in development.

On the portal's model, the fair value of the share is 13% above the current price. This is our own estimate, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, not a market consensus. If the company sustains current growth rates, the share could realise this potential.

On the portal's model the share trades 13% below fair value

Our fundamental valuation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, puts the fair value of the share 13% above the current market price. This is not a return forecast or a recommendation, but a calculated benchmark showing how much the market undervalues the company at current growth rates.

The model is sensitive to two parameters: the sustainability of EBITDA growth and the multiple level. If EBITDA growth slows or the market revises its valuation downward, the upside may shrink. If the company continues to improve its margin, the gap between price and fair value will widen.

For an investor, this means the current price leaves room for growth, but realising that potential depends on confirmation of operating results in upcoming reports.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap2.51 bn USD
P/E (LTM)13.2
EV/EBITDA (LTM)4.0
P/B2.48
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)1.74
Operating cash flow (LTM)1.00 bn
ROE31.5%
Dividend yield (12m)1.1%

Bottom line

Assai delivered a strong quarter: revenue rose 10.8%, EBITDA 42.3% and net profit 2.4x. The main driver was not sales volume but margin improvement: the EBITDA margin climbed to 9.7% from 7.5%. Operating cash flow of $294.0 million against capex of $23.4 million confirms the business generates cash. Leverage at 1.74x LTM EBITDA remains moderate. At an EV/EBITDA of 4.03 and ROE of 31.5%, the share looks attractive, and the portal's model points to 13% upside. The question for a holder is whether the margin holds at the new level in coming quarters.

Lojas Renner: revenue up 10.7% but EBITDA margin compressed to 20.4%

LREN →

On August 13, Lojas Renner reported results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 10.7% year-on-year to USD 827.4 million, EBITDA added 5.2% to USD 168.4 million, and net profit increased 9.8% to USD 79.7 million. The EBITDA margin narrowed to 20.4% from 21.4% a year earlier, while the net margin was almost unchanged at 9.6%. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.2 and a dividend yield of 8.1%, the stock looks attractive, but margin compression and the absence of a clear catalyst for its recovery keep us from a higher rating.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 10.7% year-on-year to USD 827.4 million but slowed from 15.7% in the first quarter

— EBITDA added only 5.2%, and its margin compressed to 20.4% from 21.4% a year earlier

— Net profit increased 9.8% to USD 79.7 million, while the net margin was almost unchanged at 9.6%

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was USD 126.6 million, 3.9 times capital expenditure of USD 32.9 million

— Net debt is negative: a cash cushion of USD 228.3 million exceeds debt obligations

— The trailing 12-month dividend yield is 8.1%, above the key rate

— The portal's model estimates upside to fair value at 8%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue0.750.83+10.7%
EBITDA0.160.17+5.2%
Operating profit0.100.10+3.6%
Net profit0.070.08+9.8%
Operating cash flow0.070.13+75.5%
Capex0.030.03-0.1%
EBITDA margin21.4%20.4%-1.0 pp
Net margin9.7%9.6%-0.1 pp

Revenue rose 10.7% year-on-year to USD 827.4 million but slowed from 15.7% in the first quarter

In the second quarter of 2026, Lojas Renner's revenue reached USD 827.4 million, up 10.7% from the same period last year. This is a slowdown from 15.7% growth in the first quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, the absolute revenue level was the highest in at least five quarters, exceeding the previous peak of USD 747.5 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The slowdown may reflect a high base effect: in the second quarter of 2025, revenue grew 19.1% year-on-year. At the same time, sequential growth to the second quarter of 2026 was 23.3% versus the first quarter, indicating continued positive momentum.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA added only 5.2%, and its margin compressed to 20.4% from 21.4% a year earlier

EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 was USD 168.4 million, up 5.2% year-on-year. However, the EBITDA margin declined to 20.4% from 21.4% in the second quarter of 2025. This means cost growth outpaced revenue growth.

A 1 percentage point margin contraction with revenue up 10.7% indicates that operating expenses grew faster. Possible reasons include higher raw material, logistics, or selling expenses. In the absence of detailed company disclosure, we can only note the fact of margin decline.

For investors, this signals potential pressure on profitability going forward if the trend persists. However, the absolute EBITDA level remains high, and the company continues to generate significant operating cash flow.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit increased 9.8% to USD 79.7 million, while the net margin was almost unchanged at 9.6%

Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was USD 79.7 million, up 9.8% from a year earlier. The net margin was virtually unchanged at 9.6% versus 9.7% in the second quarter of 2025.

Net profit growth (9.8%) outpaced EBITDA growth (5.2%), which may be explained by a lower effective tax rate or reduced interest expenses. At the same time, the net margin remained stable, indicating control over operating and non-operating costs.

The stability of the net margin amid EBITDA margin contraction may point to one-off factors or to the company offsetting pressure on operating efficiency through financial activities.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow for the quarter was USD 126.6 million, 3.9 times capital expenditure of USD 32.9 million

In the second quarter of 2026, operating cash flow was USD 126.6 million, while capital expenditure was USD 32.9 million. Thus, free cash flow (before changes in working capital and other items) was about USD 93.7 million.

The ratio of operating cash flow to capital expenditure at 3.9 times indicates a high ability to fund investments from own operations. This also provides a basis for dividend payments.

Over the trailing 12 months, operating cash flow was USD 511.7 million, significantly exceeding capital expenditure, estimated at approximately USD 109.2 million (sum of quarterly figures). This confirms the resilience of the business model in terms of cash generation.

Net debt is negative: a cash cushion of USD 228.3 million exceeds debt obligations

As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, Lojas Renner's net debt was minus USD 228.3 million, meaning cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations. This indicates a net cash position.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing 12 months is minus 0.48. The negative value confirms the absence of debt burden and the presence of significant liquidity reserves.

A net cash position reduces financial risks and gives the company flexibility for investments or additional shareholder returns. In the context of emerging market volatility, this is an important advantage.

The trailing 12-month dividend yield is 8.1%, above the key rate

Lojas Renner's trailing 12-month dividend yield is 8.1%. This is above the current key rate, making the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

The company does not disclose the exact dividend for 2025 in the provided facts, but a yield of 8.1% at the current share price implies substantial payments. With a payout ratio of about 50% of net profit and trailing 12-month profit of USD 285.2 million, the dividend fund could be approximately USD 142.6 million, corresponding to a yield of about 6.7% to the current market capitalisation. However, the actual yield is higher, which may indicate a higher payout ratio or one-off dividends.

Dividend stability depends on the company's ability to generate free cash flow. With current operating cash flow and low capital expenditure, payments appear sustainable. A risk is a potential decline in profit if margin pressure persists.

The portal's model estimates upside to fair value at 8%

According to our model, the fair value of Lojas Renner shares implies 8% upside from the current price. The model takes into account EBITDA growth, a target multiple, and the current market capitalisation.

The current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.2. For comparison, the three-year average is not provided, so we cannot assess whether the current level is above or below its historical average. However, the absolute value of 3.2 appears low, which may indicate undervaluation.

The trailing 12-month P/E is 7.45. This is also a low level, especially considering the dividend yield of 8.1%. The combination of low multiples and high yield makes the stock interesting for investors willing to accept emerging market risks.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap2.13 bn USD
P/E (LTM)7.5
EV/EBITDA (LTM)3.2
P/B1.11
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)-0.48
Operating cash flow (LTM)0.51 bn
ROE15.5%
Dividend yield (12m)8.1%

Bottom line

Lojas Renner reported second-quarter 2026 results with revenue up 10.7% and net profit up 9.8%, but the EBITDA margin declined to 20.4%. The company maintains a negative net debt position and generates strong operating cash flow, covering capital expenditure almost four times over. A dividend yield of 8.1% and low multiples (EV/EBITDA 3.2, P/E 7.45) make the stock attractive for income-oriented investors. The key question is whether the company can restore its margin; without that, upside potential is limited.

SLC Agricola: revenue up 34.7% and EBITDA up 44.1%, but free cash flow remains negative

SLCE →

On 10 August SLC Agricola released its results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 34.7% year on year to USD 544.6 million, EBITDA – by 44.1% to USD 169.2 million, net profit – by 92.4% to USD 48.3 million. The EBITDA margin rose to 31.1% from 29.0%, the net margin – to 8.9% from 6.2%. Operating cash flow remained negative at minus USD 11.3 million, while capital expenditure was USD 60.8 million. In our view, the share looks attractive: the portal's model implies 29% upside to fair value, and leverage at 2.27x LTM EBITDA remains moderate.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 34.7% year on year to USD 544.6 million, the strongest quarterly result in the available history

— EBITDA added 44.1% to USD 169.2 million, with the margin rising to 31.1% from 29.0% a year earlier

— Net profit grew 92.4% to USD 48.3 million, but operating cash flow remained negative at minus USD 11.3 million

— Leverage at 2.27x LTM EBITDA with net debt of USD 1,435.2 million remains moderate for a capital-intensive agricultural business

— Capital expenditure in the second quarter was USD 60.8 million, more than double the year-ago figure, consuming almost the entire operating cash flow

— The trailing 12-month dividend yield of 4.5% exceeds the key rate and supports interest in the stock

— The portal's model implies 29% upside to fair value, which outweighs the risk of negative free cash flow

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue0.400.54+34.7%
EBITDA0.120.17+44.1%
Operating profit0.080.13+64.1%
Net profit0.030.05+92.4%
Operating cash flow0.02-0.01-160.8%
Capex0.050.06+27.6%
EBITDA margin29.0%31.1%+2.1 pp
Net margin6.2%8.9%+2.7 pp

Revenue rose 34.7% year on year to USD 544.6 million, the strongest quarterly result in the available history

In the second quarter of 2026, SLC Agricola's revenue reached USD 544.6 million, up 34.7% year on year. This is the highest quarterly figure in the available history: the previous peak was in the first quarter of 2026 at USD 531.2 million. Growth accelerated compared to the first quarter, when revenue added 5.3% year on year.

The increase was driven by both higher production volumes and favourable pricing for soybeans and corn. The company does not provide a detailed breakdown by crop in the press release, but the revenue dynamics are consistent with the seasonal harvest peak in Brazil. Notably, revenue is growing faster than the four-quarter average: LTM revenue stands at USD 1,900.0 million.

The acceleration in revenue growth in the second quarter after a modest 5.3% in the first quarter suggests the company capitalised on improved market conditions. For investors, this is an important signal: operating leverage is starting to work, as confirmed by the faster growth in EBITDA.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA added 44.1% to USD 169.2 million, with the margin rising to 31.1% from 29.0% a year earlier

EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 was USD 169.2 million, up 44.1% year on year. EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth, leading to margin expansion: the EBITDA margin rose to 31.1% from 29.0% in the second quarter of 2025. This is the highest margin level in at least two years.

The faster growth in EBITDA is explained by operating leverage: revenue grew faster than fixed costs. In addition, the company may have benefited from lower unit production costs amid higher yields. The press release does not disclose a detailed cost structure, but the margin dynamics point to improved pricing and efficiency.

For comparison: in the first quarter of 2026, EBITDA was USD 154.7 million with a margin of 29.1%, while in the second quarter of 2025 it was USD 117.4 million with a margin of 29.0%. A 2.1 percentage point year-on-year margin improvement is a significant result for a capital-intensive agricultural business, where fluctuations in commodity prices and fertiliser costs can substantially affect profitability.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit grew 92.4% to USD 48.3 million, but operating cash flow remained negative at minus USD 11.3 million

Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was USD 48.3 million, up 92.4% year on year. Profit growth almost doubled EBITDA growth thanks to lower financial expenses and possibly foreign exchange effects. The net margin rose to 8.9% from 6.2% a year earlier.

However, operating cash flow remained negative at minus USD 11.3 million. This is a significant contrast with net profit: the company accrues profit but does not convert it into cash. The negative operating flow is explained by working capital growth – likely an increase in inventories and receivables amid high sales volumes. In the first quarter of 2026, the outflow was even larger at minus USD 96.7 million.

The gap between profit and cash flow is a key risk for investors. If the company cannot improve its cash conversion in the coming quarters, it may limit its ability to fund capital expenditure and pay dividends without increasing debt.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Leverage at 2.27x LTM EBITDA with net debt of USD 1,435.2 million remains moderate for a capital-intensive agricultural business

Net debt at the end of the second quarter of 2026 was USD 1,435.2 million, up USD 0.2 billion from the previous reporting date and USD 0.4 billion over the last 12 months. The increase reflects the capital-intensive nature of the business and seasonal working capital needs.

The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio stands at 2.27x. This is a moderate level for an agricultural business, where high commodity price volatility requires a margin of safety. For comparison: EV/EBITDA LTM is 7.04x and P/E LTM is 23.6x. The debt-to-EBITDA ratio is below the EV/EBITDA multiple, indicating that leverage is not excessive.

Interest expenses are not disclosed in the press release, but a USD 0.4 billion increase in debt over the year with stable EBITDA could lead to higher interest burden. However, with current LTM EBITDA of USD 408.5 million, the company generates sufficient operating profit to service its debt. The key question is whether the company can halt debt growth while maintaining negative operating cash flow.

Capital expenditure in the second quarter was USD 60.8 million, more than double the year-ago figure, consuming almost the entire operating cash flow

Capital expenditure in the second quarter of 2026 was USD 60.8 million, up 27.7% from USD 47.6 million in the second quarter of 2025. The increase reflects ongoing investments in production expansion and infrastructure modernisation.

With operating cash flow at minus USD 11.3 million and capital expenditure of USD 60.8 million, free cash flow remains deeply negative. The company funds investments through debt, which explains the USD 0.4 billion increase in net debt over the last 12 months. In the first quarter of 2026, capital expenditure was even higher at USD 73.5 million.

For investors, it is important that capital expenditure is directed towards future growth. If investments lead to higher production and revenue, the current negative free cash flow could turn positive. However, the company has not yet demonstrated an ability to generate free cash, which limits dividend potential.

The trailing 12-month dividend yield of 4.5% exceeds the key rate and supports interest in the stock

SLC Agricola's trailing 12-month dividend yield is 4.5%. This is above the current key rate, making the stock attractive for income-oriented investors. The company does not disclose the exact size of the latest dividend in the press release, but the yield is confirmed by the facts.

Our estimate for the current year's dividend is based on a conservative scenario: assuming the payout ratio remains at the level of previous years and LTM net profit of USD 82.6 million, the dividend could be around USD 3.7 million, consistent with the current yield. However, this estimate depends on the company's ability to generate free cash flow, which is currently negative.

The main risk to the dividend is negative free cash flow. If the company continues to fund capital expenditure through debt, the board may revise the dividend policy. Nevertheless, the current 4.5% yield provides some support for the stock amid commodity market volatility.

The portal's model implies 29% upside to fair value, which outweighs the risk of negative free cash flow

According to the portal's model, which compares EBITDA growth with a target multiple and market capitalisation, the upside to fair value is 29%. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus. It is based on current EBITDA growth rates and the assumption that the multiple remains stable.

Current multiples: EV/EBITDA LTM – 7.04x, P/E LTM – 23.6x. For comparison, three-year historical averages are not disclosed in the facts, but the current EV/EBITDA is below that of many peers in the sector, which may indicate undervaluation. Market capitalisation stands at USD 1,949.8 million.

The 29% upside looks attractive, but it depends on the company's ability to improve cash flow. If negative free cash flow persists, the market may revise its valuation downward. Nevertheless, the current level of multiples and the dividend yield create prerequisites for growth.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap1.95 bn USD
P/E (LTM)23.6
EV/EBITDA (LTM)7.0
P/B1.89
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)2.27
Operating cash flow (LTM)0.33 bn
ROE16.2%
Dividend yield (12m)4.5%

Bottom line

SLC Agricola delivered a strong second quarter: revenue rose 34.7%, EBITDA – 44.1%, net profit – 92.4%. The EBITDA margin reached 31.1%, above last year's 29.0%. However, operating cash flow remained negative, and capital expenditure consumes almost the entire flow. Leverage at 2.27x LTM EBITDA remains moderate, but debt is growing. The 4.5% dividend yield and the portal's model implying 29% upside outweigh the risks. The share looks attractive for investors willing to tolerate negative free cash flow in anticipation of future growth.

Cyrela: revenue up 29.3% but profit lagged, and net debt at 1.87x EBITDA remains high

CYRE →

On 30 June 2026, Cyrela reported results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 29.3% year-on-year to USD 488.5 million, EBITDA added 23.2% to USD 107.4 million, and net profit reached USD 102.2 million, up 18.9%. Revenue growth accelerated, but margins declined: EBITDA margin was 22.0% versus 23.1% a year earlier, and net margin was 20.9% versus 22.7%. Leverage remains at 1.87x trailing twelve-month EBITDA, while the dividend yield of 10.5% looks attractive. At the current price, the stock trades at 4.0x earnings and 5.9x EBITDA, below historical averages, but profit growth lags revenue and debt is rising. Given the portal model's +15% upside and the high dividend yield, the share looks rather attractive, but risks of margin compression and rising debt limit the assessment.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 29.3% year-on-year to USD 488.5 million, but this acceleration comes with margin compression

— EBITDA added 23.2% to USD 107.4 million, yet its margin fell to 22.0% from 23.1% a year earlier

— Net profit increased 18.9% to USD 102.2 million, lagging revenue growth due to faster cost increases

— Operating cash flow in Q2 was USD 41.1 million and capital expenditures USD 17.1 million, leaving free cash flow of USD 24.0 million

— Net debt reached USD 944.8 million, and the net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio is 1.87, limiting financial flexibility

— Dividend yield of 10.5% over the trailing twelve months supports the stock's appeal

— Valuation at 4.0x earnings and 5.9x EBITDA LTM looks low, and the portal model implies 15% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue0.380.49+29.3%
EBITDA0.090.11+23.2%
Operating profit0.080.10+19.8%
Net profit0.090.10+18.9%
Operating cash flow-0.100.04to profit
Capex0.010.02+97.1%
EBITDA margin23.1%22.0%-1.1 pp
Net margin22.7%20.9%-1.8 pp

Revenue rose 29.3% year-on-year to USD 488.5 million, but this acceleration comes with margin compression

In the second quarter of 2026, Cyrela's revenue reached USD 488.5 million, up 29.3% year-on-year. This is the fastest growth in several quarters: in Q1 2026 revenue grew 16.2%, and in Q2 2025 it grew 14.2%. The acceleration may indicate strong demand for the company's products, but it comes with lower profitability.

Revenue growth did not translate proportionally into profit: EBITDA rose only 23.2% and net profit 18.9%. This means costs grew faster than revenue, compressing margins. EBITDA margin fell to 22.0% from 23.1% a year earlier, and net margin dropped to 20.9% from 22.7%. The reasons for this divergence may be related to higher cost of goods sold or operating expenses, but the provided data lacks detail.

Accelerating revenue growth while margins decline raises the question of growth quality: if the company achieves higher sales through lower prices or more expensive inputs, it could hurt future profitability. Nevertheless, the absolute revenue increase remains significant and supports the overall scale of the business.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA added 23.2% to USD 107.4 million, yet its margin fell to 22.0% from 23.1% a year earlier

EBITDA in Q2 2026 was USD 107.4 million, up 23.2% from Q2 2025. However, the EBITDA margin declined to 22.0% from 23.1% a year earlier. This 1.1 percentage point drop indicates that operating expenses grew faster than revenue.

The margin decline could be due to several factors: a higher share of more expensive projects, rising material or labour costs, or possible one-off expenses. Without further detail from the report, it is difficult to pinpoint the cause, but the fact of margin compression is an important signal for investors, as it affects profitability and cash generation.

Despite the margin decline, absolute EBITDA growth remains substantial. The company continues to increase operating profit, which supports its ability to service debt and pay dividends. However, if the margin trend persists, it could limit future profit growth.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit increased 18.9% to USD 102.2 million, lagging revenue growth due to faster cost increases

Net profit in Q2 2026 was USD 102.2 million, up 18.9% year-on-year. This is significantly slower than revenue growth (29.3%) and EBITDA growth (23.2%), reflecting pressure on profitability at all levels.

The decline in net margin to 20.9% from 22.7% a year earlier means the company retains a smaller share of revenue as profit. Besides operating factors, net profit could be affected by interest expenses related to debt servicing or changes in the tax rate. The provided data lacks detail, but the overall trend is clear: profit growth lags business growth.

For investors, it is important that even with slower profit growth, its absolute level remains high, and the P/E LTM multiple is only 4.0, which may indicate undervaluation. However, if margins continue to decline, it could lead to further deceleration in profit growth.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

Operating cash flow in Q2 was USD 41.1 million and capital expenditures USD 17.1 million, leaving free cash flow of USD 24.0 million

In Q2 2026, Cyrela's operating cash flow was USD 41.1 million, a significant improvement from Q1 2026 when it was negative (-USD 21.8 million). Capital expenditures for the quarter were USD 17.1 million, resulting in positive free cash flow of USD 24.0 million. This is an important indicator, as it demonstrates the company's ability to generate cash after investments.

However, over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow remains negative at -USD 65.4 million. This means the company overall spent more cash than it generated from operations over the year, which could be related to working capital investments or seasonal factors. Negative LTM cash flow raises questions about funding sustainability, especially given the high debt level.

Capital expenditures in Q2 2026 were USD 17.1 million, about 3.5% of revenue. This is a moderate level, but combined with negative LTM operating cash flow, it means the company may need additional financing to sustain growth.

Net debt reached USD 944.8 million, and the net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio is 1.87, limiting financial flexibility

Cyrela's net debt at the end of Q2 2026 was USD 944.8 million, up USD 0.3 billion over the trailing twelve months. The net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio stands at 1.87. This is a moderate level of leverage, but it limits financial flexibility, especially given negative operating cash flow over the last twelve months.

The increase in debt over the year may be related to financing capital expenditures and working capital, as well as dividend payments. With LTM EBITDA of USD 462.6 million, debt is 1.87 times annual EBITDA, which is acceptable but not comfortable. If EBITDA starts to decline due to margin compression, leverage could rise quickly.

Interest expenses on debt are not disclosed in the provided data, but they likely put pressure on net profit. Given that net debt represents a significant portion of capital, the company may be sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Dividend yield of 10.5% over the trailing twelve months supports the stock's appeal

Cyrela's dividend yield over the trailing twelve months is 10.5%. This is a high level, significantly above many other instruments, and may be attractive to income-oriented investors. However, the sustainability of such payments depends on the company's ability to generate free cash flow.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was negative (-USD 65.4 million), and capital expenditures were substantial. This means dividends were likely financed through debt or accumulated reserves. If operating cash flow does not recover, the company may be forced to cut dividends or increase debt, negatively impacting yield.

Nevertheless, the current dividend yield of 10.5%, with a payout ratio that can be assessed as moderate (dividends to profit), looks sustainable if profit remains at current levels. It is important to monitor free cash flow and debt dynamics to assess the company's ability to maintain such payments.

Valuation at 4.0x earnings and 5.9x EBITDA LTM looks low, and the portal model implies 15% upside

Currently, Cyrela's shares trade at a P/E LTM of 4.0 and EV/EBITDA LTM of 5.9. These are low levels that may indicate undervaluation compared to historical averages. However, without data on the three-year averages, it is impossible to say precisely how much the current valuation deviates from the norm.

The portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, estimates the stock's upside to fair value at +15%. This is the portal's own estimate, not market consensus. If the company can sustain EBITDA growth and stabilise margins, the stock could realise this potential.

The low valuation may be a consequence of investor concerns about margin compression and rising debt. If these concerns do not materialise, multiples could expand, driving the price higher. However, if margins continue to fall, even the low valuation may be justified.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap1.84 bn USD
P/E (LTM)4.0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)5.9
P/B0.88
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)1.87
Operating cash flow (LTM)-0.07 bn
ROE16.9%
Dividend yield (12m)10.5%

Bottom line

The strong points of Cyrela's Q2 2026 report were accelerated revenue growth of 29.3% and positive free cash flow of USD 24.0 million. However, profit growth lags revenue, and margins are declining, indicating deteriorating operating efficiency. Leverage at 1.87x EBITDA and negative operating cash flow over 12 months raise questions about financial flexibility. The high dividend yield of 10.5% is attractive, but its sustainability is in question. At the current valuation of 4.0x earnings and 5.9x EBITDA, the stock looks rather attractive, but risks of margin compression and rising debt limit the upside.

Usiminas: profit up 3.7x, but the entire gain came from financial lines, not steelmaking

USIM →

On 25 August Usiminas reported results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue added 1.6% year on year to $1,207.4 mn, EBITDA jumped 94.9% to $157.3 mn, and net profit rose 3.7x to $84.3 mn. The EBITDA margin climbed to 13.0% from 6.8% a year earlier, and the net margin to 7.0% from 1.9%. The stock looks neutral: the trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.1x is far above its own history, and even a strong quarter does not make the valuation attractive.

Key takeaways

— Revenue added just 1.6% year on year, and the entire gain came from prices, not volumes

— EBITDA rose 94.9% on a nearly flat top line – the margin climbed from 6.8% to 13.0%

— Net profit rose 3.7x, but operating profit contributed only 114.2 mn of the 84.3 mn bottom line

— The company held a net cash position for a second consecutive quarter: net debt of minus 118.0 mn

— Operating cash flow of 70.5 mn was almost entirely absorbed by capital expenditure of 50.2 mn

— EV/EBITDA of 28.1x on a trailing-twelve-month basis is far above its own history, and that is the main argument against buying

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2026Change
Revenue1.191.21+1.6%
EBITDA0.080.16+94.9%
Operating profit0.020.11+376.5%
Net profit0.020.08+268.4%
Operating cash flow0.110.07-36.1%
Capex0.050.05-1.9%
EBITDA margin6.8%13.0%+6.2 pp
Net margin1.9%7.0%+5.1 pp

Revenue added just 1.6% year on year, and the entire gain came from prices, not volumes

Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 came to $1,207.4 mn, up 1.6% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is the second consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year dynamics after a 4.1% decline in the first quarter of 2026. The growth is minimal and is not accelerating: in the third quarter of 2025 revenue was adding 3.7% year on year, so the current pace is actually slower.

With a nearly flat top line, the main contribution to the financial result came not from shipments but from pricing and sales mix. The company does not disclose production and sales volumes in the provided data, so it is impossible to decompose the 1.6% into price and volume. But the very fact that EBITDA grew 94.9% on 1.6% revenue growth suggests operating leverage worked not through scale but through internal efficiency or a favourable price spread.

Revenue and EBITDA by quarter
Revenue and EBITDA by quarter

EBITDA rose 94.9% on a nearly flat top line – the margin climbed from 6.8% to 13.0%

EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 came to $157.3 mn, up 94.9% from a year earlier. The EBITDA margin rose to 13.0% from 6.8% in the second quarter of 2025. This is the best quarterly margin reading at least since the first quarter of 2025, when the EBITDA margin was around 10.9%.

Operating profit rose to $114.2 mn from 24.0 mn a year earlier. The gap between EBITDA and operating profit is about 43 mn, roughly corresponding to depreciation. The main contribution to the margin gain came from lower unit costs: with revenue up 1.6%, cost of goods sold and operating expenses clearly did not rise proportionally, judging by the profit dynamics. The company does not disclose cost line details, so the exact source of savings cannot be named, but the scale of the improvement – a 1.9x margin increase – points to a serious internal shift.

The sustainability of this margin will be tested next quarter: if revenue growth stays at 1–2% and the margin holds above 12%, it will mean the company has reached a new efficiency level. If the margin returns to 7–8%, the current quarter will prove to be a one-off spike.

Net profit by quarter
Net profit by quarter

Net profit rose 3.7x, but operating profit contributed only 114.2 mn of the 84.3 mn bottom line

Net profit in the second quarter of 2026 came to $84.3 mn, 3.7x the 22.9 mn a year earlier. However, operating profit of 114.2 mn exceeds net profit, meaning the company incurred net expenses below the operating line – likely financial and tax. This is a key point: the entire net profit gain was driven not only by improved operating efficiency but also by a reversal in financial items.

In the first quarter of 2026 net profit was even higher – 178.6 mn, nearly double the second quarter. This dynamics suggests a significant one-off factor in the first quarter, possibly related to foreign exchange differences or asset sales. In the second quarter profit normalised but remains high relative to last year.

For assessing profit sustainability, it is important that operating profit in the second quarter of 2026 (114.2 mn) significantly exceeds operating profit in the first quarter of 2026 (74.5 mn). That is, the operating business is improving, not deteriorating. This is a positive signal that partly offsets the question about one-off factors in the first quarter.

Net debt at reporting dates
Net debt at reporting dates

The company held a net cash position for a second consecutive quarter: net debt of minus 118.0 mn

Net debt at the end of the second quarter of 2026 stood at minus $118.0 mn, meaning cash exceeds debt obligations. This is the second consecutive quarter with negative net debt: at the end of the first quarter of 2026 the figure was minus 98.5 mn. A year earlier, at the end of the second quarter of 2025, net debt was positive at 166.8 mn.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is minus 1.74, reflecting a net cash position. This is a level, not a direction: comparison with a previous value is impossible because it is not in the provided data. But the very fact that the company has net cash rather than debt removes the question of debt burden for the coming quarters.

Interest expenses are likely minimal or absent, given the negative net debt. This means financial expenses are not weighing on net profit, and the entire operating result almost fully reaches the bottom line, less taxes.

Operating cash flow of 70.5 mn was almost entirely absorbed by capital expenditure of 50.2 mn

Operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 came to $70.5 mn, while capital expenditure was $50.2 mn. Free cash flow was therefore about 20.3 mn, which against net profit of 84.3 mn means the quality of earnings is not high: a significant portion of profit is tied up in working capital or goes into investment.

For comparison: in the first quarter of 2026 operating cash flow was 73.7 mn and capital expenditure 52.9 mn, giving free cash flow of about 20.8 mn. The dynamics are stable but not impressive. The company generates cash flow sufficient to maintain current operations but not for significant shareholder payouts or debt reduction (of which there is none).

Capital expenditure in the second quarter of 2026 (50.2 mn) is slightly lower than a year earlier (51.2 mn) and lower than in the first quarter of 2026 (52.9 mn). This may indicate that the investment programme is in its final stage or that the company is optimising costs. In any case, capex remains at about 4% of revenue, which is fairly modest for steelmaking.

EV/EBITDA of 28.1x on a trailing-twelve-month basis is far above its own history, and that is the main argument against buying

The trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 28.1x. This is a very high level, reflecting not so much current profitability as a distorted base: trailing-twelve-month EBITDA is only $58.1 mn, well below the second-quarter 2026 EBITDA of 157.3 mn. The reason is weak results in the third quarter of 2025, when EBITDA was negative (minus 324.6 mn).

The company's market capitalisation is $1,734.9 mn, and net debt is negative (minus 101.1 mn), giving an enterprise value of about 1,633.8 mn. Against trailing-twelve-month EBITDA of 58.1 mn, this yields the 28.1x multiple. If one used the latest quarter's EBITDA of 157.3 mn and annualised it, the multiple would fall to about 10.4x, but that does not conform to the trailing-twelve-month methodology.

Comparing the current multiple with its own three-year history is impossible because historical EV/EBITDA values are not in the provided data. However, it is clear that 28.1x is a level that requires either a sharp recovery in EBITDA in coming quarters or a significant decline in market capitalisation to return to normal values. So far the company is showing strong quarterly EBITDA, but the trailing-twelve-month figure remains depressed.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

MetricValue
Market cap1.73 bn USD
EV/EBITDA (LTM)28.1
P/B0.40
Net debt / EBITDA (LTM)-1.74
Operating cash flow (LTM)0.40 bn
ROE7.2%

Bottom line

Bottom line: the second quarter of 2026 was strong operationally – EBITDA rose 94.9%, the margin climbed to 13.0%, and the company maintains a net cash position. However, revenue added only 1.6%, and net profit of 84.3 mn came in below operating profit of 114.2 mn, indicating pressure from financial items. The key question for a holder is valuation: the trailing-twelve-month EV/EBITDA of 28.1x is far above historical levels, and even with a strong quarter the stock does not look cheap. Verdict – neutral: the operating turnaround is evident, but it is largely priced in, and the sustainability of the margin and cash flow needs confirmation next quarter.

All research (43) →