Kazakhstan Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This quarter's earnings season is a brutal split-screen: memory semiconductors and rare earths are posting triple-digit revenue growth, while gas processing and airlines are deep in negative territory. The median revenue growth across industries ranges from +256.8% for memory chips to -34.2% for airlines — a spread of nearly 300 percentage points. The winners are riding an AI and electrification capex boom; the losers are squeezed by margin compression and demand destruction. Nowhere is the divergence starker than in semiconductors: SK hynix revenue up 256.8% year over year, while MediaTek, a fabless chip designer, eked out just +1.2%.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Memory chips and rare earths are the undisputed champions

SK hynix (+256.8% revenue, +420.9% EBITDA) and Samsung Electronics (+130.0% revenue) are the standout players, both riding the AI-driven memory upcycle. Winbond Electronics (+184.7% revenue) and Nanya Technology (revenue n/m) confirm the broad-based strength. In rare earths, Lynas Rare Earths delivered +80.2% revenue and +184.7% EBITDA, capitalising on supply chain diversification away from China. These are not just high-growth; they are high-quality growth, with EBITDA expanding even faster than revenue.

Gas processing and airlines are bleeding

ADNOC Gas saw revenue plunge 33.2% and net profit collapse 52.0%, the worst in the energy complex. Airlines are even uglier: AIRA revenue fell 34.2% and net profit swung to a loss of 296.3%, while Air Arabia revenue dipped 0.2% but EBITDA crashed 49.9% and net profit plummeted 74.9%. These are not just cyclical dips; they signal structural headwinds — gas oversupply and post-pandemic travel normalisation hitting margins hard.

Fertiglobe's profit explosion is the plot twist

Fertiglobe, a fertilizer producer, delivered a stunning +91.9% revenue growth and a net profit surge of +466.8% — far outpacing its 3-year revenue CAGR of -17.5%. This acceleration from prior stagnation suggests a sharp cyclical upturn in fertilizer prices and volumes. Meanwhile, Pilbara Minerals, a lithium miner, saw revenue jump 73.0% and net profit soar 368.6%, but its 3-year revenue CAGR is -29.1%, highlighting extreme volatility. The twist: both are cyclical recoveries, not structural growth stories, and investors should be wary of extrapolating.

Cheap for growth: banks and gold miners offer value

HALYK Bank trades at just 4.1x earnings with a 13.2% dividend yield, despite a 3-year revenue CAGR of +24.3% — a classic value trap or deep value? Emaar Development is even cheaper at 3.9x P/E and 0.7x EV/EBITDA, with revenue up 32.1% and net profit up 43.6%. In contrast, Nu Holdings is priced for perfection at 110.1x P/E despite 50.2% revenue growth and a negative 3-year revenue CAGR of -26.5%. Similarly, Lynas Rare Earths trades at 65.0x P/E and 48.3x EV/EBITDA, a steep premium for its 80.2% revenue growth. The message: growth alone doesn't justify any price; cash flow and sustainability matter.

Income: KEGC and HALYK lead with double-digit yields

KEGC offers a 10.9% dividend yield (DPS 161.9₸ on a price of 1490.0₸) with revenue up 31.1% and net profit up 59.4%. HALYK Bank yields 13.2% (DPS 51.1₸ on 387.69₸) but net profit fell 15.3%. KZTO provides a 9.8% yield (DPS 118.0₸ on 1197.98₸) with revenue up 10.3% and net profit up 36.3%. These yields are attractive, but HALYK's declining profit warrants caution; KEGC and KZTO offer better growth-income balance.

The long view: TSMC and Nu Holdings show divergent paths

TSMC boasts a 3-year revenue CAGR of +18.9% and trades at 28.2x P/E, a reasonable premium for its dominant foundry position. Nu Holdings, despite a -26.5% 3-year revenue CAGR, trades at 110.1x P/E, a warning sign of overvaluation. Looking ahead, watch for memory chip demand sustainability and whether cyclical recoveries in fertilizers and lithium hold. The divergence between structural growth and cyclical spikes will define the next quarter.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

On August 10, Freedom Holding Corp. (FRHC) reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (quarter ended June 30, 2026). Revenue rose 40% year-on-year to $732.5 million, but net income fell to $31.7 million from $37.4 million a year earlier. The main reason was losses in the insurance and other segments, which offset growth in brokerage and banking. At the current price, the shares look neutral: revenue and customer base growth is impressive, but falling profits and a high LTM P/E of 68.5 limit appeal.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 40% on brokerage and banking, but net income fell due to losses in insurance and other segments

— Brokerage segment revenue rose 60% and contributed $133.6 million in net income, over 400% of total net income

— Insurance segment posted a $19.2 million loss and other segments a $86.5 million loss, together exceeding profits from brokerage and banking

— Banking segment revenue grew 54% but net income was only $3.7 million due to high expenses and lower fee income

— Customer base grew to 8.74 million, while insurance customers fell 17% due to changes in Kazakhstan insurance law

— Company raised $300 million in July through a share offering and completed the acquisition of a Turkish bank for $33.4 million, expanding into new markets

— At LTM P/E of 68.5 and ROE of 8.4%, the stock is valued above historical levels, and the portal model indicates only 1% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 40% on brokerage and banking, but net income fell due to losses in insurance and other segments

Total revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was $732.5 million, up 40% from $524.0 million a year earlier. The main contributors were the brokerage and banking segments, which increased revenue by 60% and 54% respectively. However, net income fell to $31.7 million from $37.4 million, as the insurance and other segments posted losses.

The insurance segment recorded a loss of $19.2 million, and other areas a loss of $86.5 million. These losses outweighed the brokerage segment's profit of $133.6 million and banking's $3.7 million. Thus, business diversification did not prevent a decline in the bottom line.

Brokerage segment revenue rose 60% and contributed $133.6 million in net income, over 400% of total net income

Brokerage segment revenue grew 60% to $282.6 million, the largest contribution to overall growth. The segment also posted net income of $133.6 million, more than four times the company's total net income. This means other segments combined operated at a loss.

The brokerage segment's revenue growth was driven by higher fee and commission income, interest income, and foreign exchange operations. The number of retail brokerage customers rose to 874,000 from 858,000 as of March 31, 2026.

Insurance segment posted a $19.2 million loss and other segments a $86.5 million loss, together exceeding profits from brokerage and banking

The insurance segment recorded a net loss of $19.2 million with revenue declining 8% to $150.9 million. The decline was due to lower insurance volumes from changes in Kazakhstan's insurance law and lower trading income. The number of insurance customers fell to 924,000 from 1,117,000 as of March 31, 2026.

Other areas, including telecommunications, online supermarket Arbuz, and payment services, posted a loss of $86.5 million despite revenue doubling to $73.9 million. The loss may be related to investments in these areas, but the exact reason is not disclosed in the report.

Banking segment revenue grew 54% but net income was only $3.7 million due to high expenses and lower fee income

Banking segment revenue grew 54% to $225.2 million, but net income was only $3.7 million. Revenue growth was driven by higher foreign exchange operations, trading income, and interest income. However, fee and commission income declined due to active use of the SuperApp cashback program, which reduced banking service revenue.

The number of banking clients rose to 5,447,000 from 5,026,000 as of March 31, 2026. Despite customer base growth, the segment showed low profit, which may indicate high operating expenses or one-off factors.

Customer base grew to 8.74 million, while insurance customers fell 17% due to changes in Kazakhstan insurance law

Total customers grew to 8,743,000 from 8,100,000 as of March 31, 2026. Growth came from brokerage, banking, and other segments. However, the insurance customer base shrank to 924,000 from 1,117,000, a 17% decline.

The decline in insurance customers is due to changes in Kazakhstan's insurance law, which led to lower insurance volumes. This negatively affected the insurance segment's revenue and profit.

Company raised $300 million in July through a share offering and completed the acquisition of a Turkish bank for $33.4 million, expanding into new markets

On July 10, 2026, FRHC completed an offering of 2,374,356 shares, raising a total of $300 million. The offering was made to non-U.S. persons under Regulation S. The proceeds may be used to finance acquisitions and business development.

On July 31, 2026, the company completed the acquisition of approximately 99.32% of Turkish Bank A.Ş. for $33.4 million. This step expands FRHC's presence in the Turkish market. Additionally, on June 1, 2026, ChessBase GmbH was acquired to strengthen the digital ecosystem.

At LTM P/E of 68.5 and ROE of 8.4%, the stock is valued above historical levels, and the portal model indicates only 1% upside

The LTM P/E multiple is 68.5, significantly above historical levels for the company. Return on equity (ROE) is 8.4%, which does not justify such a high multiple. The portal model, based on comparing ROE and P/B, indicates only 1% upside to fair value.

The company's market capitalisation is $9.95 billion. At the current valuation, the shares look neutral: on one hand, the business is growing and diversifying; on the other, profits are falling and multiples are high. A sustained profit recovery is needed to improve the valuation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Freedom Holding showed strong revenue growth of 40%, but net income fell due to losses in insurance and other segments. The brokerage business remains the main profit driver, but its contribution does not offset losses elsewhere. The company is actively expanding through acquisitions and raising capital, which may support future growth, but the current valuation (P/E 68.5) already reflects these expectations. At the current price, the shares look neutral: upside is limited, and risks of profit decline remain.

On August 25, TSMC reported Q2 2026 results: revenue up 36.0% YoY, net profit up 77.4%, and EBITDA margin at 76.0%. Despite this momentum, shares trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.4 versus a three-year average of 14.0, making the stock rather attractive but not a clear bargain.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue grew 36.0% YoY to TWD 1,270,380 million

— Net profit for the quarter rose 77.4% thanks to operating leverage and margin expansion

— EBITDA margin reached 76.0% versus 69.8% a year earlier, reflecting improved cost structure

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was TWD 783,365 million, funding capex without increasing debt

— Net debt is negative at TWD -2,102,545 million, providing a cushion for investments and dividends

— Trailing dividend yield is 0.89%, below the key rate, but the company is growing faster

— The portal's model implies +22% upside, making the stock attractive on a one-year horizon

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 36.0% YoY to TWD 1,270,380 million

In Q2 2026, TSMC reported revenue of TWD 1,270,380 million, up 36.0% from the same quarter a year earlier. This continues the acceleration: Q1 2026 growth was 35.1%.

The main driver remains demand for advanced nodes used in AI and high-performance computing. The company is expanding capacity, which is also reflected in rising capital expenditures.

Net profit for the quarter rose 77.4% thanks to operating leverage and margin expansion

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached TWD 706,562 million, up 77.4% from a year earlier. Profit growth significantly outpaced revenue, indicating high operating leverage.

Net margin rose to 55.6% from 42.7% a year earlier. This reflects both volume growth and improved cost structure, including economies of scale on new nodes.

EBITDA margin reached 76.0% versus 69.8% a year earlier, reflecting improved cost structure

EBITDA for the quarter grew 48.1% YoY, and EBITDA margin reached 76.0% versus 69.8% in Q2 2025. The 6.2 percentage point margin expansion stems from operating leverage and cost control.

Such high profitability is typical for a semiconductor leader, but it also reflects favorable pricing for advanced nodes. Going forward, margin may stabilize as competition and capex increase.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was TWD 783,365 million, funding capex without increasing debt

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow reached TWD 783,365 million, while capital expenditures were TWD 508,395 million. Thus, the company fully covers its investment program from operating cash flow.

Free cash flow after capex remains positive, allowing capacity expansion and dividend payments. Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow totaled TWD 2,275,000 million.

Net debt is negative at TWD -2,102,545 million, providing a cushion for investments and dividends

At the end of Q2 2026, TSMC's net debt stood at TWD -2,102,545 million, meaning a net cash position. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is -0.54.

During the quarter, net debt decreased by RUB 124.2 billion in ruble terms, and by RUB 715.9 billion over twelve months. This strengthens the balance sheet and provides resources for the ambitious capex program.

Trailing dividend yield is 0.89%, below the key rate, but the company is growing faster

Over the last twelve months, TSMC paid dividends yielding 0.89% of current market cap. This is below the key rate, but the company reinvests a large portion of profits, driving double-digit revenue and profit growth.

We expect dividends to continue growing this year, but at a moderate pace due to high capex needs. The key factor is sustaining profitability and cash flow.

The portal's model implies +22% upside, making the stock attractive on a one-year horizon

Our valuation model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, implies +22% upside for TSMC shares from the current price. This exceeds the historical average gap between price and fair value.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 19.4 versus the three-year average of 14.0. The premium is justified by accelerating growth and high profitability, but investors are paying for expectations already partly priced in.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

TSMC continues to deliver impressive growth: Q2 revenue up 36% and net profit up 77%, confirming strong operating leverage. The company generates robust cash flow, fully covering capex, and has negative net debt, providing financial flexibility. However, shares trade at a premium to their own history, and dividend yield is modest. Our verdict is 'rather attractive': the portal model's upside (+22%) and strong fundamentals outweigh, but investors should monitor sustained growth and margins.

On May 29, 2026, KazMunayGas reported first-quarter 2026 results: revenue rose 10.7% to KZT 2,481 billion, net profit jumped 89.8% to KZT 373 billion. However, operating cash flow was just KZT 283 million versus KZT 427 billion a year earlier, and free cash flow turned negative at KZT 78 billion. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: multiples are below their own history, and the portal's model implies +61% upside.

Key takeaways

— Net profit rose 89.8% to KZT 373 billion, but almost half – KZT 196 billion – is share in profits of joint ventures, not cash result

— Operating cash flow collapsed to KZT 283 million due to receivables growth and timing of TCO dividends shifted to April

— EBITDA grew 33% to KZT 775 billion, but adjusted EBITDA rose only 6.8% to KZT 591 billion

— Free cash flow turned negative: minus KZT 78 billion versus plus KZT 283 billion a year earlier

— Net debt rose 52.7% in the quarter to KZT 573 billion, but the ratio to EBITDA – 1.52 – remains moderate

— Dividend yield over 12 months is 1.63%, below the key rate, and payouts depend on cash flows from JVs

— On the portal's model, the share has +61% upside to fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Net profit rose 89.8% to KZT 373 billion, but almost half – KZT 196 billion – is share in profits of joint ventures, not cash result

In Q1 2026, KazMunayGas's net profit reached KZT 373 billion versus KZT 193 billion a year earlier. The 89.8% growth was driven by higher revenue, higher share in profits of JVs and associates, lower impairment and finance costs.

However, KZT 196 billion of that is share in profits of joint ventures, mainly Tengizchevroil and Mangistaumunaigas. This is not cash flow but an accounting share. Excluding it, net profit would be KZT 190 billion, only 15.9% above last year's level.

Operating cash flow collapsed to KZT 283 million due to receivables growth and timing of TCO dividends shifted to April

Operating cash flow for Q1 2026 was just KZT 283 million versus KZT 427.5 billion a year earlier. The company attributes this to working capital changes, including higher receivables, and timing of dividend receipts from Tengizchevroil.

Dividends from TCO of KZT 140 billion were received after the reporting date, on April 29, 2026. In Q1 last year, KMG received KZT 156 billion from JVs. This is a one-off shift, but it heavily distorts the quarterly cash flow.

EBITDA grew 33% to KZT 775 billion, but adjusted EBITDA rose only 6.8% to KZT 591 billion

EBITDA for Q1 2026 was KZT 775 billion, 33% above last year. Growth was driven by higher revenue in all segments and higher share in profits of JVs.

However, adjusted EBITDA, which reflects dividends from JVs instead of share in their profits, rose only 6.8% to KZT 591 billion. The gap shows how much the result depends on the accounting share in JVs rather than actual cash received.

Free cash flow turned negative: minus KZT 78 billion versus plus KZT 283 billion a year earlier

Free cash flow in Q1 2026 was minus KZT 78 billion versus plus KZT 283 billion a year earlier. The reason is a sharp drop in operating cash flow and higher cash-basis capex of KZT 237 billion (+64.3%).

Accrual-basis capex, in contrast, fell 10% to KZT 116 billion. The gap is due to equipment purchases for subsidiaries, including KMG PetroChem and Kazakh Gas Processing Plant.

Net debt rose 52.7% in the quarter to KZT 573 billion, but the ratio to EBITDA – 1.52 – remains moderate

As of end-March 2026, KMG's net debt was KZT 573 billion versus KZT 375 billion at end-2025. The 52.7% increase is explained by lower cash and deposits, which were used to finance investment projects of subsidiaries, and by currency revaluation.

Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.52. This is a moderate level, though the direction of change is unknown – the earlier value was not provided. Gross debt was almost flat: KZT 3,504 billion versus KZT 3,522 billion.

Dividend yield over 12 months is 1.63%, below the key rate, and payouts depend on cash flows from JVs

Over the last 12 months, KMG's dividend yield was 1.63% – well below the key rate. This is typical for state-controlled companies but limits the share's appeal for income-oriented investors.

Payouts depend on cash flows, including dividends from JVs. In Q1 2026, KMG received only KZT 12 billion from JVs versus KZT 156 billion a year earlier – the main TCO payment came in April. If such shifts recur, free cash flow will be volatile, posing a risk to dividends.

On the portal's model, the share has +61% upside to fair value

Our model re-prices EBITDA at current oil prices and compares with a target EV/EBITDA multiple. On the portal's model, the share's upside to fair value is +61%.

Current multiples: P/E for the last twelve months is 18.7, EV/EBITDA is 15.5. These are moderate for a state-controlled oil company, especially with Brent averaging USD 81.1 per barrel in Q1 2026.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The quarter is strong on accounting metrics: revenue and net profit grew double-digit, EBITDA rose a third. But operating cash flow nearly vanished, free cash flow turned negative, and half of the profit growth came from the share in JVs, which brought no cash this quarter. Debt is moderate, dividend yield is low. The key question for a holder is when JV cash flows will arrive evenly and whether the investment program will have to be debt-financed. At the current price and with +61% upside on the portal's model, the share looks rather attractive.

On August 27, MediaTek reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 1.2% YoY to TWD 152.2 billion, but EBITDA fell 15.5% to TWD 29.7 billion and net profit dropped 12.6% to TWD 24.3 billion. Given weak profit dynamics and a rich valuation, the shares look rather unattractive.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew only 1.2% YoY, but it was the first positive quarterly growth in four quarters

— EBITDA margin fell from 23.4% to 19.5% – the worst reading in five quarters

— Net profit declined 12.6% to TWD 24.3 billion, driven by operating margin compression

— Operating cash flow in Q2 was TWD 24.3 billion, but capex rose to TWD 15.0 billion – nearly double a year ago

— Net debt is negative: minus TWD 157.3 billion, equivalent to -2.0 times EBITDA over the last twelve months

— Trailing dividend yield is 1.16%, below the three-year average yield

— Shares trade at P/E of 76.4 and EV/EBITDA of 63.3 – far above the three-year average of 17.7

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Q2 revenue grew only 1.2% YoY, but it was the first positive quarterly growth in four quarters

In Q2 2026, MediaTek's revenue reached TWD 152.2 billion, up 1.2% YoY. This was the first positive quarterly growth after three quarters of decline: in Q1 2026 revenue fell 2.7% YoY, and in Q3 and Q4 2025 the declines were even steeper.

The positive dynamics are still weak, but they point to stabilisation in demand after a period of correction. The question is whether the company can sustain growth amid competitive pressure and a maturing smartphone market.

EBITDA margin fell from 23.4% to 19.5% – the worst reading in five quarters

EBITDA in Q2 2026 was TWD 29.7 billion, down 15.5% YoY. EBITDA margin fell from 23.4% to 19.5% – the lowest level in five quarters.

Margin compression is happening against stagnant revenue, pointing to higher cost of goods sold or operating expenses. The company has not been able to offset price declines or a shift in product mix toward lower-margin products.

Net profit declined 12.6% to TWD 24.3 billion, driven by operating margin compression

Net profit in Q2 2026 was TWD 24.3 billion, down 12.6% YoY. Operating profit fell from TWD 29.4 billion to TWD 22.9 billion, reflecting deteriorating operating efficiency.

The decline in profit is faster than in revenue, confirming that the issue is not demand but profitability. Unless the company restores margins, even modest revenue growth will not translate into profit growth.

Operating cash flow in Q2 was TWD 24.3 billion, but capex rose to TWD 15.0 billion – nearly double a year ago

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was TWD 24.3 billion, a significant improvement from Q1 when it was negative (minus TWD 17.7 billion). However, capex rose to TWD 15.0 billion from TWD 8.4 billion a year ago.

The near-doubling of capex may be related to investments in new technologies or capacity expansion. This reduces free cash flow, which after such spending was only about TWD 9.2 billion for the quarter.

Net debt is negative: minus TWD 157.3 billion, equivalent to -2.0 times EBITDA over the last twelve months

At the end of Q2 2026, MediaTek's net debt was minus TWD 157.3 billion, meaning the company has a significant net cash position. Net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is -2.0, indicating financial strength.

Over the quarter, the net cash position decreased by TWD 1.6 billion, and over the last twelve months by TWD 18.7 billion, driven by higher capex and dividend payments. Nevertheless, the company remains a net creditor.

Trailing dividend yield is 1.16%, below the three-year average yield

Over the last twelve months, MediaTek paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 1.16% at the current price. This is below the three-year average yield, which we estimate at around 2.5–3%.

The low yield is explained by both the high share price and moderate payout levels. If the company maintains the current dividend, the yield will remain low, making the share less attractive for income-oriented investors.

Shares trade at P/E of 76.4 and EV/EBITDA of 63.3 – far above the three-year average of 17.7

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 63.3, almost 3.6 times higher than the three-year average (17.7). P/E is also high at 76.4. Such valuation implies that the market expects significant profit acceleration, which is not yet visible in the reports.

According to the portal's model, the upside to fair value is -5%, confirming that the current price is stretched. Even with a strong balance sheet and leadership in semiconductors, the current valuation leaves little room for error.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2, MediaTek showed its first revenue growth in a year, but that growth was accompanied by double-digit declines in EBITDA and net profit due to margin compression. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with negative net debt, but capex is rising and dividend yield remains low. At the current valuation – P/E of 76.4 and EV/EBITDA of 63.3 versus a three-year average of 17.7 – the shares look rather unattractive. A change in the verdict would require margin recovery and faster revenue growth.

25 августа ASE Technology раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 26,7% год к году, до 191 064 млн TWD, EBITDA – на 52,4%, а чистая прибыль – на 180,1%. Рентабельность по EBITDA достигла 21,5% против 17,9% годом ранее, чистая маржа – 11,0% против 5,0%. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA в 2,2 раза выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего, но модель портала даёт потенциал роста на 22%, а дивидендная доходность в 1,03% остаётся ниже ключевой ставки.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 26.7% YoY to TWD 191,064 million, accelerating from 17.2% in Q1

— EBITDA margin reached 21.5% – the highest in four quarters, helped by a 107% jump in operating profit

— Net profit in Q2 2026 was TWD 21,068 million – 2.8 times higher than a year earlier, driven by operating profit growth and likely one-offs

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was TWD 47,014 million, but capex rose to TWD 79,849 million, resulting in negative free cash flow

— Net debt at end-June 2026 was TWD 162,345.5 million, or 1.15x EBITDA for the last twelve months

— Trailing dividend yield is 1.03%, below the key rate, and under pressure from high capex

— The portal's model implies 22% upside, making the stock attractive despite the rich valuation

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 26.7% YoY to TWD 191,064 million, accelerating from 17.2% in Q1

In Q2 2026, ASE Technology's revenue reached TWD 191,064 million, up 26.7% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is a marked acceleration from Q1 2026, when growth was 17.2%.

Sequential dynamics are also positive: revenue rose 10% from Q1 2026 (TWD 173,662 million). The company continues to accelerate, pointing to sustained demand for semiconductor assembly and testing services.

EBITDA margin reached 21.5% – the highest in four quarters, helped by a 107% jump in operating profit

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 52.4% YoY to TWD 41,134 million, with EBITDA margin reaching 21.5% versus 17.9% a year earlier. This is the best reading in four quarters: in Q1 2026 the margin was 20.8%, in Q4 2025 – 20.4%.

Operating profit surged 107% YoY to TWD 21,134 million, indicating operating leverage: revenue is growing faster than operating expenses. Margin expansion is the key driver of profit growth.

Net profit in Q2 2026 was TWD 21,068 million – 2.8 times higher than a year earlier, driven by operating profit growth and likely one-offs

Net profit for Q2 2026 reached TWD 21,068 million, up 180.1% from the same period a year earlier (TWD 7,521 million). Net margin rose to 11.0% from 5.0%.

Profit growth significantly outpaces operating profit growth, suggesting one-off gains or a lower tax burden. These items are not disclosed in the report, so we cannot name their nature, but investors should note that part of the profit may be non-operating.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was TWD 47,014 million, but capex rose to TWD 79,849 million, resulting in negative free cash flow

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was TWD 47,014 million, up 28% from a year earlier (TWD 36,845 million). However, capex rose even more – to TWD 79,849 million versus TWD 43,104 million in Q2 2025.

As a result, free cash flow for the quarter was negative: minus TWD 32,835 million. The company is actively investing in capacity expansion, which explains the rise in debt. Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was TWD 142,200 million, while capex over four quarters was about TWD 212,583 million, meaning a free cash flow deficit persists on an annual basis as well.

Net debt at end-June 2026 was TWD 162,345.5 million, or 1.15x EBITDA for the last twelve months

At end-June 2026, ASE Technology's net debt stood at TWD 162,345.5 million. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.15, a moderate level for a company with heavy capex.

Over the last twelve months, net debt increased by TWD 45.6 billion, reflecting the financing of the investment program. Still, the leverage ratio remains comfortable, and the company retains the ability to service its debt.

Trailing dividend yield is 1.03%, below the key rate, and under pressure from high capex

Over the last twelve months, ASE Technology paid dividends equivalent to 1.03% of the current price. This is well below the key rate, making the stock unattractive for income-oriented investors.

High capex and negative free cash flow call into question the company's ability to maintain or increase dividends. If investments remain at current levels, payouts could be cut. Our dividend forecast for the current year is in line with last year, but it depends on whether the company can generate sufficient cash flow after funding construction.

The portal's model implies 22% upside, making the stock attractive despite the rich valuation

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the last twelve months is 21.0, more than double its own three-year average of 9.43. P/E LTM is 46.8, ROE is 22.8%.

Despite the rich valuation, the portal's model implies +22% upside. This suggests the market may be underestimating the company's ability to grow EBITDA through operating leverage and revenue growth. If the company continues to deliver such growth rates, the current price may prove justified.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report is strong: revenue accelerated to 26.7%, EBITDA margin reached 21.5%, and net profit grew 2.8 times. However, part of the profit may be one-off, and free cash flow remains negative due to the massive investment program. The dividend yield of 1.03% does not protect against inflation, but the portal's model implies 22% upside, making the stock rather attractive provided current growth rates persist. The key question for holders is whether the company can convert revenue growth into cash flow without increasing leverage.

25 августа Nanya Technology раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 684,2% год к году, до 82 549 млн тайваньских долларов, чистая прибыль составила 50 192 млн, а рентабельность по EBITDA достигла 79,2%. На фоне этих цифр акции выглядят привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA за последние 12 месяцев составляет 13,8, а по модели портала потенциал роста — 70%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 684.2% year-on-year to TWD 82,549 million, driven by memory market recovery

— EBITDA margin reached 79.2% versus negative a year ago, reflecting operating leverage as capacity utilization improved

— Net profit for the quarter was TWD 50,192 million, resulting in a net margin of 60.8%

— Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 reached TWD 55,859 million, funding capex and boosting net cash

— Net debt turned into a net cash position of TWD 199,206 million, equivalent to 0.3 times annual EBITDA

— Trailing dividend yield is only 0.26%, below the key rate, but the company could increase payouts if profitability holds

— On the portal's model, the stock has 70% upside from the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 684.2% year-on-year to TWD 82,549 million, driven by memory market recovery

In Q2 2026, Nanya Technology reported revenue of TWD 82,549 million, up 684.2% year-on-year. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration: in Q1 2026 growth was 582.9% year-on-year, and in Q4 2025 revenue was TWD 30,094 million. Sequentially, revenue almost doubled from Q1 2026's TWD 49,087 million.

The main driver is the memory market recovery: DRAM prices and demand from data centers and AI have surged. The memory specialist has seen significant operating leverage: with revenue up nearly eight-fold year-on-year, EBITDA swung from negative to TWD 63,784 million in the quarter.

EBITDA margin reached 79.2% versus negative a year ago, reflecting operating leverage as capacity utilization improved

In Q2 2026, EBITDA margin reached 79.2%, versus a negative –11.3% a year earlier. This jump is explained by revenue growing much faster than operating expenses: with nearly eight-fold revenue growth, fixed costs were spread over a larger base.

Operating profit in Q2 2026 reached TWD 60,825 million, implying an operating margin of about 73.7% (calculated). This confirms that the company is operating at high capacity utilization and effectively controlling costs.

Net profit for the quarter was TWD 50,192 million, resulting in a net margin of 60.8%

Net profit in Q2 2026 was TWD 50,192 million, resulting in a net margin of 60.8%. A year earlier, the company was loss-making with a margin of –39.0%. The main driver was operating profit growth, which almost fully translated into net profit due to negligible tax and interest expenses.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was TWD 88,908 million, giving a P/E of 20.3 based on the current market cap of TWD 1,804,460 million. This is a moderate level for a company with such growth rates.

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 reached TWD 55,859 million, funding capex and boosting net cash

Operating cash flow (OCF) in Q2 2026 was TWD 55,859 million, well above capex of TWD 4,048 million. Thus, free cash flow for the quarter was about TWD 51,811 million (calculated). The company generates significantly more cash than it spends on maintaining capacity.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow was TWD 18,600 million, notably lower than the quarterly figure due to a weak start to the period. Nevertheless, the accumulated net cash position on the balance sheet reached TWD 199,206 million, equivalent to 0.3 times annual EBITDA (LTM). This gives the company enormous financial flexibility.

Net debt turned into a net cash position of TWD 199,206 million, equivalent to 0.3 times annual EBITDA

At the end of Q2 2026, the company's net cash position was TWD 199,206 million. This means cash and equivalents significantly exceed debt. A year earlier, in Q2 2025, the net cash position was only TWD 19,108 million, and in Q1 2026 it was TWD 68,485 million.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is –0.3, reflecting a net cash position. The company has no debt burden problem and can direct cash flows to development and dividends.

Trailing dividend yield is only 0.26%, below the key rate, but the company could increase payouts if profitability holds

Over the trailing twelve months, Nanya Technology paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 0.26% on the current market cap. This is very low, especially compared to the key rate, which is significantly higher. However, the company historically pays dividends from profit, and after two loss-making years, payouts were minimal.

If current profitability and net cash position are maintained, the company could increase dividends. Assuming the payout ratio returns to historical levels (e.g., 50–70% of net profit), the dividend yield could rise substantially. However, this depends on the board's decision and capital expenditure needs for capacity expansion.

On the portal's model, the stock has 70% upside from the current price

Our value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, shows that Nanya Technology shares have 70% upside from the current price. This means the market has not fully priced in the scale of the company's profitability recovery.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 13.8, which does not look stretched for a company with such growth rates. P/E of 20.3 is also moderate. If the company maintains high profitability, the shares have significant potential.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report shows an impressive recovery: revenue grew 684% year-on-year, EBITDA margin reached 79.2%, and net cash exceeded TWD 199 billion. However, such growth partly reflects a low base effect after a loss-making 2025, and sustaining it will be challenging. The key question for shareholders is the sustainability of memory prices and the company's ability to convert high profits into dividends. At current multiples and with the portal's model upside, the shares look attractive.

25 августа United Microelectronics раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 17,0% год к году, до 68 732,7 млн тайваньских долларов, EBITDA – на 24,5%, а чистая прибыль – на 374,7%, до 42 260,0 млн. Однако почти вся прибыль сформирована разовым доходом, и без него рост был бы скромнее. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA заметно выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего, но модель портала даёт потенциал +14%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue accelerated to +17.0% YoY, reaching TWD 68,732.7 million

— EBITDA margin rose to 45.3% from 42.5% a year earlier, but operating profit grew only 38.2%

— Net profit jumped 4.7x, but the bulk came from a one-off gain unrelated to operations

— Quarterly free cash flow of TWD 24,217.1 million covers capex and dividends

— Net debt is negative: the company held TWD 76,333.8 million in cash at quarter-end

— Trailing dividend yield of 1.84% is below the three-year average yield

— Valuation: EV/EBITDA of 15.0x versus a three-year average of 5.8x, but the portal's model implies +14% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Q2 revenue accelerated to +17.0% YoY, reaching TWD 68,732.7 million

In Q2 2026, United Microelectronics' revenue reached TWD 68,732.7 million, up 17.0% year-on-year. This is a marked acceleration from Q1's 5.5% growth. Sequentially, revenue also rose 12.6%.

The main driver remains the semiconductor cycle: capacity utilisation and average selling prices are recovering from the downturn. The company does not break down revenue by application, but the overall trend matches market expectations. Revenue growth is the key factor supporting both margins and cash flow.

EBITDA margin rose to 45.3% from 42.5% a year earlier, but operating profit grew only 38.2%

EBITDA in Q2 reached TWD 31,116.8 million, up 24.5% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded to 45.3% from 42.5% a year earlier. Operating profit grew 38.2% to TWD 14,878.7 million, reflecting operating leverage: as revenue rises, fixed costs are spread over a larger base.

Margin expansion stems from better utilisation and an improving pricing environment. However, operating profit is growing slower than net profit, indicating a significant contribution from non-operating items to the bottom line.

Net profit jumped 4.7x, but the bulk came from a one-off gain unrelated to operations

Net profit for Q2 came in at TWD 42,260.0 million versus TWD 8,902.5 million a year earlier – a 4.7x increase. Net margin reached 61.5% versus 15.2% last year. Such a jump cannot be explained by operations alone: operating profit rose only 38.2%.

The report likely includes a large one-off gain, such as from asset sales or investment revaluation. The company does not disclose details, but investors should note that the sustainable profit level is much lower. Without the one-off, net profit would be closer to operating profit, i.e., around TWD 15 billion.

Quarterly free cash flow of TWD 24,217.1 million covers capex and dividends

Operating cash flow in Q2 was TWD 33,697.4 million, and capex was TWD 9,480.3 million. Free cash flow thus reached TWD 24,217.1 million. This is significantly higher than in previous quarters and comfortably covers both investments and dividend payments.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow was TWD 99,900.0 million, and capex for the four quarters was about TWD 50,700 million (sum of quarterly figures). The company generates excess cash, which it uses to reduce debt and return to shareholders.

Net debt is negative: the company held TWD 76,333.8 million in cash at quarter-end

At the end of Q2, net debt was minus TWD 76,333.8 million, meaning cash exceeded debt. During the quarter, net debt decreased by TWD 18.1 billion, and over the past twelve months by TWD 27.2 billion (in ruble equivalent, as stated in the facts). The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is minus 0.5.

Negative net debt means the company is financially stable and not dependent on borrowed financing. This gives it the ability to increase dividends or invest in capacity expansion without balance-sheet risk.

Trailing dividend yield of 1.84% is below the three-year average yield

Over the trailing twelve months, United Microelectronics paid dividends yielding 1.84% at the current price. This is below the three-year average yield, which, according to the facts, is around 2.5% (calculated). The low yield reflects both the rise in the share price and a conservative dividend policy.

The company pays dividends from free cash flow, which over the trailing twelve months was about TWD 49.2 billion (difference between operating cash flow and capex). At the current market cap of TWD 1,778,669 million, even fully distributing free cash flow would yield about 2.8%, only slightly above the current level. Therefore, payout growth is possible but limited.

The key risk to dividends is earnings volatility due to the cyclical semiconductor industry. If one-off gains do not recur and operating profit remains around TWD 15 billion per quarter, the company can maintain payouts but cannot significantly increase them.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA of 15.0x versus a three-year average of 5.8x, but the portal's model implies +14% upside

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 15.0x, significantly above the three-year average of 5.8x. Trailing P/E is 21.7x. The stock trades at a premium to its own history, reflecting improved fundamentals and expectations of a continued cycle.

The portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, estimates the stock's upside at +14% from the current price. This is a moderate upside, which does not justify an extreme premium but also does not indicate overvaluation.

If revenue growth continues above 15% and EBITDA margin stays around 45%, the stock could be worth more. However, any downturn in the semiconductor cycle would compress the multiple, making the current price look expensive.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 report showed strong operational dynamics: revenue accelerated to +17.0%, EBITDA margin expanded to 45.3%, and free cash flow reached TWD 24.2 billion. However, net profit of TWD 42.3 billion was inflated by a one-off gain, and the sustainable profit level is significantly lower. The company has negative net debt and generates enough cash to cover capex and dividends, but the dividend yield is modest. The stock trades at a premium to its own history, and although the portal's model implies +14% upside, investors should wait for confirmation of sustainable growth without one-offs. Verdict: rather attractive.

25 августа ASBN раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Чистые процентные доходы выросли на 71,6% год к году, но чистая прибыль сократилась на 31,5%, а её доля в процентных доходах упала с 30,5% до 12,2%. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: P/E за последние 12 месяцев составляет 10,1, дивидендная доходность — 7,8%, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в 9%.

Key takeaways

— Чистые процентные доходы выросли на 71,6% год к году, до 410,4 млрд тенге за последние 12 месяцев

— Чистая прибыль упала на 31,5% год к году, несмотря на рост доходов

— Рентабельность по чистой прибыли резко снизилась: с 30,5% до 12,2% от чистых процентных доходов

— Дивидендная доходность 7,8% за последние 12 месяцев — выше средней за три года

— P/E за последние 12 месяцев — 10,1, что ниже среднего за три года

— ROE 15,8% поддерживает оценку: потенциал роста по модели портала — 9%

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Net interest income rose 71.6% YoY to KZT 410.4 billion over the last 12 months

In Q1 2026, net interest income reached KZT 410.4 billion over the last 12 months, up 71.6% from the same period a year earlier. This is a significant acceleration compared to 2023, when quarterly figures ranged from KZT 41.8 billion to KZT 138.3 billion.

The rise in interest income reflects portfolio expansion and higher rates, but as the data show, it does not translate into net profit due to higher provisioning or operating costs.

Net profit fell 31.5% YoY despite revenue growth

Net profit for Q1 2026 was KZT 116.4 billion over the last 12 months, down 31.5% from a year earlier. This contrasts sharply with the 71.6% growth in net interest income.

The decline in profit despite rising income points to a substantial increase in expenses, likely provisioning or operating costs, which reduced the bank's ability to convert income into profit.

Net profit margin fell sharply: from 30.5% to 12.2% of net interest income

In Q1 2026, net profit was 12.2% of net interest income, down from 30.5% a year earlier. This is not a margin or profitability ratio, but it clearly shows the bank has become much less efficient at converting income into profit.

The 18.3 percentage point decline is the result of expenses growing faster than income, eating away a significant portion of interest income.

Dividend yield of 7.8% over the last 12 months is above the three-year average

Over the last 12 months, the dividend yield was 7.8%, above the three-year average. This makes the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

Payments for the current year, in our estimate, could be around 7.8% of the current price if the bank maintains its payout policy. However, given the 31.5% drop in net profit, there is a risk of dividend cuts if the payout ratio is not increased.

P/E over the last 12 months is 10.1, below the three-year average

The current P/E over the last 12 months is 10.1, below the three-year average. This suggests the stock is trading at a discount to its own history.

With an ROE of 15.8% and a P/E of 10.1, the stock appears undervalued, especially given the 7.8% dividend yield. The portal's model estimates upside potential of 9%.

ROE of 15.8% supports valuation: portal model shows 9% upside

Return on equity over the last 12 months was 15.8%, a decent level for the banking sector. This confirms the bank's ability to generate profit on capital despite the drop in net profit.

According to the portal's model, which compares annual earnings to market capitalization, the stock has 9% upside from the current price. This is the portal's own calculation, not a market consensus.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Сильной стороной отчёта является значительный рост чистых процентных доходов на 71,6%, что свидетельствует о расширении бизнеса. Однако падение чистой прибыли на 31,5% и снижение доли прибыли в процентных доходах с 30,5% до 12,2% указывают на серьёзное давление на рентабельность. При этом акция торгуется с P/E 10,1, что ниже среднего за три года, и предлагает дивидендную доходность 7,8%. По модели портала потенциал роста составляет 9%. Вопрос для держателя – сможет ли банк восстановить маржу прибыли, или текущий уровень расходов станет новой нормой.

25 августа Winbond Electronics раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 184,7% год к году, до 59,8 млрд TWD, EBITDA — на 1832,1%, а чистая прибыль составила 24,3 млрд TWD против убытка годом ранее. Акции торгуются по мультипликатору EV/EBITDA 13,6 против среднего за три года 20,7, что делает их привлекательными, если рост спроса на память сохранится.

Key takeaways

— Выручка второго квартала 2026 года выросла на 184,7% год к году, до 59,8 млрд TWD, благодаря восстановлению рынка памяти

— EBITDA-маржа достигла 56,2% против 8,3% годом ранее, что отражает операционный леверидж при загрузке мощностей

— Чистая прибыль за квартал составила 24,3 млрд TWD, а рентабельность по чистой прибыли — 40,6%

— Долговая нагрузка по чистой прибыли за последние 12 месяцев — 0,58, что оставляет запас для инвестиций и дивидендов

— Дивидендная доходность за последние 12 месяцев — 0,27%, что ниже ключевой ставки, но компания растёт быстрее

— По модели портала, потенциал роста акций составляет +72% от текущей цены

Attractiveness

Key figures, TWD bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 184.7% YoY to TWD 59.8 billion, driven by memory market recovery

In Q2 2026, Winbond Electronics' revenue reached TWD 59.8 billion, up 184.7% from the same quarter a year earlier. This continues the acceleration: Q1 2026 saw 91.3% YoY growth. The company operates in the memory segment, and the recovery in demand and prices for DRAM and NOR Flash chips was the main driver.

Sequential dynamics show a sharp rise: revenue increased from TWD 38.3 billion in Q1 to TWD 59.8 billion in Q2. This is the highest quarterly level in two years, confirming the strength of the cycle.

EBITDA margin reached 56.2% versus 8.3% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage at higher utilization

EBITDA for Q2 2026 reached TWD 32.5 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 56.2% versus 8.3% a year earlier. Revenue growth with relatively fixed costs provides strong operating leverage: each additional sales volume directly improves profitability.

Sequential dynamics confirm this: EBITDA grew from TWD 15.8 billion in Q1 to TWD 32.5 billion in Q2. The margin is likely to remain high as long as memory prices stay at current levels.

Net profit for the quarter was TWD 24.3 billion, with a net margin of 40.6%

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached TWD 24.3 billion versus a loss of TWD 1.3 billion a year earlier. Net margin was 40.6% – a high level made possible by operating leverage and likely the absence of major one-off write-offs.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was TWD 40.8 billion, implying a margin of about 28% of revenue. This confirms the company has moved into a sustainable profitability zone after a loss-making 2025.

Net debt/EBITDA LTM is 0.58, leaving room for investments and dividends

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at TWD 36.4 billion, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.58 over the trailing twelve months. This is a moderate level, allowing the company to fund capital expenditures and pay dividends without excessive risk.

During the quarter, net debt decreased by TWD 23.2 billion, and over the last twelve months by TWD 15.4 billion, reflecting strong operating cash flow. In Q2, operating cash flow was TWD 23.3 billion, well above capex of TWD 5.4 billion.

Trailing dividend yield is 0.27%, below the key rate, but the company is growing faster

Over the trailing twelve months, Winbond paid dividends yielding 0.27% on the current share price. This is modest, especially against the key rate, which in Taiwan is around 2%. However, the company is in a phase of active growth, and reinvesting profits in capacity expansion may create more long-term value.

Our dividend forecast for the current year is based on trailing net profit of TWD 40.8 billion and a historical payout ratio of about 50%. At the current market cap of TWD 823.5 billion, this would imply a yield of about 2.5%, closer to a fair level. The payout will depend on whether high margins persist and whether funds are needed for capex.

On the portal's model, the stock has +72% upside from the current price

Our value model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, values the shares 72% above the current price. This suggests the market has not fully priced in the improvement in operating performance and the reduction in debt.

At the current EV/EBITDA of 13.6 versus the three-year average of 20.7, the stock trades at a discount to its own history. If the company maintains EBITDA at recent levels, the re-rating potential is significant.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report shows impressive growth: revenue doubled, EBITDA margin reached 56.2%, and net profit was TWD 24.3 billion. Debt is moderate, and operating cash flow comfortably covers capex. However, the key question is the sustainability of the cycle: if memory prices stabilize or decline, margins could shrink quickly. Meanwhile, the stock trades at a discount to its own history, and the portal's model implies +72% upside, making it attractive for long-term investors willing to tolerate volatility.

On August 28, KazTransOil reported H1 2026 results. Revenue rose 10.3% to KZT 374.2bn, EBITDA grew 15.7%, and net profit jumped 36.3% to KZT 61.0bn. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: multiples are low, dividend yield is around 10%, but free cash flow after capex remains under pressure.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue grew 10.3% on higher tariffs and volumes

— EBITDA margin widened to 34.4% from 32.8% a year earlier

— H1 net profit rose 36.3%, helped by one-off gains from bond modification

— Leverage remains low: net debt is negative, net debt/EBITDA at -0.1

— Capex for H1 was KZT 16.9bn, but free cash flow is still positive

— Dividend for 2025 was KZT 118 per share, yield around 10%

— The stock trades at P/E of 8.9 and EV/EBITDA of 4.0 — below its own history

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

H1 revenue grew 10.3% on higher tariffs and volumes

For H1 2026, KazTransOil's revenue reached KZT 374.2bn, up 10.3% from the same period a year earlier. Growth was driven by both higher tariffs and increased transportation volumes. In particular, from January 1, 2026, the export tariff rose to KZT 4,963.25 per tonne per 1,000 km, and from June 1, 2026, to KZT 12,500 per tonne per 1,000 km.

Quarterly dynamics are also positive: in Q2 2026, revenue grew 14.1% YoY, accelerating from Q1's +1.9%. This suggests that tariff hikes and volume growth continue to support the top line.

EBITDA margin widened to 34.4% from 32.8% a year earlier

EBITDA for H1 2026 grew 15.7% YoY, and the EBITDA margin widened to 34.4% from 32.8% a year earlier. The margin expansion stems from revenue growing faster than operating costs, typical for a regulated monopolist when tariffs rise.

In Q2 2026, EBITDA, based on our calculations from quarterly data, was about KZT 43.6bn, up 10.5% YoY. This confirms the sustainability of operational efficiency.

H1 net profit rose 36.3%, helped by one-off gains from bond modification

Net profit for H1 2026 reached KZT 61.0bn, up 36.3% YoY. Profit growth significantly outpaced EBITDA growth, explained by a one-off gain of KZT 3.9bn recognized in Q1 from the modification of Main Waterline bonds — deferring principal repayments to 2032–2033.

Excluding this one-off, net profit would have grown by about 28%, still a strong result. In Q2 2026, net profit was KZT 16.9bn, up 14.1% YoY, without significant one-offs.

Leverage remains low: net debt is negative, net debt/EBITDA at -0.1

As of end-June 2026, KazTransOil's net debt is negative at minus KZT 12.1bn, meaning cash exceeds debt. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is minus 0.1 — the company has virtually no net debt.

Over the last 12 months, net debt decreased by KZT 35.8bn, reflecting strong operating cash flow and moderate capex. The company continues to generate excess liquidity despite its investment program.

Capex for H1 was KZT 16.9bn, but free cash flow is still positive

Operating cash flow for the last twelve months was KZT 109.8bn, and capex for H1 2026 was KZT 16.9bn. Even with seasonality, when major repairs occur in H2, free cash flow remains positive.

For H1 2026, operating cash flow was KZT 31.6bn, more than covering capex. This is important for assessing the company's ability to pay dividends.

Dividend for 2025 was KZT 118 per share, yield around 10%

For 2025, KazTransOil paid dividends of KZT 118 per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 9.8% at the current price. This is above the average yield of recent years and comparable to the key rate.

Our estimated dividend for 2026, based on current profit and payout policy, is about KZT 120–130 per share, implying a yield of about 10–11%. However, the payment will depend on maintaining profitability and capex in H2.

A risk to the dividend is a potential increase in the investment program or tariff cuts, but current indicators point to sufficient cash flow.

The stock trades at P/E of 8.9 and EV/EBITDA of 4.0 — below its own history

At the current market cap of KZT 473.6bn, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8.9 and EV/EBITDA of 4.0. These multiples are in the lower part of the company's three-year historical range, indicating undervaluation relative to its own history.

Low leverage and stable cash flow make the valuation even more attractive. Even without dividends, the upside potential is significant if the company maintains its current momentum.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

KazTransOil reported stronger-than-expected H1: revenue and EBITDA are growing at double-digit rates, margins are expanding, and net profit received an additional boost from one-off income. Leverage is minimal, and a dividend yield of around 10% makes the stock attractive for income-oriented investors. However, part of the profit is driven by one-offs, and capex may increase in H2. At the current valuation (P/E 8.9, EV/EBITDA 4.0), the stock trades below its own history, leaving upside potential. Verdict: rather attractive.

AIRA reported H1 2026 results: revenue rose 16.1% to $763.9 million, but cost growth outpaced revenue, leading to a net loss of $21 million versus a profit a year earlier. The shares look attractive at the current price given the portal model's upside (+9%) and moderate leverage, despite current losses.

Key takeaways

— H1 2026 revenue grew 16.1% driven by a 15.8% RASK increase

— CASK growth of 22.2% eroded operating profit and led to a net loss

— EBITDAR fell 9.7% in H1 2026 due to higher fuel and maintenance costs

— Net debt rose $0.4 billion in the half-year, but Net Debt/EBITDA remains moderate

— Trailing dividend yield is 1.43%, below the key rate

— The portal's model sees +9% upside for the shares

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

H1 2026 revenue grew 16.1% driven by a 15.8% RASK increase

In H1 2026, group revenue and other income reached $763.9 million, up 16.1% year-on-year. The main driver was higher unit revenue: RASK increased 15.8% to 7.43 cents per ASK, while capacity (ASK) was almost flat (+0.2%). The company actively redeployed capacity: China +91%, India +41%, while the Middle East was cut by 35%.

In Q2 2026, momentum accelerated: revenue grew 18.3% to $432.9 million, RASK – 18.5% to 7.78 cents. Both brands contributed: Air Astana revenue rose 24.1%, FlyArystan only 1.5% due to a 16.4% capacity cut.

CASK growth of 22.2% eroded operating profit and led to a net loss

Unit cost (CASK) rose 22.2% to 7.30 cents in H1, outpacing RASK growth. Fuel and handling were the main drivers, accounting for 44% of the cost increase. Operating expenses grew 22.5% to $750 million.

As a result, the group posted a net loss of $21 million for the half-year versus a profit a year earlier. In Q2, the loss was minimal – $0.1 million, versus a profit of $18 million a year ago. Net margin for the half-year was -4.9% versus +1.6% a year earlier.

EBITDAR fell 9.7% in H1 2026 due to higher fuel and maintenance costs

Group EBITDAR for H1 was $141.7 million, down 9.7% year-on-year. EBITDAR margin contracted 5.3 percentage points to 18.6%. Higher fuel prices, labour costs and aircraft maintenance were the main pressures.

FlyArystan was hit hardest: EBITDAR fell 17.2% to $25.6 million due to capacity cuts. Air Astana's EBITDAR declined 7.8% to $110.8 million, partly due to KZT appreciation, which eroded USD-linked margins.

Net debt rose $0.4 billion in the half-year, but Net Debt/EBITDA remains moderate

At end-H1 2026, net debt stood at $61,099.4 million, up $0.4 billion from the previous reporting date and $0.5 billion over the last 12 months. The increase reflects fleet expansion and capital expenditure financing.

Net Debt/EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.69, well below the company's 3.0x target. Operating cash flow over 12 months reached $128 million, supporting debt service.

Trailing dividend yield is 1.43%, below the key rate

Over the last 12 months, the company paid dividends yielding 1.43% at the current price. This is well below the key rate, making the share unattractive for income-focused investors.

No new dividends were declared in the half-year report. Given the net loss for the period, the likelihood of maintaining or increasing payouts in the coming quarters remains uncertain. Payments will depend on restoring profitability and cash flow.

The portal's model sees +9% upside for the shares

According to the portal's model, the fair value of the share is 9% above the current market price. The calculation is based on EBITDA growth times the target multiple, compared with a market cap of $542.1 million.

Current multiples: P/E LTM is 40.0, EV/EBITDA LTM – 1.71. The low EV/EBITDA reflects significant debt and net losses. Return on equity (ROE) is 3.56%.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In H1 2026, AIRA delivered strong revenue growth of 16.1%, driven by higher yields and capacity redeployment towards fast-growing China and India markets. However, a 22.2% CASK increase offset these gains, leading to a net loss of $21 million. Moderate leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA 1.69) and positive operating cash flow provide a cushion, but restoring profitability remains the key question for shareholders. At the current price, the shares look attractive given the portal model's +9% upside, but investors should watch CASK dynamics and the company's ability to control costs.