Fertilizers and gold miners lead a split-season: Fertiglobe's 92% surge vs coal's 18% slide

This season's earnings painted a picture of two economies: one powered by commodities and digital disruption, the other dragged by energy and traditional retail. The standout divergence was stark — fertilizer giant Fertiglobe grew revenue 91.9% year over year, while coal miners like Whitehaven saw revenue sink 27.7%. The winners were those riding structural demand shifts (fertilizers, rare earths, digital banking) or surging commodity prices (gold, platinum), while losers were exposed to oversupplied or decarbonizing sectors.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Fertilizers and gold miners are the new growth engines

Fertiglobe's revenue surged 91.9% year over year, with EBITDA up 79.7% and net profit exploding 466.8% — a clear sign that agricultural demand and pricing power have returned with force. Gold miners followed suit: Genesis Minerals grew revenue 142.2%, Gold Fields 68.2%, and Evolution Mining 37.5%, with the latter's EBITDA jumping 147.5%. Even platinum group metals shone, with Impala Platinum revenue up 43.7% and net profit soaring 399.0%. These sectors are not just growing; they are compounding at rates that dwarf the broader market.

Coal and gas processors are the season's laggards

The energy complex outside of oil services was ugly. Coal miners led the decline: Whitehaven's revenue fell 27.7%, New Hope dropped 20.1%, and Yancoal slipped 15.3%, with EBITDA down 55.9%, 53.8%, and 26.6% respectively. ADNOC Gas, a gas processor, saw revenue fall 13.6% and net profit drop 15.0%. Even Santos, an oil and gas producer, reported revenue down 8.4% and net profit down 33.2%. The common thread: oversupply, weak pricing, and a structural shift away from fossil fuels.

The plot twist: Naspers and MTN defy gravity while airlines stumble

The biggest surprise came from Naspers, the internet holding, which accelerated from a prior revenue growth of 12.8% (implied by its segments) to a stunning 51.1% this year, with EBITDA up 252.6% — a digital renaissance. Similarly, MTN Group, the telecom, saw revenue jump 20.6% (up from 3.1% CAGR over three years) and net profit surge 316.3%. Meanwhile, Air Arabia, an airline, slowed from +12.8% to +1.2% revenue growth, with EBITDA down 26.6% — a clear sign that consumer travel demand is cooling. This divergence shows that digital platforms and telecoms are capturing value while traditional travel struggles.

Valuation: gold miners look cheap, digital banks are priced for perfection

For value investors, the gold mining complex is a gift. AngloGold Ashanti trades at 11.7x P/E with 27% revenue growth, while Harmony Gold is at 11.4x P/E with 19.5% growth, and Regis Resources at 11.4x P/E with 40% growth. Even Gold Fields, with 68.2% revenue growth, is only 9.4x P/E. On the flip side, Nu Holdings, the digital bank, trades at a staggering 120.5x P/E despite 57.2% growth — a premium that leaves no room for error. Similarly, Talabat, the food delivery firm, is at 58x P/E with EBITDA down 8.3%, a warning sign for growth-at-any-price investors.

Dividend yields: KZTO and ASBN reward income seekers

For income-focused investors, KZTO stands out with a dividend yield of 9.7% (DPS 118.0₸, price 1211.24₸), supported by revenue growth of 14.1% and net profit up 80.8%. ASBN offers 7.8% yield with 71.6% revenue growth, though net profit fell 31.5%. AIRA yields 7.7% but is barely profitable with a P/E of 76.8x. KEGC provides a 5.6% yield with strong fundamentals: revenue up 43.6%, net profit up 79.8%, and a P/E of just 4.7x — a rare combination of growth and yield.

Three-year CAGRs reveal the long-term winners

Looking beyond the quarter, the 3-year revenue CAGRs tell a story of sustained compounding. Old Mutual leads with a 61.2% CAGR, followed by HALYK at 59.0% and CCBN at 52.2%. KSPI shows 47.1% and FRHC 43.8%, while Aldar Properties impresses with 44.5%. These are not one-quarter wonders; they represent businesses that have consistently executed. The watch list for next season: can Fertiglobe maintain its 92% growth, and will coal miners find a floor? The divergence between structural winners and cyclical losers is likely to persist.

As the season closes, the message is clear: capital is rotating toward commodities tied to electrification and food security, while traditional energy and consumer discretionary face headwinds. The next earnings season will test whether gold miners can sustain their momentum and whether digital platforms like Naspers can keep accelerating. Investors should favor sectors with pricing power and structural demand, and remain cautious on those with oversupply and decarbonization overhangs.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)