Gold and lithium miners outrun the coal and oil wreck – a season of extreme divergence
This reporting season delivered one clear message: commodity cycles are not all moving in sync. While gold and lithium miners posted revenue growth north of 40%, the coal and oil patch saw declines of 8% to 18%. The gap between the best and worst industries – from +63% for rare earths to -32% for nickel/lithium – is the widest in years, and it is not just about commodity prices. Operational leverage, cost discipline, and balance sheet positioning have turned some sectors into cash machines and others into value traps.
Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)
Gold miners are minting cash – and it shows in triple-digit profit growth
The gold mining sector delivered median revenue growth of 40.0%, but the real story is the profit explosion. Genesis Minerals saw revenue surge 142.2% year over year, with net profit up 298.1%. Evolution Mining’s revenue grew 37.5% while EBITDA soared 158.4% and net profit jumped 110.0%. AngloGold Ashanti added 64.8% to revenue and 189.2% to net profit. These are not just volume stories – they reflect high gold prices and tight cost control. The sector is generating free cash flow at levels that make P/E ratios like AngloGold’s 11.7x look modest.
Lithium and rare earths are back from the dead – but not all miners are equal
After a brutal 2023-2024, lithium and rare earths staged a dramatic recovery. Pilbara Minerals grew revenue 46.6% year over year, with EBITDA up 350.4% and net profit up 147.3%. Lynas Rare Earths added 62.7% to revenue. Yet the twist is that IGO Ltd, in nickel/lithium, saw revenue collapse 31.7% – the worst in the entire dataset. The divergence within the battery materials space is stark: those with low-cost operations and strong balance sheets are thriving, while high-cost producers are still bleeding. The median for the lithium sector (+46.6%) hides a brutal dispersion.
Coal and oil are the season’s biggest losers – and the pain is not over
The coal sector posted a median revenue decline of 17.7%, with Whitehaven Coal down 27.7%, Yancoal Australia down 15.3%, and New Hope down 20.1%. EBITDA at New Hope collapsed 53.8%, net profit 84.0%. In oil and gas, Santos revenue fell 8.4% and net profit dropped 33.2%; Woodside Energy saw a 1.5% revenue decline but net profit fell 23.9%. The energy patch is being squeezed by lower prices and, in coal’s case, structural demand concerns. These are not cyclical dips – they are warning signs of secular erosion.
The plot twist: Fertiglobe’s fertilizer turnaround and Americana’s restaurant revival
Two names delivered the biggest accelerations. Fertiglobe, in fertilizers, swung from a prior-period revenue decline of 16.8% to a current growth of 31.7% – a 48.5 percentage-point acceleration. Net profit surged 172.6% versus a prior decline of 54.2%. Americana Restaurants reversed a prior 9.0% revenue drop to a 13.3% gain, with net profit soaring 93.5% from a prior 38.8% loss. Both are classic cyclical turnarounds – and they are happening in sectors most investors had written off as structurally challenged.
Cheap for a reason – or value hiding in plain sight?
The cheapest stocks on P/E are not in the worst sectors. KEGC trades at 4.7x earnings with revenue growth of 43.6% and a 5.6% dividend yield – a compelling combination. KZTK is at 3.5x P/E with 21.6% revenue growth and 98.1% net profit growth. At the other extreme, Northern Star Resources trades at 137.8x P/E despite only 19.0% revenue growth – priced for perfection. Fortescue at 106.6x P/E with 10.5% revenue growth looks rich for an iron ore miner. The value is in Kazakhstan and South Africa, where growth is real but multiples are compressed by perceived risk.
Yield hunters: where the cash is flowing
The top dividend yields among reporting companies are in Kazakhstan and South Africa. KZTO offers a 9.7% yield (DPS 118.0 tenge, price 1,211.24 tenge) with revenue growth of 14.1%. ASBN yields 7.8% with 71.6% revenue growth and a P/E of 9.0x. AIRA pays 7.7% but with net profit collapsing 188.7% – a warning that high yield can be a trap. KEGC’s 5.6% yield with 43.6% revenue growth and 4.7x P/E is the most sustainable high-yield story in the universe.
Looking ahead, the key question is whether gold and lithium can sustain these growth rates as base effects fade. The 3-year revenue CAGRs tell a cautionary tale: Lynas Rare Earths at -15.3%, Pilbara Minerals at -8.5%, and Yancoal at -18.3% show that today’s winners were yesterday’s laggards. The most consistent compounders are in banking and digital: Nu Holdings (3-year CAGR -26.5% due to a high base, but current growth 57.2%), KSPI at +47.1%, and HALYK at +59.0%. The next season will test whether the commodity rebound is real or just a sugar rush.
Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)
| Company | Industry | Revenue YoY | EBITDA YoY | Net profit YoY | P/E | Div yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMGZ (FY) | — | +1.4% | n/m | -2.0% | 21.0x | 1.1% |
| KZAP (FY) | — | -0.6% | +14.7% | -3.5% | 10.9x | 3.0% |
| KZTK (FY) | — | +21.6% | +24.1% | +98.1% | 3.5x | 0.8% |
| HALYK (Q1) | — | -2.0% | n/a | -14.6% | 3.9x | 0.0% |
| Sanlam (FY) | Insurance | +21.6% | -70.5% | -28.3% | 11.7x | — |
| Old Mutual (FY) | Insurance | +35.5% | +63.6% | +9.6% | 6.4x | — |
| ASBN (Q1) | — | +71.6% | n/a | -31.5% | 9.0x | 7.8% |
| MTN Group (FY) | Telecom | +20.6% | +112.0% | +316.3% | 20.6x | — |
| Standard Bank Group (FY) | Banks | +6.7% | n/a | +11.8% | 10.2x | — |
| KCEL (FY) | — | -20.5% | +18.7% | +46.3% | 93.7x | 0.0% |
| KSPI (Q1) | — | +26.9% | n/a | -0.8% | 14.1x | 0.0% |
| Vodacom Group (FY) | Telecom | +10.1% | +18.7% | +24.4% | 14.5x | — |
| Shoprite Holdings (H1) | Retail | +7.2% | +6.2% | -0.3% | 20.1x | — |
| Sibanye-Stillwater (FY) | Gold & PGM mining | +15.6% | +61.1% | +29.1% | n/m | — |