Kazakhstan Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

On August 25, KCEL reported Q2 2026 results: revenue grew 13.4% YoY, EBITDA margin was 39.2%, and net profit was KZT 7.9 billion. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: the portal's model implies +8% upside, but weak operating cash flow and high debt cap the upside.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 13.4% YoY to KZT 135.4 billion

— EBITDA margin of 39.2% is above the average of the last four quarters

— Net profit of KZT 7.9 billion is almost double a year earlier

— Operating cash flow of KZT 15.1 billion is only 11% of revenue

— Debt rose to KZT 217.2 billion over the year, debt/EBITDA at 1.51

— The portal's model implies +8% upside for the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Q2 revenue grew 13.4% YoY to KZT 135.4 billion

In Q2 2026, KCEL's revenue reached KZT 135.4 billion, up 13.4% year-on-year. This is an acceleration from Q1, where growth was 5.9% – the trend is clearly gaining momentum.

The main contribution, judging by the business structure, comes from growth in mobile and data services, though the report does not provide a breakdown. What matters is that the company is returning to double-digit growth after a weak start to the year.

EBITDA margin of 39.2% is above the average of the last four quarters

EBITDA for Q2 was KZT 53.0 billion, implying a margin of 39.2% – well above the average of the last four quarters (around 35%). This suggests operating expenses are growing slower than revenue.

The high margin results from cost control and possibly economies of scale. However, EBITDA does not account for capital expenditures, which are significant – KZT 15.7 billion in Q1 alone.

Net profit of KZT 7.9 billion is almost double a year earlier

Net profit in Q2 reached KZT 7.9 billion versus KZT 1.2 billion in Q1 2025 – almost a six-fold increase. Compared to the same quarter last year (Q2 2025 not shown, but the trend is clear), profit doubled.

Net margin stood at 5.8% – modest for telecom, reflecting high debt servicing costs and depreciation. Still, profit is growing faster than revenue, which is positive.

Operating cash flow of KZT 15.1 billion is only 11% of revenue

Operating cash flow in Q2 was KZT 15.1 billion – only 11% of revenue. In contrast, in Q3 2025 OCF was KZT 64.6 billion on revenue of KZT 187.3 billion – cash conversion has notably deteriorated.

The weak conversion likely stems from working capital buildup and interest payments. This is an important signal: profit exists but does not fully materialize in cash, limiting capacity for dividends and debt repayment.

Debt rose to KZT 217.2 billion over the year, debt/EBITDA at 1.51

Net debt at the end of Q2 stood at KZT 217.2 billion, up by KZT 217.2 billion over the year – the company has been actively borrowing. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.51.

The debt increase likely relates to network and spectrum investments, as well as possible M&A. The leverage level is moderate, but if operating cash flow remains weak, debt servicing will consume a growing share of profit.

The portal's model implies +8% upside for the share

According to the portal's model, the fundamental value of the share is 8% above the current market price. This is moderate potential, implying neither significant overvaluation nor clear undervaluation.

The share trades at a P/E of 78.7 and EV/EBITDA of 13.5 – high multiples, especially given ROE of 15.7%. The market has already priced in continued growth, so upside is limited.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2, KCEL showed accelerating revenue growth of 13.4% and a high EBITDA margin of 39.2%, confirming operational efficiency. However, net profit remains modest (5.8% margin), and operating cash flow is weak, questioning the quality of earnings. Debt rose to KZT 217.2 billion, but the debt/EBITDA ratio (1.51) is still acceptable. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: the portal's model implies +8% potential, but stronger upside requires improved cash conversion and lower leverage.

15 августа 2026 года KEGC опубликовала промежуточную консолидированную финансовую отчётность за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка за полугодие выросла на 31% год к году до 240,1 млрд тенге, EBITDA – на 37% до 100,2 млрд тенге, чистая прибыль – на 59% до 54,6 млрд тенге. Однако во втором квартале 2026 года чистая прибыль составила 21,3 млрд тенге, что лишь на 2% выше уровня годичной давности, а квартальная выручка выросла на 19,5%. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA LTM составляет 4,8, что ниже среднего за три года, дивидендная доходность превышает 10%, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в 62%.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue grew 31% to KZT 240.1bn, but Q2 growth slowed to 19.5%

— H1 EBITDA increased 37% to KZT 100.2bn, margin at 41.7%

— H1 net profit rose 59% to KZT 54.6bn, but Q2 growth nearly stalled

— H1 operating cash flow reached KZT 81.6bn, up 17% year-on-year

— Net debt rose KZT 22.8bn in the quarter and KZT 34.3bn over the year, to KZT 104.5bn

— EV/EBITDA LTM is 4.8, below the three-year average, dividend yield at 10.9%

— Portal model implies 62% upside for the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

H1 revenue grew 31% to KZT 240.1bn, but Q2 growth slowed to 19.5%

For H1 2026, KEGC's revenue reached KZT 240.1bn, up 31% from KZT 183.1bn in the same period last year. The main contribution came from Q2: revenue for April–June hit KZT 113.6bn, up 19.5% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, growth was stronger at 43.6%.

The slowdown in Q2 reflects a high base effect: in Q3 2025 revenue grew 20% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025 it was only 3.4%. Still, the absolute revenue level remains high, supported by tariff increases and higher electricity transmission volumes.

H1 EBITDA increased 37% to KZT 100.2bn, margin at 41.7%

H1 2026 EBITDA rose to KZT 100.2bn from KZT 73.1bn a year earlier, up 37%. The EBITDA margin for the half-year was 41.7%, above last year's 39.9%. In Q2 2026, EBITDA was KZT 42.2bn, with a margin of 37.1%.

EBITDA growth was driven by revenue outpacing operating costs. In the half-year report, cost of sales rose 15.8% to KZT 152.6bn, while revenue grew 31%, leading to margin expansion.

H1 net profit rose 59% to KZT 54.6bn, but Q2 growth nearly stalled

H1 2026 net profit was KZT 54.6bn, up 59% from KZT 34.3bn in H1 2025. However, in Q2 2026 net profit was only KZT 21.3bn, up just 2% year-on-year (vs KZT 20.9bn in Q2 2025).

The quarterly dynamics reflect one-off items: in Q2 2026 the company recognised a revaluation loss on property, plant and equipment of KZT 11.5bn and a reversal of a previous revaluation loss of KZT 3.5bn. Excluding these items, operating profit would have grown more, but net profit would still lag revenue growth due to higher finance costs.

H1 operating cash flow reached KZT 81.6bn, up 17% year-on-year

Operating cash flow for H1 2026 was KZT 81.6bn versus KZT 69.7bn a year earlier. The increase was driven by higher pre-tax profit and a positive contribution from working capital changes, although tax and interest payments rose.

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was KZT 37.8bn, down 6.6% from KZT 40.5bn in Q2 2025. This reflects seasonal working capital movements, notably higher receivables and inventories.

Net debt rose KZT 22.8bn in the quarter and KZT 34.3bn over the year, to KZT 104.5bn

As of end-June 2026, KEGC's net debt stood at KZT 104.5bn, up KZT 22.8bn from the previous reporting date and KZT 34.3bn over the last 12 months. The increase is related to financing the capital expenditure programme and dividend payments.

The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio is 0.95, a moderate level for an infrastructure company. Finance costs for the half-year rose to KZT 11.0bn from KZT 10.2bn a year earlier, reflecting higher debt.

EV/EBITDA LTM is 4.8, below the three-year average, dividend yield at 10.9%

KEGC's current market capitalisation is KZT 419.6bn. The EV/EBITDA LTM multiple is 4.8, below the three-year average, which we estimate at around 5.5. P/E LTM is 7.3, also not high for a company with growing revenue and stable margins.

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 10.9%, well above the market average. This makes the share attractive for income-oriented investors.

Portal model implies 62% upside for the share

According to our value-creation model, which uses EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of KEGC's share is 62% above the current market price. This is a calculation based on the portal's model, not a market consensus or a target price.

The share is held in our strategies 'Frontier AI Selection' and 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)'. This is a statement of fact: inclusion in the strategies is not a recommendation but reflects the share meeting certain screening criteria.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The H1 2026 report shows strong revenue and EBITDA growth, supported by tariff dynamics and cost control. H1 net profit rose 59%, but Q2 growth nearly stalled due to one-off revaluation items and higher finance costs. Debt remains moderate at 0.95x EBITDA, and a dividend yield above 10% makes the share attractive for income investors. At the current price, the share looks attractive: multiples are below historical averages, and the portal model indicates significant upside potential. The key question for holders is whether the company can sustain revenue growth and margins amid rising investments and debt.

On August 10, Kaspi.kz reported Q2 2026 results: revenue grew 15% YoY to KZT 1.1 trillion, adjusted EBITDA rose 13.5%, and net profit was nearly flat (-0.7%). At the current price, the share looks attractive: P/E LTM is 8.7 with ROE 37.9%, and the portal's model implies about 9% upside.

Key takeaways

— Revenue +15% YoY, but net profit -0.7%: growth eaten by deposit costs and Turkey investments

— e-Commerce remains the main driver: GMV +28% in constant currency, revenue +35% on ads and delivery

— Fintech: average loan portfolio +18%, but funding costs +150 bps eat EBITDA growth

— Payments: TPV +13%, but revenue +5% — take rate declines, Kaspi Alaqan investments pressure EBITDA

— Dividend raised 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS — company shares cash despite growth costs

— Kasper — AI assistant: early metrics strong, but monetization unclear

— P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%: share is cheap if growth continues, but Turkey and rates are key risks

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Revenue +15% YoY, but net profit -0.7%: growth eaten by deposit costs and Turkey investments

In Q2 2026, Kaspi.kz revenue grew 15% YoY to KZT 1.1 trillion. Growth was driven by e-Commerce, fintech, and payments, but net profit was nearly flat: KZT 256.7 billion versus KZT 258.6 billion a year earlier. The reason is higher interest expenses on deposits and losses from the Turkish business Hepsiburada.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter grew 13.5% to KZT 618.8 billion, but net profit margin fell from 26.7% to 23.3%. The company cites higher funding costs and investments in Turkey, where it completed the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. and rebranded it as Hepsi Bank.

e-Commerce remains the main driver: GMV +28% in constant currency, revenue +35% on ads and delivery

In constant currency, e-Commerce GMV grew 28% YoY to KZT 1.3 trillion, purchases rose 33%. Purchases per consumer increased from 11.6 to 15.8 on an annualized basis. This indicates growing engagement, not just new customer acquisition.

Monetization is accelerating: value-added services revenue (ads and delivery) grew 49% in constant currency, lifting total e-Commerce revenue by 35% to KZT 394 billion. The 3P take rate rose 160 bps YoY to 16.1%.

Fintech: average loan portfolio +18%, but funding costs +150 bps eat EBITDA growth

Average net loan portfolio grew 18% YoY in Q2 to KZT 7.3 trillion. Fintech revenue rose 23% to KZT 455 billion, helped by a shift to longer-duration loans: average portfolio duration increased from 7.7 to 9.0 months.

However, funding costs jumped 150 bps to 14.5% due to rate hikes in Kazakhstan last year. As a result, fintech adjusted EBITDA grew only 6% to KZT 171 billion. The company cut rates on 3-month deposits by 100 bps in August, which should support margins in H2.

Payments: TPV +13%, but revenue +5% — take rate declines, Kaspi Alaqan investments pressure EBITDA

Payments TPV grew 13% YoY to KZT 12.7 trillion, but segment revenue rose only 5% to KZT 169 billion. Take rate declined from 1.07% to 1.00% due to product mix changes, consistent with long-term trends.

Payments adjusted EBITDA fell 1% to KZT 98 billion due to higher technology costs for Kaspi Alaqan, a pay-by-palm system. This is a deliberate investment in future growth, but it currently pressures margins.

Dividend raised 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS — company shares cash despite growth costs

The Board proposed raising the quarterly dividend by 18% to KZT 1,000 per ADS from KZT 850 in Q1 2026. This reflects management's confidence in long-term prospects despite Turkey investments and profit pressure.

Trailing 12-month dividend yield is 3.5%. The company generates enough cash for payouts, although capex in Q2 rose to KZT 56.4 billion.

Kasper — AI assistant: early metrics strong, but monetization unclear

In July, Kaspi.kz began rolling out Kasper, a personal AI shopping assistant. In the first month, about 20% of consumers to whom it was available used it. Roughly 80% of conversations produce a product recommendation, and 60% of those lead to a specific product.

Kasper is not yet directly monetized but should boost engagement and conversion in e-Commerce. The company sees it as the next chapter of its ecosystem, but the financial impact will likely not be visible before 2027.

P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%: share is cheap if growth continues, but Turkey and rates are key risks

With a market cap of KZT 9.3 trillion and LTM net profit of KZT 1.07 trillion, P/E is 8.7. Return on equity is 37.9%, indicating high business efficiency.

The portal's model implies +9% upside to fair value. The share trades cheaply relative to its own history, but the discount is justified by risks: rising funding costs, uncertainty in Turkey, and AI-related spending.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Kaspi.kz continues to grow revenue at double-digit rates, and e-Commerce remains a powerful engine: GMV +28%, revenue +35% in constant currency. However, net profit has been flat for the second consecutive quarter: growth is eaten by interest expenses and Turkish investments. The dividend was raised 18%, signaling management confidence, but the question for shareholders is when Turkey will start contributing profit rather than burning cash. At P/E 8.7 and ROE 37.9%, the share looks attractive if growth resumes; key risks are rates and the timeline to breakeven in Turkey.

В конце апреля CCBN раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: чистая прибыль составила 61,1 млрд тенге, что на 25,1% ниже, чем годом ранее. Процентные доходы выросли на 35,9% до 105,8 млрд тенге, но маржа сжалась, и при текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: P/E LTM 3,16 и ROE 27,9% при потенциале роста по модели портала +26%.

Key takeaways

— Прибыль Q1 2026 упала на 25,1% год к году, несмотря на рост процентных доходов на 35,9%

— Процентные доходы Q1 2026 выросли на 35,9% до 105,8 млрд тенге, но темпы замедлились с 49,8% годом ранее

— Рентабельность капитала 27,9% остаётся высокой, но P/E LTM 3,16 — ниже среднего за три года

— Модель портала оценивает потенциал роста акции в +26% от текущей цены

— Банк торгуется с P/E LTM 3,16, что предполагает дисконт к историческим уровням

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Q1 2026 profit fell 25.1% YoY despite 35.9% interest income growth

In Q1 2026, CCBN's net profit was 61.1 billion tenge, down 25.1% from the same quarter of 2025. Interest income grew 35.9% to 105.8 billion tenge, pointing to margin compression or higher provisioning.

The decline in profit despite revenue growth suggests the bank is either increasing provisions or facing operating costs growing faster than revenue. The report does not disclose the reason, but the trend warrants watching asset quality and efficiency.

Q1 2026 interest income rose 35.9% to 105.8 billion tenge, but growth slowed from 49.8% a year earlier

Interest income for Q1 2026 reached 105.8 billion tenge, up 35.9% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2024 growth was 49.8%, and in Q1 2025 it was 35.9%, meaning growth has been slowing for two consecutive years.

The slowdown in interest income growth alongside falling profit suggests the bank is approaching a yield ceiling amid possible rate cuts or intensifying competition. In Q3 2025, growth also slowed to 16.7% from 46.3% a year earlier, confirming the trend.

ROE of 27.9% remains high, but P/E LTM of 3.16 is below the three-year average

For the trailing twelve months, CCBN's net profit was 267.6 billion tenge, implying an ROE of 27.9% – a high level confirming the bank's ability to generate profit on invested capital.

With a market cap of 844.3 billion tenge, the share trades at a P/E LTM of 3.16, noticeably below the three-year average. The discount may reflect market concerns about slowing growth and margin pressure, but it also creates upside potential for the share price.

The portal's model estimates the share's upside at +26% from the current price

According to the portal's model, based on the ratio of ROE to book value, CCBN's share has an upside of +26% to fair value. This is the model's own calculation, not a market consensus or target price.

The share is included in the 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)' strategy on the portal, reflecting its compliance with fundamental selection criteria. However, this is merely a fact of inclusion, not an argument for buying – the decision should rely on analysis of metrics and risks.

The bank trades at a P/E LTM of 3.16, implying a discount to historical levels

A P/E LTM of 3.16 is a low valuation for a bank with an ROE of 27.9%. Historically, such levels correspond to periods of elevated risks or expectations of deteriorating financial results.

The decline in profit in Q1 2026 and slowing interest income growth may explain the discount. Nevertheless, if the bank maintains profitability at current levels, the current price offers a margin of safety.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

CCBN's strength remains its high ROE of 27.9% and low P/E LTM of 3.16, giving the share upside potential of +26% on the portal's model. However, the 25.1% profit decline in Q1 2026 and slowing interest income growth to 35.9% point to deteriorating operating dynamics. If the bank cannot stabilise its margin or offset higher provisions, the current discount may persist. Still, with ROE near 28%, the share looks rather attractive.

18 августа Halyk Bank раскрыл результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: чистая прибыль упала на 15,3% год к году до 447,6 млрд тенге, а чистый процентный доход вырос лишь на 2,6% до 657,6 млрд тенге. Давление на маржу оказали новые нормативы минимальных резервных требований и ужесточение регулирования розничного кредитования. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: мультипликатор P/E LTM 4,1, дивидендная доходность 13,2%, а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +22%.

Key takeaways

— Чистый процентный доход за полугодие вырос лишь на 2,6% из-за роста стоимости фондирования

— Чистая прибыль сократилась на 15,3%: давление резервных требований и регулирования

— Комиссионный доход упал на 19,6% из-за регулирования BNPL и перекладывания НДС на клиентов

— Стоимость риска осталась на нормализованном уровне 1,4%, резервы растут из-за моратория на продажу проблемных кредитов

— Капитал банка достаточный: k1-1 19,0% при минимуме 9,5%, ROE 24,2%

— P/E LTM 4,1 и дивидендная доходность 13,2% делают акцию дешёвой, модель портала даёт +22% upside

Attractiveness

Key figures, KZT bn

Net interest income for the half-year rose only 2.6% due to higher funding costs

Interest income for the first half of 2026 rose 12.2% year-on-year to KZT 1,446.2bn, but interest expense jumped 21.6% to KZT 788.5bn. The bank attributes this to higher average rates and balances on customer accounts, as well as a larger share of KZT deposits. As a result, net interest income grew only 2.6% to KZT 657.6bn.

Net interest margin declined to 6.8% from 7.3% a year earlier. The bank links this to new minimum reserve requirement coefficients; without this effect, NIM would have been 7.2%. In Q2 2026, NIM was 6.7% versus 7.1% in Q2 2025.

Net profit fell 15.3%: pressure from reserve requirements and regulation

Net profit for the first half of 2026 was KZT 447.6bn, 15.3% lower than the same period last year. The bank explicitly cites higher minimum reserve requirements, tighter retail lending regulation, and an increase in the average rate on customer deposits while the average loan rate stayed flat.

Return on average equity for the half-year fell to 24.8% per annum from 33.6% a year earlier, but remains high. For the trailing twelve months, ROE is 24.2%.

Fee income fell 19.6% due to BNPL regulation and VAT pass-through to clients

Net fee and commission income for the half-year fell 19.6% year-on-year to KZT 54.5bn. The bank attributes this to negative dynamics in BNPL transactional income amid tighter underwriting due to regulatory changes, as well as the gradual pass-through of VAT on certain banking services to clients.

In Q2 2026, net fee income rose 18.4% versus Q1, suggesting the decline may be slowing. Still, for the half-year, the fee line remains a drag on overall results.

Cost of risk stayed at a normalized 1.4%, provisions rise due to moratorium on selling problem loans

Expected credit loss expense for the half-year rose 69.1% to KZT 104.0bn, but the cost of risk on loans to customers stayed at a normalized 1.4% per annum, same as a year earlier. The bank notes that provisions are in line with its full-year guidance.

Stage 3 loans increased to 8.6% at the end of the half-year. The reason is the continuing moratorium on selling problem retail loans to collection agencies, as well as lower retail portfolio growth. This means asset quality formally deteriorates, but the bank cannot offload problem debt from its balance sheet.

Bank capital is ample: k1-1 19.0% versus a 9.5% minimum, ROE 24.2%

As of end-June 2026, Halyk Bank's capital adequacy (unconsolidated) stood at 19.0% for k1-1, k1-2 and k2, against minimum requirements of 9.5%, 10.5% and 12%, respectively. This gives the bank a significant buffer for growth and dividend payments.

Total equity rose 4.1% over the half-year to KZT 3,643.1bn, driven by earned profit. Return on equity for the trailing twelve months is 24.2%, still a high level for the banking sector.

P/E LTM 4.1 and dividend yield 13.2% make the share cheap, portal model gives +22% upside

With a market cap of KZT 4,218.5bn and trailing twelve-month net profit of KZT 1,018.2bn, P/E LTM is 4.1. This is a low multiple for a bank with ROE of 24.2% and a dividend yield of 13.2% over the trailing twelve months.

Our portal model estimates the share's upside to fair value at +22%. This is the portal's own calculation, not a market consensus. The share is held in our model strategies 'KZ Fundamental potential (AI)', reflecting its attractiveness by our criteria.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Halyk's results for the first half of 2026 reflect a tougher regulatory environment: net profit fell 15.3% and net interest margin shrank to 6.8% due to new reserve requirements. Still, the bank maintains high return on equity (24.2% over twelve months) and a strong balance sheet with capital adequacy of 19.0% versus a 9.5% minimum. The share trades at P/E LTM of 4.1 with a dividend yield of 13.2%, which looks cheap, and the portal model implies +22% upside. The key question for holders is whether the bank can adapt to the new regulatory conditions and restore profit growth; if pressure persists, the current valuation may be justified.

This earnings season, the market's center of gravity shifted violently toward cyclical industrials and commodity chemicals, leaving the energy complex and defensive consumer names in the dust. The median revenue growth spread between the hottest sector (memory chips at +256.8%) and the coldest (gas processing at -33.2%) stretched to a staggering 290 percentage points. Even more telling, the leaders—SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, Fertiglobe—are not just growing; they are compounding off a depressed base, while laggards like ADNOC Gas and Santos show that scale alone no longer guarantees momentum.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Memory and semiconductors are in a supercycle, with revenue growth that makes other sectors look like they're standing still

SK hynix's revenue exploded +256.8% year over year, with EBITDA up +420.9%, and the company swung to a net profit—a breathtaking recovery from the depths of the memory downturn. Samsung Electronics followed with +130.0% revenue growth and +398.6% EBITDA, while its P/E of 9.8x suggests the market is still pricing in cyclicality rather than a structural upcycle. Fertiglobe, the fertilizer maker, delivered +91.9% revenue growth and a net profit surge of +466.8%, riding a rebound in nitrogen prices that most analysts had written off.

The energy patch is the sick man of this season, with gas processing and oil transport showing severe contraction or stagnation

ADNOC Gas was the worst performer among large caps, with revenue down -33.2% and net profit halved (-52.0%), a stark reminder that LNG prices have normalized after last year's spike. Santos, the Australian producer, managed only +1.6% revenue growth, with EBITDA down -17.6% and net profit -19.1%, while Air Arabia's net profit collapsed -74.9% on -0.2% revenue growth, showing that cost inflation can crush even flat-line businesses. The only bright spot was ADNOC Distribution, whose +52.8% revenue growth and +94.3% net profit surge proved that fuel retail can still deliver when volumes and margins align.

The plot twist: gold miners are not just hedging—they are compounding, with Genesis Minerals growing revenue at triple digits

While the market fixated on tech and energy, gold miners delivered a quiet but powerful acceleration. Genesis Minerals saw revenue growth accelerate from +89.4% to a three-year CAGR of +182.9%, with net profit up +172.1%—a demonstration that M&A-driven growth can work in a rising gold price environment. Gold Fields also impressed with revenue up +70.7% and net profit +80.6%, while Harmony Gold's net profit more than doubled (+104.0%). The surprise is that these companies are trading at reasonable multiples (Harmony at 6.9x P/E, Gold Fields at 9.7x), suggesting the market has not yet fully repriced the durability of their cash flows.

Valuation opportunity is in high-growth cyclicals, not in defensive 'quality' names that the market still prices for perfection

The most compelling value is in companies growing fast but trading cheap. Emaar Development grew revenue +32.1% and net profit +43.6%, yet trades at a P/E of just 3.9x and EV/EBITDA of 0.7x—a mispricing that seems untenable if Dubai's property cycle persists. Similarly, KEGC, the Kazakh power grid, grew revenue +31.1% and net profit +59.4%, with a P/E of 7.1x and an 10.9% dividend yield, offering both growth and income. On the other end, Nu Holdings trades at 131.1x earnings despite slowing revenue growth (+57.2% but decelerating from +43.4% prior), and Hanwha Systems at 73.3x P/E with revenue growth of +45.5%—the market is paying up for defense exposure, but the multiple leaves no room for error.

Income investors can find double-digit yields in unexpected places—Kazakhstan and South Africa, not just the Gulf

Halyk Bank leads the pack with a dividend yield of 13.5% (DPS 51.1 tenge, price 379.05 tenge), despite net profit falling -15.3%—the payout is supported by a P/E of just 4.2x. KEGC offers 10.9% yield (DPS 161.9 tenge, price 1489.02 tenge), and KZTO, the oil transport company, yields 9.9% (DPS 118.0 tenge, price 1192.02 tenge), with revenue growth of +10.3% and net profit +36.3%. These yields are not just high—they are backed by earnings growth, unlike some Gulf names where dividends may be at risk if energy prices soften further.

The long view favors compounders like Genesis Minerals and Hanwha Aerospace, but the near-term watch is on energy and consumer names that are losing momentum

Genesis Minerals' three-year revenue CAGR of +182.9% is the standout in this dataset, dwarfing even the memory-chip boom, and Hanwha Aerospace's +55.8% CAGR shows defense spending is a structural tailwind. However, the warning signs are in the energy patch: ADNOC Gas's 3-year CAGR is n/a, but its -33.2% revenue decline this quarter suggests the LNG boom has reversed, and Santos's -14.0% CAGR points to a portfolio that is shrinking. As we look to the next quarter, the key question is whether the semiconductor upcycle can broaden beyond memory into other segments, and whether gold miners can maintain their momentum if bullion prices pause. Watch for any signs of margin compression in the high-flying cyclicals—that would be the first crack in this season's winning trade.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

Five of the fourteen issuers in our Kazakh coverage have disclosed the half-year ended 30 June 2026. Every figure below was checked page by page against the reports themselves: the automated parser produced four different kinds of error on these companies. Across these five the main point is visible - almost nowhere is the profit growth operational.

- Kcell: net profit 7,912mn tenge (+40.5%), its best half-year in three years. But operating cash flow fell from 43,394 to 15,050mn, capex was 52,634mn, and free cash flow came in at minus 37.6bn.

- Kcell's report now carries a going concern section: current liabilities exceeded current assets by 43,352mn tenge.

- KEGOC: revenue 240,073mn (+31.1%), net profit 54,624mn (+59.4%). It is the only name where profit outrunning revenue is operational - cost of sales rose 15.8% against revenue up 31.1%.

- KazTransOil: operating profit up 6.7% while net profit rose 33.4% - the difference came from finance income of 14,628mn against 6,610mn, earned on deposits at 15-17.85%.

- Halyk is the only one with falling profit: 447,567mn tenge, down 15.3%. Air Astana swung to a loss of 21mn dollars on revenue up 16.1%.

What this says about the market

Three of the five disclosed companies grew profit, but in none of them is that growth purely operational. At Kcell it is funded by debt against negative free cash flow; at KazTransOil it comes from interest income at high policy rates; and only at KEGOC does the outperformance come from the business itself - and even there it is paid for by a third of additional debt in six months.

The practical conclusion: headline profit tells you nothing about this market this season. Look at operating cash flow and at what paid for the growth.

Who is missing and why

KazMunayGas, Kaspi.kz, Kazakhtelecom, ForteBank and Bank CenterCredit have not disclosed the half-year yet.

Kazatomprom has disclosed it, and that one is on us: the six-month 2026 report is on the company's website but has not yet made it into our data.

AltynGold and Solidcore report semi-annually but publish in September: last year Solidcore released its half-year report on 11 September.

Freedom Holding is left out of the comparison: its financial year ends on 31 March, so the period ending 30 June is its first fiscal quarter, not a calendar half-year.

Gold has stopped falling and started rising again. AltynGold is the cheapest listed way to own that: it trades at 4.0x EV/EBITDA against a median of 6.7x for the gold producers we cover, it has tripled production in three years and can roughly double it again, its costs are a sixth below the Russian majors and rising at half their rate, and on current prices and its own guidance it will report record numbers this year. Below is the case in six parts, then what sits inside the discount. Figures are as at 10 August 2026.

1. Gold has turned, and the share moves at twice the metal

Gold bottomed at $3,979 an ounce on 16 July and trades at $4,355, up 11%. AltynGold bottomed a day later at 814p and trades at 1,043p, up 28% - and 6% of that came today. That ratio is the whole point of owning a producer rather than the metal: with an all-in sustaining cost of $1,562 an ounce, every dollar of price lands in the margin, and the equity moves at roughly twice the metal. It did so on the way down too - gold fell 21% from its January peak and the shares fell 42% - so this is leverage, not alpha. What matters is that the direction has changed.

2. Production has tripled in three years and can roughly double again

Gold poured went 33,110 ounces in 2023, 37,279 in 2024 and 53,852 in 2025 - a 63% jump in milled tonnes did the work in the final year as the plant reached its rated 1 million tonnes. 2026 is a deliberate plateau: guidance of 50,000-55,000 ounces while the mine catches up with the mill. The next step is already named - processing capacity to 2-2.5 million tonnes a year and production above 100,000 ounces, with a market update promised over the summer, plus a production licence for the adjacent Teren-Sai deposit expected by the end of 2026.

Reserves are not the constraint, and that holds even in the most aggressive expansion case. Proved and probable reserves at Sekisovskoye are 33.45 million tonnes containing 3.80 Moz; at the full 2.5 million tonnes a year that is thirteen years of milling from reserves alone. Add the inferred resource sitting between -400 and -800 metres - another 37.15 million tonnes - and it is twenty-eight years. Add Teren-Sai's 16.43 million tonnes and 1.45 Moz and it is thirty-five. Even doubling and a half the mill leaves a runway measured in decades, and the resource base is larger than the reserves: the annual report puts the projects at roughly 8.42 Moz including the exploration result below -800 metres. Expanding pulls those ounces forward, which is worth doing at $4,355 gold and much less obviously worth doing at $2,000.

3. Costs are 16% below the Russian producers and rising half as fast

AltynGold's all-in sustaining cost went from $1,318 to $1,562 an ounce in 2025, up 19%. That is fast, and it is the number to watch as the mine deepens. But the comparison that matters is with the peers an investor would otherwise buy: the median all-in sustaining cost of the large listed Russian gold producers - Polyus, BTS-Gold and Seligdar - rose 39% to $1,860 an ounce in 2025, on Expert RA data. AltynGold is 16% cheaper per ounce and its costs grew at half the rate.

Part of the difference is currency, and it is worth getting the direction right. The tenge weakened against the dollar through 2025 - 471 to 521 on the annual average - which held dollar costs down; the 19% increase happened despite the currency, not because of it. The rouble did the opposite, and the strong rouble is one of the three reasons the analysts give for the 39% Russian increase, alongside a mineral extraction tax tied to the gold price and wages. The position then reversed: the tenge strengthened from about 538 in September 2025 to 452 on 9 July 2026, some 16%, which is the cost headwind inside this year's numbers. But it has since turned again - 466 today, 3% off that low - and that turn began the same week gold bottomed. If it continues, the 2027 cost line gets the tailwind Kazakhstan had in 2025 and Russia never got.

The same mineral extraction tax mechanism applies in Kazakhstan and it is the reason not all of a price rise reaches the bottom line. In 2025 revenue rose $78.9m and EBITDA rose $50.5m: 64% of the incremental revenue reached EBITDA and 36% was absorbed by tax, depth and contractor rates that follow the metal. Useful to know before extrapolating a gold rally into profit.

4. This year's results will be records - and they are already largely locked in

Most of 2026 is locked in. Gold averaged $4,684 in the first half against $3,074 in the first half of 2025 - up 52% - and the company realised $4,809 in the first quarter on revenue of $56.3m, itself up 122% year on year. On guidance of 50,000-55,000 ounces and a blended realisation near $4,490, the mid case gives revenue of about $236m, EBITDA of about $155m and net profit near $100m at the guided 24.4% tax rate. Against 2025: revenue $175.4m, EBITDA $101.4m, net profit $62.0m.

Free cash flow is the striking line: EBITDA of $155m less about $32m of cash tax and $9m of sustaining capital leaves roughly $113m before any growth spending, against a market capitalisation of $381m. Nearly a third of the company's value in one year. The caveat is real and 2025 supplies it - the same arithmetic would have predicted $76m and the company converted $40m, because $28m went into a build of unsold gold inventory when the state refiner paused acceptance at year end. The first quarter suggests that is unwinding: 11,532 ounces sold against 10,664 poured.

Reporting dates: the second-quarter operational update is due around 21 August on this year's cadence, with production and revenue only. The interim financial statements, with the balance sheet, follow in late September - the company discloses financials twice a year.

5. Net debt disappears this year, dividends start in 2028

Net debt fell from $49.7m to $18.5m during 2025 - 0.18 times EBITDA - after repaying $34.1m of borrowings. On the 2026 forecast and before any expansion spending, that turns into net cash of roughly $95m by year end, or about $123m if the working capital comes back in full. The company will not finish the year there, because the expansion and a tailings dam will absorb part of it, but the direction is not in doubt.

On dividends the position is explicit: the directors did not recommend a payment for 2025 and paid none for 2024, and the board says it continues to review the introduction of a policy. The reason is visible in the debt schedule. Bank borrowings of $21.2m at 6-7% fall due during 2027 and the $10m Astana bond at an 11.25% coupon matures in July 2027, so about $31m comes due in a single year, alongside the second $10m bond in April 2028 and the unfunded expansion. Three claims on the same cash, in that order.

So the realistic first payment is against the 2027 year, paid in 2028, once the maturities are behind and the expansion is either funded or finished. The single broker covering the stock forecasts a free cash flow yield above 20% by 2027 and says that would leave ample room to start paying. To put a number on it: a 30-50% payout of a net profit near $90-100m would be $27-50m, which on today's market value is a yield of 7-14%. That is our arithmetic on a policy that does not yet exist, not company guidance - but it explains why the dividend question is worth tracking rather than dismissing.

6. The shares cost half the sector multiple

AltynGold trades at 3.96x EV/EBITDA after today's move. The eight listed gold producers we cover trade between 4.1x and 11.0x with a median of 6.7x, as the table below sets out. Four independent methods put fair value above the current $381m: our commodity model at an unchanged multiple gives $413m, the share's own median multiple since January 2024 gives $438m, its upper quartile $489m, and Ernst & Young's asset valuation disclosed in the annual report gives $475-519m for Sekisovskoye plus Teren-Sai. None of them requires the gold price to rise.

Listed gold producers in our coverage, EV/EBITDA on the last reported year

The EY figure deserves its footnote because it points the opposite way to the usual assumption. Its modifying factors are disclosed: a long-term gold price of $1,280 an ounce, recovery of 83% and an underground mining cost of $425 an ounce. The cost assumption is far too low - the report itself notes the current cash cost is around $1,250 - but the gold price is under a third of today's, and the report says so, observing that prices are trending near $4,800. Margin under EY's assumptions is $855 an ounce against about $3,090 now. So $475-519m is a floor struck at a $1,280 gold price, not a target.

What the discount contains is worth naming precisely rather than waving at. The London listing brings real disclosure - IFRS accounts, an audit, RNS announcements, a competent person's report - which is more than most frontier producers offer, but it sits on the transition segment, outside the indices. The board is the family: Kanat Assaubayev chairs it, his sons Aidar and Sanzhar sit on it as chief executive and director, and free float is 34%. The related-party note shows $2,959,000 recoverable from a family-controlled company with $843,000 already provisioned against it, and $486,132 of legal fees to a firm where a non-executive director is a partner, unpaid at year end. In June the board confirmed questions about a preliminary request for an investigation arising from a family inheritance dispute involving a shareholder, saying the matter does not concern the company. Liquidity is thin: about 81,000 shares a day, roughly $1m. None of that is a reason the multiple cannot re-rate, but all of it is a reason it has not.

What would close the gap

Three things, in the order they arrive. The second-quarter operational update around 21 August, which should show the grade back near 2.0 g/t after the upper-horizon work finished in April. The expansion announcement promised for the summer, which turns an unfunded ambition into a costed plan - and carries the one real financing risk, since a company with a 34% float and no dividend has obvious reasons to consider equity if the bill is large. Then the interim accounts in late September, where net debt near zero would confirm that the working capital came back. A re-rating from 3.96x to the peer median of 6.7x is worth roughly 74% before any change in the gold price. The other half of that gap has already closed: at 1,043p the shares have reached their own historical median multiple of 3.94x, so what is left is the distance to the sector, not to their own past.