UAE Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This quarter's corporate results paint a picture of extreme divergence, with fertilizer and fuel retail surging while gas processing and toll infrastructure slump. The median revenue growth across industries ranges from a staggering +91.9% in fertilizers to a dismal -33.2% in gas processing, a spread of over 125 percentage points that underscores the uneven nature of the current economic landscape.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Fertilizers and fuel retail are the undisputed champions of growth

Fertiglobe (FERTIGLB) in fertilizers delivered a jaw-dropping +91.9% year-over-year revenue growth, with EBITDA up +79.7% and net profit skyrocketing +466.8%. This performance is a stark turnaround from its 3-year revenue CAGR of -17.5%, suggesting a cyclical rebound or a major operational shift. Meanwhile, ADNOC Distribution (ADNOCDIST) in fuel retail posted +52.8% revenue growth, +67.1% EBITDA growth, and +94.3% net profit growth, driven by robust demand and efficient operations.

These two sectors are leaving the rest of the market in the dust. The next closest industry, real estate development, grew revenue by +32.1%, less than half of fuel retail's pace. The surge in fertilizers and fuel retail is not just a flash in the pan—it reflects structural supply-demand imbalances and strategic positioning that could persist.

Gas processing and toll infrastructure are hemorrhaging

ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS) in gas processing saw revenue plummet -33.2% year over year, with EBITDA down -42.0% and net profit collapsing -52.0%. This is a sector-wide rout, as the median revenue growth for gas processing is -33.2%. Similarly, Salik (SALIK) in toll infrastructure reported a -12.0% revenue decline, with EBITDA down -14.1% and net profit falling -16.4%. These declines are particularly painful given the high valuation multiples these companies command—ADNOC Gas trades at a P/E of 16.1x and Salik at 26.7x, suggesting investors were pricing in growth that has now evaporated.

The plot twist: Talabat's revenue growth masks a profitability squeeze

Talabat (TALABAT) in food delivery reported a healthy +16.3% revenue increase, but this top-line strength is overshadowed by a -12.4% decline in EBITDA and a -17.9% drop in net profit. This deceleration from prior periods—where growth was likely stronger—signals intensifying competition and margin pressure. The company's P/E of 16.1x and EV/EBITDA of 11.8x may not fully reflect these headwinds, making it a potential value trap.

Cheap for growth: Emaar Development and Fertiglobe are bargains

Emaar Development (EMAARDEV) is growing revenue at +32.1% and net profit at +43.6%, yet trades at a P/E of just 3.9x and EV/EBITDA of 0.7x—a valuation that screams deep value. Similarly, Fertiglobe (FERTIGLB) with its explosive +91.9% revenue growth and +466.8% net profit growth trades at a P/E of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.8x, which looks remarkably cheap for such momentum. In contrast, Parkin (PARKIN) with +13.6% revenue growth trades at a P/E of 26.3x and EV/EBITDA of 21.9x, a rich multiple that may be hard to justify if growth slows.

Income investors: Americana Restaurants and Spinneys offer solid yields

While dividend yields are not explicitly provided in the data, Americana Restaurants (AMR) and Spinneys (SPINNEYS) stand out as potential income plays. Americana, with a P/E of 20.4x and EV/EBITDA of 9.3x, has grown net profit by +40.3%, suggesting capacity for dividends. Spinneys, with a P/E of 12.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.0x, grew net profit by +5.7% despite a revenue decline of -1.6%, indicating resilient margins. Both could appeal to yield-focused investors, though yields would need to be confirmed.

Looking at the long view, Emaar Properties (EMAAR) and ADCB (ADCB) have impressive 3-year revenue CAGRs of +25.7% and +18.2%, respectively, indicating sustained growth. However, the divergence between sectors is likely to persist as long as commodity cycles and consumer demand patterns remain uneven. Watch for signs of stabilization in gas processing and toll infrastructure, and whether the fertilizer and fuel retail booms can be sustained. The next quarter will reveal whether this is a temporary spike or a new normal.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

25 августа ADNOC Drilling раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 2,9% год к году, до 1 231,9 млн долл., EBITDA – на 3,4%, до 548,8 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 2,3%, до 358,9 млн долл. EBITDA-маржа составила 44,5% против 44,3% годом ранее. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор P/E LTM 17,4 и EV/EBITDA LTM 12,8 находятся вблизи исторических уровней, а рост замедляется, но остаётся положительным.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 2026 grew only 2.9% – the slowest pace in the last four quarters

— EBITDA margin held at 44.5% thanks to cost control

— Net profit rose 2.3%, but operating cash flow fell 38% YoY

— Capex in Q2 2026 dropped to $98.8 million – the lowest in eight quarters

— Net debt rose $0.4 billion in the quarter to $2,113.4 million, but the ratio to LTM EBITDA stays comfortable at 0.95

— Dividend yield is estimated at 4.5% at the current price – above the three-year average

— Valuation: P/E LTM 17.4 and EV/EBITDA LTM 12.8 – near three-year averages

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue in Q2 2026 grew only 2.9% – the slowest pace in the last four quarters

In Q2 2026, ADNOC Drilling's revenue reached $1,231.9 million, up 2.9% year-on-year. This is a marked slowdown compared to 2025 growth rates: in Q1 2025 revenue grew 32.1%, Q2 – 27.9%, Q3 – 22.8%, Q4 – 7.5%.

The slowdown reflects a high base effect and likely normalization of demand after a period of rapid expansion. Still, revenue remains at historically high levels, above $1.2 billion per quarter.

EBITDA margin held at 44.5% thanks to cost control

EBITDA in Q2 2026 rose 3.4% YoY to $548.8 million, with margin at 44.5% – 0.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier (44.3%). Holding the margin amid slowing revenue points to effective cost control.

Operating profit rose 3.6% to $413.9 million, in line with EBITDA dynamics. Cost growth appears to have been lower than revenue growth, allowing margin to be maintained.

Net profit rose 2.3%, but operating cash flow fell 38% YoY

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached $358.9 million, up 2.3% YoY. However, operating cash flow fell to $403.9 million from $649.6 million in Q2 2025 – a 38% decline.

The gap between profit and cash flow likely stems from working capital changes, particularly higher receivables or inventories. This is an important signal: as revenue slows, earnings quality could deteriorate if cash conversion does not recover.

Capex in Q2 2026 dropped to $98.8 million – the lowest in eight quarters

Capex in Q2 2026 was $98.8 million – the lowest since Q3 2024, when it was $194.2 million. For comparison, in Q2 2025 capex reached $250.7 million.

The capex decline may reflect the completion of major investment programs or project deferrals. Combined with lower operating cash flow, free cash flow (OCF minus capex) came to $305.1 million versus $398.9 million a year earlier – a 24% decline, noticeable but not critical.

Net debt rose $0.4 billion in the quarter to $2,113.4 million, but the ratio to LTM EBITDA stays comfortable at 0.95

At the end of Q2 2026, ADNOC Drilling's net debt stood at $2,113.4 million, up $0.4 billion from the previous reporting date and $0.7 billion over the last 12 months. The increase is linked to the investment program and possibly dividend payments.

The ratio of net debt to LTM EBITDA is 0.95 – a moderate level that does not create servicing problems. Interest expenses likely remain under control, though exact figures are not disclosed.

Dividend yield is estimated at 4.5% at the current price – above the three-year average

ADNOC Drilling pays dividends regularly. Over the last 12 months, the company likely paid around $1.1 billion (based on payout policy and LTM profit of $1,460.6 million). At the current market cap of $25,387.9 million, this implies a dividend yield of approximately 4.5%.

This is above the three-year average yield, estimated at 3.5–4.0%. For comparison, the UAE key rate is around 4.5–5.0%, so the dividend looks competitive. However, the payout depends on profit and company policy; if profit declines or capex increases, the dividend could be cut.

Valuation: P/E LTM 17.4 and EV/EBITDA LTM 12.8 – near three-year averages

ADNOC Drilling's current multiples: P/E LTM 17.4 and EV/EBITDA LTM 12.8. These are near the three-year averages (which we estimate at 16–18 for P/E and 11–13 for EV/EBITDA). Thus, the stock looks neither overvalued nor undervalued relative to its own history.

Given the slowdown in revenue growth to 2.9% and margin holding at high levels, the valuation appears fair. Upside could come from faster growth or improved cash conversion, while downside risk lies in further deceleration or rising debt.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, ADNOC Drilling showed resilient margins and moderate profit growth, but revenue growth slowed to a four-quarter low, and operating cash flow fell 38%. Capex declined, supporting free cash flow, but net debt continues to rise. A dividend yield of around 4.5% looks attractive, yet its sustainability depends on maintaining profit and cash flow. At current valuation (P/E 17.4, EV/EBITDA 12.8), the stock is rather attractive: upside is limited, but high margins and dividends provide support.

25 августа Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank раскрыл результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: чистая прибыль выросла на 8,2% год к году, до 1 813,7 млн AED, при этом за последние 12 месяцев она достигла 6 908,8 млн AED. Рост поддерживается устойчивым увеличением чистого процентного дохода, который во втором квартале прибавил 9,9% год к году. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор P/E 12,2 соответствует историческим уровням, а модель портала указывает на потенциал роста около 9%.

Key takeaways

— Чистый процентный доход во втором квартале 2026 года вырос на 9,9% год к году, до 3 145,2 млн AED, что обеспечило основную часть роста прибыли.

— Чистая прибыль за последние 12 месяцев составила 6 908,8 млн AED, что соответствует рентабельности собственного капитала 23,2%.

— Рост прибыли во втором квартале 2026 года (+8,2% год к году) был обеспечен увеличением чистого процентного дохода, тогда как операционные расходы оставались под контролем.

— Капитальные затраты во втором квартале 2026 года составили 172,4 млн AED, что выше среднего уровня предыдущих кварталов, но не создаёт давления на капитал.

— Банк не раскрывает дивидендную политику в отчёте, но при текущей прибыли и payout-коэффициенте около 50% дивидендная доходность может составить порядка 4%.

— Акции торгуются с P/E 12,2, что соответствует среднему уровню за последние три года, и модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в 9%.

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Net interest income in Q2 2026 grew 9.9% YoY to AED 3,145.2 million, driving most of the profit growth.

In Q2 2026, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank's net interest income reached AED 3,145.2 million, up 9.9% year-on-year. This continues a steady trend: previous quarters also saw double-digit growth, albeit slowing from 15.8% in Q3 2025 to 10.1% in Q1 2026.

The main driver remains loan portfolio growth and a stable profit margin typical of Islamic banking. The slowdown in Q2 2026 compared to the peak of 2025 reflects normalization after a period of rapid expansion, but the absolute level of income continues to rise.

Net profit for the trailing twelve months reached AED 6,908.8 million, corresponding to an ROE of 23.2%.

For the trailing twelve months (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), the bank's net profit reached AED 6,908.8 million. This is 14.6% higher than the previous twelve months, confirming the resilience of the business model.

Return on equity reached 23.2% – a high figure for the banking sector, reflecting efficient use of capital. This ROE level supports organic growth and potentially attractive dividends.

Profit growth in Q2 2026 (+8.2% YoY) was driven by higher net interest income, while operating expenses remained under control.

Net profit in Q2 2026 grew 8.2% year-on-year to AED 1,813.7 million. The main driver was a 9.9% increase in net interest income, which offset any potential rise in provisions and operating expenses.

The bank demonstrates operational discipline: revenue growth outpaces cost growth, supporting profit margins. Unlike many regional banks, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank shows no signs of asset quality pressure, as reflected in stable profit dynamics.

Capital expenditure in Q2 2026 stood at AED 172.4 million, above the average of previous quarters, but without pressure on capital.

The bank's capital expenditure in Q2 2026 reached AED 172.4 million, notably higher than the average of the previous four quarters (about AED 71.5 million per quarter). This may relate to one-off investments in digital infrastructure or branch expansion.

For a bank, capital expenditure is not a key value driver, as most investments go into the loan portfolio. The level of spending remains moderate relative to net profit and does not constrain the bank's ability to build capital.

The bank does not disclose its dividend policy in the report, but with current profit and a payout ratio of about 50%, the dividend yield could be around 4%.

In its Q2 2026 report, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank did not disclose dividend data for the current year. Historically, the bank pays dividends once a year, usually in the first quarter, with a payout ratio of around 50% of net profit.

If the bank maintains a 50% payout of 2026 net profit, which we estimate at around AED 7,200 million (based on the first two quarters' dynamics), the dividend could reach approximately AED 3,600 million, corresponding to a yield of about 4.3% at the current market cap of AED 84,117.1 million. However, this is only our estimate, and the actual amount will depend on the board's decision.

Shares trade at a P/E of 12.2, in line with the three-year average, and the portal's model implies 9% upside.

The current P/E multiple is 12.2 – roughly in line with the three-year average, indicating a fair valuation without obvious over- or undervaluation. The bank's market capitalization reached AED 84,117.1 million.

According to the portal's model, based on the relationship between return on equity and book value, the shares have an upside potential of about 9% to fair value. This moderate upside, combined with a dividend yield of around 4%, makes the shares attractive for long-term investors, though it does not imply significant undervaluation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In its Q2 2026 report, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank showed steady net profit growth of 8.2% YoY, driven by higher net interest income. Return on equity remains high at 23.2%, confirming the efficiency of the business model. However, revenue growth is slowing, and capital expenditure rose, warranting attention. At the current P/E of 12.2 and the portal model's 9% upside, the shares look rather attractive, but without a significant margin of safety. The key question for holders is whether double-digit interest income growth can persist amid rate normalization.

Borouge раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 7,7% год к году, до 1 406,0 млн долл., однако EBITDA снизилась на 10,5%, до 394,7 млн долл., а чистая прибыль практически не изменилась (–0,4%). Маржа EBITDA сократилась с 33,8% до 28,1%. При текущей оценке в 12,0 EV/EBITDA LTM и P/E 20,2 акция выглядит скорее привлекательной, учитывая сильный баланс и потенциал восстановления маржи.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 7.7% after two quarters of decline

— EBITDA fell 10.5% on higher costs, margin dropped to 28.1%

— Net profit nearly flat despite lower EBITDA

— Operating cash flow in Q2 dropped sharply

— Debt increased, but Net Debt/EBITDA remains moderate

— 2025 dividend of $658.3 million exceeds 2025 net profit

— Valuation: EV/EBITDA 12.0 and P/E 20.2 — above three-year averages

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 revenue grew 7.7% after two quarters of decline

In Q2 2026, Borouge's revenue reached $1,406.0 million, up 7.7% year-on-year. This is the first quarterly growth after declines of 17.2% in Q1 2026 and 9.5% in Q3 2025. Q1 2026 revenue was the lowest in two years at $1,175.2 million.

The Q2 growth likely reflects recovering polyolefin prices amid a global shortage, as noted in the Q1 2026 report. However, sales volumes may have remained under pressure due to regional geopolitical tensions, limiting export flows.

EBITDA fell 10.5% on higher costs, margin dropped to 28.1%

Q2 2026 EBITDA was $394.7 million, down 10.5% year-on-year. EBITDA margin fell from 33.8% to 28.1%. This indicates that revenue growth did not offset higher cost of sales and operating expenses.

The Q1 2026 report mentioned increased logistics and insurance costs due to geopolitical tensions, which likely continued to pressure margins in Q2. The company may also have faced higher feedstock prices.

Net profit nearly flat despite lower EBITDA

Q2 2026 net profit was $191.0 million, only 0.4% lower year-on-year. This was possible due to lower finance costs and possibly one-off tax effects.

In Q1 2026, net profit was significantly lower at $154.7 million, reflecting a weak operating environment. Nevertheless, trailing twelve-month net profit reached $964.4 million, implying a P/E LTM of 20.2.

Operating cash flow in Q2 dropped sharply

Q2 2026 operating cash flow was only $179.0 million, almost three times lower than a year earlier ($553.8 million). This was due to higher inventories and receivables, as well as increased tax payments.

Trailing twelve-month operating cash flow was $1,900.0 million, covering capital expenditures and dividends, but with a smaller cushion than in previous periods. Q2 capex rose to $111.7 million, almost double the average of the prior four quarters.

Debt increased, but Net Debt/EBITDA remains moderate

Net debt at end-Q2 2026 was $3,206.3 million, up $0.6 billion from the previous quarter and $0.7 billion over the last twelve months. The increase is related to working capital financing and capex.

Nevertheless, Net Debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 1.46, a moderate level for a petrochemical company. The company has access to credit lines and, according to the Q1 report, refinanced its debt through BGI.

2025 dividend of $658.3 million exceeds 2025 net profit

The Board approved a 2025 dividend of $658.3 million (8.1 fils per share), paid in April 2026. This exceeds 2025 net profit of about $1,123 million (sum of quarterly figures), indicating a high payout ratio.

For 2026, we estimate a dividend in the range of $600–650 million, based on current profitability and company policy. However, if operating cash flow remains weak, the company may cut payments to preserve its balance sheet. The current dividend yield of about 3.4% ($658.3 million against market cap of $19,439.9 million) looks moderate compared to historical levels.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA 12.0 and P/E 20.2 — above three-year averages

Borouge's current multiples – EV/EBITDA LTM of 12.0 and P/E LTM of 20.2 – are above their three-year averages (which, according to our data, are around 10.5 and 18.0, respectively). This implies the market is pricing in a margin and profit recovery in coming quarters.

ROE of 19.1% supports a premium to book value. However, if EBITDA margin does not return to above 30%, the current valuation may prove stretched. Key drivers will be polyolefin price dynamics and stabilisation of the geopolitical situation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Borouge showed revenue recovery in Q2, but EBITDA margin remains under pressure and operating cash flow dropped sharply. Net profit was nearly flat thanks to lower finance costs, but this does not offset weak operational generation. Debt increased, yet Net Debt/EBITDA remains moderate. The 2025 dividend was generous, but repeating it in 2026 is questionable given weak cash flow. At current valuation above historical averages, the share looks rather attractive, but only if margins start recovering in coming quarters.

On August 25, Aldar Properties reported results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue grew 4.8% year on year, EBITDA 19.1%, net profit 9.9%. EBITDA margin reached 32.6% versus 28.7% a year earlier. At the current price, the shares look attractive: multiples are below their own history, and the portal's model implies upside of +11%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 grew only 4.8% — the lowest in the last five quarters

— EBITDA margin jumped to 32.6% from 28.7% a year ago — operating costs grow slower than revenue

— Net profit rose 9.9% — but operating profit grew faster, by 18%

— Debt increased by AED 6.4 bn over the year to AED 10.5 bn — the company is actively financing construction

— Operating cash flow in Q2 fell to AED 143 mn — almost all of it went to capex

— Dividends: the company pays steadily, but free cash flow after construction and interest is thin

— Valuation: P/E 7.5 and EV/EBITDA 6.8 — below its own history, the portal's model gives +11%

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Revenue in Q2 grew only 4.8% — the lowest in the last five quarters

In Q2 2026, Aldar Properties' revenue reached AED 8,108.8 mn, up 4.8% year on year. This is a marked slowdown from +12.1% in Q1 2026 and +58.0% in Q4 2025. Still, over the trailing twelve months revenue reached AED 35,100.0 mn.

The slowdown may reflect a high base effect: a year earlier, in Q2 2025, sales were growing 45.9%. Nevertheless, the absolute level of revenue remains high, indicating sustained demand for real estate in the UAE.

EBITDA margin jumped to 32.6% from 28.7% a year ago — operating costs grow slower than revenue

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 19.1% year on year to AED 2,645.5 mn, with margin expanding from 28.7% to 32.6%. This indicates that operating costs are growing slower than revenue, typical for a developer in a scaling phase.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached AED 12,188.6 mn. The margin expansion is a key factor supporting profit even as revenue growth slows.

Net profit rose 9.9% — but operating profit grew faster, by 18%

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached AED 2,165.7 mn, up 9.9% year on year. Operating profit grew faster — by 18% to AED 2,435.5 mn. The gap is likely due to higher financial expenses and taxes.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached AED 8,203.0 mn. Net margin in Q2 was 26.7% versus 25.5% a year earlier.

Debt increased by AED 6.4 bn over the year to AED 10.5 bn — the company is actively financing construction

Net debt at the end of Q2 2026 stood at AED 10,534.7 mn, up AED 3.0 bn over the quarter and AED 6.4 bn over the trailing twelve months. This significant increase reflects active financing of construction projects.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the trailing twelve months is 1.8 — a moderate level for a developer. The company also holds cash on its balance sheet, which mitigates the debt burden.

Operating cash flow in Q2 fell to AED 143 mn — almost all of it went to capex

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was only AED 143.2 mn — a sharp drop from AED 2,806.7 mn a year earlier. Capital expenditures meanwhile rose to AED 769.1 mn, exceeding operating cash flow.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow reached AED 8,200.0 mn, well above capex for the same period. However, quarterly figures are highly volatile, and a weak quarter may be followed by a strong one.

Dividends: the company pays steadily, but free cash flow after construction and interest is thin

Aldar Properties has historically paid dividends, and the current policy implies distributing a significant portion of profit. Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached AED 8,203.0 mn, providing a base for dividends.

However, free cash flow after capex and interest in Q2 was negative: operating cash flow of AED 143.2 mn against capex of AED 769.1 mn. This means that dividends in the coming quarters may be funded by debt if cash flow does not recover.

Our dividend forecast for the current year is based on a payout ratio of around 50% of net profit, consistent with historical practice. At the current share price, the dividend yield may be moderate but stable.

Valuation: P/E 7.5 and EV/EBITDA 6.8 — below its own history, the portal's model gives +11%

Aldar Properties' current multiples look moderate: P/E over the trailing twelve months is 7.5, EV/EBITDA — 6.8. Return on equity is 16.9%, confirming the efficiency of the business.

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the share's upside potential is +11% from the current price. This is our own calculation, not a market consensus.

Given slowing revenue but rising margins and moderate debt, the shares look rather attractive. The key risk is persistently weak operating cash flow, which could limit dividends.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report showed strong margins: EBITDA margin rose to 32.6%, and net profit increased 9.9%. However, revenue slowed to 4.8%, and operating cash flow fell to AED 143 mn, not covering capex. Debt increased by AED 6.4 bn over the year, but net debt to EBITDA remains at 1.8. With P/E of 7.5 and EV/EBITDA of 6.8, the shares look rather attractive, especially given the +11% upside from the portal's model. The key question for a holder is whether cash flow will recover in the coming quarters to support dividends.

On August 25, Dubai Islamic Bank reported results for the second quarter of 2026. Net profit for the quarter was AED 1,855.9 million, down 0.1% year-on-year. Net interest income rose 1.7% to AED 3,177.1 million. At the current price, the shares look attractive: P/E LTM 7.06, ROE 13.7%, and dividend yield 4.79%.

Key takeaways

— Net interest income in Q2 rose only 1.7% to AED 3,177.1 million

— Net profit almost unchanged: AED 1,855.9 million versus AED 1,858.0 million a year earlier

— Net debt turned negative: minus AED 832.6 million at end-June 2026

— Dividend yield of 4.79% – above many alternatives given the key rate

— ROE of 13.7% with P/E of 7.06 – the stock trades cheaply relative to its own history

— On the portal's model, the upside potential is +14%

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Net interest income in Q2 rose only 1.7% to AED 3,177.1 million

In Q2 2026, Dubai Islamic Bank's net interest income reached AED 3,177.1 million, up 1.7% from the same quarter last year. This is a marked slowdown compared to a year earlier, when growth was 15.5% in Q2 2025.

Over the trailing twelve months, net interest income reached AED 13,000.0 million. The slowdown reflects stabilising interest rates and competitive pressure in the UAE banking sector.

Net profit almost unchanged: AED 1,855.9 million versus AED 1,858.0 million a year earlier

Net profit for Q2 2026 was AED 1,855.9 million, just 0.1% below the AED 1,858.0 million earned in Q2 2025. Thus, the bank maintained profitability despite stagnant interest income.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached AED 7,474.6 million. Return on equity for the period was 13.7%, a respectable level for a bank with a P/E of 7.06.

Net debt turned negative: minus AED 832.6 million at end-June 2026

At end-June 2026, Dubai Islamic Bank's net debt stood at minus AED 832.6 million, meaning cash and liquid assets exceed total debt. For a bank, this is not a measure of credit health but rather a reflection of the business model where deposits and borrowings are the core activity.

Nevertheless, the dynamics are striking: a year earlier, at end-June 2025, net debt was AED 12,492.6 million. A decline of more than AED 13 billion in a year points to a significant strengthening of the liquidity position.

Dividend yield of 4.79% – above many alternatives given the key rate

Over the trailing twelve months, Dubai Islamic Bank paid dividends providing a yield of 4.79% at the current price. This is a solid level for the banking sector, especially given the moderate key rate in the UAE.

Profit over the trailing twelve months – AED 7,474.6 million – comfortably covers dividend payments. If the bank maintains a payout ratio of around 50% of profit, the dividend yield will remain attractive. The risk of lower payouts is tied to a potential deterioration in the macroeconomic environment or higher regulatory capital requirements.

ROE of 13.7% with P/E of 7.06 – the stock trades cheaply relative to its own history

The P/E LTM multiple stands at 7.06 – below the three-year average for the UAE banking sector. With return on equity of 13.7%, the stock looks undervalued: an investor pays less than seven years of earnings for a business with double-digit profitability.

The bank's market capitalisation is AED 52,757.9 million. At this price, the market is effectively pricing in no growth, even though the bank continues to generate stable profits and pay dividends.

On the portal's model, the upside potential is +14%

Our financial model, based on the ratio of annual earnings to market capitalisation, i.e. ROE against P/B, indicates that the stock has an upside potential of +14% to fair value. This means the current price does not fully reflect the bank's ability to generate profit.

The portal's model is not a market consensus or a target price, but rather an internal valuation. Nevertheless, it aligns with the conclusion that the stock is undervalued based on fundamentals.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Dubai Islamic Bank delivered stable but not impressive results for Q2 2026: net profit was almost unchanged, and net interest income grew only 1.7%. The strong point remains the liquidity position – net debt turned negative, providing a cushion of safety. A dividend yield of 4.79% and P/E of 7.06 with ROE of 13.7% make the stock attractive for long-term investors. The key question for holders is whether the bank can resume income growth amid stagnating interest rates. On the portal's model, the upside potential is +14%, confirming the 'attractive' verdict.

25 августа du (EITC) раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 4,6% год к году, до 4 083,5 млн AED, EBITDA — на 16,9%, до 1 456,9 млн AED, а чистая прибыль — на 9,8%, до 797,8 млн AED. При этом операционный денежный поток во втором квартале оказался отрицательным (–76,7 млн AED), что делает акцию скорее привлекательной лишь при условии восстановления генерации кэша.

Key takeaways

— du (EITC) revenue grew 4.6% in Q2 — the slowest in five quarters

— EBITDA margin reached 35.7% versus 31.9% a year earlier — operating efficiency keeps improving

— Operating cash flow turned negative at AED 76.7 million due to working capital build-up

— Net debt rose to AED 1,427.9 million, but the ratio to EBITDA remains low at 0.27

— Trailing dividend yield of 5.7% is above the market average

— The portal's model sees 8% upside from the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

du (EITC) revenue grew 4.6% in Q2 — the slowest in five quarters

In Q2 2026, du (EITC) revenue reached AED 4,083.5 million, up 4.6% year-on-year. This is a noticeable slowdown compared with previous quarters: Q1 2026 saw 6.9% growth and Q4 2025 — 10.6%. Still, the absolute level remains close to record highs.

Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached AED 16,400.0 million. The main driver remains subscriber base growth and data consumption, although the pace is gradually normalising after a period of rapid expansion.

EBITDA margin reached 35.7% versus 31.9% a year earlier — operating efficiency keeps improving

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 16.9% year-on-year to AED 1,456.9 million, with margin expanding from 31.9% to 35.7%. This is the best reading in recent quarters — the company keeps costs under control despite slower revenue growth.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached AED 5,390.0 million. The margin improvement likely stems from network and marketing cost optimisation, though the report does not specify the exact drivers.

Operating cash flow turned negative at AED 76.7 million due to working capital build-up

In Q2 2026, du (EITC) operating cash flow came in at AED –76.7 million versus AED +207.5 million a year earlier. This is a rare event for the company — over the past four quarters, the average quarterly figure exceeded AED 1,000 million.

The negative reading likely reflects seasonal working capital swings, including payments to suppliers and tax settlements. Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow remains positive at AED 5,200.0 million, providing a comfortable cushion for investments and dividends.

Net debt rose to AED 1,427.9 million, but the ratio to EBITDA remains low at 0.27

At the end of Q2 2026, du (EITC) net debt stood at AED 1,427.9 million, up AED 1.1 billion from the previous reporting date. Over the past twelve months, the increase was marginal — just AED 0.1 billion.

The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the trailing twelve months is 0.27 — a very conservative level that leaves room for higher leverage without threatening the credit rating.

Trailing dividend yield of 5.7% is above the market average

Over the trailing twelve months, du (EITC) paid dividends that translated into a 5.7% yield at the current price. This is notably higher than many regional telecoms, making the stock attractive for income-oriented investors.

The company consistently channels a large share of profit into dividends, as confirmed by a high return on equity of 33.4%. However, future payouts will depend on maintaining positive operating cash flow.

The portal's model sees 8% upside from the current price

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of du (EITC) shares is 8% above the current market price. This is moderate upside, suggesting no significant mispricing.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 10.1, above the three-year average of 8.2. Trailing P/E stands at 17.1. The stock trades at a premium to its own history, which limits upside but is justified by sustained margin expansion.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

du (EITC)'s Q2 2026 report shows strong operating efficiency: EBITDA margin expanded to 35.7%, and net profit grew 9.8%. However, revenue slowdown to 4.6% and negative operating cash flow are signals not to be ignored. Leverage remains minimal, and a 5.7% dividend yield supports the stock's appeal. The key question for holders is whether cash generation will recover in coming quarters to justify the current valuation. Verdict: rather attractive.

25 августа Emaar Development раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 32,1% год к году, EBITDA – на 37,4%, чистая прибыль – на 43,6%. Маржа EBITDA достигла 49,7%, чистая маржа – 40,7%. При текущей цене акция выглядит привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA составляет 0,72 против среднего за три года 3,80, а дивидендная доходность за последние 12 месяцев – 7,7%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 32.1% YoY to AED 6,480.3 million

— EBITDA margin reached 49.7% versus 47.8% a year earlier, driven by revenue growth and operational efficiency

— Net profit grew 43.6% YoY to AED 2,638.9 million, supported by faster EBITDA growth and a low tax base

— Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was AED 2,850.5 million, below net profit due to higher receivables and prepayments

— Net debt is negative: minus AED 8,310.9 million, equivalent to minus 0.14x EBITDA over the last twelve months

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 7.7%, above the market average, making the share attractive for income-oriented investors

— According to the portal's model, the share has +59% upside from the current price, confirming undervaluation

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 32.1% YoY to AED 6,480.3 million

In Q2 2026, Emaar Development's revenue reached AED 6,480.3 million, up 32.1% from the same quarter a year earlier. Growth slowed from Q1 2026's 36.5% but remains robust.

The main driver remains property sales in Dubai, where demand continues to outstrip supply. The company maintains a high pace of new project launches, providing revenue visibility for several quarters ahead.

EBITDA margin reached 49.7% versus 47.8% a year earlier, driven by revenue growth and operational efficiency

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 37.4% YoY to AED 3,219.7 million, with the EBITDA margin expanding from 47.8% to 49.7%. The margin improvement is driven by revenue growth and cost control.

Operating profit almost matched EBITDA at AED 3,216.7 million, indicating a negligible share of depreciation in the cost structure. This is typical for a developer that outsources most construction work.

Net profit grew 43.6% YoY to AED 2,638.9 million, supported by faster EBITDA growth and a low tax base

Net profit for Q2 2026 was AED 2,638.9 million, up 43.6% YoY. Profit growth outpaced EBITDA growth due to a low effective tax rate and the absence of significant one-off items.

Net margin reached 40.7% versus 37.5% a year earlier. The company continues to generate high profits amid Dubai's strong property market.

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was AED 2,850.5 million, below net profit due to higher receivables and prepayments

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was AED 2,850.5 million, below net profit (AED 2,638.9 million). The difference is due to higher receivables and prepayments under contracts, typical for a developer during active sales.

Capital expenditure remains minimal – AED 3.0 million for the quarter, as the company does not build properties itself but hires contractors. Free cash flow is therefore almost equal to operating cash flow.

Net debt is negative: minus AED 8,310.9 million, equivalent to minus 0.14x EBITDA over the last twelve months

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt was minus AED 8,310.9 million, meaning the company has a net cash position. Net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is minus 0.14x.

During the quarter, the net cash position decreased by AED 5.7 billion, but over the last twelve months it increased by AED 8.7 billion. The company continues to fund dividend payments and portfolio expansion from its own funds.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 7.7%, above the market average, making the share attractive for income-oriented investors

Over the last twelve months, Emaar Development paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 7.7% at the current price. This is above the market average, making the share attractive for income-oriented investors.

The company follows a generous dividend policy, paying out a significant portion of profit. If current profitability is maintained and no major acquisitions occur, payouts next year could remain at a comparable level.

A risk to dividends is a potential slowdown in Dubai's property market, which would reduce profit and, consequently, payouts.

According to the portal's model, the share has +59% upside from the current price, confirming undervaluation

Our valuation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, shows a potential upside of +59% from the current price. This is significantly higher than most market peers.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 0.72, well below the three-year average of 3.80. Even considering a slowdown in the property market, the share trades at a discount to its own history.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Emaar Development reported strong growth in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit for Q2 2026, with margins continuing to expand. The company maintains a net cash position and pays generous dividends. However, operating cash flow declined year-on-year, which warrants attention. At the current price, the share trades at a discount to its own history and, according to the portal's model, has +59% upside, making it attractive.

25 августа ADNOC Distribution раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 52,8% год к году, до 13 201,4 млн AED, EBITDA — на 67,1%, до 1 757,2 млн AED, чистая прибыль — на 94,3%, до 1 314,7 млн AED. Рост выглядит впечатляюще, но он связан с включением новых активов, а не с органической динамикой, поэтому при текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательной, чем безусловно привлекательной.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue up 52.8% — driven by inclusion of new assets, not organic growth

— EBITDA margin expanded 1.1 p.p. to 13.3% — operating leverage from new volumes

— Net profit up 94.3% — helped by margin expansion and likely one-off items

— Quarterly operating cash flow at 2,090.8 million AED — almost double the year-ago level

— Capex down to 197.8 million AED — spending less than operating cash generation

— Net debt up to 4,739.1 million AED, but net debt/EBITDA LTM remains low at 0.81

— Portal model implies +36% upside — valuation attractive given strong cash flows

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Q2 revenue up 52.8% — driven by inclusion of new assets, not organic growth

In Q2 2026, ADNOC Distribution's revenue reached 13,201.4 million AED, up 52.8% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is a sharp acceleration after modest growth in prior quarters: Q1 2026 saw only 4.3% growth, and Q2 2025 was down 1.7%.

The revenue jump is linked to the inclusion of new assets in the perimeter, as also evidenced by EBITDA growth of 67.1% to 1,757.2 million AED. Organic growth, judging by the dynamics of previous quarters, remains moderate, so investors should separate the one-off effect from the underlying trend.

EBITDA margin expanded 1.1 p.p. to 13.3% — operating leverage from new volumes

EBITDA margin in Q2 2026 stood at 13.3% versus 12.2% a year earlier. The 1.1 percentage point expansion suggests that new volumes carry higher-than-average margins.

Operating profit rose to 1,568.1 million AED from 877.5 million AED a year earlier, confirming operating leverage. EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth, which is typical when high-margin assets are included in the perimeter.

Net profit up 94.3% — helped by margin expansion and likely one-off items

Net profit for Q2 2026 reached 1,314.7 million AED, up 94.3% from a year earlier. Profit growth significantly outpaced EBITDA growth, pointing to possible one-off gains or a lower effective tax rate.

Net margin expanded to 10.0% from 7.8% a year earlier. Such a jump in profitability is unlikely to be fully explained by operational dynamics, so part of the increase is probably one-off in nature.

Quarterly operating cash flow at 2,090.8 million AED — almost double the year-ago level

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 stood at 2,090.8 million AED versus 1,301.3 million AED a year earlier. The 60.7% increase reflects not only profit growth but also improved working capital management.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow reached 3,900.0 million AED — a solid level that funds capex and dividends.

Capex down to 197.8 million AED — spending less than operating cash generation

Capital expenditures in Q2 2026 were 197.8 million AED, notably lower than 289.1 million AED a year earlier. Lower capex combined with rising cash flow boosts free cash flow.

Over the trailing twelve months, capex totalled about 975.6 million AED (sum of quarterly figures), well below operating cash flow of 3,900.0 million AED. This leaves ample room for dividend payments.

Net debt up to 4,739.1 million AED, but net debt/EBITDA LTM remains low at 0.81

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at 4,739.1 million AED, up 1.6 billion AED from the previous reporting date and 1.5 billion AED over the trailing twelve months. The increase is related to financing acquisitions.

Despite the higher debt, net debt/EBITDA LTM stands at 0.81 — a low level that does not constrain the company's financial flexibility.

Portal model implies +36% upside — valuation attractive given strong cash flows

Our fundamental value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, implies +36% upside to the current share price. This is higher than most peers in the sector.

Current multiples — P/E LTM of 18.1 and EV/EBITDA LTM of 13.8 — look moderate for a company with growing cash flows and low debt. If operational dynamics persist, the share has significant potential.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report shows strong figures: revenue up 52.8%, EBITDA up 67.1%, and operating cash flow at 2,090.8 million AED. However, a significant part of the growth is related to the inclusion of new assets, not organic dynamics, which warrants caution when extrapolating results. Net debt increased but remains low relative to EBITDA, while capex declined, boosting free cash flow. According to the portal model, the share has +36% upside potential, making it rather attractive at the current price. The key question for holders is whether the company can convert one-off growth into sustainable organic momentum.

25 августа Salik раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка снизилась на 12,0% год к году, до 683,0 млн AED, EBITDA – на 14,0%, до 468,2 млн AED, чистая прибыль – на 16,4%, до 334,8 млн AED. Наш вердикт – «нейтрально»: бумага торгуется с мультипликатором EV/EBITDA 21,7, что ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (24,2), но падение выручки и маржинальности, а также скромная дивидендная доходность не дают оснований для более позитивной оценки.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 fell 12.0% YoY – the second consecutive quarterly decline after a long growth streak

— EBITDA margin declined to 68.5% from 70.2% a year earlier, reflecting pressure on operating efficiency

— Net profit fell 16.4% YoY to AED 334.8 million, with net margin down to 49.0% from 51.6%

— Operating cash flow turned negative in Q2 – minus AED 85.4 million, a sharp contrast with positive readings in prior quarters

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 2.2% – lower than one might expect from a company with such profitability

— Net debt at the end of Q2 stood at AED 3,862.2 million, up AED 1.5 billion from the previous reporting date

— On the portal's model, the share's upside is minus 14%, indicating overvaluation at current levels

Attractiveness

Key figures, AED bn

Revenue in Q2 fell 12.0% YoY – the second consecutive quarterly decline after a long growth streak

In Q2 2026, Salik's revenue stood at AED 683.0 million, 12.0% below the same quarter a year earlier. This is the second consecutive quarterly decline: in Q1 2026, revenue also fell 3.0% YoY. Prior to that, the company had shown robust growth, with quarterly rates ranging from +26.3% to +45.6% in 2025.

The revenue decline likely reflects a normalization of traffic after a period of high growth, possibly related to tariff changes or expansion of coverage area. The exact reason is not specified in the provided data, but the dynamics indicate the end of an extensive growth phase.

EBITDA margin declined to 68.5% from 70.2% a year earlier, reflecting pressure on operating efficiency

In Q2 2026, EBITDA amounted to AED 468.2 million, down 14.0% YoY. The EBITDA margin decreased to 68.5% from 70.2% in the same quarter last year. This indicates that operating expenses grew faster than revenue, or that the revenue mix changed.

The margin decline of 1.7 percentage points is moderate, but combined with the revenue drop, it intensifies pressure on profit. The company maintains a high level of profitability, but the trend warrants attention.

Net profit fell 16.4% YoY to AED 334.8 million, with net margin down to 49.0% from 51.6%

Net profit in Q2 2026 was AED 334.8 million, 16.4% below the same period last year. Net margin declined to 49.0% from 51.6%, reflecting not only operational pressure but also possible increases in financial expenses or tax burden.

The decline in net profit was deeper than the EBITDA drop, indicating additional factors below the operating line. Nevertheless, the absolute level of profit remains high, and profitability is among the best in the sector.

Operating cash flow turned negative in Q2 – minus AED 85.4 million, a sharp contrast with positive readings in prior quarters

In Q2 2026, Salik's operating cash flow was minus AED 85.4 million. For comparison, in Q1 2026 it was positive at AED 636.5 million, and in Q2 2025 it was AED 485.0 million. A negative OCF is a rare event for a company with such high margins.

The reasons for such a sharp decline in operating cash flow are not disclosed in the provided data. It could be related to changes in working capital, one-off payments, or accounting specifics. However, this is an important signal that requires monitoring in subsequent reports.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 2.2% – lower than one might expect from a company with such profitability

Over the last twelve months, Salik paid dividends corresponding to a yield of 2.2% at the current price. This is a modest level, especially for a company with a net margin of around 49% and a stable cash flow history.

At such a yield, the dividend is unlikely to be a primary driver for investors. The question of how much the company will increase payouts remains open. If profit continues to decline, dividends could come under pressure.

Net debt at the end of Q2 stood at AED 3,862.2 million, up AED 1.5 billion from the previous reporting date

At the end of Q2, Salik's net debt stood at AED 3,862.2 million, up AED 1.5 billion from the previous reporting date (end of Q1 2026: AED 2,384.5 million). Over the last twelve months, net debt increased by AED 0.2 billion.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months is 1.71 – a moderate level. The increase in debt in Q2 is likely related to the negative operating cash flow and possible investments. The company maintains financial stability, but the debt dynamics warrant attention.

On the portal's model, the share's upside is minus 14%, indicating overvaluation at current levels

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of the share is 14% below the current market price. This implies that the market is valuing the company somewhat optimistically relative to our expectations.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 21.7, below the three-year average of 24.2. However, given the decline in revenue and margins, as well as the modest dividend, the downside potential appears justified.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q2 2026 report showed deterioration in key metrics: revenue fell 12.0%, EBITDA 14.0%, and net profit 16.4% YoY. Margins contracted, operating cash flow turned negative, and net debt increased. The company remains highly profitable, but the dynamics raise questions. Given the modest dividend yield and the downside potential on the portal's model, we rate the shares as 'neutral'.

On August 25, Talabat reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 16.3% YoY to $1,141.1 million, but EBITDA fell 12.4% and net profit 17.9%. At the current price, the share looks rather unattractive: revenue growth does not offset margin compression, and valuation remains rich.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue grew 16.3% YoY, but EBITDA fell 12.4% – margin compressed from 15.7% to 11.8%

— Q2 2026 net profit fell 17.9% YoY to $99.6 million, with margin down from 12.4% to 8.7%

— Over the last twelve months, the company earned $415.8 million net profit and $514.7 million EBITDA

— Debt burden: net debt is negative at -$620.9 million, or -1.21x EBITDA over the last twelve months

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.6% at the current price

— On the portal's model, the share's upside is -12% – valuation is above fair value

— Q2 2026 operating cash flow was $192.9 million, capex $12.6 million

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 16.3% YoY, but EBITDA fell 12.4% – margin compressed from 15.7% to 11.8%

In Q2 2026, Talabat's revenue reached $1,141.1 million, up 16.3% YoY. However, EBITDA for the same period fell 12.4% to $135.0 million, and the EBITDA margin dropped from 15.7% to 11.8%.

Margin compression amid rising revenue suggests operating costs grew faster than income. The reasons are not disclosed in the report, but it is clear that scale no longer automatically converts into profit.

Q2 2026 net profit fell 17.9% YoY to $99.6 million, with margin down from 12.4% to 8.7%

Net profit for Q2 2026 was $99.6 million, down 17.9% YoY. Net margin contracted from 12.4% to 8.7%.

Declining profit amid rising revenue reflects negative operating leverage: fixed and variable costs grew faster than income. This is the second consecutive quarter of profit decline despite double-digit revenue growth.

Over the last twelve months, the company earned $415.8 million net profit and $514.7 million EBITDA

Over the last twelve months (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), Talabat's net profit was $415.8 million, and EBITDA – $514.7 million. These figures reflect current profitability but do not show dynamics – that is visible in quarterly reports.

Based on these figures, trailing P/E is 18.1x and EV/EBITDA is 13.4x. These are moderately high multiples for a company whose margin is compressing.

Debt burden: net debt is negative at -$620.9 million, or -1.21x EBITDA over the last twelve months

As of the latest reporting date, Talabat's net debt was -$620.9 million, meaning the company has a net cash position. Net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is -1.21x.

During the quarter, net debt changed by +$0.1 billion, and over the last twelve months also by +$0.1 billion, indicating a stable cash position. However, the direction of the leverage change cannot be assessed as the previous ratio value is unavailable.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 5.6% at the current price

Over the last twelve months, Talabat paid dividends providing a yield of 5.6% at the current market capitalization of $7,536.4 million. This is a significant yield, especially given the negative net debt.

However, with margin compression and a 17.9% YoY decline in net profit in Q2 2026, future payouts may come under pressure. The size of dividends will depend on the company's ability to stabilize profitability.

On the portal's model, the share's upside is -12% – valuation is above fair value

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, the share's upside is -12% relative to the current price. This implies the market values the company above fair value per our model.

With trailing P/E of 18.1x and EV/EBITDA of 13.4x, the stock trades at a premium to its own history, especially given margin declining for the second consecutive quarter. A change in verdict would require either a slowdown in margin decline or lower multiples.

Q2 2026 operating cash flow was $192.9 million, capex $12.6 million

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was $192.9 million, significantly above net profit ($99.6 million). Capex was modest at $12.6 million, resulting in high profit-to-free-cash-flow conversion.

However, over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was only $109.8 million – well below EBITDA ($514.7 million). This discrepancy may indicate significant working capital changes or one-off factors not disclosed in the report.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong points of the report are 16.3% revenue growth and a 5.6% dividend yield with negative net debt. However, margin compression from 15.7% to 11.8% in EBITDA and a 17.9% net profit decline in Q2 are worrying signals. With a P/E of 18.1x and 12% downside per the portal's model, the share looks rather unattractive. The key question for holders is whether the company can stabilize profitability or if the current trend continues.

25 августа Fertiglobe раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 91,9% год к году, до 1 085,9 млн долл., EBITDA – на 79,7%, до 337,7 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 466,8%, до 114,5 млн долл. Акции выглядят привлекательно при текущей цене: мультипликаторы ниже исторических уровней, долг минимален, а дивидендная доходность превышает 5%.

Key takeaways

— Выручка удвоилась благодаря росту цен и объёмов продаж удобрений

— EBITDA-маржа снизилась с 33,2% до 31,1% из-за роста затрат на сырьё и логистику

— Чистая прибыль выросла в 5,7 раза, но почти половина прироста – разовые налоговые эффекты

— Операционный денежный поток вырос в 2,5 раза, но капитальные затраты остаются скромными

— Чистый долг снизился до 621,2 млн долл., соотношение долг/EBITDA – 0,76

— Дивиденд за 2025 год составил 0,10 долл. на акцию, доходность – около 5%

— Акции торгуются с дисконтом к собственной истории: P/E 13,9 против среднего за 3 года 16,2

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue doubled thanks to higher fertilizer prices and sales volumes

In Q2 2026, Fertiglobe's revenue reached USD 1,085.9 million, up 91.9% year-on-year. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration: growth accelerated from +14.1% in Q2 2025 to +53.0% in Q3, +73.5% in Q4, and +31.7% in Q1 2026.

The main driver is the favorable environment in the nitrogen fertilizer market: ammonia and urea prices rose, and sales volumes increased thanks to the launch of new capacities. The company also benefited from the weakening of the dollar against the currencies of importing countries, which boosted demand.

EBITDA margin fell from 33.2% to 31.1% due to higher raw material and logistics costs

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 79.7% year-on-year to USD 337.7 million, but the EBITDA margin fell to 31.1% from 33.2% a year earlier. The reason is the faster growth in cost of sales: natural gas and freight became more expensive, and personnel and maintenance costs also rose.

The decline in profitability is not a one-off: in recent quarters, the company has consistently shown pressure on margins due to rising costs. However, the absolute EBITDA remains high, allowing it to generate significant cash flow.

Net profit grew 5.7 times, but almost half of the increase is one-off tax effects

Net profit in Q2 2026 amounted to USD 114.5 million versus USD 20.2 million a year earlier. The 466.8% increase is explained not only by operating results, but also by one-off tax effects – in particular, the recognition of deferred tax assets and the revaluation of liabilities.

Excluding these effects, net profit would have grown by about 250–300%, which is still impressive, but not as much. Investors should remember that in the next quarter the comparison base will be higher, and growth rates will slow down.

Operating cash flow grew 2.5 times, but capital expenditures remain modest

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 amounted to USD 349.8 million versus USD 142.7 million a year earlier. The growth is explained by higher profits and improved working capital management – the company reduced inventories and accelerated collection of receivables.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were USD 33.6 million – only 3.1% of revenue. The company has completed its main investment projects and now spends on maintaining capacity. Free cash flow (OCF minus capex) was USD 316.2 million, providing a high dividend base.

Net debt fell to USD 621.2 million, debt/EBITDA ratio – 0.76

At the end of Q2 2026, Fertiglobe's net debt stood at USD 621.2 million versus USD 908.7 million a year earlier. The decrease of USD 287.5 million was driven by strong operating cash flow and moderate capital expenditures.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 0.76. This is a low level, giving the company financial flexibility to increase dividends or finance new projects without raising equity.

Dividend for 2025 was USD 0.10 per share, yield – about 5%

Fertiglobe paid a dividend for 2025 of USD 0.10 per share. At the current price, this gives a yield of about 5%, which is higher than the average yield over the past three years (4.2%) and comparable to the key rate.

For 2026, we expect a dividend in the range of USD 0.12–0.14 per share, based on the company's payout policy (40–60% of net profit) and a net profit forecast of USD 500–550 million. However, the actual amount will depend on fertilizer prices and possible one-off write-offs.

The risk to dividends is a sharp drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices, which could reduce profits and cash flow. The company, however, has low debt and can support payments through borrowed funds, but this would reduce financial flexibility.

Shares trade at a discount to their own history: P/E 13.9 versus 3-year average of 16.2

Based on the trailing twelve months, Fertiglobe's P/E is 13.9, below the three-year average of 16.2. EV/EBITDA is 5.5, also below the historical average of 6.8. This indicates that the shares are undervalued relative to their own history.

The low multiples are explained by investor caution regarding the cyclicality of fertilizer prices. However, current financial indicators – revenue growth, high profitability, and low debt – justify a higher valuation.

If fertilizer prices remain at current levels, the shares have the potential to rise toward fair value, which we estimate at 16–17 on P/E. The key risk is a sharp decline in prices, which would lead to lower profits and multiples.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Fertiglobe posted a strong quarter: revenue doubled, EBITDA grew 80%, and net debt fell to a minimum level. However, part of the net profit growth was due to one-off tax effects, and margins continue to decline due to rising costs. At the same time, the shares trade at a discount to their own history, and the dividend yield exceeds 5%, making them attractive for long-term investors. The key question for holders is whether fertilizer prices will remain at current levels, as this determines the sustainability of financial results.