Bashneft is a vertically integrated oil company controlled by Rosneft: crude production in Bashkortostan and the Nenets district, three refineries in Ufa and a retail fuel network.
Sector: Oil & Gas
RU_BANE
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | FY 2025 (12M) | OK | 1001.8 y/y -12.3% | 96.8 y/y -29.5% | 55.7 y/y 8.2% | 152.5 y/y -19.2% | 46.6 y/y -55.1% | 110.2 | -42.4 | 1118.1 y/y -3.9% | 914.9 y/y 2.4% | 5.2% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | FY 2024 (12M) | OK | — y/y 10.8% | — y/y -29.4% | — y/y 4.2% | — y/y -22.6% | — y/y -41.9% | — | — | 1163.2 y/y 3.2% | 893.3 y/y 7.4% | 12.0% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | Q2 2024 (3M) | OK | 282.3 y/y — | 38.3 y/y — | 11.7 y/y — | 49.9 y/y — | 21.5 y/y — | 34.5 | -18.9 | 1154.6 y/y — | 842.5 y/y — | 10.1% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-03-31 | Q1 2024 (3M) | OK | 280.0 y/y — | 39.2 y/y — | 11.5 y/y — | 50.7 y/y — | 31.6 y/y — | 21.5 | -13.7 | 1154.5 y/y — | 863.4 y/y — | 14.9% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | Q4 2023 (3M) | OK | 304.0 y/y — | 34.5 y/y — | 10.5 y/y — | 45.0 y/y — | 27.1 y/y — | 39.6 | -21.5 | 1127.0 y/y — | 831.8 y/y — | 21.9% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-09-30 | Q3 2023 (3M) | OK | 314.4 y/y — | 82.8 y/y — | 12.4 y/y — | 95.2 y/y — | 75.3 y/y — | 64.1 | -14.9 | 1148.3 y/y — | 804.7 y/y — | 13.1% | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | Q2 2023 (3M) | OK | 413.5 y/y — | 76.9 y/y — | 19.8 y/y — | 96.7 y/y — | 76.5 y/y — | 46.9 | -29.0 | 1062.8 y/y — | 729.4 y/y — | — | 121.8 | Report (PDF) |
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2020 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | — | 0.81x | 0.84x | 1.57x | 2.36x |
| accruals, % of assets | -9.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | -5.1% | -5.7% |
Rosstat publishes aggregate pre-tax profit monthly. Башкортостан, производство нефтепродуктов.
The regional result flipped sign year over year.
Company has not reported this period; last report 12 months 2025.
Point estimate unavailable; showing the historical-share range.
| Period | Cumulative, RUB bn | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 7 months 2026 | 110 | +595% |
| 6 months 2026 | 86 | +342% |
| 5 months 2026 | 87 | +405% |
| 4 months 2026 | 83 | +369% |
| 3 months 2026 | 34 | +214% |
| 2 months 2026 | 1 | +154% |
| 1 months 2026 | 1 | −81% |
| 12 months 2025 | 27 | −81% |
| 11 months 2025 | 30 | −81% |
| 10 months 2025 | 11 | −91% |
| 9 months 2025 | −6 | −106% |
| 8 months 2025 | −9 | −108% |
| 7 months 2025 | −22 | −125% |
| 6 months 2025 | −35 | −151% |
| 5 months 2025 | −28 | −134% |
| 4 months 2025 | −31 | −148% |
| 3 months 2025 | −29 | −175% |
| 2 months 2025 | −3 | −107% |
Correlation 0.97 on YoY changes. Published about 60 days after month end.
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Oil (Bashkiria; disclosure frozen at 2020 annual report)
| Year | Reserves, mln toe |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 328.80 |
| Year | Production, mln t | per day, mln t |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 12.90 | 0.04 |
Башнефть: SEC proved 328.8 млн т н.э. на 31.12.2020 (аудит D&M, годовой отчёт 2020 - последнее публичное раскрытие, bashneft.ru PDF; ГО-2023 цифр запасов/добычи не содержит); добыча нефти 2020 = 12.9 млн т с дочерними (газ ~0.4 bcm несущественен). Компания указывала обеспеченность ABC1 по нефти 49.7 лет.
Potential discount −30% (factor 0.70)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 102spot vs LTM +84%
Oil model, two legs: crude and refining. Russian liquids production × Δ(Urals in RUB) gives the crude leg, Russian refinery throughput × Δ(export crack in RUB) the second; volumes from company disclosure. In the spot scenario Brent follows the futures curve and the excess refining margin decays with a 9-month half-life; base prices cover the same period as base EBITDA. Urals is the official price (Ministry of Economic Development, Argus quotes), not Brent minus a fixed spread. The coefficients (30% and 80%) are estimated on a six-company panel, not assumed from the tax rate. Then conservative EBITDA (min spot/avg) → target market cap at the 3-year median EV/EBITDA. The re-rating is suppressed when the multiple fell because EBITDA grew rather than because the price fell — otherwise the earnings growth would be counted twice.
USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): +226% · spot +352% · 3-yr +101%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (latest FY, 2025-12-31) | |
| Revenue | 1.00 trn RUB |
| EBITDA | 152.5 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 849.4 bln RUB |
| 2 · Urals oil price ($/bbl) | |
| Spot | $94.8 |
| LTM average | $55.6 |
| 3-yr average | $65.2 |
| Price source | Минэк 2024-05…2026-09 (29 мес.); до 2024-05 — оценка по медиане дисконта 10.89 $ |
| Brent now (for reference) | $104.9 |
| Brent in spot scenario: 12-mo futures average | $98.9 |
| Urals in RUB per bbl — spot / LTM / 3-yr | 7,952 RUB / 4,693 RUB / 5,572 RUB |
| 3 · Export crack (RUB per bbl of throughput) | |
| Spot / LTM / 3-yr | 6,786 RUB / 2,618 RUB / 3,492 RUB |
| Spot scenario: 12-mo average, excess margin decays with 9-mo half-life | 5,642 RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection: two legs | |
| Liquids production in Russia, mln bbl/yr · жидкие РФ: ОЦЕНКА 2024 по восполнению запасов (Интерфакс); с 2024 не раскрывает | 128 |
| Refining throughput in Russia, mln t/yr | 15 |
| Coefficients: crude / crack (panel-estimated) | 30% / 80% |
| Crude leg — spot | 105.6 bln RUB |
| Refining leg — spot | 258.9 bln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — spot | 364.5 bln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — 3-yr | 108.5 bln RUB |
| = Spot EBITDA (LTM + effect) | 516.9 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 261.0 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 388.9 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 388.9 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 2.2x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 845.1 bln RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2025-12-31) · unchanged since 2023-06-30 | 121.8 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 723.3 bln RUB |
| Current market cap | 221.5 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +226%
Current 2.3x · 3-year 75th pct 2.4x
Group: Oil & Gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aker BP | global | 26.0 | 3.2x | 1.5x |
| Occidental Petroleum | global | 61.8 | 5.1x | 2.5x |
| Lukoil | Russia | 43.6 | 2.5x | 2.5x |
| Gazprom | Russia | 32.0 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Tatneft | Russia | 17.6 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Rosneft | Russia | 49.6 | 3.3x | 3.3x |
| ConocoPhillips | global | 182.4 | 7.4x | 3.6x |
| Gazprom Neft | Russia | 33.0 | 4.2x | 4.2x |
| Chevron | global | 420.8 | 8.7x | 4.2x |
| Santos | Australia | 20.9 | 9.6x | 4.4x |
| Exxon Mobil | global | 744.2 | 10.5x | 5.1x |
| Novatek | Russia | 42.6 | 8.5x | 8.5x |
| Group median | 4.7x | 3.4x | ||
| Group average | 5.7x | 3.8x | ||
| This company | Russia | 2.6 | 2.2x | 2.2x |
Group median 4.7x as traded, 3.4x adjusted; this company 2.2x — a 35% discount.
Group average 5.7x as traded, 3.8x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 41% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +83% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: -51%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 47 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 19% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 0.8x) | 68 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 69.29 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 69.29 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -8.3 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 10.5% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 1342 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 5.2% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 660 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
The number is withheld — here is why
Model year 1 is already 81% over: the base report is 10 months old and year 1 ends twelve months after it. Forecasting a period that has all but happened, with no interim report, is not defensible
The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.
base — LTM на 2025-12-31 (FY)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 31.12.2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.00 trn | 1.19 trn | 1.21 trn | 1.23 trn |
| Revenue growth | — | +19% | +2% | +2% |
| EBITDA | 152.5 bn | 192.2 bn | 192.2 bn | 191.5 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 15.2% | 16.1% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| less D&A | 55.7 bn | 61.8 bn | 62.5 bn | 63.0 bn |
| EBIT | 96.8 bn | 130.4 bn | 129.7 bn | 128.5 bn |
| less net interest | — | 20.9 bn | 17.8 bn | 14.9 bn |
| less tax | 10.0 bn | 27.4 bn | 28.0 bn | 28.4 bn |
| Net profit | 46.6 bn | 82.2 bn | 84.0 bn | 85.2 bn |
| Capex | 42.4 bn | 50.5 bn | 51.4 bn | 52.2 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Free cash flow | 67.8 bn operating cash flow less capex | 80.8 bn | 82.1 bn | 83.0 bn |
| Net debt | 127.8 bn | 118.1 bn | 109.1 bn | 100.3 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.5x |
| Dividend per share | 69.29 ₽ | 107 ₽ | 109 ₽ | 111 ₽ |
Debt and cash are as of 31.12.2021: the 31.12.2025 report carries the income statement only
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Related-market prices (Oil) Нефть Urals (Brent − дисконт Минэка) 85% → +81%; FX ×0.965; 90% of costs follow price EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс; Urals = Brent − дисконт Минэка | 82% | +19% · 0% · 0% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY -12%; acceleration -23.1pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 18% | -12% · -4% · +1% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 2.20x (1.83x…3.22x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 2.3x, three-year median 2.2x). Re-rating to 3.2x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 5 464 ₽ (discount 13.6%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 76% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 14.6% · 11.5% · 8.6% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 19% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | quality multiplier 0.70 — flags: curated; no discount to the exit multiple — it is the market's own and already prices this risk |
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2 | 3% | 0.99x | 100% |
| EBITDA | 2 | 17% | 1.17x | 50% |
| Net profit | 2 | 27% | 1.27x | 0% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 1 572 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 577 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 660 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 4 892 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 1 831 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 69.29 RUB/sh · 5.2%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.29 ₽ | |
| 2025 | 147.31 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 249.69 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 199.89 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 117.29 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 107.81 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 158.95 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 158.95 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q3 | 2026-07-10 | 69.29 ₽ |
| 2025 q3 | 2025-07-11 | 147.31 ₽ |
| 2024 q3 | 2024-07-11 | 249.69 ₽ |
| 2023 q3 | 2023-07-05 | 199.89 ₽ |
| 2022 q3 | 2022-07-07 | 117.29 ₽ |
| 2020 q3 | 2020-07-02 | 107.81 ₽ |
| 2019 q2 | 2019-06-20 | 158.95 ₽ |
| 2018 q3 | 2018-07-05 | 158.95 ₽ |
| 2017 q4 | 2017-12-08 | 148.31 ₽ |
| 2016 q3 | 2016-07-13 | 164.00 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 2 (1 positive), last 30 days: 2 (1 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 2 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 29.06.26 | Filing | ★ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента ПАО АНК «Башнефть» объявило дату фиксации лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов по результатам 2025 года, которая назначена на 13 июля 2026 года. Дивиденды будут выплачиваться по обыкновенным и привилегированным акциям компании. |
| 25.05.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО АНК 'Башнефть' рекомендовал выплатить дивиденды по результатам 2025 года в размере 12,3 млрд. руб., что составляет 69,29 руб. на акцию. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, назначена на 13.07.2026. |
| 20.05.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Проведение заседания совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) и его повестка дня 21 мая 2026 года пройдет заседание совета директоров ПАО АНК 'Башнефть', на котором будет обсуждаться распределение прибыли и рекомендации по дивидендам. Важные вопросы включают предварительное утверждение годового отчета и бухгалтерской отчетности. |
| 29.06.26 | AGM / Board | Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО АНК 'Башнефть', состоявшемся 26 июня 2026 года, было принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 12,3 млрд руб., что составляет 69,29 руб. на акцию. Также утверждены годовой отчет и финансовая отчетность за 2025 год, определен состав Совета директоров в 10 человек и назначена аудиторская организация на 2026 год. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Bashneft (BANE) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| БашнфтБО10 | — | 17% | — | — | — | — | 12.2026 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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