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Russneft (RNFT) RUB

RussNeft is an independent oil producer with fields in Western Siberia, the Volga-Urals region and Azerbaijan, selling crude to Russian refiners and for export.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Profit growing (+35% y/y, H1 2026)✓Margins improving (20%→28%, H1 2026)

Sector: Oil & Gas

RU_RNFT

Price chart

91.25 RUBDay 0.00%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
91.25 RUB · 0.00%
Market cap
26.8 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
0.7%
Δ EBITDA y/y
37.5%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
1.0x
3y avg: 2.8x
P/B (FY)
0.2x
P/E (ann.)
0.8x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
2.8x
3y avg: 2.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
2.0x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
7.3%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
305 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK120.5
y/y 0.7%
29.7
y/y 38.4%
3.4
y/y 30.4%
33.1
y/y 37.5%
15.9
y/y 34.7%
27.6-11.3371.9
y/y 12.8%
156.9
y/y 18.4%
21.1%106.5Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK98.6
y/y -35.5%
12.6
y/y -57.8%
2.5
y/y 1.5%
15.1
y/y -53.3%
12.0
y/y -21.2%
0.1-11.3356.6
y/y 1.3%
144.5
y/y 2.5%
17.2%59.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK119.6
y/y -18.8%
21.5
y/y -45.6%
2.6
y/y 6.8%
24.1
y/y -42.5%
11.8
y/y -68.5%
21.7-14.4329.9
y/y -2.1%
132.5
y/y 12.2%
17.3%62.9Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK152.9
y/y 4.1%
29.8
y/y 18.1%
2.5
y/y -69.4%
32.3
y/y -3.3%
15.2
y/y 41.5%
31.4-33.8352.1
y/y 9.8%
141.0
y/y 48.3%
40.7%108.7Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK147.3
y/y 60.2%
39.5
y/y —
2.4
y/y -69.1%
41.9
y/y 489.9%
37.4
y/y —
26.2-14.2336.9
y/y 8.3%
118.1
y/y 41.0%
70.3%63.9Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK146.8
y/y —
25.2
y/y —
8.2
y/y —
33.4
y/y —
10.8
y/y —
43.5-13.7320.7
y/y —
95.0
y/y —
6.5%76.3Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK91.9
y/y —
-0.8
y/y —
7.9
y/y —
7.1
y/y —
-4.9
y/y —
17.1-8.3311.1
y/y —
83.7
y/y —
—95.3Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)110
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)114 694
− Cash & equivalents8 281
Net debt106 523

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.2x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

050 000100 000150 000200 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-200%0%200%400%600%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)

-20 000-10 000010 00020 00030 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

025 00050 00075 000100 000125 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.16x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.61x.
year2021202320242025
cash flow / profit1.22x10.37x1.09x0.92x
accruals, % of assets-2.6%-17.1%-1.4%0.6%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 0.99x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.2x · capex 2.1x of depreciation · dividends 41% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Oil (AB1C1 state-balance reserves as of 01.01.2026)

Proved reserves
573 mln toe
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
72.8 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
7.87 mln toe
2025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mln toe
2025573

Production

YearProduction, mln toeper day, mln toe
20257.870.02

РуссНефть: запасы AB1C1 (аналог proved) 573 млн т н.э. по госбалансу на 01.01.2026 (AB1C1+B2C2 = 761; нефть+конденсат AB1C1 467 млн т; сайт также цитирует SPE 2P >200 млн т) - russneft.ru/production/oil/; добыча 2025 = 7.872 млн т н.э. (нефть 6.145 млн т), там же.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −52% (factor 0.48)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Urals

Current 102spot vs LTM +70%

Commodity price upside

Oil model, two legs: crude and refining. Russian liquids production × Δ(Urals in RUB) gives the crude leg, Russian refinery throughput × Δ(export crack in RUB) the second; volumes from company disclosure. In the spot scenario Brent follows the futures curve and the excess refining margin decays with a 9-month half-life; base prices cover the same period as base EBITDA. Urals is the official price (Ministry of Economic Development, Argus quotes), not Brent minus a fixed spread. The coefficients (30% and 80%) are estimated on a six-company panel, not assumed from the tax rate. Then conservative EBITDA (min spot/avg) → target market cap at the 3-year median EV/EBITDA. The re-rating is suppressed when the multiple fell because EBITDA grew rather than because the price fell — otherwise the earnings growth would be counted twice.

USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +78% · spot +179% · 3-yr -22%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue219.1 bln RUB
EBITDA48.2 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)170.8 bln RUB
2 · Urals oil price ($/bbl)
Spot$94.8
LTM average$60.0
3-yr average$65.2
Price sourceМинэк 2024-05…2026-09 (29 мес.); до 2024-05 — оценка по медиане дисконта 10.89 $
Brent now (for reference)$104.9
Brent in spot scenario: 12-mo futures average$98.9
Urals in RUB per bbl — spot / LTM / 3-yr7,952 RUB / 4,669 RUB / 5,572 RUB
3 · Export crack (RUB per bbl of throughput)
Spot / LTM / 3-yr6,786 RUB / 3,447 RUB / 3,492 RUB
Spot scenario: 12-mo average, excess margin decays with 9-mo half-life5,642 RUB
4 · EBITDA projection: two legs
Liquids production in Russia, mln bbl/yr · жидкие РФ: факт 2025 (сайт компании, НАНГС)45
Refining throughput in Russia, mln t/yr0
Coefficients: crude / crack (panel-estimated)30% / 80%
Crude leg — spot37.6 bln RUB
Refining leg — spot0 mln RUB
Price effect on EBITDA — spot37.6 bln RUB
Price effect on EBITDA — 3-yr12.2 bln RUB
= Spot EBITDA (LTM + effect)85.9 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA60.4 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/273.2 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))73.2 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)2.1x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA156.1 bln RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)108.0 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt48.2 bln RUB
Current market cap27.0 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +78%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -27% vs +26% the year before — a -53.0 pp move. 3-year CAGR -9%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -18% · 2024 +26% · 2025 -27%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 2.8x · 3-year 75th pct 2.7x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Oil & Gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
Aker BPglobal26.03.2x1.5x
Occidental Petroleumglobal61.85.1x2.5x
LukoilRussia43.62.5x2.5x
GazpromRussia32.02.9x2.9x
TatneftRussia17.62.9x2.9x
RosneftRussia49.63.3x3.3x
ConocoPhillipsglobal182.47.4x3.6x
Gazprom NeftRussia33.04.2x4.2x
Chevronglobal420.88.7x4.2x
SantosAustralia20.99.6x4.4x
Exxon Mobilglobal744.210.5x5.1x
NovatekRussia42.68.5x8.5x
Group median4.7x3.4x
Group average5.7x3.8x
This companyRussia0.32.8x2.8x

Group median 4.7x as traded, 3.4x adjusted; this company 2.8x — a 19% discount.

Group average 5.7x as traded, 3.8x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 27% discount.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +77% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

No dividend planned

RussNeft pays dividends on preferred shares only (FY2024: USD 100m, RUB 80.45 per pref, record date 17.07.2025; FY2025: record date 16.07.2026, prefs only). Ordinary shares have never been paid; the EI1 ordinary-share figures are the preferred dividend misattributed. There is no dividend potential.

Three-year model and IRR with caveats

Expected IRR: +33% (bear — … bull +143%)

price in 3 years 215 ₽ (+134% к 91.90 ₽); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue219.1 bn320.7 bn326.4 bn331.3 bn
Revenue growth—+46%+2%+2%
EBITDA48.2 bn77.5 bn78.2 bn78.6 bn
EBITDA margin22.0%24.2%23.9%23.7%
less D&A5.9 bn7.5 bn7.5 bn7.6 bn
EBIT42.3 bn70.0 bn70.6 bn71.0 bn
less net interest—16.0 bn12.8 bn11.3 bn
less tax—13.5 bn14.5 bn14.9 bn
Net profit27.9 bn40.5 bn43.4 bn44.8 bn
Capex22.6 bn31.0 bn31.6 bn32.1 bn
Capex to revenue10.3%9.7%9.7%9.7%
Free cash flow—17.0 bn19.3 bn20.3 bn
Net debt108.0 bn107.1 bn105.1 bn102.4 bn
Net debt / EBITDA2.2x1.4x1.3x1.3x
Dividend per share0.000 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽
Yield on current price—0.0%0.0%0.0%
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Related-market prices (Oil)
Нефть Urals (Brent − дисконт Минэка) 85% → +79%; FX ×1.036; 90% of costs follow price
EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс; Urals = Brent − дисконт Минэка
82%+46% · 0% · 0%
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY -20%; acceleration -12.3pp
LTM г/г по отчётности
18%-11% · -3% · +1%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 2.10x (1.67x…3.08x)
No re-rating: min(current 2.8x, three-year median 2.1x). Re-rating to 3.1x on a falling rate is the bull case
Second valuation: discounted cash flow696 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
78% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy17% of net profit, capped by cash flow
Dividendssuspended — zero in the model
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governancequality multiplier 0.48 — flags: audit_qualification, curated; no discount to the exit multiple — it is the market's own and already prices this risk
Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue89%1.01x75%
EBITDA732%0.86x43%
Net profit731%0.79x14%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 213 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 37.17 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 164 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 191 ₽

Checks and caveats
  • ⚠ Historical check (7 observations): median EBITDA miss 5.8 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 43% of cases, relative error 32% at bias 0.86x, revenue 9%
  • ⚠ The two valuations of the same cash flow differ 0.3x: exit multiple 215 vs discounted cash flow 696 — the target rests on the multiple assumption rather than on the flow; in the DCF 78% of value sits in the terminal value
  • ⚠ Governance: quality multiplier 0.48 (flags: audit_qualification, curated). No discount is applied to the exit multiple — it is the name's own market multiple and the market already prices this risk in
  • ⚠ Net debt grows for reasons beyond a cash shortfall: over 2 years it added 5.3% of revenue a year on top of cash flow and dividends (range +2.8…+7.8%) — new leases, acquisitions, revaluation. That addition is carried in the forecast; without it the model would show deleveraging where debt keeps rising
  • ⚠ Cash conversion is not measured: of 3 reported years only 1 were comparable, and in 1 of them the formula cash flow was negative. The forecast runs on the uncorrected formula — where the correction could be measured it cuts roughly a third
  • ⚠ Leverage at entry: the market cap is 20% of enterprise value, so a move in business value is multiplied roughly 5.0x in the shares. It cuts both ways: the IRR here is bought with debt, not with business quality
  • ✓ Growth sources: market, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR +15%
  • ✓ Year-3 margin 24% inside history -4%–26%
  • ✓ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA 1.3x
  • ✓ IRR +33%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ One-year value agrees with an independent estimate: eninvs Company_Forecast (0.89x). Compared with: eninvs Company_Forecast, eninvs DividendPrediction, Frontier спот-модель
  • The price move passes into revenue to the power of 0.98 (своя оценка), not one for one. The tax part of costs still follows the full price move — mineral tax is levied on price, not revenue.
  • Volume is taken separately, not from revenue momentum — объёмов нет — рост объёма принят нулевым. A commodity producer's revenue is mostly price, so using revenue growth as volume would count the price twice.
  • Commodity prices held at spot; 90% of cash costs follow the output price (mineral tax, energy, freight), the rest follows inflation. FX drifts with the inflation differential (PPP), so USD revenue still grows in roubles at a flat commodity price.

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 1 across tracked channels, broker research and shows.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

18.08.26Filing★ Совершение эмитентом существенной сделки
ПАО НК 'РуссНефть' заключило существенную сделку по договору поставки природного газа на сумму 49,5 млрд. руб. (с НДС), что составляет 13,9% от стоимости активов компании. Сделка будет исполняться с 01.01.2027 по 31.12.2056.
30.06.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО НК «РуссНефть», состоявшемся 26 июня 2026 года, было принято решение о выплате дивидендов по привилегированным акциям в размере 70 млн. долларов США из чистой прибыли в 7,75 млрд. рублей за 2025 год. Дивиденды по обыкновенным акциям не будут выплачиваться.
16.07.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО НК 'РуссНефть' одобрил сделки с заинтересованностью на заседании 16.07.2026, на котором присутствовали 11 из 11 членов совета. Все голоса были 'за', без воздержавшихся и против.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Russneft (RNFT) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Russneft (RNFT)'s P/E ratio?
Russneft (RNFT) trades at a P/E of 1.0x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Russneft (RNFT)'s EV/EBITDA?
Russneft (RNFT) trades at 2.8x EV/EBITDA.
What is Russneft (RNFT)'s P/B ratio?
Russneft (RNFT) trades at a P/B of 0.2x.
What is Russneft (RNFT)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Russneft (RNFT)'s ROE is 21.1%.
What is Russneft (RNFT)'s market capitalization?
Russneft (RNFT)'s market cap is 26.8 bn RUB.

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