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Rosneft RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
✗Revenue declining (-19%)✗Profit falling (-59%)✗Margins compressing (29%→25%)

Sector: Oil & Gas

RU_ROSN

Price chart

348.7 RUBDay 1.57%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
348.7 RUB · 1.57%
Market cap
3695.6 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-11.0%
Δ EBITDA y/y
24.0%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
8.6x
3y avg: 5.6x
P/B (FY)
0.4x
P/E (ann.)
5.7x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
3.3x
3y avg: 3.4x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
2.5x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.5%
FCF yield (LTM)
4.2%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+40.7%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
8.3 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in T RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueT RUBOperating profitT RUBD&AT RUBEBITDAT RUBNet profitT RUBOperating CFT RUBCapex + M&AT RUBAssetsT RUBEquityT RUBROE (annualized)Net debtT RUBSource
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK2.0
y/y -11.0%
0.3
y/y -7.3%
0.4
y/y 72.3%
0.7
y/y 24.0%
0.2
y/y -41.5%
——22.0
y/y 7.4%
9.3
y/y 1.4%
7.1%3.6Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK1.9
y/y -19.8%
0.3
y/y -40.1%
0.3
y/y 10.3%
0.5
y/y -23.1%
0.1
y/y -67.7%
——21.6
y/y 4.2%
9.1
y/y -0.9%
6.0%3.6Report (PDF)
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK2.0
y/y -19.5%
0.2
y/y -48.0%
0.3
y/y 19.6%
0.5
y/y -26.1%
0.1
y/y -68.7%
——21.6
y/y 10.1%
9.2
y/y -0.3%
0.9%3.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK2.0
y/y -23.9%
0.2
y/y -61.1%
0.2
y/y 11.9%
0.5
y/y -42.3%
0.1
y/y -69.3%
0.6-0.420.3
y/y —
9.0
y/y —
6.2%3.6Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK2.3
y/y -12.0%
0.4
y/y -44.9%
0.2
y/y 15.5%
0.6
y/y -30.6%
0.3
y/y -43.0%
0.4-0.420.5
y/y 6.7%
9.1
y/y 2.0%
12.1%3.6Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK2.4
y/y -4.8%
0.5
y/y 12.9%
0.2
y/y 23.4%
0.7
y/y 16.2%
0.2
y/y -20.2%
0.7-0.420.7
y/y 10.1%
9.2
y/y 8.8%
14.6%3.6Report (PDF)
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK2.5
y/y -7.9%
0.4
y/y -43.8%
0.2
y/y 13.2%
0.7
y/y -32.8%
0.2
y/y -64.2%
0.7-0.419.6
y/y 4.7%
9.2
y/y 8.4%
—3.2Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)PARTIAL2.6
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
0.8
y/y —
0.5
y/y —
0.6-0.4—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—2.9Link
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK2.6
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
0.8
y/y —
0.5
y/y —
0.4-0.319.2
y/y —
9.0
y/y —
22.4%2.9Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK2.6
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
1.0-0.218.8
y/y —
8.4
y/y —
18.1%2.5Report (PDF)
2023-09-30Q3 2023 (3M)OK-1.1
y/y —
-0.2
y/y —
-0.2
y/y —
-0.4
y/y —
-0.2
y/y —
-0.40.318.8
y/y —
8.5
y/y —
9.3%2.4Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK3.9
y/y —
1.0
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
1.4
y/y —
0.7
y/y —
1.1-0.717.4
y/y —
7.4
y/y —
—2.4Report (PDF)

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

-2 000 00002 000 0004 000 0006 000 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Year-over-year change

-50%0%50%100%2023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-200 0000200 000400 000600 000800 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

01 000 0002 000 0003 000 0004 000 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Oil & Gas

Annual production
1 832 mln boe
2025

Production, mln boe

1 90020241 8322025

Production

YearProduction, mln boe
20251 832
−3.6%
20241 900

Rosneft FY2025 IFRS results (rosneft.com): hydrocarbons 246.6 Mtoe (5.02 mln boepd) ≈ 1,832 mln boe/yr; -3.6% YoY vs 255.9 Mtoe FY2024 (OPEC+ quotas). boe/yr conversion ours. PRMS 2P reserves in tonnes (~11.4 bn toe), not shown.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −30% (factor 0.70)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Urals

Current 98spot vs LTM +28%

Commodity price upside

Oil model: per-barrel, net-of-tax EBITDA projection. Only part of a Urals move reaches EBITDA — the rest is taken by mineral-extraction tax (~75% at the margin). Production × net-of-tax × Δprice → EBITDA → conservative (min spot/avg) → target market cap at the current EV/EBITDA.

Upside (conservative): +41% · spot +68% · 3-yr +13%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue8.24 trn RUB
EBITDA2.06 trn RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)6.18 trn RUB
2 · Urals oil price ($/bbl)
Spot$97.7
LTM average$76.6
3-yr average$80.4
3 · EBITDA projection (per-barrel, net of tax)
Production, mln bbl/yr · Frontier 2025 (mln boe)1,832
Net-of-tax pass-through of Δprice (НДПИ)25%
Price effect on EBITDA — spot768.5 bln RUB
Price effect on EBITDA — 3-yr143.8 bln RUB
= Spot EBITDA (LTM + effect)2.82 trn RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA2.20 trn RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/22.51 trn RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))2.51 trn RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (current)3.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA9.61 trn RUB
Net debt3.57 trn RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt6.03 trn RUB
Current market cap4.29 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +41%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -19% vs +11% the year before — a -29.4 pp move. 3-year CAGR —.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +5% · 2024 +11% · 2025 -19%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -61%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)544 bn RUB
Payout ratio47%
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)13.83 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share13.83 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.2%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-7.6 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.8%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price346 ₽
Forecast dividend yield4.0%
Fair price (dividend-based)136 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 13.83 RUB/sh · 4.0%

Pay yearDividend /sh
202613.83 ₽
202551.15 ₽
202459.78 ₽
202338.36 ₽
202223.63 ₽
202124.97 ₽
202018.07 ₽
201926.67 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2026 q32026-07-082.27 ₽
2026 q12026-01-0911.56 ₽
2025 q32025-07-1714.68 ₽
2025 q12025-01-0936.47 ₽
2024 q32024-07-0829.01 ₽
2024 q12024-01-1030.77 ₽
2023 q32023-07-0717.97 ₽
2023 q12023-01-1020.39 ₽
2022 q32022-07-0723.63 ₽
2021 q42021-10-0718.03 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 51% buy — balanced5d: 51% buy — balanced20d: 50% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 16 bid / 32 ask; largest — ask 355.95 (filled ×6.0 of displayed, 108 refills).
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 4 bid / 4 ask; largest — ask 874 lots ×662 appearances across 181 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×982, ask ×1068.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
23.0751%16/324/4100,660
22.0753%11/913/979,836
21.0752%2/413/1460,877
20.0751%0/018/868,080
17.0747%3/011/1253,314

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Corporate events

02.03.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентсвом на основании договора
Рейтинг финансового инструмента ПАО «Роснефть» был присвоен на уровне AAA(RU) 2 марта 2026 года. Рейтинг касается биржевых облигаций серии 005P-01 с регистрационным номером 4B02-01-00122-A-005P.
22.07.26Material eventСведения, оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость его эмиссионных ценных бумаг
22 июля 2026 года ПАО «НК «Роснефть» не приобрело облигации по требованию владельцев, так как не было предъявлено ни одной облигации к выкупу, что не оказало влияния на финансовые показатели компании.
20.07.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО «Роснефть» утвердил изменения в Политику Компании по инновационной деятельности. Решение было принято на заочном голосовании 16 июля 2026 года, кворум был соблюден.
01.07.26BuybackПриобретение (наступление оснований для приобретения) размещенных эмитентом облигаций
ПАО «НК «Роснефть» планирует приобрести свои биржевые облигации серии 002Р-11 по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости с дополнительной выплатой накопленного купонного дохода. Срок оплаты облигаций установлен на 22.07.2026, а период предъявления облигаций к приобретению - с 13.07.2026 по 17.07.2026.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 1 of 17 funds, ≈53 млн ₽ combined. Last month: left top-10 — 1.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акцийДОХОДЪ5.98%53 млн ₽—29.05.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Перваяleft top-10 (was 3.51%)29.05.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1, last 30 days: 3 (1 positive, 1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 21 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=6505

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Rosneft — from primary filings.

ROSN (Rosneft) is a Russian integrated oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.

Frequently asked questions

What is Rosneft's P/E ratio?
Rosneft trades at a P/E of 8.6x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Rosneft's EV/EBITDA?
Rosneft trades at 3.3x EV/EBITDA.
What is Rosneft's P/B ratio?
Rosneft trades at a P/B of 0.4x.
What is Rosneft's dividend yield?
Rosneft's trailing 12-month dividend yield is 6.5%.
What is Rosneft's return on equity (ROE)?
Rosneft's ROE is 7.1%.
What is Rosneft's market capitalization?
Rosneft's market cap is 3695.6 bn RUB.