Russneft: H1 profit up a third, but debt added RUB 21.8 bn in six months

25 августа Русснефть раскрыла промежуточную сокращённую консолидированную финансовую отчётность за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка почти не изменилась (+0,7% год к году), зато EBITDA прибавила 37,5%, а чистая прибыль – 34,7%. Разбор показывает, что рост маржинальности обеспечен снижением себестоимости, а не увеличением продаж, и что компания активно наращивает долг, финансируя выкуп акций.

Key takeaways

— H1 EBITDA up 37.5% on revenue +0.7% – margin jumped from 20.2% to 27.5%

— Cost of sales down RUB 11 bn – mainly due to lower MET of RUB 7.9 bn

— Net profit up 34.7% to RUB 15.9 bn for the half-year, but includes one-off swap gains

— Debt up RUB 21.8 bn in six months to RUB 59.6 bn, largely due to share buybacks

— Operating cash flow for H1 – RUB 27.6 bn, but after capex and interest little remains

— Dividend over 12 months – RUB 13.38 per share, yield 17.3%, but model expects lower next payout

— Shares down 6.9% after the report – market saw rising debt and auditor's qualification

Key figures, RUB bn

H1 EBITDA up 37.5% on revenue +0.7% – margin jumped from 20.2% to 27.5%

For H1 2026, Russneft's revenue was RUB 120.4 bn, up only 0.7% year-on-year. EBITDA, however, grew 37.5% to RUB 33.1 bn (calculated: 120.4 × 27.5%). EBITDA margin reached 27.5% versus 20.2% a year earlier.

The main driver of margin expansion was lower cost of sales – down from RUB 84.5 bn to RUB 73.4 bn for the half-year. This offset the flat revenue and boosted profitability.

Cost of sales down RUB 11 bn – mainly due to lower MET of RUB 7.9 bn

Cost of sales for the half-year fell from RUB 84.5 bn to RUB 73.4 bn. The key line – mineral extraction tax – dropped from RUB 62.5 bn to RUB 54.6 bn, i.e. by RUB 7.9 bn. That accounts for almost three-quarters of the total cost reduction.

Labour costs also declined noticeably (from RUB 5.3 bn to RUB 4.6 bn) and transport costs (from RUB 1.6 bn to RUB 1.4 bn). At the same time, domestic oil sales revenue fell from RUB 60.4 bn to RUB 32.8 bn, while export revenue rose from RUB 55.5 bn to RUB 84.1 bn – the sales mix shifted toward exports, where MET is lower.

Net profit up 34.7% to RUB 15.9 bn for the half-year, but includes one-off swap gains

Net profit for H1 2026 was RUB 15.9 bn versus RUB 11.8 bn a year earlier (+34.7%). The growth was driven by operational efficiency, but also by the line 'Change in fair value and settlement – swaps' of RUB 1.9 bn income (last year – RUB 3.2 bn).

Finance costs rose from RUB 7.4 bn to RUB 9.8 bn – mainly due to interest on loans (from RUB 3.4 bn to RUB 7.3 bn). This partially offset the operational growth.

Debt up RUB 21.8 bn in six months to RUB 59.6 bn, largely due to share buybacks

Net debt as of June 30, 2026 was RUB 59.6 bn, up RUB 21.8 bn from the previous reporting date. Over 12 months, the increase was even larger – RUB 43.5 bn. Net debt / EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stood at 1.94.

The main reason for the debt increase is share buybacks: RUB 29.7 bn was spent on this in the half-year (line 'Purchase of own shares' in the cash flow statement). The company also raised new loans of RUB 28.7 bn, partially repaying old ones.

Operating cash flow for H1 – RUB 27.6 bn, but after capex and interest little remains

Operating cash flow for H1 2026 was RUB 27.6 bn versus RUB 21.7 bn a year earlier. Capital expenditures – RUB 11.3 bn (last year – RUB 14.4 bn). Interest paid – RUB 5.7 bn.

Free cash flow before buybacks is about RUB 10.6 bn (27.6 – 11.3 – 5.7). That is enough for dividends, but not for buybacks – the company finances them with debt.

Dividend over 12 months – RUB 13.38 per share, yield 17.3%, but model expects lower next payout

Over the last 12 months, Russneft paid dividends of RUB 13.38 per share, implying a yield of 17.3% at the current price. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 8.92 per share – that is an 11.5% yield, above the 10.5% we consider fair for this name.

The implied payout ratio is 0.17 of profit. This means the company allocates only a small portion of profit to dividends, preferring to spend on share buybacks.

Shares down 6.9% after the report – market saw rising debt and auditor's qualification

The share price before the release was RUB 84.2, rose 0.5% on the release day, but by August 17 had fallen 6.9% – to around RUB 78.4 (calculated: 84.2 × (1 – 0.069)).

The market likely reacted to two things: a significant increase in debt and the auditor's qualification that part of long-term loans may be repayable early due to covenant breaches. The auditor estimated such loans at RUB 114.4 bn as of June 30, 2026 – more than the entire net debt.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Russneft showed strong operational dynamics: H1 EBITDA grew 37.5% thanks to lower cost of sales, and net profit rose 34.7%. However, debt growth of RUB 21.8 bn in six months, driven by share buybacks, and the auditor's qualification about possible early repayment of loans create serious uncertainty. Dividend yield remains high (17.3% over 12 months), but the model expects lower payouts. The key question for holders is whether the company can refinance its debt without losing control over covenants.