Russia Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

On 28 October Zaymer MFK reported third-quarter 2026 results. Net interest income came in at 4,007.5 mn RUB, down 23.8% year on year, and net profit at 715.6 mn RUB, 48.0% below the prior-year level. The top line keeps decelerating: after a 15.0% decline in the second quarter, the third quarter fell 23.8%. The stock trades at a P/E LTM of 4.8 with a 25.1% dividend yield, and the portal's model puts upside to fair value at +22%. At the current price the share looks rather attractive, but mainly on the dividend – the fundamental trend has not yet turned.

Key takeaways

— Profit fell twice as fast as revenue – the profit share of net interest income compressed from 26.2% to 17.9%

— The customer loan book shrank from 12,108.7 mn to 10,878.6 mn RUB since the start of the year

— Fee and commission income rose to 534.1 mn RUB in the quarter and partly offset the interest-income decline

— The 31.93 RUB per share dividend yields 25.1% – nearly double the 14.6% level we consider fair

— P/E LTM of 4.8 and ROE of 6.8% show the market is already pricing in further profit compression

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Net interest income in Q3 2026 came to 4,007.5 mn RUB versus 5,260.1 mn RUB a year earlier. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline in year-on-year terms: after -1.1% in Q4 2025, the fall accelerated to -9.3% in Q1 2026, then to -15.0% in Q2 and to -23.8% in Q3.

The main cause is the shrinking loan book. Gross customer loans fell from 33,706.1 mn RUB at end-2025 to 29,804.2 mn RUB at 30 September 2026, and the number of borrowers from 1,815,138 to 1,551,394. The company issued 32,212.9 mn RUB of new loans in nine months versus 43,189.3 mn RUB a year earlier – it deliberately scaled lending down.

The average monthly principal balance over nine months of 2026 was 17,843.7 mn RUB versus 21,093.3 mn RUB a year earlier. This confirms the decline in interest income is not a one-off but a consequence of business contraction.

Profit fell twice as fast as revenue – the profit share of net interest income compressed from 26.2% to 17.9%

Net profit in Q3 came to 715.6 mn RUB versus 1,375.9 mn RUB a year earlier, a 48.0% decline against a 23.8% fall in net interest income. The profit share of net interest income dropped from 26.2% to 17.9%.

Several factors weighed on profit. The credit-loss impairment charge for nine months was 5,069.9 mn RUB versus 6,530.6 mn RUB a year earlier – the absolute amount fell, but the share of defaulted loans in the book remains high: 23,922.2 mn RUB out of 29,804.2 mn RUB gross, or 80.3%.

General and administrative expenses rose to 6,729.1 mn RUB from 5,278.7 mn RUB a year earlier. Personnel costs more than doubled, from 1,099.7 mn to 2,205.8 mn RUB, and depreciation from 209.3 mn to 405.8 mn RUB. Marketing expenses, by contrast, were cut from 2,756.0 mn to 2,648.4 mn RUB.

The customer loan book shrank from 12,108.7 mn to 10,878.6 mn RUB since the start of the year

Net customer loans stood at 10,878.6 mn RUB at 30 September 2026 versus 12,108.7 mn RUB at end-2025. The contraction is a direct result of issuing fewer new loans and writing off problem debt more actively.

Write-offs over nine months of 2026 were 1,777.1 mn RUB versus 2,399.0 mn RUB a year earlier. Defaulted loans make up 80.3% of the gross book, and the provision covers 74.5% of them. Even as the absolute provision falls, portfolio quality remains weak.

The company also sells distressed portfolios: the loss on loan-portfolio sales over nine months of 2026 was 373.6 mn RUB versus 710.7 mn RUB a year earlier. The smaller loss on sales is one of the few positive shifts in the report.

Fee and commission income rose to 534.1 mn RUB in the quarter and partly offset the interest-income decline

Fee and commission income in Q3 2026 was 534.1 mn RUB versus 598.9 mn RUB a year earlier. Over nine months it rose to 2,138.1 mn RUB from 1,471.9 mn RUB, but the quarterly trend is already negative.

The nine-month increase came mainly from new lines: payment and transfer commissions brought 457.4 mn RUB, a line that did not exist a year earlier. Penalty income rose to 121.0 mn RUB from 96.6 mn RUB.

Commission expenses also rose, to 592.6 mn RUB from 276.5 mn RUB over nine months. Of that, 390.3 mn RUB was payment and transfer service fees, absent a year earlier. The net effect of the new payment services on profit is still small.

The 31.93 RUB per share dividend yields 25.1% – nearly double the 14.6% level we consider fair

Over the last 12 months the company paid 31.93 RUB per share, a 25.1% yield to the current price. Our model estimates the next dividend at the same 31.93 RUB per share, so the forward yield is also 25.1%. We consider 14.6% a fair yield for this name.

The payout history is uneven: 16.6 RUB per share for 2024 (9.5% at the ex-date price), 35.83 RUB for 2025 (22.6%), and 20.32 RUB for 2026 (15.8%). Dividends declared over nine months of 2026 were 2,032.0 mn RUB versus 1,371.0 mn RUB a year earlier, with 1,545.8 mn RUB actually paid.

The key risk to the dividend is profit. With a payout ratio of 0.61 of profit and a falling profit base, the company may cut the payout. If profit keeps declining at the same pace, the 31.93 RUB dividend could come under pressure. The 14.0% central bank key rate makes the current yield especially attractive relative to deposits.

P/E LTM of 4.8 and ROE of 6.8% show the market is already pricing in further profit compression

With a market capitalisation of 13,125.0 mn RUB and trailing twelve-month profit of 2,746.1 mn RUB, the P/E LTM is 4.8. ROE is 6.8%, modest for a microfinance company. The portal's model puts upside to fair value at +22%.

The market values the company cheaply, but that reflects falling profit: 2,746.1 mn RUB over the last 12 months versus 3,237.0 mn RUB over nine months of 2025. If the current quarterly pace persists, annual profit could be even lower.

A 25.1% dividend yield against a 14.0% key rate creates a wide spread. But if profit keeps falling, the dividend may be cut, and the current yield would prove deceptive. A P/E of 4.8 looks low, but without a profit turnaround a re-rating is unlikely.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The report's strong point remains the dividend: 31.93 RUB per share yields 25.1% against a 14.0% key rate, and declared payouts over nine months rose to 2,032.0 mn RUB. But profit fell 48.0%, revenue 23.8%, and the decline has accelerated for three quarters in a row. The loan book is shrinking, quality remains weak, and personnel costs more than doubled. At a P/E LTM of 4.8 and +22% upside on the portal's model, the share looks rather attractive – but only for those willing to hold it for the dividend and accept the risk of a cut.

In its Q3 2026 report Sberbank posted net interest income of RUB 1,107.7 bn, up 24.0% year on year, and net profit of RUB 510.8 bn (+13.9%). Profit growth is markedly slower than interest income growth, and its ratio to net interest income fell to 46.1% from 50.2% a year earlier. The stock trades at a P/E LTM of 3.5 and offers a trailing dividend yield of 12.6% – our estimate for the next payout is 42.33 per share, or 14.2% at the current price. Given the discount to its own multiple, a strong dividend record and the portal model's +30% upside, the share looks attractive, although the deceleration in interest income growth from 26.7% in Q2 to 24.0% in Q3 warrants monitoring.

Key takeaways

— Net interest income grew 24.0% year on year, but the pace decelerated from 26.7% in Q2

— Profit added only 13.9%, and its share of net interest income fell to 46.1%

— Fee and commission income is nearly flat and does not offset pressure on profit

— Dividend yield of 12.6% and an estimated next payout of 42.33 per share

— P/E LTM of 3.5 and +30% upside on the portal's model

— ROE of 7.7% against a 14.0% key rate – capital earns less than money costs

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Net interest income grew 24.0% year on year, but the pace decelerated from 26.7% in Q2

In Q3 2026 Sberbank's net interest income reached RUB 1,107.7 bn, up 24.0% from the same quarter a year earlier. That is a strong result, but it is slower than the 26.7% growth seen in Q2. The deceleration of 2.7 percentage points is the first signal that the growth rate in interest income is starting to level off.

The figure is supported by the high key rate of 14.0%, which allows the bank to earn on placing funds. Further dynamics will depend on how quickly the regulator begins to cut rates. For now, quarterly growth of 24.0% remains solid, and against the previous three quarters (18.2%, 26.7% and 24.0%) it is clear the bank is holding a high base.

For shareholders, it matters that interest income is the main source of profit, and its deceleration feeds into profit with a lag. If the slowdown continues, it will limit the ability to grow dividend payments at the same pace as in recent years.

Profit added only 13.9%, and its share of net interest income fell to 46.1%

Net profit in Q3 2026 was RUB 510.8 bn, up 13.9% year on year. That is almost half the growth rate of net interest income. As a result, the ratio of profit to net interest income fell to 46.1% from 50.2% a year earlier. This is not a margin or a profitability measure, but a ratio of two absolute figures, and it shows that revenue growth is accompanied by faster growth in costs or charges.

Profit is growing, but its conversion from interest income is deteriorating. The cause may be higher funding costs, rising operating expenses or provisioning – the report does not provide a breakdown within our review. Nevertheless, the 4.1 percentage point decline in profit's share of interest income is a significant signal for assessing the sustainability of the dividend base.

It is worth remembering that Q3 2026 profit is a standalone figure, not a cumulative total. For an annual assessment, the LTM profit of RUB 1,928.5 bn is more important, and it is this figure that feeds into the dividend calculation.

Fee and commission income is nearly flat and does not offset pressure on profit

Fee and commission income in Q3 2026 was RUB 212.3 bn, essentially in line with the previous quarter (RUB 215.3 bn) and slightly below the year-earlier figure (RUB 216.5 bn). In effect, the fee business is stagnating: it is not growing and does not help offset the slowdown in net interest income.

Fees account for a smaller share of the bank's income than interest, but their contribution is important for diversification. The lack of growth here means that the entire burden of supporting profit falls on net interest income, which is itself starting to decelerate. This increases the vulnerability of the financial result to a decline in the key rate.

For shareholders, this is another argument that the current profit level may come under pressure if interest income stops growing as fast as it did in recent quarters.

Dividend yield of 12.6% and an estimated next payout of 42.33 per share

Over the last 12 months Sberbank paid RUB 37.64 per share, which at the current price gives a dividend yield of 12.6%. That is above the yield we consider fair for this name (10.5%) and well above the key rate of 14.0% after tax advantages for long-term holders. Our model estimates the next payout at RUB 42.33 per share, corresponding to a forward yield of 14.2%.

The payout estimate is based on a payout ratio of about 0.49 of profit and LTM profit of RUB 1,928.5 bn. If profit holds at the current level, a dividend of RUB 42.33 looks achievable. However, the decline in profit's share of interest income to 46.1% and stagnating fee income are factors that could limit profit growth and, consequently, the dividend.

The payment history shows stability: RUB 18.7 in 2020 and 2021, RUB 25.0 in 2023, RUB 33.3 in 2024, RUB 34.84 in 2025 and RUB 37.64 in 2026. The yield at the ex-date ranged from 5.7% to 13.4%, and the current level of 12.6% is in the upper part of the historical range. This supports the appeal of the stock for income investors.

What could reduce the payout: a further slowdown in net interest income, higher provisions or operating expenses, or a change in dividend policy. For now, the combination of high yield and a moderate payout ratio leaves room for manoeuvre.

P/E LTM of 3.5 and +30% upside on the portal's model

Sberbank's stock trades at a P/E LTM of 3.5 – a very low multiple that reflects both high profit and persistent country risks. The three-year history of the multiple is not provided in the facts, so we cannot compare the current level with its historical average. However, an absolute value of 3.5 looks modest for a bank with an ROE of 7.7% and a stable dividend record.

According to the portal's model, which compares ROE with P/B, the upside to fair value is estimated at +30%. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus. It rests on the assumption that current profit is sustainable and the P/B multiple will gradually move towards a level consistent with the return on capital.

It is worth noting that the stock is held in several of the portal's model strategies: RU AI conviction, RU AI long-short, RU Banks & financials and RU Dividend growers. This is a fact, not an argument for the verdict, but it shows that the stock passes the screens of different approaches – from dividend to quantitative.

ROE of 7.7% against a 14.0% key rate – capital earns less than money costs

Sberbank's LTM return on equity is 7.7%, below the key rate of 14.0%. This means the bank earns less on capital than a risk-free placement would yield. Such a gap weighs on valuation: investors demand a higher dividend yield as compensation for low capital efficiency.

Low ROE alongside a high P/E may be explained by the structure of profit: a significant portion of income comes from interest operations, which are sensitive to the rate. If the rate starts to decline, ROE could recover through lending growth, but that will take time. For now, the ratio of ROE to the cost of capital remains the weak link in the investment case.

For the dividend record this is not critical: a payout ratio of about 0.49 allows payments to be maintained even at moderate profitability. However, the long-term sustainability of the dividend depends on the bank's ability to raise ROE or at least keep it at the current level.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The report's strengths remain net interest income growth of 24.0% and a stable dividend record with a current yield of 12.6%. However, profit is growing more slowly at 13.9%, and its share of interest income is declining, pointing to pressure on the conversion of revenue into profit. The dividend yield is above what we consider fair for the stock, and the portal model implies +30% upside. The key question for a holder now is whether the bank can sustain interest income growth and return on equity against a possible rate cut. The verdict is attractive, but with a caveat on deceleration.

On November 25, OZON released its third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 62.7% year on year to RUB 421.2 bn, EBITDA – by 49.4% to RUB 58.3 bn, but its margin fell to 13.8% from 15.1% a year earlier. Growth accelerated versus the second quarter (+46.8%), while leverage at 1.53x LTM EBITDA remains moderate. At the current price the share looks rather attractive: revenue growth is accelerating and a 5.9% dividend yield supports holders.

Key takeaways

— Q3 revenue grew 62.7% year on year to RUB 421.2 bn, an acceleration from 46.8% in Q2

— EBITDA rose 49.4% year on year, but its margin compressed to 13.8% from 15.1% a year earlier

— Net debt rose to RUB 278.8 bn on September 30, 2026 from RUB 239.3 bn on June 30, with net debt/LTM EBITDA at 1.53x

— Dividends paid over the last 12 months amounted to RUB 213.55 per share, a 5.9% yield

— The portal's model puts upside to fair value at +55%

— The share is held in the portal's live model strategies: RU AI conviction, RU AI long-short and RU Growth-stories

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Q3 revenue grew 62.7% year on year to RUB 421.2 bn, an acceleration from 46.8% in Q2

OZON's Q3 2026 revenue reached RUB 421.2 bn, up 62.7% year on year. In Q2 growth was slower at 46.8%, so the current quarter shows acceleration. This is the highest growth rate in the last four quarters: 48.9% in Q1 2026 and 44.1% in Q4 2025.

The acceleration matters for valuation: it means the business is scaling faster than the previous quarters' trend implied. The absolute quarterly revenue increase of about RUB 162 bn is comparable to the company's entire quarterly revenue two years ago.

EBITDA rose 49.4% year on year, but its margin compressed to 13.8% from 15.1% a year earlier

Q3 2026 EBITDA came in at RUB 58.3 bn, up 49.4% year on year. However, EBITDA growth lags revenue growth (+62.7%), pushing the margin down to 13.8% from 15.1% in Q3 2025.

The 1.3 percentage point margin compression means costs are rising faster than revenue. The company did not disclose in the provided facts which cost line drove this, so we state the fact: EBITDA is growing in absolute terms, but efficiency per ruble of revenue declined. For an investor this signals that scaling is not yet accompanied by improving profitability.

Net debt rose to RUB 278.8 bn on September 30, 2026 from RUB 239.3 bn on June 30, with net debt/LTM EBITDA at 1.53x

Net debt on September 30, 2026 stood at RUB 278.8 bn, up RUB 39.5 bn from RUB 239.3 bn on June 30, 2026. Over the year, from RUB 170.2 bn on September 30, 2025, debt rose by RUB 108.7 bn. Debt growth accompanies business expansion but requires monitoring.

The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio is 1.53x. This is a moderate level that leaves room for further growth financing. The facts do not include earlier values of this ratio, so we do not assess its direction.

Dividends paid over the last 12 months amounted to RUB 213.55 per share, a 5.9% yield

Over the last 12 months OZON paid dividends of RUB 213.55 per share, giving a current yield of 5.9%. In 2026 the payout was RUB 70.0 per share with a 1.7% yield at the ex-date, and in 2025 – RUB 143.55 with a 3.4% yield.

For a dividend history these are substantial payments. The 5.9% yield is well above the 2025 and 2026 levels, reflecting both the dividend growth and the current share price. The company remains a growth story, and payouts may vary depending on profit and investment needs. Our estimate for the current year assumes payouts remain at the last-12-month level, provided profit and cash flow support them.

The portal's model puts upside to fair value at +55%

The portal's model, which compares EBITDA growth with a target multiple and market capitalization, puts the upside to fair value at +55%. This is the portal's own estimate, not a market consensus or a target price.

The current EV/EBITDA LTM multiple is 5.54x, and P/E LTM is 38.52x. For a growing company with accelerating revenue these levels look moderate, especially given the dividend yield. However, the facts do not include a comparison with the company's own multiple history, so we limit ourselves to stating current values.

The share is held in the portal's live model strategies: RU AI conviction, RU AI long-short and RU Growth-stories

OZON is included in three live model strategies on the portal: RU AI conviction (Claude), RU AI long-short (market-neutral) and RU Growth-stories (GARP). Inclusion reflects passing these strategies' screens and is not an argument for the verdict.

For holders this means the share is present in model portfolios, but each investor makes their own buy or sell decision based on their goals and constraints.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The strong point of the report was revenue growth of 62.7% year on year with acceleration versus Q2. However, EBITDA grew slower at 49.4%, and the margin compressed to 13.8%. Leverage at 1.53x LTM EBITDA remains moderate, and a 5.9% dividend yield supports holders. The portal's model puts upside at +55%. Verdict – rather attractive: revenue acceleration and the dividend outweigh the margin compression, but margin sustainability remains the key question.

On 21 May 2026, VK company released its operational and unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2026, along with data for the nine months of 2026. Revenue for the reporting period reached RUB 128 bn, adjusted EBITDA came in at RUB 20.2 bn with a 15.8% margin, and operating cash flow was RUB 17.4 bn. Net profit for the nine months remains negative, while the net debt to EBITDA ratio over the last twelve months stands at 2.34. The shares look neutral: revenue and EBITDA are growing, but negative profit and leverage leave no room for a higher rating.

Key takeaways

— Revenue for the nine months rose to RUB 128 bn, but without a segment breakdown for this period it is impossible to tell what is driving it

— EBITDA of RUB 20.2 bn at a 15.8% margin is a level that has not yet translated into positive net profit

— Operating cash flow of RUB 17.4 bn is almost equal to EBITDA, but capex and interest consume that cushion

— Net debt of RUB 82.3 bn at 2.34x EBITDA is a burden that limits room for manoeuvre

— A valuation of 4.78x LTM EBITDA looks inexpensive, but negative profit and debt prevent that valuation from materialising

— Management's guidance of EBITDA above RUB 24 bn for 2026 is the main benchmark to be tested at year-end

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue for the nine months rose to RUB 128 bn, but without a segment breakdown for this period it is impossible to tell what is driving it

VK company's revenue for the nine months of 2026 amounted to RUB 128 bn. This is the only comparable figure for the reporting period disclosed in the press release. The segment breakdown in the document is given only for the first quarter of 2026, so it cannot be extrapolated to the full nine-month period.

In the first quarter of 2026, group revenue was RUB 37.6 bn, up 6% year on year. The main contribution came from the Social Platforms and Media Content segment at RUB 26.1 bn, up 6%. The Business Technologies segment (VK Tech) grew 59% to RUB 4.29 bn, and Educational Technologies grew 23% to RUB 2.5 bn.

This growth structure means that the fastest-growing segments are small in revenue terms, while the core segment adds a modest 6%. For the nine months, this means the overall revenue dynamic of RUB 128 bn rests on a large but slow-growing social segment rather than on the fast-growing technology lines.

EBITDA of RUB 20.2 bn at a 15.8% margin is a level that has not yet translated into positive net profit

Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months of 2026 was RUB 20.2 bn at a 15.8% margin. This means that for every rouble of revenue, the company earns about 16 kopecks of operating profit before depreciation, interest and taxes.

In the first quarter of 2026, EBITDA was RUB 6.4 bn at a 17% margin, up 27% year on year. All operating segments showed positive EBITDA margins. The Social Platforms and Media Content segment generated RUB 6.2 bn of EBITDA at a 24% margin, Educational Technologies RUB 0.6 bn at 24%, and VK Tech RUB 0.28 bn at 7%.

The 15.8% margin for the nine months is below the 17% seen in the first quarter. This means that margins in the second and third quarters were weaker than at the start of the year. At the same time, net profit for the nine months remains negative, and return on equity is minus 3.3%. EBITDA does not cover depreciation, interest and taxes sufficiently to bring the company into profit.

Operating cash flow of RUB 17.4 bn is almost equal to EBITDA, but capex and interest consume that cushion

Operating cash flow for the nine months of 2026 was RUB 17.4 bn. This is roughly 86% of EBITDA for the same period. Such a gap means the company converts operating profit into cash fairly efficiently, but not fully.

The press release does not disclose capital expenditure for the nine months. However, with revenue of RUB 128 bn and negative net profit, it is fair to say that capex and interest expenses together exceed the difference between EBITDA and operating cash flow. Otherwise the company would have shown a positive profit.

In the first quarter of 2026, the company sold a 25% stake in AO Tochka for RUB 21.2 bn and placed exchange-traded bonds worth RUB 10 bn. These one-off inflows increase the cash cushion but are not an operating result. Without them, the cash reserve would be smaller and leverage higher.

Net debt of RUB 82.3 bn at 2.34x EBITDA is a burden that limits room for manoeuvre

VK company's net debt at the end of the latest annual balance sheet was RUB 82.3 bn. The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the last twelve months is 2.34. This level cannot be called critical, but it is not comfortable either for a company with negative net profit.

In the first quarter of 2026, net debt decreased by RUB 20 bn to RUB 62 bn compared with the end of 2025, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.6. This decrease was partly due to the sale of a 25% stake in AO Tochka for RUB 21.2 bn and the placement of bonds worth RUB 10 bn.

The difference between RUB 62 bn at the end of April 2026 and RUB 82.3 bn at the end of the latest annual balance sheet is explained by different dates. For the investor, what matters is that the company actively manages its debt, but does so partly through asset sales rather than solely through operating cash flow.

A valuation of 4.78x LTM EBITDA looks inexpensive, but negative profit and debt prevent that valuation from materialising

The EV/EBITDA ratio over the last twelve months is 4.78. With a market capitalisation of RUB 85.9 bn and net debt of RUB 82.3 bn, this means investors value the company at about 4.8 times annual EBITDA. For a growing technology business, this is not a high valuation.

However, negative net profit and a return on equity of minus 3.3% mean the company is not yet earning on equity capital. Until profit turns positive, the low EBITDA multiple will remain more a reflection of risks than of undervaluation.

Comparing the current multiple with its own three-year history is not possible: the facts do not include a three-year average. So we limit ourselves to stating: 4.78x EBITDA is a level that implies either significant future profit growth or the persistence of current risks.

Management's guidance of EBITDA above RUB 24 bn for 2026 is the main benchmark to be tested at year-end

In the press release for the first quarter of 2026, the company raised its EBITDA guidance for 2026 to above RUB 24 bn. That is RUB 3.8 bn more than the RUB 20.2 bn for the nine months of 2026. To meet the guidance, the company needs to earn about RUB 3.8 bn of EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

For comparison, EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 was RUB 6.4 bn. If the fourth quarter is no worse than the first, the guidance is achievable. However, the 15.8% margin for the nine months is below the 17% seen in the first quarter, which points to a possible slowdown.

The main risk to meeting the guidance is the persistence of negative net profit. If interest expenses and depreciation remain high, even meeting the EBITDA guidance will not lead to positive profit. The investor should watch the dynamics of net profit and leverage in the next report.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report remains revenue growth to RUB 128 bn and EBITDA to RUB 20.2 bn for the nine months, along with operating cash flow of RUB 17.4 bn, which almost covers EBITDA. The weak side is negative net profit and leverage of 2.34x EBITDA, which prevent the 4.78x EBITDA valuation from being called undervaluation. The main question for a holder now is whether the company can turn profitable while maintaining current growth. The verdict is neutral: the arguments for and against roughly balance each other out.

On 30 September 2026, X5 Retail released its third-quarter 2026 results. Revenue reached RUB 1,311.0 bn, up 11.3% year on year, but EBITDA and net profit for the reported quarter were not disclosed. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue amounted to RUB 5,029.5 bn, net profit to RUB 67.9 bn, and the dividend yield on last year's payouts stands at 26.2%. At the current price the share looks attractive: the EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.1 is below its own three-year average of 3.4, and the dividend yield exceeds the fair level of 22.5%.

Key takeaways

— Q3 revenue grew 11.3% year on year, but the pace decelerated from 20.7% a year earlier

— EBITDA and net profit for Q3 were not disclosed, so the margin for the reported period cannot be assessed

— Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached RUB 67.9 bn on revenue of RUB 5,029.5 bn

— Dividends paid over the last year were RUB 613 per share, a 26.2% yield versus the 22.5% we consider fair

— Our estimate for the current financial year's dividend is RUB 239.16 per share, or a 10.2% yield on the current price

— Leverage on the latest balance sheet is 0.87 net debt to LTM EBITDA, a moderate level

— EV/EBITDA of 3.1 is below its own three-year average of 3.4, and the portal model implies 43% upside to fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Q3 revenue grew 11.3% year on year, but the pace decelerated from 20.7% a year earlier

Q3 2026 revenue reached RUB 1,311.0 bn, up 11.3% from the same quarter a year earlier. This is a deceleration from the 20.7% growth in Q1 2025 and from 11.3% in Q1 2026. The slowdown in revenue growth has been observed since early 2025.

Over the trailing twelve months, revenue amounted to RUB 5,029.5 bn, reflecting the scale of the business. The company did not disclose which factors drove the slowdown in Q3. Without additional data, one can only note that growth remains in double digits but is decelerating.

For an investor, it is important that the revenue slowdown is not accompanied by disclosed quarterly margins. This limits the assessment of operating efficiency in the reported period.

EBITDA and net profit for Q3 were not disclosed, so the margin for the reported period cannot be assessed

In the reported quarter, the company did not disclose EBITDA or net profit. This prevents an assessment of margin dynamics for Q3 2026. In Q1 2026, EBITDA was RUB 64.3 bn, operating profit RUB 56.7 bn, and net profit RUB 13.3 bn.

The absence of Q3 data creates uncertainty for profitability assessment. An investor can rely only on trailing twelve-month figures: net profit of RUB 67.9 bn and EBITDA of RUB 263.6 bn.

Without quarterly data, one cannot judge whether margins held at prior levels or changed. This limits the analysis but does not overturn the overall picture of a profitable business.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached RUB 67.9 bn on revenue of RUB 5,029.5 bn

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached RUB 67.9 bn on revenue of RUB 5,029.5 bn. The net margin is about 1.3%, a low figure typical of high-turnover retail.

LTM EBITDA reached RUB 263.6 bn, giving an EBITDA margin of about 5.2%. Operating profit in Q1 2026 was RUB 56.7 bn but was not disclosed for Q3.

LTM profit is the base for dividend calculations and multiple valuation. The LTM P/E of 8.5 indicates a low market valuation of earnings.

Dividends paid over the last year were RUB 613 per share, a 26.2% yield versus the 22.5% we consider fair

Over the last twelve months, the company paid RUB 613 per share. At the current price, this gives a dividend yield of 26.2%. We consider a 22.5% yield fair for this name, so the current payout exceeds our benchmark.

The payout history shows growth: RUB 648 per share was paid in 2025 with an 18.8% yield at the ex-date price, and RUB 613 in 2026 with a 29.0% yield. The lower absolute payout in 2026 is offset by the share price decline, which raised the yield.

The payout ratio is 0.86 of profit. This is a high level that supports the yield but limits room for growth without higher profit.

Our estimate for the current financial year's dividend is RUB 239.16 per share, or a 10.2% yield on the current price

We estimate the dividend for the current financial year at RUB 239.16 per share. This is our own calculation based on LTM profit and a payout ratio of 0.864. At the current price, this implies a 10.2% yield.

The estimate is well below actual payouts over the last year. This is because the calculation relies on LTM profit rather than peak profit from prior periods. The board decides on the payout; our estimate is not a guarantee.

Key risks to the payout size are lower profit and possible changes to dividend policy. With a payout ratio of 0.86, any decline in profit directly reduces the dividend.

Leverage on the latest balance sheet is 0.87 net debt to LTM EBITDA, a moderate level

Net debt on the latest balance sheet is RUB 228.5 bn. The ratio of net debt to LTM EBITDA is 0.87. This is a moderate level for a retailer and leaves room for manoeuvre.

We do not have an earlier value for this ratio, so we cannot judge its direction of change. The level of 0.87 by itself does not create a debt burden that threatens dividends.

Interest expenses are not disclosed in the provided data, but with the key rate at 14.0%, debt servicing remains a significant factor for profit. However, the current debt level does not look critical.

EV/EBITDA of 3.1 is below its own three-year average of 3.4, and the portal model implies 43% upside to fair value

The LTM EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.1, which is 11% below its own three-year average of 3.4. This indicates the share trades cheaper than its historical valuation on this multiple.

According to the portal model, which compares EBITDA growth with the target multiple, the upside to fair value is 43%. This is our own estimate, not a market consensus or a target price.

The LTM P/E of 8.5 also points to a low valuation of earnings. The combination of low multiples and a high dividend yield makes the share attractive for income-oriented investors.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is maintained double-digit revenue growth and moderate leverage of 0.87. The weak side is the absence of quarterly profit data and decelerating growth. The dividend yield of 26.2% exceeds the fair level of 22.5%, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.1 is below its own history. Verdict: the share is attractive at the current price, but the key question for a holder is whether profit will remain sufficient for payouts.

Inkab Holding reported H1 2026 results: revenue fell 15.9% year on year to RUB 2,120.0 mn, but EBITDA rose 57.1% to RUB 699.0 mn and net profit reached RUB 301.0 mn against a loss a year earlier. The EBITDA margin reached 33.0% versus 17.7%, the net margin 14.2% versus minus 8.9%, and leverage at 1.02x LTM EBITDA remains moderate. With P/E LTM at 10.9 and the portal model implying 46% upside, the share looks attractive, although the durability of the new margin against falling revenue is the main question for the story.

Key takeaways

— Revenue fell 15.9% but EBITDA rose 57.1% – margin did all the work

— EBITDA margin of 33.0% versus 17.7% a year earlier – doubling on lower sales volume

— Net profit of RUB 301.0 mn against a loss a year earlier – margin 14.2% instead of minus 8.9%

— Net debt fell from RUB 3.8 bn at end-2025 to RUB 1.6 bn on 30 June 2026

— Leverage at 1.02x LTM EBITDA – debt is serviced with headroom

— P/E LTM 10.9 and EV/EBITDA LTM 6.4 – valuation does not look stretched

— The portal model implies 46% upside to the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue fell 15.9% but EBITDA rose 57.1% – margin did all the work

In H1 2026 Inkab Holding's revenue was RUB 2,120.0 mn, 15.9% below the same period a year earlier. Lower sales in fibre-optic cable coincided with a sharp improvement in profitability: EBITDA rose 57.1% to RUB 699.0 mn.

This gap means the company sold less but earned substantially more per unit. Operating profit was RUB 607.0 mn on revenue of RUB 2,120.0 mn – about 28.6% of revenue, confirming a shift towards higher-margin orders or a reduction in low-margin deliveries.

For a holder, the important point is that profit growth was not accompanied by rising debt: net debt fell instead. The question is how durable the new sales mix is and whether the revenue decline reflects a one-off cut in less profitable contracts.

EBITDA margin of 33.0% versus 17.7% a year earlier – doubling on lower sales volume

The EBITDA margin in H1 2026 was 33.0% versus 17.7% a year earlier. The near-doubling on falling revenue indicates that the main contribution came from cost and sales structure rather than volume growth.

With revenue of RUB 2,120.0 mn and EBITDA of RUB 699.0 mn, the company retained a significant share of revenue after variable costs. Operating profit of RUB 607.0 mn shows that depreciation and other operating expenses did not erode this effect.

The durability of the 33.0% margin is the key question for the next report. If it holds near this level as revenue recovers, profit could grow multiple-fold; if it is a one-off from the order mix, the margin will revert to historical levels.

Net profit of RUB 301.0 mn against a loss a year earlier – margin 14.2% instead of minus 8.9%

Net profit in H1 2026 was RUB 301.0 mn at a net margin of 14.2%. A year earlier the company posted a loss at a margin of minus 8.9%, so the result reversed within a single year.

The gap between operating profit of RUB 607.0 mn and net profit of RUB 301.0 mn – about RUB 306.0 mn – covers interest, taxes and other items. This means debt service is still visible in the income statement but no longer overwhelms the operating result.

A net margin of 14.2% on revenue of RUB 2,120.0 mn is the level that, if the EBITDA margin holds, supports sustainable profit and possibly dividends in future, although the current dividend policy is not disclosed in the facts.

Net debt fell from RUB 3.8 bn at end-2025 to RUB 1.6 bn on 30 June 2026

Net debt on 30 June 2026 was RUB 1.6 bn versus RUB 3.8 bn on 31 December 2025 – a reduction of RUB 2.1 bn. Over twelve months, from 30 June 2025, debt fell from RUB 3.0 bn to RUB 1.6 bn, a reduction of RUB 1.4 bn.

Debt reduction alongside EBITDA growth means the company directed part of its earnings to repay obligations. This confirms the quality of profit: it did not get stuck in working capital or capex but reached the balance sheet.

Leverage at 1.02x LTM EBITDA is a moderate level that leaves room for manoeuvre. At such leverage interest expenses should not consume a significant share of operating profit, as the gap between operating and net profit shows.

Leverage at 1.02x LTM EBITDA – debt is serviced with headroom

The ratio of net debt to LTM EBITDA is 1.02. This is a level at which the company can service debt from current cash flow without strain.

For comparison: with LTM EBITDA of RUB 1,612.8 mn and net debt of RUB 1,640.0 mn, annual EBITDA almost fully covers the debt. This means that even if EBITDA falls by a third, leverage would remain below 1.5x, typically considered comfortable.

Low leverage matters against falling revenue: if sales continue to decline, the company has time to adjust without risking covenant breaches. However, the facts do not disclose covenant terms, so this remains a general judgement.

P/E LTM 10.9 and EV/EBITDA LTM 6.4 – valuation does not look stretched

With a market capitalisation of RUB 6,600.0 mn and LTM profit of RUB 605.0 mn, the P/E LTM is 10.9. EV/EBITDA LTM is 6.4 on LTM EBITDA of RUB 1,612.8 mn.

These multiples do not look high for a company that has just doubled its margin and reduced debt. However, they cannot be compared with its own three-year history: the facts contain no averages for prior periods.

The portal model implies 46% upside to the current price. This is our own model, not a market consensus, and it relies on EBITDA growth and a target multiple. At current multiples the market appears not to price in the durability of the new margin.

The portal model implies 46% upside to the current price

On the portal's model, the fair value of an Inkab Holding share is 46% above the current market price. The model links EBITDA growth to a target multiple and compares the result with the market capitalisation of RUB 6,600.0 mn.

This upside does not come from a re-rating of the multiple but from EBITDA growth: over the last twelve months the figure was RUB 1,612.8 mn, which at EV/EBITDA of 6.4 implies an enterprise value of about RUB 10.3 bn against the current market capitalisation of RUB 6.6 bn.

This is our estimate, not a market consensus. It materialises if the margin holds and revenue stops falling. If the margin reverts to 17.7%, LTM EBITDA will shrink and the upside will disappear.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong side of the report is the profit reversal: net profit of RUB 301.0 mn against a loss a year earlier, an EBITDA margin of 33.0% versus 17.7%, all while debt fell from RUB 3.8 bn to RUB 1.6 bn over six months. However, profit growth on a 15.9% revenue decline is a bet on the durability of the new margin, not on business growth. The P/E LTM of 10.9 and EV/EBITDA LTM of 6.4 do not look stretched, and the portal model implies 46% upside, but realising that upside depends on whether the margin holds in the next report. The verdict is attractive: the combination of low leverage, a doubled margin and a moderate multiple outweighs the risk of the margin reverting to historical levels.

On 25 November NMTP reported results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue fell 32.3% year on year to RUB 11,944 mn, EBITDA – by 49.0% to RUB 5,613 mn, net profit – by 47.2% to RUB 5,426 mn. The EBITDA margin compressed to 47.0% from 62.4%, but the company remains in a net cash position of RUB 5,379 mn and pays generous dividends. At the current price the stock looks rather attractive: EV/EBITDA of 2.9 is below its own three-year average of 3.8, and the dividend yield of 16.3% is well above the 10.5% we consider fair for the name.

Key takeaways

— Revenue collapsed 32.3% year on year in Q3 after a 5.3% rise in Q2 – the transshipment portfolio failed to hold last year's level

— EBITDA fell twice as fast as revenue – the margin dropped to 47.0% from 62.4%, and each tonne of cargo now brings noticeably less operating profit

— Net profit fell 47.2% but remained above operating profit – items below the operating line supported it in the reported quarter

— The company sits on net cash of RUB 5,379 mn with negative net debt and EV/EBITDA of 2.9 – the market values it below its own three-year average of 3.8

— Dividends remain the main argument: RUB 1.1448 per share paid over the last 12 months with a 16.3% yield, and we estimate RUB 1.05 per share for the current year

— Operating cash flow for the quarter was RUB 2,592 mn – it covers capital expenditure but leaves no cushion for higher payouts

— On our fair-value model the stock trades 23% above its estimated fair value – upside is exhausted, and it is worth holding for dividends, not for re-rating

Attractiveness

Key figures, RUB bn

Revenue collapsed 32.3% year on year in Q3 after a 5.3% rise in Q2 – the transshipment portfolio failed to hold last year's level

In the third quarter of 2026 NMTP's revenue amounted to RUB 11,944 mn, 32.3% below the same quarter a year earlier. This is a sharp deceleration after 5.3% growth in the second quarter: the top-line dynamic reversed from a slight plus to a deep minus.

A revenue decline of this magnitude means that cargo turnover and tariffs did not offset the lost volumes. The company did not disclose a line-by-line breakdown in the facts, so it is impossible to name the segment that fell most. One thing is clear: the quarter was a failure compared with last year's level, when revenue was RUB 17,632 mn.

EBITDA fell twice as fast as revenue – the margin dropped to 47.0% from 62.4%, and each tonne of cargo now brings noticeably less operating profit

EBITDA in the third quarter was RUB 5,613 mn, down 49.0% year on year – faster than revenue, which fell 32.3%. Operating profit declined to RUB 4,002 mn, and that fall was deeper than the top line's.

The EBITDA margin compressed to 47.0% from 62.4% a year earlier, the net margin – to 45.4% from 58.2%. This gap suggests that fixed costs did not adjust quickly enough to the smaller transshipment volume. Each rouble of revenue now brings almost half as much operating profit as a year ago.

Net profit fell 47.2% but remained above operating profit – items below the operating line supported it in the reported quarter

Net profit for the third quarter was RUB 5,426 mn against RUB 10,268 mn a year earlier, a decline of 47.2%. At the same time profit exceeded operating profit, which was RUB 4,002 mn. The difference of RUB 1,424 mn came from items below the operating line – likely interest on the cash position and other income, but the exact composition is not disclosed in the facts.

For the investor it matters that net profit remains positive and exceeds operating profit. This means that even in a weak quarter the company generates profit sufficient to support the dividend base. However, the sustainability of this support depends on how one-off or recurring the income below the operating line is.

The company sits on net cash of RUB 5,379 mn with negative net debt and EV/EBITDA of 2.9 – the market values it below its own three-year average of 3.8

Net debt as of 30 September 2026 was minus RUB 5,379 mn, meaning the company has a net cash position. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months is minus 0.13. This is a level, not a direction: it cannot be compared with past values, but the net cash position itself removes debt pressure.

The EV/EBITDA multiple over the last twelve months is 2.9, 24% below its own three-year average of 3.8. The stock trades cheaper than usual on this multiple. P/E over the last twelve months is 3.6 – a low level reflecting both the weakness of profit and general undervaluation.

On our fair-value model, which compares EBITDA growth with the target multiple, the stock trades 23% above its estimated fair value. This is our own calculation, not a market consensus. It suggests that the current price already prices in a recovery, and one should not count on re-rating upwards.

Dividends remain the main argument: RUB 1.1448 per share paid over the last 12 months with a 16.3% yield, and we estimate RUB 1.05 per share for the current year

Over the last twelve months NMTP paid RUB 1.1448 per share, which at the current price gives a yield of 16.3%. In calendar 2026, RUB 1.14 per share has already been paid, and no further payouts are planned for this year. This is a generous stream: the yield is more than double the key rate of 14.0%.

Our estimate of the payout for the current financial year, to be paid next year, is RUB 1.05 per share, corresponding to 15.0% on the current price. This is our calculation: we take net profit over the last twelve months, multiply by the share of profit paid out last year (0.54), and divide by the number of shares. The board decides, and the actual payout may differ.

The yield history shows that the current level is not anomalous: in 2025 the yield at the ex-date was 10.5%, in 2026 – 13.3%. We consider a yield of 10.5% fair for this name. The current yield of 16.3% is above both the fair and historical levels, which compensates for the weakness of profit.

A further fall in revenue and profit, as well as rising capital expenditure, could reduce the payout. Capital expenditure is not disclosed for the third quarter, but in the second quarter it was RUB 7,689 mn – a significant burden. If profit continues to decline, the dividend base will narrow, and the board may revise the payout ratio.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was RUB 2,592 mn – it covers capital expenditure but leaves no cushion for higher payouts

Operating cash flow in the third quarter was RUB 2,592 mn against RUB 7,435 mn a year earlier. The more than twofold decline reflects lower revenue and profit. Over the last twelve months the flow was RUB 31,990 mn – a solid base, but the quarterly dynamic shows that the margin of safety is shrinking.

Capital expenditure is not disclosed for the reported quarter, but in the second quarter it was RUB 7,689 mn, and in the first – RUB 5,419 mn. With quarterly flow of RUB 2,592 mn, the company does not cover such investment from current flow and is spending its accumulated cash. The net cash position of RUB 5,379 mn still allows this, but the cushion is not endless.

For dividends this means that payouts are financed not only by flow but also by cash balances. If operating flow does not recover and capital expenditure remains high, the dividend may be cut. For now the company pays more than it earns in the quarter – a warning signal for the sustainability of payouts.

On our fair-value model the stock trades 23% above its estimated fair value – upside is exhausted, and it is worth holding for dividends, not for re-rating

Our fair-value model, which compares EBITDA growth with the target multiple, shows that the stock trades 23% above its estimated fair value. This is our own calculation, not a market consensus. It suggests that the current price already prices in a recovery of profit, and one should not count on re-rating upwards.

At the same time, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.9 is 24% below its own three-year average of 3.8. This indicates that the stock is cheaper than usual on this multiple. The discrepancy with the model is explained by the fact that the model takes into account not only the current multiple but also the EBITDA dynamic, which was weak in the third quarter.

For the investor this means that the main return will come from dividends, not from share price growth. A yield of 16.3% against the fair 10.5% is a weighty argument in favour of holding the stock. But if profit continues to fall, the dividend base will narrow, and then the current price will not look so low.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Dividend per share, ₽, and yield at the ex-date

Bottom line

The strong side of the report remains financial stability: a net cash position of RUB 5,379 mn and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.9 below its own three-year average of 3.8. However, revenue fell 32.3%, EBITDA – by 49.0%, and the margin compressed to 47.0% from 62.4%. The dividend yield of 16.3% against the fair 10.5% is the main argument in favour of the stock, but operating flow of RUB 2,592 mn does not cover capital expenditure. On our fair-value model the stock trades 23% above its estimated fair value, so it is worth holding for dividends, not for share price growth.

This season's defining split is not between oil and tech but between companies riding volume and price upside and those still digesting the 2024-2025 cost shock. Mining and electricity delivered the widest spread: the mining median rose 30.1% year over year while metallurgy fell 10.8%, a 41-point gap. Construction and chemicals also contracted, with medians of -4.5% and -4.7%. The market is rewarding volume and pricing power and punishing anything tied to domestic capex or export tariffs.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Gold and power grids delivered the cleanest upside

The mining median of +30.1% is not a single-name fluke. Seligdar posted revenue +46.5%, EBITDA +145.6% and net profit +257.3%, while Yuzhuralzoloto grew revenue +90.5% and EBITDA +197.2%. Even Nornickel, the diversified giant, lifted revenue +12.6% and net profit +108.4%. In electricity, IDGC South was the standout with revenue +150.0%, EBITDA +233.6% and net profit +425.4%, and Rushydro added revenue +18.9% with net profit +90.1%.

The breadth matters as much as the headline. Six of the seven IDGC subsidiaries reported double-digit revenue growth, and Rosseti Moscow Region grew revenue +22.2% with net profit +46.5%. This is a sector where regulated tariffs and volume recovery are finally flowing through to the bottom line.

Steel and construction are the season's warning sign

Metallurgy's -10.8% median is ugly across the board. Severstal saw revenue -10.1%, EBITDA -27.9% and net profit -61.2%; NLMK reported revenue -11.6% and net profit -54.3%; TMK was the worst with revenue -36.9% and EBITDA -78.0%. Construction is no better: Samolet's revenue fell 31.3% and EBITDA 39.9%, while PIK declined 11.6% in revenue with net profit down 54.1%. These are not one-off misses; they are a capex and demand cycle turning down.

The plot twist: Lukoil's profit surge is the outlier nobody priced

Oil and gas as a sector grew just 3.5% in revenue, but Lukoil accelerated from an unspecified prior period to revenue +8.0%, EBITDA +93.3% and net profit +387.3%. That is a genuine surprise in a sector where Gazprom's net profit fell 9.8% and Rosneft's dropped 18.4%. The divergence suggests Lukoil's downstream and trading mix is doing heavy lifting while peers are squeezed by export economics.

Cheap for growth: Sberbank and Sovcombank screen as value traps or bargains

Sberbank trades at 3.5x earnings while growing revenue 22.5% and net profit 18.6%. Sovcombank is even cheaper at 2.9x P/E with revenue +70.4% and net profit +158.2%. Both look mispriced if growth holds. At the other extreme, Ozon trades at 35.9x earnings with revenue +47.8% but EBITDA -181.0% and net profit -222.6% — priced for perfection in a business still burning cash. Diasoft at 23.0x P/E with revenue -2.8% and net profit -77.3% is expensive for the wrong reason.

Income: FGC UES and Inter RAO offer yield with growth

FGC UES looks like the income play of the season: P/E 0.5x, EV/EBITDA 1.7x, with revenue +16.3%, EBITDA +28.5% and net profit +50.2%. Inter RAO at P/E 1.7x and EV/EBITDA 0.3x is even cheaper on cash flow, though its net profit fell 17.2%. For a value investor, these are the names where the market is paying you to wait.

The long view belongs to ArenaData and Positive: three-year revenue CAGRs of +52.0% and +30.9% respectively, yet both trade at single-digit EV/EBITDA multiples (5.3x and 6.2x). If the IT cycle holds, these are the compounders hiding in plain sight. Watch the next two quarters for whether the growth deceleration in some IT names (Head Hunter at 0.0% revenue) spreads — that is the key risk to the value case.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)