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Nornickel (GMKN) RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
Profit growing (+15%)Revenue declining (-7%)No dividends currently

Sector: Mining

RU_GMKN

Price chart

122.34 RUBDay 0.05%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
122.34 RUB · 0.05%
Market cap
1870.1 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
12.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
49.9%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
6.7x
3y avg: 10.3x
P/B (FY)
2.7x
P/E (ann.)
6.1x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
5.3x
3y avg: 6.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
4.7x

Cash return

Dividend yield
FCF yield (LTM)
16.6%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
2 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK635.6
y/y 12.6%
235.0
y/y 69.5%
58.9
y/y 2.7%
293.9
y/y 49.9%
153.3
y/y 108.4%
255.0-107.12601.6
y/y 6.8%
1019.3
y/y 30.2%
32.1%911.2Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK539.5
y/y -20.7%
177.3
y/y -15.0%
55.8
y/y -11.0%
233.1
y/y -14.1%
124.6
y/y 28.5%
267.0-113.62458.3
y/y 4.3%
890.0
y/y 27.3%
23.7%904.4Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK564.6
y/y 10.9%
138.6
y/y 6.3%
57.4
y/y 16.2%
196.0
y/y 9.0%
73.5
y/y -2.3%
244.1-97.22436.3
y/y 11.4%
782.9
y/y 23.6%
19.8%819.5Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK680.5
y/y -14.4%
208.7
y/y -31.4%
62.7
y/y -2.6%
271.4
y/y -26.3%
97.0
y/y -47.8%
300.8-143.72355.9
y/y 10.6%
699.3
y/y 21.0%
25.8%866.0Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK509.0
y/y -7.9%
130.5
y/y -39.1%
49.4
y/y 10.7%
179.9
y/y -30.5%
75.3
y/y -8.9%
151.9-87.62186.4
y/y 6.2%
633.5
y/y 9.5%
24.9%860.2Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK795.2
y/y
304.0
y/y
64.4
y/y
368.4
y/y
185.9
y/y
379.3-171.02130.7
y/y
577.9
y/y
46.4%1023.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK552.9
y/y
214.3
y/y
44.6
y/y
259.0
y/y
82.6
y/y
265.5-113.32058.1
y/y
578.3
y/y
810.2Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)309 558
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)736 584
− Cash & equivalents226 617
Net debt819 525

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

0200 000400 000600 000800 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-50%-25%0%25%50%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

0100 000200 000300 000400 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0250 000500 000750 0001 000 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 2.40x of reported net profit; after capex, 1.28x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.33x0.98x2.40x2.63x2.58x
accruals, % of assets-9.6%0.5%-17.7%-11.9%-12.7%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.36x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.1x · capex 2.6x of depreciation · dividends 70% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNickel
тыс. т
Copper
тыс. т
Palladium
koz
Platinum
koz
FY 2025-12198.50
−3.2%
425.30
−1.8%
2 725
−1.3%
667
+0.0%
FY 2024-122054332 762667

Норникель, итоги производственной деятельности за 2025 г. (nornickel.ru, 28 янв. 2026): никель 198,5 тыс. т, медь 425,3 тыс. т, палладий 2 725 koz, платина 667 koz; 2024 г. — данные предыдущего релиза (Ni 205 / Cu 433 / Pd 2 762 / Pt 667).

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Nickel & PGM

Annual production
198.50 kt
2025

Production, kt

20920232052024198.502025

Production

YearProduction, kt
2025198.50
−3.2%
2024205
−1.9%
2023209

Nornickel consolidated production results FY2025 (nornickel.com, 28 Jan 2026): nickel 198.5 kt (198,521 t, -3% YoY, within 196-204 kt guidance), palladium 2.725 Moz. FY2024 nickel 205 kt. Metal-content reserves not disclosed in comparable form.

Key-commodity price — Palladium

Current 1 342spot vs LTM +14%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 84 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.07 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +62% · spot +90% · 3-yr +34%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.10 trn RUB
EBITDA429.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)675.0 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.27 (+27%)
= Spot revenue1.40 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.12 (+12%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.24 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs708.7 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA695.9 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA529.9 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2612.9 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))612.9 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)6.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA4.14 trn RUB
Net debt904.4 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt3.23 trn RUB
Current market cap1.99 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +62%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Palladium53%1 342.501 174.67+14%+23%+11%
Nickel22%16 837.6315 373.28+10%+18%+21%
Copper20%14 642.2310 804.34+36%+46%+8%
Platinum5%1 737.001 301.45+33%+43%+8%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth -7% vs -12% the year before — a +4.6 pp move. 3-year CAGR +2%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +30% · 2024 -12% · 2025 -7%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~2.7 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)278 bn RUB
Payout ratio78%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.1x)300 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)915.33 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
= Fair dividend yield12.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price123 ₽
Forecast dividend yield
Fair price (dividend-based)0.000 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
2023915.33 ₽
20222689.39 ₽
20211021.22 ₽
20201180.55 ₽
20192280.54 ₽
20181384.00 ₽
2017670.30 ₽
2016674.39 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2023 q42023-12-25915.33 ₽
2022 q22022-06-101166.22 ₽
2022 q12022-01-121523.17 ₽
2021 q22021-05-281021.22 ₽
2020 q42020-12-22623.35 ₽
2020 q22020-05-21557.20 ₽
2019 q42019-12-251488.02 ₽
2019 q22019-06-19792.52 ₽
2018 q32018-09-271384.00 ₽
2017 q42017-10-17224.20 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 41% buy — sellers5d: 44% buy — sellers20d: 51% buy — balanced

No iceberg levels detected last session.
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 0 bid / 2 ask; largest — ask 249 lots ×253 appearances across 90 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): ask ×337.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
12.0841%0/00/225,849
11.0842%0/01/221,170
10.0845%0/02/319,759
07.0844%1/00/322,917
06.0846%0/13/532,915

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 3 (2 positive), last 30 days: 8 (3 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 23 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

27.07.26Material event События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
30.06.26AGM / Board Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» 30 июня 2026 года было решено не распределять прибыль и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 2025 года. Председателю Совета директоров будет выплачиваться вознаграждение в размере 500 тыс. долларов США в год, а членам Ревизионной комиссии — 1,8 млн. руб. в год. Также одобрены назначения аудиторских организаций для проверки отчетности за 2026 год.
25.05.26AGM / Board Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
На заседании совета директоров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» 25 мая 2026 года было принято решение не выплачивать дивиденды по обыкновенным акциям по результатам 2025 года. Кворум для заседания составил 13 членов совета директоров.
08.06.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD
05 июня 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,998 млн. облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Оплата производилась в рублях по курсу доллара США, установленному на дату приобретения.
24.03.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD
23 марта 2026 года Эмитентом, ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель», приобретены 2,77 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-08-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости. Дополнительно был выплачен накопленный купонный доход владельцам облигаций.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 10 of 17 funds, ≈2,3 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 7, entered top-10 — 2.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ7.75%15 млн ₽+0.81 pp30.06.2026
TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акцииТ-Капитал5.91%30 млн ₽+0.53 pp30.06.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Первая5.05%8 млн ₽+0.57 pp30.06.2026
BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынкаБрокеркредитсервис4.78%15 млн ₽30.06.2026
SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акцийПервая4.27%835 млн ₽+0.54 pp30.06.2026
TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржиТ-Капитал4.27%570 млн ₽+0.56 pp30.06.2026
EQMX Индекс МосБиржиВИМ Инвестиции4.24%516 млн ₽30.06.2026
SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестиции (new)Первая4.07%6 млн ₽+4.07 pp30.06.2026
SCFT Технологии будущего (new)Доверительная3.99%0 млн ₽+3.99 pp30.06.2026
TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рубляхТ-Капитал1.50%276 млн ₽30.06.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=564

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Nornickel (GMKN) — from primary filings.

GMKN (MMC Norilsk Nickel) is a Russian mining and metallurgical company that primarily extracts and refines nickel, palladium, copper, and platinum from deposits in the Taimyr and Kola Peninsulas.

Frequently asked questions

What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/E ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/E of 6.7x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s EV/EBITDA?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at 5.3x EV/EBITDA.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/B ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/B of 2.7x.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s ROE is 32.1%.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s market capitalization?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s market cap is 1870.1 bn RUB.

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