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Nornickel (GMKN) RUB

Nornickel is the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper, mining and smelting in the Norilsk area and on the Kola Peninsula.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+13% y/y, H1 2026)✓Profit growing (+108% y/y, H1 2026)✓Margins improving (35%→46%, H1 2026)

Sector: Mining

RU_GMKN

Price chart

114.92 RUBDay 0.00%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
114.92 RUB · 0.00%
Market cap
1756.7 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
12.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
49.9%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
6.3x
3y avg: 10.3x
P/B (FY)
2.5x
P/E (ann.)
5.7x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
5.1x
3y avg: 6.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
4.5x

Cash return

Dividend yield
1.6%
FCF yield (LTM)
17.7%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+2.8%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
1.9 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK635.6
y/y 12.6%
235.0
y/y 69.5%
58.9
y/y 2.7%
293.9
y/y 49.9%
153.3
y/y 108.4%
255.0-107.12601.6
y/y 6.8%
1019.3
y/y 30.2%
32.1%911.2Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK539.5
y/y -20.7%
177.3
y/y -15.0%
55.8
y/y -11.0%
233.1
y/y -14.1%
124.6
y/y 28.5%
267.0-113.62458.3
y/y 4.3%
890.0
y/y 27.3%
23.7%904.4Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK564.6
y/y 10.9%
138.6
y/y 6.3%
57.4
y/y 16.2%
196.0
y/y 9.0%
73.5
y/y -2.3%
244.1-97.22436.3
y/y 11.4%
782.9
y/y 23.6%
19.8%819.5Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK680.5
y/y -14.4%
208.7
y/y -31.4%
62.7
y/y -2.6%
271.4
y/y -26.3%
97.0
y/y -47.8%
300.8-143.72355.9
y/y 10.6%
699.3
y/y 21.0%
25.8%866.0Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK509.0
y/y -7.9%
130.5
y/y -39.1%
49.4
y/y 10.7%
179.9
y/y -30.5%
75.3
y/y -8.9%
151.9-87.62186.4
y/y 6.2%
633.5
y/y 9.5%
24.9%860.2Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK795.2
y/y —
304.0
y/y —
64.4
y/y —
368.4
y/y —
185.9
y/y —
379.3-171.02130.7
y/y —
577.9
y/y —
46.4%1023.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK552.9
y/y —
214.3
y/y —
44.6
y/y —
259.0
y/y —
82.6
y/y —
265.5-113.32058.1
y/y —
578.3
y/y —
—810.2Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2025-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)309 558
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)736 584
− Cash & equivalents226 617
Net debt819 525

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.6x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

0200 000400 000600 000800 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-50%-25%0%25%50%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)

0100 000200 000300 000400 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0250 000500 000750 0001 000 0001 250 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 2.40x of reported net profit; after capex, 1.28x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.33x0.98x2.40x2.63x2.58x
accruals, % of assets-9.6%0.5%-17.7%-11.9%-12.7%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.88x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.1x · capex 2.6x of depreciation · dividends 70% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNickel
тыс. т		Copper
тыс. т		Palladium
koz		Platinum
koz
H1 2026-06852031 199281
FY 2025-12198.50
−3.2%		425.30
−1.8%		2 725
−1.3%		667
+0.0%
FY 2024-122054332 762667

Норникель, итоги производственной деятельности за 2025 г. (nornickel.ru, 28 янв. 2026): никель 198,5 тыс. т, медь 425,3 тыс. т, палладий 2 725 koz, платина 667 koz; 2024 г. — данные предыдущего релиза (Ni 205 / Cu 433 / Pd 2 762 / Pt 667). | H1 2026 (03.09.2026): никель 85 тыс т (-2% г/г), медь 203 (-5%), палладий 1 199 koz (-14%), платина 281 koz (-16%) — операц. релиз Норникеля 1П2026, подтв. Interfax/Fomag/brokerkf.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Nickel & PGM

Proved reserves
9 602 kt
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
48.4 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
198.50 kt
2025

Production, kt

20920232052024198.502025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, kt
20259 602

Production

YearProduction, kt
2025198.50
−3.2%
2024205
−1.9%
2023209

Nornickel consolidated production results FY2025 (nornickel.com, 28 Jan 2026): nickel 198.5 kt (198,521 t, -3% YoY, within 196-204 kt guidance), palladium 2.725 Moz. FY2024 nickel 205 kt. Reserves: Polar Division proved+probable ore 1,481 Mt at 0.65% Ni = 9,602 kt contained nickel at 1 Jan 2026 (JORC, SRK; Annual Report 2025 pp. 64-65), in situ before recovery.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −20% (factor 0.80)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Copper

Current 14 486spot vs LTM +18%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 82 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.04 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +3% · spot +15% · 3-yr -9%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue1.18 trn RUB
EBITDA527.0 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)648.1 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.03 (+3%)
= Spot revenue1.20 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×0.96 (-4%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.13 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs680.5 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA524.4 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA448.6 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2486.5 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))486.5 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)5.6x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA2.73 trn RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)911.2 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt1.82 trn RUB
Current market cap1.77 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +3%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Copper34%14 486.4612 225.59+18%+23%-4%
Palladium24%1 085.001 455.07-25%-22%-13%
Nickel22%15 952.2516 464.97-3%+1%+8%
Platinum6%1 643.901 798.50-9%-5%-21%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth -7% vs -12% the year before — a +4.6 pp move. 3-year CAGR +2%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +30% · 2024 -12% · 2025 -7%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 5.1x · 3-year 75th pct 6.6x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Mining. Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDA
Yuzhuralzoloto GroupRussia2.03.7x
PolyusRussia13.13.8x
SeligdarRussia0.55.3x
AlrosaRussia1.95.7x
RusolovoRussia0.117.7x
Group median5.3x
Group average7.2x
This companyRussia21.45.1x

Group median 5.3x; this company 5.1x — a 4% discount.

Group average 7.2x; against the average this company is at a 30% discount. The average sits 38% above the median: Rusolovo (17.7x) skews the group.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +6% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.7x, Russia 3.9x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 4.6x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 4.9x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-21; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -85%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)278 bn RUB
Payout ratio44%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.1x)300 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)1.85 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share1.85 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-10.3 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price116 ₽
Forecast dividend yield1.6%
Fair price (dividend-based)17.62 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 1.85 RUB/sh · 1.6%

Pay yearDividend /sh
20261.85 ₽
20239.15 ₽
202226.89 ₽
202110.21 ₽
202011.81 ₽
201922.81 ₽
201813.84 ₽
20176.70 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2026 q42026-10-091.85 ₽
2023 q42023-12-259.15 ₽
2022 q22022-06-1011.66 ₽
2022 q12022-01-1215.23 ₽
2021 q22021-05-2810.21 ₽
2020 q42020-12-226.23 ₽
2020 q22020-05-215.57 ₽
2019 q42019-12-2514.88 ₽
2019 q22019-06-197.93 ₽
2018 q32018-09-2713.84 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 48% buy — balanced5d: 46% buy — balanced20d: 49% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 0 bid / 1 ask; largest — ask 114.7 (filled ×7.0 of displayed, 15 refills).
No characteristic robot clips detected last session.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
21.1048%0/10/020,673
20.1048%0/00/011,126
19.1049%1/10/027,026
16.1050%0/00/016,100
15.1035%0/00/119,774

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 14 (3 positive, 6 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 25 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

01.10.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На внеочередном собрании акционеров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» было решено выплатить дивиденды в размере 1,85 руб. на акцию по результатам полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 12 октября 2026 года.
26.08.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» рекомендовал выплатить дивиденды в размере 1,85 руб. на акцию по результатам полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, назначена на 12 октября 2026 года.
27.07.26Material event★ ▼ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
21.08.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD
20 августа 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,8 млн. биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-12-USD по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости, а также выплачено накопленный купонный доход. Оплата произведена в рублях по курсу доллара США на дату приобретения.
08.06.26BuybackИнформация об исполнении Эмитентом обязательств по приобретению Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD
05 июня 2026 года ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель» приобрело 4,998 млн. облигаций серии БО-001Р-10-USD по цене 100% от номинальной стоимости, выплачивая накопленный купонный доход. Оплата производилась в рублях по курсу доллара США, установленному на дату приобретения.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 9 of 17 funds, ≈2,5 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 4, entered top-10 — 2.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ8.84%17 млн ₽+1.14 pp31.08.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Первая5.21%7 млн ₽—31.08.2026
BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынкаБрокеркредитсервис4.92%17 млн ₽—31.08.2026
TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржиТ-Капитал4.59%677 млн ₽—31.08.2026
EQMX ВИМ - Индекс МосБиржиВИМ Инвестиции4.58%606 млн ₽—31.08.2026
SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акцийПервая4.57%941 млн ₽+0.51 pp31.08.2026
SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестиции (new)Первая4.08%6 млн ₽+4.08 pp31.08.2026
SCFT Технологии будущего (new)Доверительная3.89%0 млн ₽+3.89 pp31.08.2026
TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рубляхТ-Капитал1.49%271 млн ₽—31.08.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=564

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Nornickel (GMKN) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/E ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/E of 6.3x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s EV/EBITDA?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at 5.1x EV/EBITDA.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s P/B ratio?
Nornickel (GMKN) trades at a P/B of 2.5x.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s dividend yield?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.6%.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s ROE is 32.1%.
What is Nornickel (GMKN)'s market capitalization?
Nornickel (GMKN)'s market cap is 1756.7 bn RUB.

Bonds by this issuer

IssueYTMCouponPrice, %1DVolume today, ₽Avg vol. 20D, ₽Maturity
НорНикБ1P9floatfloat100.80—152K—put 09.2025
НорНикБ1P2floatfloat99.97—5.6M—put 10.2025
НорНикЗ26Д—2.8%98.50-0.96%137.1M48.8M10.2026
НорНик1P1120.2%7%99.13-0.97%1.0M287.1Mput 11.2026
НорНик1P134.6%7.75%100.90+0.00%17K159Kput 01.2027
НорНик1P159.3%7.5%99.20-0.79%430K297Kput 05.2027
НорНик1P169.7%7%97.46+0.00%48K562Kput 12.2027
НорНикБ1P89.8%7.75%97.81-0.95%794.5M132.6Mput 04.2028
НорНик БО9floatfloat100.18-0.02%976K98.5M05.2028
НорНик Б10floatfloat100.12+0.12%637K826Kput 10.2028
НорНикБ1P7floatfloat100.13+0.06%73.0M90.9M02.2029
НорНик1P127.2%8%102.50-1.16%8K166Kput 05.2029
НорНик1P149.6%6.4%93.06-0.27%85.5M56.8M08.2029
НорНик1P107.1%7.5%102.20+0.78%8K80K05.2030
НорНик1P179.1%7.6%96.60-1.13%18.6M24.2M05.2030

Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.

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