Sector: Metals & Steel
RU_NLMK
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | FY 2025 (12M) | OK | 831.4 y/y -15.1% | 75.4 y/y -63.4% | 65.1 y/y 28.5% | 140.5 y/y -45.3% | 63.1 y/y -48.2% | 127.3 | -102.6 | 1130.1 y/y -0.1% | 884.4 y/y 2.9% | 7.2% | -104.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | Q4 2024 (3M) | OK | 461.8 y/y — | 73.5 y/y — | 27.1 y/y — | 100.6 y/y — | 40.2 y/y — | 77.2 | -67.9 | 1130.9 y/y 0.6% | 859.9 y/y -0.5% | 14.8% | -68.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | Q2 2024 (3M) | OK | 517.8 y/y — | 132.8 y/y — | 23.5 y/y — | 156.3 y/y — | 81.6 y/y — | 108.2 | -45.5 | 1027.6 y/y — | 785.1 y/y — | 19.8% | -79.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | FY 2023 (12M) | OK | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | — | 1123.8 y/y — | 863.8 y/y — | 26.1% | -190.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | Q2 2023 (3M) | OK | 254.4 y/y — | 79.5 y/y — | 11.1 y/y — | 90.7 y/y — | 59.4 y/y — | 53.3 | -15.7 | 1041.8 y/y — | 739.1 y/y — | — | -19.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-03-31 | Q1 2023 (3M) | PARTIAL | 189.8 y/y — | 84.2 y/y — | 3.5 y/y — | 87.7 y/y — | 59.4 y/y — | 53.3 | -15.7 | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | 30.5 | Report (PDF) |
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
FCF (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Steel
| Year | Production, Mt |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 14.24 |
NLMK crude steel ~14.24 Mt (worldsteel FY2023). NLMK curtailed operating disclosure after 2022; FY2024/FY2025 volumes NOT officially disclosed (only 1H2025 = 7.1 Mt, -4% YoY reported). worldsteel's repeated 14.24 figure is a carried-forward number, not a fresh disclosure. Figure shown is approximate / 2023.
Current 62 900 ₽/тspot vs LTM +8%
The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the current EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.
Upside (conservative): -6% · spot -6% · 3-yr +51%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (latest FY) | |
| Revenue | 831.4 bln RUB |
| EBITDA | 140.5 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 690.9 bln RUB |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Multiplier — spot | ×1.03 (+3%) |
| = Spot revenue | 856.0 bln RUB |
| Multiplier — 3-yr prices | ×1.15 (+15%) |
| = 3-yr-price revenue | 956.4 bln RUB |
| 3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%) | |
| Cost multiplier | ×1.05 (+5%) |
| = Cash costs | 725.4 bln RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 130.6 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 231.0 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 180.8 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 130.6 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (current) | 2.9x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 374.4 bln RUB |
| Net debt | -104.1 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 478.5 bln RUB |
| Current market cap | 506.8 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -6%
Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.
| Commodity | Revenue share | Spot | LTM avg | $ vs LTM | RUB vs LTM (FX) | RUB 3-yr (FX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC Russia (RUB) | 68% | 62 900.00 | 58 083.52 | +8% | +8% | +16% |
| CRC Russia (RUB) | 32% | 69 550.00 | 75 967.16 | -8% | -8% | +14% |
Dividends suspended (~2.2 yr without a payout)
The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 63 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 72% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage -0.7x) | 25 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 25.43 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 0.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.2% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -2.1 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 12.1% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 62.14 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | — |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 0.000 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25.43 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 41.91 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 20.73 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 22.86 ₽ | |
| 2018 | 19.46 ₽ | |
| 2017 | 12.56 ₽ | |
| 2016 | 6.59 ₽ | |
| 2015 | 4.13 ₽ |
| Period | Ex-date | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 q2 | 2024-05-24 | 25.43 ₽ |
| 2021 q4 | 2021-12-03 | 13.33 ₽ |
| 2021 q3 | 2021-09-03 | 13.62 ₽ |
| 2021 q2 | 2021-06-21 | 14.96 ₽ |
| 2020 q4 | 2020-12-25 | 11.18 ₽ |
| 2020 q3 | 2020-07-09 | 3.21 ₽ |
| 2020 q2 | 2020-06-05 | 3.12 ₽ |
| 2020 q1 | 2020-01-07 | 3.22 ₽ |
| 2019 q4 | 2019-10-08 | 3.68 ₽ |
| 2019 q2 | 2019-06-17 | 13.14 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 48% buy — balanced5d: 51% buy — balanced20d: 50% buy — balanced
No iceberg levels detected last session.
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 3 bid / 5 ask; largest — ask 72 lots ×323 appearances across 93 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×337, ask ×599.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.07 | 48% | 0/0 | 3/5 | 28,556 |
| 22.07 | 55% | 0/0 | 8/8 | 19,957 |
| 21.07 | 53% | 0/2 | 7/9 | 26,873 |
| 20.07 | 54% | 1/1 | 6/5 | 33,760 |
| 17.07 | 45% | 1/0 | 5/2 | 25,487 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
| 28.05.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) 28 мая 2026 года ПАО «НЛМК» проведет годовое собрание акционеров, на котором будет утвержден годовой отчет и финансовая отчетность за 2025 год. Дивиденды по результатам 2025 года не будут выплачены. Также будет избран новый Совет директоров и утвержден Устав в новой редакции. |
| 24.04.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▼ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) |
| 11.02.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора ПАО 'НЛМК' получило кредитный рейтинг 'AAA' с прогнозом 'Стабильный', что указывает на высокую способность погашать долги и низкий риск дефолта. Рейтинг был присвоен 11 февраля 2026 года. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 0 across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 7 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=2509
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of NLMK — from primary filings.
NLMK is a Russian steel producer that operates across the full production chain from iron ore mining to finished steel products, including flat and long steel. The company supplies steel to various industries such as construction, automotive, and machinery.