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Language: EN / RU

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NLMK RUB

NLMK is a vertically integrated steelmaker based at the Novolipetsk plant, with its own iron ore and rolling mills in Russia and abroad, focused on flat steel.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Net cash balance sheet✗Revenue declining (-9% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Profit falling (-33% y/y, Q2 2026)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Metals & Steel

RU_NLMK

Price chart

75.18 RUBDay -1.10%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
75.18 RUB · -1.10%
Market cap
450.6 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-9.1%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-8.8%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
11.6x
3y avg: 7.5x
P/B (FY)
0.5x
P/E (ann.)
7.2x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
3.6x
3y avg: 3.7x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
3.0x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
-1.8%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+1.3%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
653.5 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK199.1
y/y -9.1%
19.3
y/y -18.1%
15.6
y/y 6.2%
34.9
y/y -8.8%
15.6
y/y -33.0%
9.8-15.41121.0
y/y 0.7%
905.8
y/y 4.6%
7.0%-37.1Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK192.5
y/y -18.3%
17.3
y/y -60.4%
16.8
y/y 29.5%
34.1
y/y -39.8%
13.3
y/y -52.8%
33.7-20.71130.1
y/y -0.1%
884.4
y/y 2.9%
7.2%-45.4Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK219.0
y/y -18.1%
23.5
y/y -68.7%
14.7
y/y 25.3%
38.3
y/y -56.0%
23.3
y/y -37.6%
26.1-23.91113.4
y/y 8.3%
865.7
y/y 10.3%
10.8%-13.1Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK235.7
y/y 10.2%
43.7
y/y -11.6%
13.0
y/y 13.4%
56.7
y/y -6.9%
28.2
y/y -43.7%
43.8-41.81130.9
y/y 0.6%
859.9
y/y -0.5%
14.8%-10.1Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK267.6
y/y 5.2%
75.2
y/y -5.5%
11.8
y/y 5.7%
86.9
y/y -4.2%
37.3
y/y -37.1%
54.1-5.31027.6
y/y -1.4%
785.1
y/y 6.2%
18.1%-48.4Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK213.9
y/y —
49.4
y/y —
11.4
y/y —
60.9
y/y —
50.0
y/y —
52.5-3.91123.8
y/y —
863.8
y/y —
26.1%-112.4Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK254.4
y/y —
79.5
y/y —
11.1
y/y —
90.8
y/y —
59.4
y/y —
53.3-15.71041.8
y/y —
739.1
y/y —
—-6.2Report (PDF)
2023-03-31Q1 2023 (3M)PARTIAL289.4
y/y —
84.2
y/y —
3.5
y/y —
87.7
y/y —
45.9
y/y —
53.3-15.7—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—30.5Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)17 691
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)21 978
− Cash & equivalents76 806
Net debt-37 137

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.3x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

0100 000200 000300 0002023 q12023 q22023 q42024 q22024 q42025 q22025 q42026 q2

Year-over-year change

-60%-40%-20%0%20%2023 q12023 q22023 q42024 q22024 q42025 q22025 q42026 q2

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)

-20 000020 00040 00060 0002023 q12023 q22023 q42024 q22024 q42025 q22025 q42026 q2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

-150 000-100 000-50 000050 0002023 q12023 q22023 q42024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.49x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.61x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.89x1.49x1.01x1.52x2.02x
accruals, % of assets4.3%-8.5%-0.1%-5.6%-5.7%
Last twelve months (to H1 2026): 2.44x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA -0.7x · EBIT covers interest 50.7x · capex 1.6x of depreciation · dividends 88% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodCrude steel
mln t		Steel products sold
mln t
H1 2026-066.807.70
FY 2025-1214
−2.1%		13.20
+2.3%
FY 2024-1214.3012.90

НЛМК, операционные результаты за 2025 г. (nlmk.com/ru/ir; Интерфакс/profinansy, апр. 2026): производство стали 14,0 млн т (-2% г/г), продажи металлопродукции 13,2 млн т (+2%). Значения 2024 г. восстановлены из заявленных темпов. | H1 2026 (03.09.2026): выплавка стали 6,8 млн т (-4% г/г), продажи 7,7 — НЛМК ключевые показатели 1П2026, подтв. The Moscow Times/Fomag. НЛМК раскрывает операционку полугодиями.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Steel

Annual production
14.24 Mt
2023

Production

YearProduction, Mt
202314.24

NLMK crude steel ~14.24 Mt (worldsteel FY2023). NLMK curtailed operating disclosure after 2022; FY2024/FY2025 volumes NOT officially disclosed (only 1H2025 = 7.1 Mt, -4% YoY reported). worldsteel's repeated 14.24 figure is a carried-forward number, not a fresh disclosure. Figure shown is approximate / 2023.

Key-commodity price — HRC Russia (RUB)

Current 63 500 ₽/тspot vs LTM +9%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 82 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.04 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +1% · spot +1% · 3-yr +60%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue780.4 bln RUB
EBITDA113.5 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)666.9 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.04 (+4%)
= Spot revenue810.4 bln RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.14 (+14%)
= 3-yr-price revenue891.5 bln RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs700.2 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA110.2 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA191.3 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2150.7 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))110.2 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)3.3x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA368.7 bln RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)-100.5 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt469.2 bln RUB
Current market cap463.1 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +1%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
HRC Russia (RUB)68%63 500.0058 100.70+9%+9%+15%
CRC Russia (RUB)32%70 100.0076 066.64-8%-8%+13%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -15% vs +5% the year before — a -20.1 pp move. 3-year CAGR -3%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +4% · 2024 +5% · 2025 -15%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 3.1x · 3-year 75th pct 3.9x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Metals & Steel. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
Tata SteelIndia22.98.1x1.7x
JSW SteelIndia32.010.9x2.3x
MMKRussia3.12.8x2.8x
Gerdauglobal10.37.0x3.4x
POSCO HoldingsKorea17.17.3x3.9x
Steel Dynamicsglobal36.112.2x5.9x
SeverstalRussia7.26.2x6.2x
Nucor Corporationglobal59.715.6x7.6x
Cleveland-Cliffsglobal7.820.0x9.8x
RusalRussia4.710.6x10.6x
UsiminasBrazil1.726.9x15.2x
TMK (pipe)Russia1.016.5x16.5x
Group median10.8x6.1x
Group average12.0x7.2x
This companyRussia5.63.6x3.6x

Group median 10.8x as traded, 6.1x adjusted; this company 3.6x — a 40% discount.

Group average 12.0x as traded, 7.2x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 49% discount.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +60% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.7x, Russia 3.9x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 4.6x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 4.9x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-21; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~2.4 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)41 bn RUB
Payout ratio72%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage -0.7x)25 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)25.43 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-2.1 pp
= Fair dividend yield11.9%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price77.44 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)—

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Three-year model and IRR withheld

The number is withheld — here is why

First-year profit (80,645) differs from the last reported (38,738) by a factor of 2.08. A one-year step of that size means the base and the forecast rest on different assumptions (interest, one-offs), so dividends and IRR built on it are not anchored in fact — the number is withheld

The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.

base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue780.4 bn816.6 bn816.6 bn816.6 bn
Revenue growth—+5%0%0%
EBITDA113.5 bn98.9 bn74.4 bn49.8 bn
EBITDA margin14.5%12.1%9.1%6.1%
less D&A—000
EBIT—98.9 bn74.4 bn49.8 bn
less net interest-19.2 bn-8.6 bn-5.8 bn-2.9 bn
less tax13.0 bn26.9 bn20.0 bn13.2 bn
Net profit38.7 bn80.6 bn60.1 bn39.5 bn
Capex91.4 bn87.9 bn87.9 bn87.9 bn
Capex to revenue11.7%10.8%10.8%10.8%
Free cash flow3.3 bn
operating cash flow less capex
-7.2 bn-27.8 bn-48.4 bn
Net debt-100.5 bn-69.6 bn-41.8 bn6.6 bn
Net debt / EBITDA-0.9x-0.7x-0.6x0.1x
Dividend per share25.43 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Related-market prices (Steel)
HRC Russia (RUB) 68% → +9%; CRC Russia (RUB) 32% → -8%; FX ×1.044; 30% of costs follow price
EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс		82%+5% · 0% · 0%
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY -13%; acceleration -2.8pp
LTM г/г по отчётности		18%-6% · -0% · +3%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 3.19x (2.56x…4.67x)
No re-rating: min(current 3.2x, three-year median 3.3x). Re-rating to 4.7x on a falling rate is the bull case
Second valuation: discounted cash flow0.000 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
86% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy72% of net profit, capped by cash flow
Dividendssuspended — zero in the model
EBITDA calibration×0.89
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governanceno flags: the dividend has not faded against profit, payouts were not suspended, no audit qualification and no manual penalty — quality multiplier 1.00
Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue610%1.10x83%
EBITDA621%1.13x50%
Net profit661%1.41x0%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 83.24 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 78.28 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 64.34 ₽. Dropped as broken: eninvs DividendPrediction (3.029e-08)

Checks and caveats
  • ✗ First-year profit (80,645) differs from the last reported (38,738) by a factor of 2.08. A one-year step of that size means the base and the forecast rest on different assumptions (interest, one-offs), so dividends and IRR built on it are not anchored in fact — the number is withheld
  • ⚠ Year-3 margin 6% is below the worst year on record (15%), though inside tolerance
  • ⚠ Historical check (6 observations): median EBITDA miss 5.2 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 50% of cases, relative error 21% at bias 1.13x, revenue 10%
  • ⚠ The reporting-period series needed repair: 2 rows discarded as incompatible with the cumulative convention (years 2021, 2022). The database carries quarters labelled as halves and nine-month periods; LTM and year-on-year growth computed on those are wrong, so they are dropped
  • ⚠ Less reaches actual cash than the formula implies: over 3 reported years free cash flow came to 0.79 of 'EBITDA less capex, interest and tax'. The gap is lease principal (IFRS 16 keeps it out of EBITDA but it still has to be paid) and working capital. The forecast cash flow is scaled by this factor — otherwise debt repayment and dividends come out of cash the company never has
  • ✓ Growth sources: market, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR +2%
  • ✓ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA 0.1x
  • ✓ IRR -31%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ One-year value agrees with an independent estimate: Frontier спот-модель (0.82x). Compared with: eninvs Company_Forecast, Frontier спот-модель
  • The price move passes into revenue to the power of 0.51 (общая оценка по нефтяникам), not one for one. The tax part of costs still follows the full price move — mineral tax is levied on price, not revenue.
  • Volume is taken separately, not from revenue momentum — объёмов нет — рост объёма принят нулевым. A commodity producer's revenue is mostly price, so using revenue growth as volume would count the price twice.
  • Commodity prices held at spot; 30% of cash costs follow the output price (mineral tax, energy, freight), the rest follows inflation. FX drifts with the inflation differential (PPP), so USD revenue still grows in roubles at a flat commodity price.
  • The model historically overstated this name's EBITDA by 1.13x (6 observations), so the path is trimmed by 11%.
  • The analyst forecast for this name is in USD while the model runs in RUB — the line-by-line comparison is switched off.

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
202425.43 ₽
202141.91 ₽
202020.73 ₽
201922.86 ₽
201819.46 ₽
201712.56 ₽
20166.59 ₽
20154.13 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2024 q22024-05-2425.43 ₽
2021 q42021-12-0313.33 ₽
2021 q32021-09-0313.62 ₽
2021 q22021-06-2114.96 ₽
2020 q42020-12-2511.18 ₽
2020 q32020-07-093.21 ₽
2020 q22020-06-053.12 ₽
2020 q12020-01-073.22 ₽
2019 q42019-10-083.68 ₽
2019 q22019-06-1713.14 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 41% buy — sellers5d: 48% buy — balanced20d: 49% buy — balanced

No iceberg levels detected last session.
No characteristic robot clips detected last session.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
21.1041%0/00/010,903
20.1047%0/00/05,602
19.1054%0/00/211,192
16.1048%0/00/07,326
15.1051%0/00/09,064

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1 (1 positive), last 30 days: 3 (2 positive, 1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 14 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

28.05.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
28 мая 2026 года ПАО «НЛМК» проведет годовое собрание акционеров, на котором будет утвержден годовой отчет и финансовая отчетность за 2025 год. Дивиденды по результатам 2025 года не будут выплачены. Также будет избран новый Совет директоров и утвержден Устав в новой редакции.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of NLMK — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is NLMK's P/E ratio?
NLMK trades at a P/E of 11.6x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is NLMK's EV/EBITDA?
NLMK trades at 3.6x EV/EBITDA.
What is NLMK's P/B ratio?
NLMK trades at a P/B of 0.5x.
What is NLMK's return on equity (ROE)?
NLMK's ROE is 7.0%.
What is NLMK's market capitalization?
NLMK's market cap is 450.6 bn RUB.

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