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MD Medical (MDMG) RUB

MD Medical Group (Mother and Child) is a private healthcare network of hospitals and clinics across Russia specialising in women's health, fertility, obstetrics and paediatrics, with growing multidisciplinary services.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+29% y/y, H1 2026)✓Low leverage (0.0x EBITDA)✗Margins compressing (30%→28%, H1 2026)

Sector: Healthcare

RU_MDMG

Price chart

1 280.8 RUBDay 0.10%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
1 280.8 RUB · 0.10%
Market cap
96.2 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
28.8%
Δ EBITDA y/y
20.0%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
8.5x
3y avg: 8.6x
P/B (FY)
2.6x
P/E (ann.)
9.0x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
7.1x
3y avg: 7.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
7.3x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.6%
FCF yield (LTM)
2.5%

Value creation

fundamental value/yr, % of market cap
Value created / year
+13.2%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
98.4 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK24.8
y/y 28.8%
5.5
y/y 18.1%
1.5
y/y 27.3%
7.0
y/y 20.0%
5.3
y/y 5.1%
7.1-10.863.7
y/y 35.0%
38.4
y/y 12.8%
28.3%6.3Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK24.2
y/y 39.3%
5.8
y/y 15.8%
1.7
y/y 72.8%
7.5
y/y 23.7%
6.0
y/y 12.9%
7.9-5.249.6
y/y 27.3%
36.7
y/y 19.3%
31.2%0.8Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK19.3
y/y 22.2%
4.7
y/y 13.0%
1.2
y/y 24.3%
5.8
y/y 15.1%
5.1
y/y 3.6%
6.0-7.347.2
y/y 1.6%
34.1
y/y 18.6%
31.2%0.0Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK17.4
y/y 17.5%
5.0
y/y 18.0%
1.0
y/y 2.5%
6.0
y/y 16.3%
5.3
y/y 59060.3%
6.2-1.339.0
y/y -5.7%
30.8
y/y -11.0%
34.2%-4.1Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK15.8
y/y 22.6%
4.1
y/y 25.9%
0.9
y/y 13.7%
5.1
y/y 23.5%
4.9
y/y —
4.9-1.046.4
y/y —
28.7
y/y —
30.9%-12.8Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK14.8
y/y —
4.2
y/y —
0.9
y/y —
5.2
y/y —
0.0
y/y —
5.01.941.3
y/y —
34.6
y/y —
—-8.8Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)PARTIAL12.9
y/y —
3.3
y/y —
0.8
y/y —
4.1
y/y —
0.0
y/y —
4.4-1.9—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—-5.8Evidence

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)845
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)10 025
− Cash & equivalents4 609
Net debt6 261

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 0.4x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

05 00010 00015 00020 00025 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

0%10%20%30%40%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)

-5 00005 00010 00015 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

-15 000-10 000-5 00005 00010 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Worth a look
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.09x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.88x.
year2022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.00x—1.09x1.26x
accruals, % of assets0.0%-22.6%-2.3%-5.9%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.32x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 0.0x · capex 0.6x of depreciation · dividends 65% of free cash flow
● Capex is 59% of depreciation - the asset base is being consumed faster than replaced.
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −14% (factor 0.86)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Fundamental value creation

Value the company creates per year, as a % of market cap

Value created per year: +13.2%

How this was calculated
1. EBITDA growth (latest quarter YoY, annualised)
[EBITDA latest qtr − EBITDA year-ago qtr] × annualisation X (2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30)
= (6 986 − 5 823) × 2.07
2 406
2. Current EV/EBITDA (LTM)
(Market cap + Net debt) ÷ EBITDA (LTM)
= (96 220 + 6 261) ÷ 14 452
7.1x
3. Target multiple
(Current EV/EBITDA + 6.5) ÷ 2
= (7.1 + 6.5) ÷ 2
6.8x
4. Cash flow (balance method, LTM)
Net-debt reduction + dividends + buybacks − equity issuance
= -6 702 + 3 060 + 0 − 0
-3 642
5. Value created per year
(EBITDA growth × Target multiple + Cash flow − Dilution) ÷ Market cap
= (2 406 × 6.8 + -3 642) ÷ 96 220
+13.2%

Amounts in millions of the reporting currency. EBITDA growth is the latest quarter vs the same quarter a year ago, annualised.

Caveats:

  • half-year basis (semi-annual reporter)

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth +31% vs +20% the year before — a +11.3 pp move. 3-year CAGR +20%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +10% · 2024 +20% · 2025 +31%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 7.2x · 3-year 75th pct 7.7x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Healthcare. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
HapvidaBrazil0.83.2x1.7x
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUS377.715.4x2.7x
Merck & Co., Inc.US375.715.7x2.8x
AMGEN INCUS237.617.5x3.1x
NetcareSouth Africa1.24.9x3.6x
Life HealthcareSouth Africa1.15.7x4.2x
AbbVie Inc.US505.024.4x4.3x
JOHNSON & JOHNSONUS620.724.7x4.4x
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC.US261.127.0x4.8x
ELI LILLY & CoUS1137.133.1x5.9x
PromomedRussia1.16.4x6.4x
Mitra Keluarga KaryasehatIndonesia1.19.0x6.5x
Group median15.5x4.3x
Group average15.6x4.2x
This companyRussia1.27.1x7.1x

Group median 15.5x as traded, 4.3x adjusted; this company 7.1x — a 66% premium.

Group average 15.6x as traded, 4.2x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 69% premium.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -40% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -6%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)11 bn RUB
Payout ratio50%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 0.0x)10 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)85.00 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share85.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-7.2 pp
= Fair dividend yield7.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price1288 ₽
Forecast dividend yield6.6%
Fair price (dividend-based)1214 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Three-year model and IRR checks passed

Expected IRR: +27% (bear +14% … bull +48%)

price in 3 years 2 370 ₽ (+84% к 1 287 ₽); dividends along the way 207 ₽ (+16% цены); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue49.0 bn59.3 bn68.0 bn75.4 bn
Revenue growth—+21%+15%+11%
EBITDA14.5 bn17.5 bn20.4 bn23.1 bn
EBITDA margin29.5%29.5%30.0%30.6%
less D&A3.2 bn3.6 bn3.9 bn4.1 bn
EBIT11.3 bn13.9 bn16.6 bn19.0 bn
less net interest—1.1 bn313-259
less tax—3.2 bn4.1 bn4.8 bn
Net profit11.3 bn9.6 bn12.2 bn14.4 bn
Capex5.5 bn4.7 bn5.4 bn6.0 bn
Capex to revenue11.2%7.9%7.9%7.9%
Free cash flow9.5 bn
operating cash flow less capex
10.5 bn13.2 bn15.5 bn
Net debt6.5 bn-109-8.0 bn-17.4 bn
Net debt / EBITDA0.5x-0.0x-0.4x-0.8x
Dividend per share85.00 ₽55.15 ₽69.66 ₽82.42 ₽
Yield on current price6.6%4.3%5.4%6.4%
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Company guidance (adjusted for its own track record)
guided +22%, applied +22%
MD Medical Group («Мать и дитя») ожидает роста выручки на 20–23% в 2026 году; темпы ниже 2025 года (+31,2%), который поддержала покупка сети медцентров «Эксперт».		40%+22% · +15% · +11%
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY +34%; acceleration +13.8pp
LTM г/г по отчётности		25%+25% · +16% · +12%
Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 7)
Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена		36%+18% · +13% · +11%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 6.96x (5.72x…10.00x)
No re-rating: min(current 7.1x, three-year median 7.0x). Re-rating to 10.0x on a falling rate is the bull case
Second valuation: discounted cash flow2 034 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
80% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy50% of net profit, capped by cash flow
Year-3 EBITDA margin target30.6%
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governancequality multiplier 0.86 — flags: dividend_decline; the model's dividend is cut 14% by penalties measured on distributions
Model versus analyst forecasts
Linemodelanalystsgap
2027 Консенсус, houses: 7.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027
Revenue59.3 bn57.8 bn1.03x
EBITDA17.5 bn17.0 bn1.03x
Net profit9.6 bn13.3 bn0.72x
2028 Консенсус, houses: 4.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028
Revenue68.0 bn65.8 bn1.03x
EBITDA20.4 bn19.9 bn1.03x
Net profit12.2 bn15.6 bn0.78x

The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.

Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue910%0.94x89%
EBITDA97%0.97x67%
Net profit820%0.99x50%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 1 117 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 708 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 1 214 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 1 623 ₽

Checks and caveats
  • ✓ Growth sources: consensus, guidance, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR +15%
  • ✓ Year-3 margin 31% inside history 29%–34%
  • ✓ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA -0.8x
  • ✓ Three-year dividends — 16% of the current price
  • ✓ IRR +27%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ Historical check (9 observations): median EBITDA miss 2.3 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 67% of cases, relative error 7% at bias 0.97x, revenue 10%
  • ✓ Exit multiple and discounted cash flow agree (2,370 vs 2,034, 1.17x); in the DCF 80% of value sits in the terminal value
  • ✓ Versus the analyst forecast for 2027 (7 houses): revenue 1.03x, EBITDA 1.03x, profit 0.72x
  • ✓ Governance: quality multiplier 0.86 (flags: dividend_decline). Penalties measured on distributions cut the model's dividend by 14%
  • ✓ The formula undercounts cash: over 4 reported years free cash flow came to 1.24 of 'EBITDA less capex, interest and tax', and the excess held in 3 of 4 years. The forecast is scaled up 1.24x — never above 1.3, which would extrapolate a good year
  • ✓ One-year value agrees with an independent estimate: Frontier див-модель (1.34x). Compared with: eninvs Company_Forecast, eninvs DividendPrediction, Frontier див-модель
  • ✓ Year 1 within -0% of guidance
  • Year-1 margin from the company's EBITDA margin guidance: guided 30% vs 29% actual, applied 30% (delivery-record shrink 1.00)

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 85.00 RUB/sh · 6.6%

Pay yearDividend /sh
202685.00 ₽
202564.00 ₽
2024183.00 ₽
20228.55 ₽
202137.00 ₽
202028.30 ₽
201910.65 ₽
20186.00 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2026 q42026-10-1638.00 ₽
2026 q32026-07-1347.00 ₽
2025 q42025-10-1742.00 ₽
2025 q22025-05-1622.00 ₽
2024 q42024-11-2820.00 ₽
2024 q32024-09-0622.00 ₽
2024 q22024-06-19141.00 ₽
2022 q42022-11-038.55 ₽
2021 q32021-09-2218.00 ₽
2021 q22021-05-0319.00 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 3 (3 positive), last 30 days: 6 (5 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 14 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

30.09.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров МКПАО «МД Медикал Груп» решил выплатить промежуточные дивиденды в размере 38 руб. на акцию по результатам 6 месяцев 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 19 октября 2026 года.
28.08.26Filing★ Финансовые результаты деятельности эмитента (компаний группы эмитента) (прогнозные, предварительные, фактические)
МД Медикал Груп Инвестментс опубликовала аудированные финансовые результаты за 6 месяцев, завершившихся 30.06.2026. Акции компании зарегистрированы под номером 1-01-16802-A и имеют ISIN RU000A108KL3.
31.07.26Filing★ Операционные результаты деятельности эмитента (компаний группы эмитента) (прогнозные, предварительные, фактические)
Эмитент МД Медикал Груп Инвестментс опубликовал операционные и неаудированные финансовые результаты за 2 квартал и 6 месяцев 2026 года. Акции эмитента имеют государственный регистрационный номер 1-01-16802-A, зарегистрированные 13 мая 2024 года.
29.06.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров Международной Компании Публичное Акционерное Общество «МД Медикал Груп Инвестментс» 25 июня 2026 года было принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 47 руб. на акцию по итогам 2025 года, а также утверждено вознаграждение членам Совета директоров в размере до 9,5 млн. руб.
29.06.26Filing★ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента
Компания 'МД Медикал Груп Инвестментс' установила дату фиксации владельцев акций для получения дивидендов на 14 июля 2026 года. Акции имеют международный код ISIN RU000A108KL3.
24.06.26Filing★ ▲ Совершение подконтрольной эмитенту организацией существенной сделки
Компания 'МД Медикал Груп Инвестментс' через подконтрольную организацию 'ХАВЕН' совершила существенную сделку по покупке 100% долей в 'Клиник Менеджмент Груп' и 100% акций 'Ильинская больница' за 840,1 млн. руб., что составляет 1,7% от стоимости активов. Общая стоимость сделки составляет 6,37 млрд. руб., что равно 12,84% от стоимости активов.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of MD Medical (MDMG) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s P/E ratio?
MD Medical (MDMG) trades at a P/E of 8.5x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s EV/EBITDA?
MD Medical (MDMG) trades at 7.1x EV/EBITDA.
What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s P/B ratio?
MD Medical (MDMG) trades at a P/B of 2.6x.
What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s dividend yield?
MD Medical (MDMG)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 6.6%.
What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s return on equity (ROE)?
MD Medical (MDMG)'s ROE is 28.3%.
What is MD Medical (MDMG)'s market capitalization?
MD Medical (MDMG)'s market cap is 96.2 bn RUB.

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