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Beluga RUB

Novabev Group (formerly Beluga Group) is Russia's largest spirits producer and distributor (Beluga vodka among other brands), an importer of foreign brands and the owner of the WineLab retail chain.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+8% y/y, H1 2026)✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 3.0 vs avg 4.3)✗Profit falling (-38% y/y, H1 2026)

Sector: Retail

RU_BELU

Price chart

270.2 RUBDay 0.30%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
270.2 RUB · 0.30%
Market cap
24.9 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
7.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
9.0%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
5.7x
3y avg: 8.4x
P/B (FY)
1.1x
P/E (ann.)
9.6x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
3.0x
3y avg: 4.3x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
3.3x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.6%
FCF yield (LTM)
17.9%

Value creation

fundamental value/yr, % of market cap
Value created / year

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
39.3 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)PARTIAL74.4
y/y 7.6%
6.3
y/y 9.3%
3.7
y/y 8.6%
10.0
y/y 9.0%
1.3
y/y -38.3%
7.1-2.0128.5
y/y 13.7%
24.2
y/y 0.8%
11.1%42.1Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK80.1
y/y 2.2%
8.4
y/y 6.7%
3.6
y/y 10.8%
12.0
y/y 7.9%
3.1
y/y 19.3%
3.6-4.8128.3
y/y 4.4%
22.4
y/y -16.2%
22.3%41.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK69.2
y/y 21.1%
5.8
y/y 28.2%
3.4
y/y 12.9%
9.2
y/y 22.0%
2.1
y/y 4.2%
8.7-1.5113.0
y/y 12.7%
24.0
y/y -5.4%
16.6%37.7Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)PARTIAL78.4
y/y 13.7%
7.8
y/y -12.4%
3.3
y/y 17.7%
11.1
y/y -5.3%
2.6
y/y -48.8%
15.5-1.9122.9
y/y 27.7%
26.7
y/y 0.3%
17.6%35.5Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK57.1
y/y 19.1%
4.5
y/y -9.6%
3.0
y/y 18.3%
7.6
y/y -0.1%
2.0
y/y -33.8%
-0.1-1.4100.3
y/y 13.0%
25.4
y/y 7.4%
15.5%43.8Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK69.0
y/y —
8.9
y/y —
2.8
y/y —
11.7
y/y —
5.0
y/y —
8.7-1.596.2
y/y —
26.6
y/y —
32.1%32.1Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK47.9
y/y —
5.0
y/y —
2.6
y/y —
7.6
y/y —
3.0
y/y —
-2.0-1.488.7
y/y —
23.7
y/y —
—36.4Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)7 273
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)60 251
− Cash & equivalents25 435
Net debt42 089

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.9x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

020 00040 00060 00080 000100 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-10%0%10%20%30%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

Cash flow (OCF + ICF; OCF − capex when ICF is unavailable) (₽ mln)

-5 00005 00010 00015 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

010 00020 00030 00040 00050 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 2.21x of reported net profit; after capex, 1.61x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit2.21x0.73x0.83x3.34x2.38x
accruals, % of assets-6.0%2.5%1.4%-8.7%-5.5%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 2.45x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 2.0x · capex 0.6x of depreciation · dividends 74% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −9% (factor 0.91)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Fundamental value creation

Value the company creates per year, as a % of market cap

Value created per year: +28.4%

How this was calculated
1. EBITDA growth (latest quarter YoY, annualised)
[EBITDA latest qtr − EBITDA year-ago qtr] × annualisation X (2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30)
= (10 047 − 9 217) × 2.19
1 820
2. Current EV/EBITDA (LTM)
(Market cap + Net debt) ÷ EBITDA (LTM)
= (24 932 + 42 089) ÷ 22 034
3.0x
3. Target multiple
(Current EV/EBITDA + 6.5) ÷ 2
= (3.0 + 6.5) ÷ 2
4.8x
4. Cash flow (balance method, LTM)
Net-debt reduction + dividends + buybacks − equity issuance
= -4 689 + 3 091 + 0 − 0
-1 598
5. Value created per year
(EBITDA growth × Target multiple + Cash flow − Dilution) ÷ Market cap
= (1 820 × 4.8 + -1 598) ÷ 24 932
+28.4%

Amounts in millions of the reporting currency. EBITDA growth is the latest quarter vs the same quarter a year ago, annualised.

Caveats:

  • half-year basis (semi-annual reporter)

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth +10% vs +16% the year before — a -5.7 pp move. 3-year CAGR +15%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +20% · 2024 +16% · 2025 +10%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 3.0x · 3-year 75th pct 5.2x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Retail. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
Fix PriceRussia0.51.2x1.2x
HendersonRussia0.11.8x1.8x
MagnitRussia1.52.0x2.0x
Magazine LuizaBrazil2.04.5x2.4x
LentaRussia2.52.7x2.7x
VseInstrumentiRussia0.52.7x2.7x
Woolworths HoldingsSouth Africa2.23.7x2.8x
X5 Retail GroupRussia6.62.9x2.9x
The Foschini GroupSouth Africa1.05.0x3.7x
Abrau DursoRussia0.24.9x4.9x
Shoprite HoldingsSouth Africa11.27.0x5.2x
OKEYRussia0.25.5x5.5x
Group median3.3x2.7x
Group average3.7x3.1x
This companyRussia0.33.0x3.0x

Group median 3.3x as traded, 2.7x adjusted; this company 3.0x — a 11% premium.

Group average 3.7x as traded, 3.1x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 3% discount.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -27% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -22%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)4 bn RUB
Payout ratio50%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.0x)9 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)18.00 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share18.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-5.3 pp
= Fair dividend yield8.6%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price272 ₽
Forecast dividend yield6.6%
Fair price (dividend-based)213 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Three-year model and IRR with caveats

Expected IRR: +14% (bear -50% … bull +85%)

price in 3 years 262 ₽ (-3% к 272 ₽); dividends along the way 127 ₽ (+47% цены); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue154.5 bn173.4 bn190.5 bn206.6 bn
Revenue growth—+12%+10%+8%
EBITDA22.0 bn24.7 bn27.1 bn29.4 bn
EBITDA margin14.3%14.2%14.2%14.2%
less D&A7.4 bn7.9 bn8.3 bn8.8 bn
EBIT14.7 bn16.8 bn18.8 bn20.6 bn
less net interest—7.1 bn6.4 bn6.4 bn
less tax1.7 bn2.4 bn3.1 bn3.5 bn
Net profit4.4 bn7.3 bn9.3 bn10.6 bn
Capex4.2 bn6.3 bn6.7 bn7.0 bn
Capex to revenue2.7%3.6%3.5%3.4%
Free cash flow6.5 bn
operating cash flow less capex
7.2 bn8.8 bn10.0 bn
Net debt42.7 bn49.2 bn57.4 bn66.1 bn
Net debt / EBITDA1.9x2.0x2.1x2.2x
Dividend per share18.00 ₽28.80 ₽45.70 ₽52.41 ₽
Yield on current price6.6%10.6%16.8%19.3%
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY +5%; acceleration -12.3pp
LTM г/г по отчётности
51%+6% · +6% · +6%
Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 3)
Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена
49%+19% · +14% · +11%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 3.08x (2.46x…4.50x)
No re-rating: min(current 3.1x, three-year median 4.3x). Re-rating to 4.5x on a falling rate is the bull case
Second valuation: discounted cash flow1 075 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
80% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy50% of net profit, capped by cash flow
Year-3 EBITDA margin target14.2%
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governancequality multiplier 0.91 — flags: dividend_decline; the model's dividend is cut 9% by penalties measured on distributions
Model versus analyst forecasts
Linemodelanalystsgap
2027 Консенсус, houses: 3.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027
Revenue173.4 bn184.1 bn0.94x
EBITDA24.7 bn18.8 bn1.31x
Net profit7.3 bn7.3 bn1.01x
2028 Консенсус, houses: 1.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028
Revenue190.5 bn208.2 bn0.92x
EBITDA27.1 bn20.2 bn1.34x
Net profit9.3 bn5.9 bn1.56x

The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.

Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue95%1.02x89%
EBITDA914%1.01x78%
Net profit928%0.94x22%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 856 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 66.67 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 213 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 290 ₽

Checks and caveats
  • ⚠ Thin equity: it is a small slice of EV, a 10% EBITDA move shifts the valuation by roughly 37%
  • ⚠ The two valuations of the same cash flow differ 0.2x: exit multiple 262 vs discounted cash flow 1,075 — the target rests on the multiple assumption rather than on the flow; in the DCF 80% of value sits in the terminal value
  • ⚠ Our gap to the houses is the lease basis, not the forecast. Profit matches (1.01x), EBITDA is 1.31x, and our net debt is 37 912 higher against an EBITDA gap of 5 914 a year — 6.4 years of payments. That is IFRS 16 versus IAS 17: we keep leases in debt and in D&A, the street takes rent out of EBITDA. Below EBITDA the two bases agree, so the EBITDA gap says nothing about forecast quality
  • ⚠ The growth is bought, not earned: for every rouble of EBITDA added over three years, net debt grew by 4.4 roubles. The model carries the historical EBITDA pace forward but only funds maintenance capex — acquisitions are not in the outflows. If growth keeps costing the same, free cash flow and dividends here are overstated
  • ⚠ Net debt grows for reasons beyond a cash shortfall: over 5 years it added 6.7% of revenue a year on top of cash flow and dividends (range +0.3…+11.3%) — new leases, acquisitions, revaluation. That addition is carried in the forecast; without it the model would show deleveraging where debt keeps rising
  • ✓ Growth sources: consensus, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR +10%
  • ✓ Year-3 margin 14% inside history 14%–18%
  • ✓ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA 2.2x
  • ✓ Three-year dividends — 47% of the current price
  • ✓ IRR +14%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ Historical check (9 observations): median EBITDA miss 2.2 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 89% of cases, relative error 14% at bias 1.01x, revenue 5%
  • ✓ Versus the analyst forecast for 2027 (3 houses): revenue 0.94x, EBITDA 1.31x, profit 1.01x — the EBITDA gap is explained by the lease basis
  • ✓ Governance: quality multiplier 0.91 (flags: dividend_decline). Penalties measured on distributions cut the model's dividend by 9%
  • ✓ One-year value agrees with an independent estimate: Frontier див-модель (1.36x). Compared with: eninvs Company_Forecast, eninvs DividendPrediction, Frontier див-модель

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 18.00 RUB/sh · 6.6%

Pay yearDividend /sh
202618.00 ₽
202545.00 ₽
202440.62 ₽
2023116.25 ₽
202224.66 ₽
202120.34 ₽
20205.25 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2026 q42026-10-098.00 ₽
2026 q22026-06-2610.00 ₽
2025 q42025-10-1620.00 ₽
2025 q22025-06-0625.00 ₽
2024 q42024-10-1012.50 ₽
2024 q22024-05-1028.12 ₽
2023 q42023-12-2616.88 ₽
2023 q32023-09-2840.00 ₽
2023 q22023-04-2450.00 ₽
2023 q12023-01-199.38 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 3 (3 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 17 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

02.10.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
02.10.2026 ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' присвоен кредитный рейтинг ruAA- для биржевых облигаций серии 004P-02. Рейтинг присвоен Рейтинговым Агентством 'Эксперт РА'.
01.10.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На внеочередном собрании акционеров ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 8 руб. на акцию. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 12 октября 2026 года.
17.07.26Filing★ ▼ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
17 июля 2026 года ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' получило кредитный рейтинг ruАА-, который изменился с ruАА с прогнозом 'стабильный'. Рейтинг присвоен Рейтинговым Агентством 'Эксперт РА'.
18.06.26Filing★ ▲ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента
29 июня 2026 года будет определена дата фиксации лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов по обыкновенным акциям ПАО 'НоваБев Групп'. Дивиденды будут выплачиваться по акциям с госрегистрационным номером 1-01-55052-Е и ISIN RU000A0HL5M1.
27.05.26Filing★ ▼ Отчуждение подконтрольной эмитенту организацией голосующих акций (долей) эмитента или депозитарных расписок на акции эмитента
Подконтрольная организации эмитента 'НоваБев Групп' Tottenwell Limited отчуждает 500 тыс. голосующих акций, что снижает их количество с 2,76 млн. до 2,26 млн. акций. Сделка произошла 26 мая 2026 года.
30.09.26Material eventИнформация об иных событиях (действиях), оказывающих, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
30 сентября 2026 года ПАО «НоваБев Групп» установит надбавку в размере 2,25% к Ключевой ставке Банка России по купонам своих Биржевых облигаций. Это событие может существенно повлиять на стоимость и котировки ценных бумаг компании.
09.09.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' одобрил крупную сделку с ПАО 'БАНК УРАЛСИБ', связанной с обеспечением обязательств по договорам банковских гарантий. Сделка включает изменение сроков и лимитов гарантийных обязательств, а также продление сроков действия договоров до 2031 и 2034 годов.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Beluga — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Beluga's P/E ratio?
Beluga trades at a P/E of 5.7x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Beluga's EV/EBITDA?
Beluga trades at 3.0x EV/EBITDA.
What is Beluga's P/B ratio?
Beluga trades at a P/B of 1.1x.
What is Beluga's dividend yield?
Beluga's trailing 12-month dividend yield is 6.6%.
What is Beluga's return on equity (ROE)?
Beluga's ROE is 11.1%.
What is Beluga's market capitalization?
Beluga's market cap is 24.9 bn RUB.

Bonds by this issuer

IssueYTMCouponPrice, %1DVolume today, ₽Avg vol. 20D, ₽Maturity
НоваБевБП516.7%10.85%97.45-0.02%1.3M2.7M07.2027
НоваБевБП7floatfloat100.09-0.04%137K2.4M08.2027
НоваБев3Р116.1%14.5%99.30+0.15%815K17.4M09.2028
НоваБев4Р2floatfloat100.75+0.06%285K35.6M09.2028
НоваБев3Р216.3%15.25%100.14-0.14%115K4.2M01.2029
НоваБев3Р316.4%14.5%98.61-0.14%694K4.3M03.2029
НоваБев4Р116.6%16.25%101.78+0.09%11.0M41.3M09.2029

Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.

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