
Novabev Group (formerly Beluga Group) is Russia's largest spirits producer and distributor (Beluga vodka among other brands), an importer of foreign brands and the owner of the WineLab retail chain.
Sector: Retail
RU_BELU
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | PARTIAL | 74.4 y/y 7.6% | 6.3 y/y 9.3% | 3.7 y/y 8.6% | 10.0 y/y 9.0% | 1.3 y/y -38.3% | 7.1 | -2.0 | 128.5 y/y 13.7% | 24.2 y/y 0.8% | 11.1% | 42.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 80.1 y/y 2.2% | 8.4 y/y 6.7% | 3.6 y/y 10.8% | 12.0 y/y 7.9% | 3.1 y/y 19.3% | 3.6 | -4.8 | 128.3 y/y 4.4% | 22.4 y/y -16.2% | 22.3% | 41.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 69.2 y/y 21.1% | 5.8 y/y 28.2% | 3.4 y/y 12.9% | 9.2 y/y 22.0% | 2.1 y/y 4.2% | 8.7 | -1.5 | 113.0 y/y 12.7% | 24.0 y/y -5.4% | 16.6% | 37.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | PARTIAL | 78.4 y/y 13.7% | 7.8 y/y -12.4% | 3.3 y/y 17.7% | 11.1 y/y -5.3% | 2.6 y/y -48.8% | 15.5 | -1.9 | 122.9 y/y 27.7% | 26.7 y/y 0.3% | 17.6% | 35.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 57.1 y/y 19.1% | 4.5 y/y -9.6% | 3.0 y/y 18.3% | 7.6 y/y -0.1% | 2.0 y/y -33.8% | -0.1 | -1.4 | 100.3 y/y 13.0% | 25.4 y/y 7.4% | 15.5% | 43.8 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 69.0 y/y — | 8.9 y/y — | 2.8 y/y — | 11.7 y/y — | 5.0 y/y — | 8.7 | -1.5 | 96.2 y/y — | 26.6 y/y — | 32.1% | 32.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 47.9 y/y — | 5.0 y/y — | 2.6 y/y — | 7.6 y/y — | 3.0 y/y — | -2.0 | -1.4 | 88.7 y/y — | 23.7 y/y — | — | 36.4 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 7 273 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 60 251 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 25 435 |
| Net debt | 42 089 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.9x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
Cash flow (OCF + ICF; OCF − capex when ICF is unavailable) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 2.21x | 0.73x | 0.83x | 3.34x | 2.38x |
| accruals, % of assets | -6.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | -8.7% | -5.5% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Potential discount −9% (factor 0.91)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Value the company creates per year, as a % of market cap
Value created per year: +28.4%
| 1. EBITDA growth (latest quarter YoY, annualised) [EBITDA latest qtr − EBITDA year-ago qtr] × annualisation X (2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30) = (10 047 − 9 217) × 2.19 | 1 820 |
| 2. Current EV/EBITDA (LTM) (Market cap + Net debt) ÷ EBITDA (LTM) = (24 932 + 42 089) ÷ 22 034 | 3.0x |
| 3. Target multiple (Current EV/EBITDA + 6.5) ÷ 2 = (3.0 + 6.5) ÷ 2 | 4.8x |
| 4. Cash flow (balance method, LTM) Net-debt reduction + dividends + buybacks − equity issuance = -4 689 + 3 091 + 0 − 0 | -1 598 |
| 5. Value created per year (EBITDA growth × Target multiple + Cash flow − Dilution) ÷ Market cap = (1 820 × 4.8 + -1 598) ÷ 24 932 | +28.4% |
Amounts in millions of the reporting currency. EBITDA growth is the latest quarter vs the same quarter a year ago, annualised.
Caveats:
Current 3.0x · 3-year 75th pct 5.2x
Group: Retail. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fix Price | Russia | 0.5 | 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Henderson | Russia | 0.1 | 1.8x | 1.8x |
| Magnit | Russia | 1.5 | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Magazine Luiza | Brazil | 2.0 | 4.5x | 2.4x |
| Lenta | Russia | 2.5 | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| VseInstrumenti | Russia | 0.5 | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| Woolworths Holdings | South Africa | 2.2 | 3.7x | 2.8x |
| X5 Retail Group | Russia | 6.6 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| The Foschini Group | South Africa | 1.0 | 5.0x | 3.7x |
| Abrau Durso | Russia | 0.2 | 4.9x | 4.9x |
| Shoprite Holdings | South Africa | 11.2 | 7.0x | 5.2x |
| OKEY | Russia | 0.2 | 5.5x | 5.5x |
| Group median | 3.3x | 2.7x | ||
| Group average | 3.7x | 3.1x | ||
| This company | Russia | 0.3 | 3.0x | 3.0x |
Group median 3.3x as traded, 2.7x adjusted; this company 3.0x — a 11% premium.
Group average 3.7x as traded, 3.1x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 3% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -27% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: -22%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 4 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 50% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.0x) | 9 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 18.00 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 18.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -5.3 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 8.6% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 272 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 6.6% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 213 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
Expected IRR: +14% (bear -50% … bull +85%)
price in 3 years 262 ₽ (-3% к 272 ₽); dividends along the way 127 ₽ (+47% цены); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 154.5 bn | 173.4 bn | 190.5 bn | 206.6 bn |
| Revenue growth | — | +12% | +10% | +8% |
| EBITDA | 22.0 bn | 24.7 bn | 27.1 bn | 29.4 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 14.3% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| less D&A | 7.4 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.8 bn |
| EBIT | 14.7 bn | 16.8 bn | 18.8 bn | 20.6 bn |
| less net interest | — | 7.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.4 bn |
| less tax | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Net profit | 4.4 bn | 7.3 bn | 9.3 bn | 10.6 bn |
| Capex | 4.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Free cash flow | 6.5 bn operating cash flow less capex | 7.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.0 bn |
| Net debt | 42.7 bn | 49.2 bn | 57.4 bn | 66.1 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.9x | 2.0x | 2.1x | 2.2x |
| Dividend per share | 18.00 ₽ | 28.80 ₽ | 45.70 ₽ | 52.41 ₽ |
| Yield on current price | 6.6% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 19.3% |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY +5%; acceleration -12.3pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 51% | +6% · +6% · +6% |
| Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 3) Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена | 49% | +19% · +14% · +11% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 3.08x (2.46x…4.50x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 3.1x, three-year median 4.3x). Re-rating to 4.5x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 1 075 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 80% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 50% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Year-3 EBITDA margin target | 14.2% |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | quality multiplier 0.91 — flags: dividend_decline; the model's dividend is cut 9% by penalties measured on distributions |
| Line | model | analysts | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Консенсус, houses: 3.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027 | |||
| Revenue | 173.4 bn | 184.1 bn | 0.94x |
| EBITDA | 24.7 bn | 18.8 bn | 1.31x |
| Net profit | 7.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 1.01x |
| 2028 Консенсус, houses: 1.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028 | |||
| Revenue | 190.5 bn | 208.2 bn | 0.92x |
| EBITDA | 27.1 bn | 20.2 bn | 1.34x |
| Net profit | 9.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 1.56x |
The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9 | 5% | 1.02x | 89% |
| EBITDA | 9 | 14% | 1.01x | 78% |
| Net profit | 9 | 28% | 0.94x | 22% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 856 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 66.67 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 213 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 290 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 18.00 RUB/sh · 6.6%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.00 ₽ | |
| 2025 | 45.00 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 40.62 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 116.25 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 24.66 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 20.34 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 5.25 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q4 | 2026-10-09 | 8.00 ₽ |
| 2026 q2 | 2026-06-26 | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2025 q4 | 2025-10-16 | 20.00 ₽ |
| 2025 q2 | 2025-06-06 | 25.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q4 | 2024-10-10 | 12.50 ₽ |
| 2024 q2 | 2024-05-10 | 28.12 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-12-26 | 16.88 ₽ |
| 2023 q3 | 2023-09-28 | 40.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q2 | 2023-04-24 | 50.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q1 | 2023-01-19 | 9.38 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 3 (3 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 17 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 02.10.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора 02.10.2026 ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' присвоен кредитный рейтинг ruAA- для биржевых облигаций серии 004P-02. Рейтинг присвоен Рейтинговым Агентством 'Эксперт РА'. |
| 01.10.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На внеочередном собрании акционеров ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 8 руб. на акцию. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, установлена на 12 октября 2026 года. |
| 17.07.26 | Filing | ★ ▼ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора 17 июля 2026 года ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' получило кредитный рейтинг ruАА-, который изменился с ruАА с прогнозом 'стабильный'. Рейтинг присвоен Рейтинговым Агентством 'Эксперт РА'. |
| 18.06.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента 29 июня 2026 года будет определена дата фиксации лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов по обыкновенным акциям ПАО 'НоваБев Групп'. Дивиденды будут выплачиваться по акциям с госрегистрационным номером 1-01-55052-Е и ISIN RU000A0HL5M1. |
| 27.05.26 | Filing | ★ ▼ Отчуждение подконтрольной эмитенту организацией голосующих акций (долей) эмитента или депозитарных расписок на акции эмитента Подконтрольная организации эмитента 'НоваБев Групп' Tottenwell Limited отчуждает 500 тыс. голосующих акций, что снижает их количество с 2,76 млн. до 2,26 млн. акций. Сделка произошла 26 мая 2026 года. |
| 30.09.26 | Material event | Информация об иных событиях (действиях), оказывающих, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг 30 сентября 2026 года ПАО «НоваБев Групп» установит надбавку в размере 2,25% к Ключевой ставке Банка России по купонам своих Биржевых облигаций. Это событие может существенно повлиять на стоимость и котировки ценных бумаг компании. |
| 09.09.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО 'НоваБев Групп' одобрил крупную сделку с ПАО 'БАНК УРАЛСИБ', связанной с обеспечением обязательств по договорам банковских гарантий. Сделка включает изменение сроков и лимитов гарантийных обязательств, а также продление сроков действия договоров до 2031 и 2034 годов. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Beluga — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| НоваБевБП5 | 16.7% | 10.85% | 97.45 | -0.02% | 1.3M | 2.7M | 07.2027 |
| НоваБевБП7 | float | float | 100.09 | -0.04% | 137K | 2.4M | 08.2027 |
| НоваБев3Р1 | 16.1% | 14.5% | 99.30 | +0.15% | 815K | 17.4M | 09.2028 |
| НоваБев4Р2 | float | float | 100.75 | +0.06% | 285K | 35.6M | 09.2028 |
| НоваБев3Р2 | 16.3% | 15.25% | 100.14 | -0.14% | 115K | 4.2M | 01.2029 |
| НоваБев3Р3 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 98.61 | -0.14% | 694K | 4.3M | 03.2029 |
| НоваБев4Р1 | 16.6% | 16.25% | 101.78 | +0.09% | 11.0M | 41.3M | 09.2029 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
See also: The Cheapest Stocks in the World (2026): What Value Investing Says About Buying Cheap · global valuation map