Russian market: strong and weak reports of the season, where the ideas are
Almost the whole spread between strong and weak reports comes down to one factor: the high key rate. It squeezes cyclicals (steel, construction, leasing volume, oil cash flow) and, conversely, feeds rate-geared financials (the exchange, banks' interest income). A rate turn is the main re-rating trigger for the beaten-down names.
Where we expect strong reports
Financials and digital platforms keep the pace. Sberbank posted +16% revenue and profit in Q1 at a P/E near 3.2 and a ~11% yield — the market anchor. OZON — revenue +49%, EBITDA +79% and a swing to profit, fintech scaling. Yandex — revenue +22%, EBITDA +54%. The Moscow Exchange — June turnover +42.9% YoY on the high rate (which is also the risk when it turns). T-Technologies — revenue +29%, MTS — profit +33%.
Revenue YoY, latest reported period
Where we expect weak reports
Steel — the whole sector. Severstal already reported a weak Q2: revenue −9%, EBITDA −40%, profit −74%; MMK's Q1 EBITDA was −58%, NLMK's full-year −45%. A strong rouble, soft domestic demand and the high rate hit construction. Oil (LUKOIL, Rosneft, Tatneft, NOVATEK) already showed −30…−40% EBITDA for 2025 on the strong rouble and soft rouble-oil — the same drivers hold into H1. HeadHunter — revenue already −2% as the labour market cools (see the hh-index). PhosAgro, Aeroflot and Magnit — EBITDA under pressure, with Magnit's profit turning negative against a growing X5.
What looks interesting
X5 versus Magnit — X5 is clearly winning retail (revenue +11%, EBITDA +26% against a stalling Magnit), a cleaner pair than a blunt consumer bet. In gold the operating momentum favours UGC (output +13% in 2025) over Polyus (−16% by volume), though Polyus is cheaper (P/E 2.8) and its revenue is held up by the metal price. Steel (NLMK, MMK at EV/EBITDA 1.6–1.7) is a counter-cyclical bet: too early to buy into a weak H1 print, but the sharpest re-rating candidate on a rate cut. HeadHunter is cheap (P/E 3.0, 16% yield) but the cooling hiring market makes it a potential value trap until vacancy demand stabilises.
Data caveats
Astra looks like a collapse on paper (Q1 EBITDA and profit deep in the red), but that is seasonality: ~70% of annual shipments fall in H2 and Q1 is structurally the weakest. The real signal is H1 shipments +26%. A few source multiples are artefacts (Severstal's P/E and X5's yield are blanked in the table below); no conclusions rest on them.
| Company | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Div.yld | Period | Rev YoY | EBITDA YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Сбербанк | 3.2 | — | 10.8% | Q1 2026-03 | +15% | +16% |
| OZON | — | 7.3 | 3.4% | Q1 2026-03 | +49% | +79% |
| Яндекс | 10.7 | 4.6 | 4.7% | Q1 2026-03 | +22% | +54% |
| Мосбиржа | 4.8 | — | 14.9% | Q1 2026-03 | +16% | +32% |
| Т-Технологии | 3.1 | — | 5.8% | Q1 2026-03 | +29% | — |
| МТС | 7.4 | 3.2 | 15.4% | Q1 2026-03 | +15% | +18% |
| X5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | — | Q1 2026-03 | +11% | +26% |
| HeadHunter | 3.0 | 4.2 | 16.0% | Q1 2026-03 | -2% | -7% |
| Северсталь | — | 4.2 | — | Q2 2026-06 | -9% | -40% |
| НЛМК | 5.5 | 1.7 | — | FY 2025-12 | -15% | -45% |
| ММК | — | 1.6 | — | Q1 2026-03 | -19% | -58% |
| ЛУКОЙЛ | — | 2.6 | 23.2% | FY 2025-12 | -15% | -36% |
| Роснефть | 7.4 | 3.1 | 6.5% | Q1 2026-03 | -11% | +24% |
| НОВАТЭК | 14.2 | 6.7 | 7.3% | FY 2025-12 | -6% | -7% |
| ФосАгро | 8.7 | 5.9 | 6.3% | Q1 2026-03 | -18% | -44% |
| Полюс | 2.8 | 3.1 | 7.8% | FY 2025-12 | +3% | -7% |
| ЮГК | 7.9 | 5.7 | — | FY 2025-12 | +43% | +27% |
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are from issuer reporting and the portal's market data.
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