
Positive Technologies is a Russian cybersecurity company developing software for vulnerability management, network attack detection, application security and security operations centres.
Sector: Information Technology
RU_POSI
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Q2 2026 (3M) | OK | 6.1 y/y 38.9% | 0.1 y/y — | 0.9 y/y 20.9% | 1.0 y/y — | 0.0 y/y — | -2.5 | -1.8 | 50.8 y/y 21.6% | 21.0 y/y 75.7% | 0.4% | 13.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2026-03-31 | Q1 2026 (3M) | OK | 3.4 y/y 45.6% | -1.0 y/y — | 0.9 y/y 30.5% | -0.2 y/y — | -1.4 y/y — | 16.2 | -1.9 | 53.9 y/y 11.7% | 23.0 y/y 61.9% | -23.5% | 7.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | Q4 2025 (3M) | OK | 20.0 y/y 35.5% | 13.4 y/y 40.6% | 0.8 y/y 51.7% | 14.2 y/y 41.3% | 13.0 y/y 45.9% | -4.3 | -2.0 | 61.0 y/y 15.7% | 24.3 y/y 42.7% | 40.9% | 21.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-09-30 | Q3 2025 (3M) | OK | 4.1 y/y -6.4% | -0.2 y/y — | 0.8 y/y 52.6% | 0.6 y/y 676.2% | -0.7 y/y — | -1.5 | -1.5 | 42.3 y/y 77.6% | 11.2 y/y — | -8.6% | 21.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | Q2 2025 (3M) | OK | 4.4 y/y 42.0% | -1.6 y/y — | 0.7 y/y 60.9% | -0.9 y/y — | -2.2 y/y — | 2.7 | -2.0 | 41.8 y/y 117.0% | 11.9 y/y 438.0% | -68.7% | 18.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-03-31 | Q1 2025 (3M) | OK | 2.3 y/y 7.6% | -2.2 y/y — | 0.7 y/y 78.4% | -1.6 y/y — | -2.8 y/y — | 9.7 | -1.9 | 48.3 y/y — | 14.2 y/y — | -71.0% | 12.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | Q4 2024 (3M) | OK | 14.7 y/y — | 9.5 y/y 110.8% | 0.6 y/y 275.1% | 10.1 y/y 116.0% | 8.9 y/y 96.9% | -2.8 | -1.7 | 52.7 y/y 85.9% | 17.1 y/y 29.2% | 48.4% | 20.1 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-09-30 | Q3 2024 (3M) | OK | 4.4 y/y 20.8% | -0.5 y/y -162.1% | 0.5 y/y 0.0% | 0.1 y/y -93.9% | -0.8 y/y -254.7% | -1.5 | -1.9 | 23.8 y/y — | -1.9 y/y — | -732.0% | 15.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | Q2 2024 (3M) | OK | 3.1 y/y -1.6% | -2.9 y/y -4348.6% | 0.4 y/y 113.2% | -2.5 y/y -1000.2% | -2.9 y/y -3695.2% | 3.6 | -1.6 | 19.3 y/y 56.1% | 2.2 y/y -46.7% | — | 6.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-03-31 | Q1 2024 (3M) | PARTIAL | 2.2 y/y — | -1.5 y/y — | 0.4 y/y — | -1.1 y/y — | -1.5 y/y — | 3.6 | -1.4 | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | -6.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | FY 2023 (12M) | OK | — y/y — | 4.5 y/y — | 0.1 y/y — | 4.7 y/y — | 4.5 y/y — | 1.4 | -0.9 | 28.4 y/y — | 13.2 y/y — | — | 4.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-09-30 | Q3 2023 (3M) | PARTIAL | 3.7 y/y — | 0.7 y/y — | 0.5 y/y — | 1.3 y/y — | 0.5 y/y — | 0.1 | -0.9 | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | 2.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | Q2 2023 (3M) | OK | 3.2 y/y — | 0.1 y/y — | 0.2 y/y — | 0.3 y/y — | 0.1 y/y — | 1.7 | -0.8 | 12.3 y/y — | 4.2 y/y — | — | 2.7 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 5 196 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 15 309 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 7 448 |
| Net debt | 13 057 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 0.8x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.08x | 0.70x | 0.56x | 0.79x | 0.91x |
| accruals, % of assets | -1.7% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
Software firms capitalise much of their development spend into intangibles, so EBITDA overstates cash earnings. EBITDAC = EBITDA − capitalised development (the metric Positive Technologies reports itself).
EBITDAC (LTM): 8.6 blnEV/EBITDA (LTM): 6.1xEV/EBITDAC (LTM): 11.1x
| Period | EBITDA | Capitalised dev. | EBITDAC | EBITDAC % rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 Q2 | 1 007 | −1 754 | -748 | -12% |
| 2026-03-31 Q1 | -153 | −1 855 | -2 009 | -59% |
| 2025-12-31 Q4 | 14 223 | −1 977 | 12 246 | 61% |
| 2025-12-31 FY | 12 346 | −6 955 | 5 391 | 17% |
| 2025-09-30 Q3 | 595 | −1 468 | -873 | -21% |
| 2025-09-30 9M | -1 876 | −4 978 | -6 854 | -63% |
RUB mln
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Last 12 months (2025-11 – 2026-10): 377 contracts worth RUB 13 023 mn +13% YoY.
| Half-year | Contracts | Value, mn | Revenue, mn | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023H1 | 179 | 1 752 | 4 696 | 37% | – |
| 2023H2 | 265 | 2 884 | 17 517 | 16% | – |
| 2024H1 | 153 | 3 948 | 5 286 | 75% | +125% |
| 2024H2 | 247 | 3 558 | 19 171 | 19% | +23% |
| 2025H1 | 161 | 1 570 | 6 757 | 23% | -60% |
| 2025H2 | 261 | 11 132 | 24 124 | 46% | +213% |
| 2026H1 | 175 | 5 717 | 9 541 | 60% | +264% |
| 2026H2 * | 108 | 4 732 | – | – | – |
Largest customers, 12 months
Source: EIS contract registry (zakupki.gov.ru), 44-FZ, by contract signing date; 223-FZ hides suppliers and is excluded. Contract value is the customer price incl. VAT and distributor margin, not the producer's revenue, and leads shipments. Contracts naming Positive Technologies products in the subject; supplier is an integrator, so contract sums include third-party items. Data through 2026-10. * - incomplete half-year.
Value the company creates per year, as a % of market cap
Value created per year: +41.2%
| 1. EBITDA growth (latest quarter YoY, annualised) [EBITDA latest qtr − EBITDA year-ago qtr] × annualisation X (2026-06-30 vs 2025-06-30) = (1 007 − 725) × 15.57 | 4 385 |
| 2. Current EV/EBITDA (LTM) (Market cap + Net debt) ÷ EBITDA (LTM) = (82 765 + 13 057) ÷ 15 671 | 6.1x |
| 3. Target multiple (Current EV/EBITDA + 6.5) ÷ 2 = (6.1 + 6.5) ÷ 2 | 6.3x |
| 4. Cash flow (balance method, LTM) Net-debt reduction + dividends + buybacks − equity issuance = 5 449 + 1 000 + 0 − 0 | 6 449 |
| 4b. Share dilution (at market, LTM) Share-count growth over the year × Market cap = 0.0% × 82 765 | −0 |
| 5. Value created per year (EBITDA growth × Target multiple + Cash flow − Dilution) ÷ Market cap = (4 385 × 6.3 + 6 449 − 0) ÷ 82 765 | +41.2% |
Amounts in millions of the reporting currency. EBITDA growth is the latest quarter vs the same quarter a year ago, annualised.
Caveats:
Current 6.0x · 3-year 75th pct 24.4x
Group: Information Technology. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | US | 1027.9 | 9.1x | 1.7x |
| ORACLE CORP | US | 390.5 | 15.4x | 2.8x |
| INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP | US | 238.6 | 17.6x | 3.2x |
| MICROSOFT CORP | US | 3972.1 | 20.9x | 3.8x |
| NVIDIA CORP | US | 5394.8 | 26.9x | 4.9x |
| CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. | US | 423.2 | 27.3x | 5.0x |
| TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC | US | 259.9 | 28.4x | 5.2x |
| Apple Inc. | US | 5081.9 | 29.8x | 5.4x |
| Broadcom Inc. | US | 1639.3 | 30.0x | 5.5x |
| APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | US | 324.3 | 33.3x | 6.1x |
| LAM RESEARCH CORP | US | 326.3 | 37.6x | 6.9x |
| Arista Networks, Inc. | US | 235.1 | 50.2x | 9.1x |
| Group median | 27.8x | 5.1x | ||
| Group average | 27.2x | 5.0x | ||
| This company | Russia | 1.0 | 6.1x | 6.1x |
Group median 27.8x as traded, 5.1x adjusted; this company 6.1x — a 20% premium.
Group average 27.2x as traded, 5.0x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 23% premium.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -21% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.3x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividends suspended (~2.5 yr without a payout)
The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 7 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 64% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 1.7x) | -1 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 47.30 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 0.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -15.4 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 7.0% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 1161 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | — |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | — |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
The number is withheld — here is why
Historical check (9 observations): median EBITDA miss 22.1 pp of margin, within ±5 pp in 0% of cases, relative error 53% at bias 0.56x, revenue 19% — poor on both scales, the model's number is withheld
The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.
base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 33.7 bn | 43.8 bn | 52.6 bn | 60.1 bn |
| Revenue growth | — | +30% | +20% | +14% |
| EBITDA | 15.7 bn | 20.9 bn | 25.6 bn | 30.0 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 46.5% | 47.6% | 48.7% | 49.8% |
| less D&A | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn |
| EBIT | 12.3 bn | 16.9 bn | 21.2 bn | 25.2 bn |
| less net interest | 23 | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 966 |
| less tax | 182 | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 6.1 bn |
| Net profit | 10.9 bn | 11.1 bn | 14.8 bn | 18.2 bn |
| Capex | 7.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.6 bn | 12.1 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 21.4% | 20.2% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| Free cash flow | 8.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 6.2 bn |
| Net debt | 13.0 bn | 10.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 10 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.5x | 0.2x | 0.0x |
| Dividend per share | 47.30 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Company guidance (adjusted for its own track record) guided +26%, applied +22% Группа Позитив подтвердила прогноз отгрузок на 2026 год 40–45 млрд руб. при факте 2025 года 33,6 млрд — это +19…+34%. | 36% | +22% · +15% · +11% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY +30%; acceleration +16.1pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 26% | +26% · +17% · +12% |
| Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 8) Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена | 38% | +40% · +27% · +18% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 6.09x (4.87x…8.90x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 6.1x, three-year median 15.2x). Re-rating to 8.9x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 842 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 81% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 64% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Dividends | suspended — zero in the model |
| Year-3 EBITDA margin target | 49.8% |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | no flags: the dividend has not faded against profit, payouts were not suspended, no audit qualification and no manual penalty — quality multiplier 1.00 |
| Line | model | analysts | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Консенсус, houses: 8.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027 | |||
| Revenue | 43.8 bn | 47.1 bn | 0.93x |
| EBITDA | 20.9 bn | 21.4 bn | 0.98x |
| Net profit | 11.1 bn | 14.9 bn | 0.74x |
| 2028 Консенсус, houses: 4.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028 | |||
| Revenue | 52.6 bn | 60.4 bn | 0.87x |
| EBITDA | 25.6 bn | 28.9 bn | 0.89x |
| Net profit | 14.8 bn | 21.9 bn | 0.68x |
The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9 | 19% | 0.83x | 56% |
| EBITDA | 9 | 53% | 0.56x | 11% |
| Net profit | 7 | 72% | 0.62x | 14% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 2 730 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 1 646 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.30 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 53.67 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 19.56 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 150.44 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 q2 | 2024-04-18 | 47.30 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-11-30 | 15.80 ₽ |
| 2023 q2 | 2023-04-12 | 37.87 ₽ |
| 2022 q4 | 2022-11-10 | 5.16 ₽ |
| 2022 q2 | 2022-05-04 | 14.40 ₽ |
| 2020 q4 | 2020-11-26 | 150.44 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 2 (2 positive), last 30 days: 4 (3 positive, 1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 16 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 23.09.26 | Material event | ★ ▲ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг АГКРА повысило кредитный рейтинг Positive Technologies до AA(RU) с прогнозом «Стабильный», что связано с улучшением финансовых показателей и снижением долговой нагрузки. Ожидается, что отгрузки компании за 2026 год составят 40-45 млрд. руб. При этом компания активно развивает новые технологии и продукты, что повышает её инвестиционную привлекательность. |
| 23.09.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора Кредитный рейтинг ПАО «Группа Позитив» изменен с АА-(RU) (прогноз «позитивный») на АА(RU) (прогноз «стабильный») 23 сентября 2026 года. Рейтинг присвоен Аналитическим Кредитным Рейтинговым Агентством. |
| 11.06.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора 11 июня 2026 года рейтинговое агентство «Эксперт РА» присвоило кредитный рейтинг ruAA облигациям ПАО «Группа Позитив». Облигации относятся к сериям 001Р-01 и 001Р-02, размещенным в рамках Программы биржевых облигаций. Рейтинг подтверждает надежность эмитента и его ценных бумаг. |
| 19.05.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО «Группа Позитив», состоявшемся 19 мая 2026 года, было принято решение не распределять чистую прибыль за 2025 год и не выплачивать дивиденды. Также утверждены новые размеры вознаграждения для членов Совета директоров, включая 4,6 млн. руб. для независимых директоров и 920 тыс. руб. для председателя Комитета Совета директоров. |
| 11.09.26 | Buyback | Приобретение голосующих акций другого акционерного общества ПАО «Группа Позитив» приобрело 32,86% голосующих акций АО «Сайбер ОК», увеличив свою долю участия в уставном капитале с 0% до 32,86%. Сделка состоялась 10.09.2026. |
| 20.07.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «Группа Позитив» назначил Дениса Баранова Генеральным директором на новый срок с 30 июля 2026 года. Все решения были приняты единогласно. В 2025 году была положительно оценена работа Службы внутреннего аудита и управления рисками. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Positive — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iПозитивР2 | float | float | 100.60 | +0.07% | 192K | 3.1M | 12.2026 |
| iПозитивР1 | float | float | 100.46 | +0.12% | 2.0M | 6.6M | 07.2027 |
| iПозитивР3 | 15.9% | 18% | 104.19 | -0.29% | 9.5M | 18.3M | 04.2028 |
| ПозитивР4 | float | float | 100.43 | -0.02% | 298K | 3.0M | 02.2029 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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