Positive: Q2 revenue up 38.9%, but profit near zero – development and marketing costs eat the gains

27 июля 2026 года ПАО Позитив раскрыло результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 38,9% год к году, до 6 127,5 млн руб., EBITDA составила 1 007,1 млн руб. (маржа 16,4%), а чистая прибыль – всего 24,2 млн руб. (маржа 0,4%). Обзор покажет, что рост выручки не конвертируется в прибыль из-за высоких операционных расходов, а оценка акций остаётся ниже исторических уровней.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew 38.9% driven by licenses and hardware-software complexes

— EBITDA margin of 16.4% – a marked improvement from negative margin a year ago, but operating profit is minimal

— Net profit of RUB 24.2 million – nearly zero due to high development and marketing costs

— Debt burden: net debt of RUB 13,057.3 million, net debt/EBITDA LTM at 1.23

— Valuation: EV/EBITDAC of 9.25 – well below the three-year average of 15.5

— No dividends paid, model implies zero payouts

Key figures, RUB bn

Q2 revenue grew 38.9% driven by licenses and hardware-software complexes

In Q2 2026, Positive's revenue reached RUB 6,127.5 million, up 38.9% year-on-year. The main contributors were IT product licenses – RUB 4,507.7 million – and hardware-software complexes – RUB 793.5 million. Information security services revenue grew to RUB 820.8 million.

For H1 2026, revenue reached RUB 9,541.5 million, up 41.2% from RUB 6,757.0 million in H1 2025. Growth accelerated compared to Q1 (+45.6% YoY), but Q2 is traditionally weaker than Q4 due to customer budgeting seasonality.

EBITDA margin of 16.4% – a marked improvement from negative margin a year ago, but operating profit is minimal

Q2 EBITDA was RUB 1,007.1 million, yielding a margin of 16.4% versus -20.4% a year earlier. This is a significant improvement, but operating profit was only RUB 144.4 million – amortization of internally generated intangible assets was RUB 652.7 million for the quarter.

Over the last twelve months, EBITDA reached RUB 17,277.5 million, but this includes a strong Q4 2025 (RUB 14,223.0 million). Excluding capitalized development costs, EBITDAC LTM is RUB 8,615.7 million, which more realistically reflects operating efficiency.

Net profit of RUB 24.2 million – nearly zero due to high development and marketing costs

Q2 net profit was only RUB 24.2 million (margin 0.4%) versus a loss of RUB 2,242.4 million a year earlier. The main reason is operating expenses of RUB 4,594.0 million, including R&D (RUB 1,101.6 million) and selling expenses (RUB 1,588.1 million).

For H1 2026, net loss was RUB 1,364.2 million, better than the RUB 5,016.6 million loss in H1 2025. The company remains loss-making on a half-year basis, reflecting seasonality and high development investments.

Debt burden: net debt of RUB 13,057.3 million, net debt/EBITDA LTM at 1.23

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at RUB 13,057.3 million, up RUB 6.1 billion from the previous reporting date, but down RUB 5.4 billion over the last 12 months. Net debt to EBITDA LTM ratio is 1.23.

Operating cash flow for H1 2026 was RUB 13,649.6 million, significantly higher than RUB 5,476.9 million in H1 2025. However, the company spent RUB 3,609.8 million on creating intangible assets and RUB 82.3 million on property, plant and equipment, and paid dividends of RUB 1,999.7 million.

Valuation: EV/EBITDAC of 9.25 – well below the three-year average of 15.5

Positive's market capitalization is RUB 66,627.8 million. EV/EBITDAC LTM is 9.25, well below the three-year average of 15.5. This indicates the market values the company at a discount to its own history.

P/E LTM is 6.1, EV/EBITDA LTM is 5.1. However, EBITDA is inflated by capitalized development, so EV/EBITDAC is more appropriate. Shares rose 5.8% on the release day, but by August 17, 2026, they were down 3.9% from the post-release level.

No dividends paid, model implies zero payouts

Over the last 12 months, Positive has not paid dividends, and our model estimates the next payout at RUB 0.0 per share. With a fair yield of 7.0% and a payout ratio of 0.64 of profit, the company is not yet generating enough profit for payouts.

The cash flow statement for H1 2026 shows dividends paid to shareholders of RUB 1,999.7 million – likely payments for the previous period. The dividend policy question remains open.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q2 2026, Positive showed strong revenue growth (+38.9% YoY) and significant improvement in EBITDA margin, but net profit remained nearly zero due to high operating expenses. The half-year result is still loss-making, reflecting seasonality and development investments. The stock valuation (EV/EBITDAC 9.25) is below its historical average, offering potential but requiring confirmation of the company's ability to control costs. The key question for shareholders is when revenue growth will start generating real profit and cash flow.