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CF Industries USD

Update

Re-runs extraction for each period with period-end year from max(2023, current year − 2) through the current year, oldest first (up to three reporting years). This can take a long time.

Sector: Fertilizers

Geography: United States, Canada, United Kingdom

COMM_CF

Price chart

109.48 USDDay 2.74%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
109.48 USD · 2.74%
Market cap
17.8 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
19.4%
Δ EBITDA y/y
61.4%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
8.4x
3y avg: 7.8x
P/B (FY)
3.7x
P/E (ann.)
6.6x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
5.3x
3y avg: 4.9x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
4.4x

Cash return

Dividend yield
1.8%
FCF yield (LTM)
9.9%

Value creation

to fair market cap at the current EV/EBITDA
Upside (potential)
+20.8%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
272.9 mln USD

Shares: yahoo_fundamentals_timeseries/CF

🔍 Sanity check — subtotal consistency (Level-1 + Level-2) OK: 3 / Warn: 6 / Err: 7 / Autofix applied: 0
Port of PHP subtotal-total + sign-flip detection logic
PeriodIssues
2023-03-31 Q1⚠Warn 1
2023-06-30 Q2⚠Warn 2
2023-09-30 Q3⚠Warn 2
2023-12-31 FY⚠Warn 1
2023-12-31 Q4✓OK
2024-03-31 Q1⚠Warn 1
2024-06-30 Q2⚠Warn 1
2024-09-30 Q3✗Errors 1Warn 1
2024-12-31 FY✗Errors 1Warn 1
2024-12-31 Q4✓OK
2025-03-31 Q1✗Errors 1Warn 1
2025-06-30 Q2✗Errors 1Warn 1
2025-09-30 Q3✗Errors 1Warn 1
2025-12-31 FY✗Errors 1Warn 1
2025-12-31 Q4✓OK
2026-03-31 Q1✗Errors 1Warn 1
✓ All checks pass · ⚠ Has warnings (review) · ✗ Has errors (needs fix) · ✓* Autofix applied (see evidence)

Financial dynamics

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK1986.0
y/y 19.4%
863.0
y/y 89.7%
228.0
y/y 3.2%
1091.0
y/y 61.4%
676.0
y/y 92.6%
496.0-223.014608.0
y/y 9.8%
5342.0
y/y 11.8%
53.1%1281.0Link
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK1872.0
y/y 22.8%
617.0
y/y 39.9%
228.0
y/y 3.2%
845.0
y/y 27.6%
495.0
y/y 26.3%
539.0-226.014088.0
y/y 4.6%
4838.0
y/y -2.9%
37.1%1343.0Link
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK1659.0
y/y 21.1%
580.0
y/y 59.3%
217.0
y/y -5.2%
797.0
y/y 34.4%
460.0
y/y 34.9%
1064.0-347.014203.0
y/y 2.6%
4849.0
y/y -6.6%
12.5%1244.0Link
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK1890.0
y/y 20.2%
648.0
y/y 1.6%
232.0
y/y 4.5%
880.0
y/y 2.3%
492.0
y/y -2.8%
563.0-245.013750.0
y/y -0.2%
4963.0
y/y -9.1%
40.4%1385.0Link
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK1663.0
y/y 13.1%
455.0
y/y 50.2%
221.0
y/y -12.6%
676.0
y/y 21.6%
351.0
y/y 47.5%
586.0-132.013308.0
y/y -4.0%
4780.0
y/y -12.1%
28.8%1658.0Link
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK1524.0
y/y -3.0%
441.0
y/y 3.5%
221.0
y/y -3.5%
662.0
y/y 1.1%
392.0
y/y 11.4%
420.0-197.013466.0
y/y -6.3%
4985.0
y/y -12.8%
29.0%1443.0Link
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK1370.0
y/y 7.6%
364.0
y/y 49.2%
229.0
y/y 7.5%
593.0
y/y 29.8%
341.0
y/y 48.3%
931.0-139.013843.0
y/y 2.2%
5194.0
y/y -9.2%
8.5%1179.0Link
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK1572.0
y/y -11.4%
638.0
y/y -13.1%
222.0
y/y 0.5%
860.0
y/y -9.9%
506.0
y/y -16.5%
475.0-84.013775.0
y/y 1.8%
5460.0
y/y -5.9%
37.1%1229.0Link
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK1470.0
y/y -26.9%
303.0
y/y -63.3%
253.0
y/y 22.8%
556.0
y/y -46.1%
238.0
y/y -63.4%
445.0-98.013861.0
y/y 3.5%
5440.0
y/y -0.2%
17.1%1273.0Link
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK1571.0
y/y —
426.0
y/y —
229.0
y/y —
655.0
y/y —
352.0
y/y —
480.0-188.014376.0
y/y —
5717.0
y/y —
32.1%1032.0Link
2023-09-30Q3 2023 (3M)OK1273.0
y/y —
244.0
y/y —
213.0
y/y —
457.0
y/y —
230.0
y/y —
618.0-147.013543.0
y/y —
5723.0
y/y —
5.3%-186.0Link
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK1775.0
y/y —
734.0
y/y —
221.0
y/y —
955.0
y/y —
606.0
y/y —
712.0-95.013537.0
y/y —
5804.0
y/y —
43.1%-152.0Link
2023-03-31Q1 2023 (3M)OK2012.0
y/y —
826.0
y/y —
206.0
y/y —
1032.0
y/y —
650.0
y/y —
947.0-69.013398.0
y/y —
5453.0
y/y —
—245.0Link
Data quality No obvious scale, balance-sheet, or cash-flow sanity issues in the displayed periods.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Annual production
19 057 thousand tons
2025

Production, thousand tons

19 130202318 943202419 0572025

Production

YearProduction, thousand tons
202519 057
+0.6%
202418 943
−1.0%
202319 130

SEC 10-K (CIK 1324404) via DeepSeek; CF primary-product production & reserves.

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

05001 0001 5002 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Year-over-year change

-50%0%50%2023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-1 000-50005001 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Key-commodity price — Ammonia (Black Sea)

Current 326spot vs LTM -2%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: +20.8%

Main driver: Ammonia (Black Sea) -2% vs LTM; revenue ×1.24 vs costs ×0.99; EBITDA 3 613→4 766; at 4.8× EV/EBITDA → +21%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Henry Hub Gas (cost)-36%3.153.533.09-11%-12%
Ammonia (Black Sea) (rev)+31%325.69333.28402.13-2%+21%
UAN (Black Sea) (rev)+30%500.00300.98324.73+66%+8%
Urea (FOB China) (rev)+25%492.50441.63377.33+12%-15%
AN (Black Sea) (rev)+6%677.08535.12571.34+27%+7%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue7 407
LTM EBITDA3 613
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)3 794
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.239 (+24%)
= Spot revenue9 179
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.055 (+5%)
= 3-year-price revenue7 814
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×0.986 (-1%)
= Spot cash costs3 742
Cost multiplier — 3y price×0.980 (-2%)
= 3-year-price cash costs3 719
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA5 437
= 3-year-price EBITDA4 095
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)4 766
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/projected-EBITDA (3-yr average)4.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA22 700
Net debt1 281
Target market cap = EV − net debt21 402
Current market cap17 722

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +20.8%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 Q21 7751 713+3.6%955740+29.0%
2023 Q31 2731 647-22.7%457719-36.4%
2023 Q41 5711 711-8.2%655801-18.2%
2024 Q11 4701 551-5.2%556725-23.3%
2024 Q21 5721 466+7.2%860610+41.0%
2024 Q31 3701 439-4.8%593616-3.8%
2024 Q41 5241 462+4.2%662545+21.4%
2025 Q11 6631 503+10.6%676498+35.6%
2025 Q21 8901 715+10.2%880791+11.2%
2025 Q31 6591 668-0.5%797750+6.2%
2025 Q41 8721 658+12.9%845644+31.3%
2026 Q11 9862 061-3.7%1 0911 095-0.3%

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 5.1x · target 3-yr avg 4.8x · LTM avg 6.4x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target avg (projected, 3y)

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-05-150.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2026-02-130.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-11-140.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-08-150.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-05-150.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-02-140.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-11-150.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-08-150.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-05-140.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-02-140.5 USDEx-dividend: 0.5 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-11-140.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-08-140.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-05-120.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-02-140.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-11-140.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-08-120.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-05-130.4 USDEx-dividend: 0.4 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-02-140.3 USDEx-dividend: 0.3 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2021-11-120.3 USDEx-dividend: 0.3 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2021-08-130.3 USDEx-dividend: 0.3 USD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)