
Lukoil is Russia's largest private oil company, vertically integrated from exploration and production through refining and petrochemicals to fuel retail in Russia and abroad.
Sector: Oil & Gas
RU_LKOH
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | OK | 2059.3 y/y 8.0% | 610.9 y/y 150.4% | 204.4 y/y 14.9% | 815.3 y/y 93.3% | 440.1 y/y 387.3% | 790.0 | -239.1 | 5539.3 y/y -28.5% | 3878.0 y/y -30.9% | 23.5% | -378.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 1860.2 y/y — | 282.6 y/y — | 187.6 y/y — | 470.2 y/y — | 6.4 y/y — | 703.0 | -387.9 | 5474.4 y/y -41.0% | 3626.5 y/y -47.4% | 2.1% | -278.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 1907.6 y/y — | 244.0 y/y — | 177.8 y/y — | 421.9 y/y — | 90.3 y/y — | 711.6 | -386.6 | 7750.7 y/y — | 5614.7 y/y — | 2.9% | -231.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | OK | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — y/y — | — | — | 9282.6 y/y — | 6892.0 y/y — | 11.9% | -1146.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 4333.6 y/y 20.2% | 694.2 y/y 13.5% | 290.6 y/y 12.3% | 984.8 y/y 13.1% | 591.5 y/y 4.6% | 782.3 | -326.8 | 8619.4 y/y 9.0% | 6499.9 y/y 7.6% | 18.3% | -867.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 4321.8 y/y — | 815.9 y/y — | 318.6 y/y — | 1134.5 y/y — | 594.8 y/y — | 1064.4 | -381.4 | 8600.2 y/y — | 6401.2 y/y — | 18.7% | -857.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 3606.5 y/y — | 611.8 y/y — | 258.7 y/y — | 870.5 y/y — | 565.4 y/y — | 759.9 | -339.0 | 7907.3 y/y — | 6038.6 y/y — | — | -640.8 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 81 987 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 236 713 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 697 649 |
| Net debt | -378 949 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.3x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2019 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.79x | 46.69x | 1.57x | 2.25x | 14.63x |
| accruals, % of assets | -8.6% | -12.7% | -7.7% | -10.7% | -24.1% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Oil & gas (SEC proved; disclosure frozen at end-2021)
| Year | Reserves, mmboe |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 700 |
| 2021 | 15 300 |
| Year | Production, mmboe | per day, mmboe |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 666 −2.2% | 1.82 |
| 2024 | 681 | 1.87 |
| 2021 | 789 | 2.16 |
ЛУКОЙЛ: SEC proved 15.3 млрд бнэ на 31.12.2021 (76% жидкие) - последний опубликованный аудит (lukoil.ru пресс-релиз); добыча 2021 = 2,163 kboe/d без Западной Курны-2 x365 = ~789 mmboe (релиз МСФО FY2021). Новее абсолютных цифр не публикуется; компания указывала обеспеченность ~18 лет на конец 2022. Fresher points (Lukoil FY2025 results, group basis excl. West Qurna-2, rebased like-for-like): SEC proved ~14.7 bn boe (2024); production 1,824 kboe/d = ~666 mmboe FY2025, ~681 mmboe FY2024.
Current 100spot vs LTM +66%
Oil model, two legs: crude and refining. Russian liquids production × Δ(Urals in RUB) gives the crude leg, Russian refinery throughput × Δ(export crack in RUB) the second; volumes from company disclosure. In the spot scenario Brent follows the futures curve and the excess refining margin decays with a 9-month half-life; base prices cover the same period as base EBITDA. Urals is the official price (Ministry of Economic Development, Argus quotes), not Brent minus a fixed spread. The coefficients (30% and 80%) are estimated on a six-company panel, not assumed from the tax rate. Then conservative EBITDA (min spot/avg) → target market cap at the 3-year median EV/EBITDA. The re-rating is suppressed when the multiple fell because EBITDA grew rather than because the price fell — otherwise the earnings growth would be counted twice.
USD/RUB: spot 82 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.04 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): +6% · spot +28% · 3-yr -17%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 3.92 trn RUB |
| EBITDA | 1.29 trn RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 2.63 trn RUB |
| 2 · Urals oil price ($/bbl) | |
| Spot | $94.4 |
| LTM average | $60.0 |
| 3-yr average | $65.2 |
| Price source | Минэк 2024-05…2026-09 (29 мес.); до 2024-05 — оценка по медиане дисконта 10.89 $ |
| Brent now (for reference) | $104.5 |
| Brent in spot scenario: 12-mo futures average | $98.3 |
| Urals in RUB per bbl — spot / LTM / 3-yr | 7,925 RUB / 4,669 RUB / 5,569 RUB |
| 3 · Export crack (RUB per bbl of throughput) | |
| Spot / LTM / 3-yr | 6,827 RUB / 3,447 RUB / 3,490 RUB |
| Spot scenario: 12-mo average, excess margin decays with 9-mo half-life | 5,668 RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection: two legs | |
| Liquids production in Russia, mln bbl/yr · жидкие РФ: факт 2025, Россия (Интерфакс, Neftegaz.RU) | 549 |
| Refining throughput in Russia, mln t/yr | 42 |
| Coefficients: crude / crack (panel-estimated) | 30% / 80% |
| Crude leg — spot | 451.3 bln RUB |
| Refining leg — spot | 542.9 bln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — spot | 994.2 bln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — 3-yr | 158.6 bln RUB |
| = Spot EBITDA (LTM + effect) | 2.28 trn RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 1.44 trn RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 1.86 trn RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 1.86 trn RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 1.9x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 3.63 trn RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | -131.1 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 3.76 trn RUB |
| Current market cap | 3.56 trn RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +6%
Current 2.5x · 3-year 75th pct 3.4x
Group: Oil & Gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aker BP | global | 25.5 | 3.1x | 1.5x |
| Occidental Petroleum | global | 62.0 | 5.2x | 2.5x |
| Gazprom | Russia | 32.0 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Rosneft | Russia | 49.0 | 3.3x | 3.3x |
| ConocoPhillips | global | 182.7 | 7.4x | 3.6x |
| Tatneft | Russia | 17.5 | 3.9x | 3.9x |
| Gazprom Neft | Russia | 32.5 | 4.2x | 4.2x |
| Chevron | global | 418.8 | 8.6x | 4.2x |
| Whitecap Resources | global | 17.4 | 9.1x | 4.5x |
| Santos | Australia | 20.9 | 9.6x | 4.5x |
| Exxon Mobil | global | 743.3 | 10.5x | 5.1x |
| Novatek | Russia | 42.5 | 8.6x | 8.6x |
| Group median | 6.3x | 4.1x | ||
| Group average | 6.4x | 4.1x | ||
| This company | Russia | 42.9 | 2.5x | 2.5x |
Group median 6.3x as traded, 4.1x adjusted; this company 2.5x — a 39% discount.
Group average 6.4x as traded, 4.1x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 39% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +58% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.7x, Russia 3.9x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 4.6x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 4.9x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-21; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: +1%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | 446 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 79% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage -0.0x) | 640 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 675.00 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 675.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -2.9 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 11.1% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 6083 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 11.1% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 6172 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
Expected IRR: +21% (bear -3% … bull +46%)
price in 3 years 6 367 ₽ (+5% к 6 074 ₽); dividends along the way 3 583 ₽ (+59% цены); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.92 trn | 4.70 trn | 4.73 trn | 4.75 trn |
| Revenue growth | — | +20% | +1% | +0% |
| EBITDA | 1.29 trn | 1.58 trn | 1.58 trn | 1.57 trn |
| EBITDA margin | 32.8% | 33.6% | 33.4% | 33.1% |
| less D&A | 392.0 bn | 437.1 bn | 438.8 bn | 439.8 bn |
| EBIT | 893.6 bn | 1.14 trn | 1.14 trn | 1.13 trn |
| less net interest | -42.7 bn for 2023 | -31.3 bn | -41.0 bn | -42.2 bn |
| less tax | 229.1 bn for 2023 | 293.5 bn | 295.3 bn | 294.1 bn |
| Net profit | — | 880.5 bn | 885.9 bn | 882.2 bn |
| Capex | 627.1 bn | 654.3 bn | 658.6 bn | 661.2 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 16.0% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| Free cash flow | 865.9 bn operating cash flow less capex | 862.3 bn | 865.9 bn | 859.0 bn |
| Net debt | -131.1 bn | -608.5 bn | -738.4 bn | -867.2 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | -0.1x | -0.4x | -0.5x | -0.6x |
| Dividend per share | 675 ₽ | 1 080 ₽ | 1 256 ₽ | 1 246 ₽ |
| Yield on current price | 11.1% | 17.8% | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Related-market prices (Oil & Gas) Нефть Urals (Brent − дисконт Минэка) 85% → +75%; FX ×1.038; 90% of costs follow price EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс; Urals = Brent − дисконт Минэка | 49% | +20% · -1% · -1% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY -15%; acceleration +29.5pp годовая выручка г/г (growth_acceleration) | 11% | -2% · +2% · +4% |
| Analyst forecast of financial results (Консенсус, houses: 7) Терминал «Андромеда» (АО «Эйлер Аналитические Технологии»), модуль FA, источник «Консенсус», выгрузка 15.09.2026. Дата обновления прогноза в терминале — плейсхолдер 01.01.2100, поэтому свежесть консенсуса не подтверждена | 40% | +13% · +10% · +9% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 1.82x (1.50x…2.66x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 2.7x, three-year median 1.8x). Re-rating to 2.7x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 15 053 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 77% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 85% of free cash flow, capped by cash flow |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | no flags: the dividend has not faded against profit, payouts were not suspended, no audit qualification and no manual penalty — quality multiplier 1.00 |
| Line | model | analysts | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Консенсус, houses: 7.0 · blended from 50% 2026 + 50% 2027 | |||
| Revenue | 4.70 trn | 4.43 trn | 1.06x |
| EBITDA | 1.58 trn | 1.24 trn | 1.27x |
| Net profit | 880.5 bn | 582.3 bn | 1.51x |
| 2028 Консенсус, houses: 3.0 · blended from 50% 2027 + 50% 2028 | |||
| Revenue | 4.73 trn | 4.49 trn | 1.05x |
| EBITDA | 1.58 trn | 1.24 trn | 1.28x |
| Net profit | 885.9 bn | 582.2 bn | 1.52x |
The comparison runs on financial results, not target prices: a target depends on the multiple and horizon, while revenue and EBITDA forecasts compare directly.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 5 696 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 3 632 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 6 172 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 6 413 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 5 943 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 675.00 RUB/sh · 11.1%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1210.00 ₽ | |
| 2025 | 541.00 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 1012.00 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 885.00 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 793.00 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 553.00 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 396.00 ₽ | |
| 2019 | 347.00 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q4 | 2026-12-08 | 535.00 ₽ |
| 2026 q2 | 2026-05-01 | 278.00 ₽ |
| 2026 q1 | 2026-01-09 | 397.00 ₽ |
| 2025 q2 | 2025-06-02 | 541.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q4 | 2024-12-16 | 514.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q2 | 2024-05-06 | 498.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-12-14 | 447.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q2 | 2023-06-01 | 438.00 ₽ |
| 2022 q4 | 2022-12-19 | 793.00 ₽ |
| 2021 q4 | 2021-12-17 | 340.00 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 48% buy — balanced5d: 49% buy — balanced20d: 50% buy — balanced
No iceberg levels detected last session.
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 6 bid / 7 ask; largest — ask 16 lots ×444 appearances across 141 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×412, ask ×368.
| Day | Buyer initiative | Icebergs bid/ask | Robots bid/ask | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10 | 48% | 0/0 | 6/7 | 26,405 |
| 20.10 | 56% | 1/2 | 4/3 | 29,289 |
| 19.10 | 44% | 1/1 | 8/6 | 26,032 |
| 16.10 | 48% | 1/2 | 9/7 | 24,671 |
| 15.10 | 49% | 1/0 | 6/10 | 27,985 |
Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 2 (1 positive), last 30 days: 22 (17 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 19 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 09.10.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО «ЛУКОЙЛ» принял решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 535 руб. на акцию по результатам девяти месяцев 2026 года, которые будут выплачены не позднее 22 декабря 2026 года. Также утверждены изменения условий договора с регистратором. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Disclosed in the top-10 of 12 of 17 funds, ≈10,3 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 5, entered top-10 — 1, left top-10 — 1.
| Fund | Manager | Weight | ≈Position | Δ weight m/m | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQMX ВИМ - Индекс МосБиржи | ВИМ Инвестиции | 17.04% | 2,3 млрд ₽ | +0.93 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акций | Первая | 16.99% | 3,5 млрд ₽ | +1.26 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржи | Т-Капитал | 16.87% | 2,5 млрд ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| AMRE АТОН – Российские акции + | Атон-менеджмент | 9.79% | 85 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынка | Брокеркредитсервис | 9.00% | 31 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| AKIE Альфа-Капитал Управляемые акции с выплатой дохода | Альфа-Капитал | 7.96% | 29 млн ₽ | +2.34 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| AKME Альфа-Капитал Управляемые акции (new) | Альфа-Капитал | 7.63% | 1,1 млрд ₽ | +7.63 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акций | ДОХОДЪ | 7.34% | 75 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035 | Первая | 6.91% | 9 млн ₽ | +0.56 pp | 31.08.2026 |
| TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рублях | Т-Капитал | 4.15% | 754 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестиции | Первая | 3.94% | 6 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| SCFT Технологии будущего | Доверительная | 3.75% | 0 млн ₽ | — | 31.08.2026 |
| TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акции | Т-Капитал | left top-10 (was 7.44%) | 31.08.2026 | ||
Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Lukoil (LKOH) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ЛУКОЙЛ 26 | — | 4.75% | 100.24 | +0.65% | 2.1M | 17.3M | 11.2026 |
| ЛУКОЙЛ 27 | 8.6% | 2.8% | 97.20 | +0.00% | 6.8M | 8.9M | 04.2027 |
| ЛУКОЙЛ 30 | 8.2% | 3.875% | 86.95 | +0.72% | 783K | 170.5M | 05.2030 |
| ЛУКОЙЛ 31 | 8.2% | 3.6% | 81.79 | +0.09% | 88.0M | 14.7M | 10.2031 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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