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Novatek USD

Update

Re-runs extraction for each period with period-end year from max(2023, current year − 2) through the current year, oldest first (up to three reporting years). This can take a long time.

Sector: Oil & Gas

RU_NVTK

Price chart

1 039.2 RUBDay 0.34%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
1 039.2 RUB · 0.34%
Market cap
44.3 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-19.2%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-3.1%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
17.0x
3y avg: 11.6x
P/B (FY)
1.1x
P/E (ann.)
<0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
3.4x
3y avg: 20.2x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
3.8x

Cash return

Dividend yield
7.3%
FCF yield (LTM)
236.0%

Value creation

to fair market cap at the current EV/EBITDA
Upside (potential)
+13.0%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
83 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

🔍 Sanity check — subtotal consistency (Level-1 + Level-2) OK: 1 / Warn: 4 / Err: 2 / Autofix applied: 0
Port of PHP subtotal-total + sign-flip detection logic
PeriodIssues
2023-12-31 FY✓OK
2024-06-30 H1⚠Warn 1
2024-12-31 FY⚠Warn 1
2024-12-31 H2⚠Warn 2
2025-06-30 H1✗Errors 1Warn 1
2025-12-31 FY⚠Warn 2
2025-12-31 H2✗Errors 1Warn 2
✓ All checks pass · ⚠ Has warnings (review) · ✗ Has errors (needs fix) · ✓* Autofix applied (see evidence)

Financial dynamics

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK9.0
y/y -19.2%
1.8
y/y -4.7%
0.7
y/y 1.3%
2.4
y/y -3.3%
-0.6
y/y -126.7%
4.3-0.850.3
y/y -4.1%
39.9
y/y -0.2%
6.4%-25.6Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK11.3
y/y 6.9%
2.2
y/y -19.5%
0.8
y/y 34.0%
3.0
y/y -9.4%
3.2
y/y -34.2%
2.7-1.053.3
y/y —
41.7
y/y 5.4%
15.6%121.1Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK11.1
y/y —
1.9
y/y —
0.7
y/y —
2.5
y/y —
2.2
y/y —
2.5136.052.5
y/y 16.2%
39.9
y/y 9.3%
17.6%152.7Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)PARTIAL10.6
y/y —
2.7
y/y —
0.6
y/y —
3.3
y/y —
4.8
y/y —
2.6-139.7—
y/y —
39.6
y/y —
25.5%242.1Report (PDF)
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK19.2
y/y —
5.1
y/y —
1.1
y/y —
6.2
y/y —
6.6
y/y —
6.1-201.045.1
y/y —
36.5
y/y —
—78.8Report (PDF)
Data quality — review suggested

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNatural gas production
млрд м3		Liquid hydrocarbons
млн т		Total hydrocarbons
млн бнэ		Gas sales (incl. LNG)
млрд м3
FY 2025-1284.57
+0.6%		14.11
+2.2%		673
+0.9%		76.60
−1.5%
FY 2024-1284.0813.8066777.76

НОВАТЭК, предв. операционные данные за 2025 г. (novatek.ru, 20 янв. 2026): добыча углеводородов 673 млн бнэ (+0,9% г/г), в т.ч. природный газ 84,57 млрд м3, жидкие углеводороды 14,11 млн т; реализация газа (вкл. СПГ) 76,6 млрд м3 (-1,5%), реализация ЖУВ 17,9 млн т (+8,9%). 2024 г.: 667 млн бнэ, газ 84,08, ЖУВ 13,8, продажи газа 77,76.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Oil & Gas (gas/liquids)

Proved reserves
17 506 mln boe
2024
Reserve life (R/P)
26.0 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
673 mln boe
2025

Production, mln boe

66720246732025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mln boe
202417 506

Production

YearProduction, mln boe
2025673
+0.9%
2024667

Novatek FY2025 preliminary operating data (novatek.ru, 20 Jan 2026): 673 mmboe (+0.9% YoY; 84.57 bcm gas + 14.11 Mt liquids). FY2024 667 mmboe. SEC proved reserves 17,506 mmboe at 31 Dec 2024.

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

02 5005 0007 50010 00012 5002024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Year-over-year change

-20%-10%0%10%2024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-1 00001 0002 0003 0004 0002024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

-100 0000100 000200 0002023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY

Key-commodity price — LNG

Current 14spot vs LTM +26%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the current EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 72 vs LTM-avg 80 → ×0.90 (ruble stronger → less RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). Oil & gas upside may be overstated: mineral-extraction tax / export duty rise with price but costs are not re-priced here.

Upside (conservative): +13% · spot +32% · 3-yr -5%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.45 trn RUB
EBITDA388.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1.06 trn RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.12 (+12%)
= Spot revenue1.62 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.02 (+2%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.48 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs1.11 trn RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA511.6 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA366.7 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2439.1 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))439.1 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (current)8.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA3.85 trn RUB
Net debt-25.6 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt3.88 trn RUB
Current market cap3.43 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +13%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
LNG45%14.0211.09+26%+14%+1%
Brent35%89.0969.09+29%+17%+5%

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -28%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)186 bn RUB
Payout ratio47%
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)82.73 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share82.73 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.5%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-9.4 pp
= Fair dividend yield11.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price1039.50 ₽
Forecast dividend yield8.0%
Fair price (dividend-based)752 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=225

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)