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Novatek (NVTK) RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Net cash balance sheet✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 7.1 vs avg 9.0)✗Revenue declining (-6%)✗Profit falling (-63%)

Sector: Oil & Gas

RU_NVTK

Price chart

945.1 RUBDay -0.07%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
945.1 RUB · -0.07%
Market cap
2869.6 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
4.0%
Δ EBITDA y/y
5.3%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
16.0x
3y avg: 11.6x
P/B (FY)
1.0x
P/E (ann.)
6.5x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
7.1x
3y avg: 9.0x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
6.2x

Cash return

Dividend yield
7.3%
FCF yield (LTM)
5.3%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+107.4%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
2 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK836.3
y/y 4.0%
170.7
y/y 10.1%
55.4
y/y -7.1%
226.1
y/y 5.3%
221.0
y/y -2.8%
172.2-43.93715.4
y/y -2.2%
2922.1
y/y -1.8%
15.3%-43.5Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK641.3
y/y -19.2%
126.0
y/y -4.7%
47.5
y/y 1.3%
173.5
y/y -3.3%
-41.3
y/y -126.7%
307.6-58.03589.1
y/y -4.1%
2842.3
y/y -0.2%
6.4%-39.3Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK804.3
y/y 6.9%
155.0
y/y -19.5%
59.6
y/y 34.0%
214.6
y/y -9.4%
227.3
y/y -34.2%
195.7-70.93800.4
y/y 5.0%
2974.4
y/y 5.4%
15.6%108.4Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK793.4
y/y —
132.1
y/y —
46.9
y/y —
179.3
y/y —
154.8
y/y —
174.7-121.03740.8
y/y 16.2%
2848.0
y/y 9.3%
17.6%141.6Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK752.4
y/y —
192.7
y/y —
44.5
y/y —
236.9
y/y —
345.4
y/y —
182.4-139.73620.9
y/y —
2821.3
y/y —
25.5%242.1Report (PDF)
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK1371.5
y/y —
367.1
y/y —
75.3
y/y —
442.5
y/y —
469.5
y/y —
433.3-201.03219.2
y/y —
2605.6
y/y —
—66.7Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)53 145
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)215 009
− Cash & equivalents311 665
Net debt-43 511

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

0500 0001 000 0001 500 0002023 FY2024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-20%-10%0%10%2023 FY2024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-100 0000100 000200 0002023 FY2024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

-100 0000100 000200 0002023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit is broadly cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.92x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.52x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.93x0.92x0.92x0.71x2.71x
accruals, % of assets1.3%—1.1%3.8%-8.8%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 1.58x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA -0.1x · capex 0.9x of depreciation
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodNatural gas production
млрд м3		Liquid hydrocarbons
млн т		Total hydrocarbons
млн бнэ		Gas sales (incl. LNG)
млрд м3
FY 2025-1284.57
+0.6%		14.11
+2.2%		673
+0.9%		76.60
−1.5%
FY 2024-1284.0813.8066777.76

НОВАТЭК, предв. операционные данные за 2025 г. (novatek.ru, 20 янв. 2026): добыча углеводородов 673 млн бнэ (+0,9% г/г), в т.ч. природный газ 84,57 млрд м3, жидкие углеводороды 14,11 млн т; реализация газа (вкл. СПГ) 76,6 млрд м3 (-1,5%), реализация ЖУВ 17,9 млн т (+8,9%). 2024 г.: 667 млн бнэ, газ 84,08, ЖУВ 13,8, продажи газа 77,76.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Natural gas + liquids (Yamal; SEC proved reserves)

Proved reserves
16 974 mmboe
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
25.2 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
673 mmboe
2025

Production, mmboe

66720246732025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mmboe
202516 974
202417 506

Production

YearProduction, mmboeper day, mmboe
2025673
+0.9%		1.84
20246671.83

НОВАТЭК: SEC proved reserves 31.12.2025 = 16,974 mmboe (2,354 bcm gas + 182 mln t liquids), novatek.ru/ru/about/operational-activities/reserves/; добыча 2025 = 673 mmboe (84.57 bcm газа + 14.11 mln t жидких УВ), релиз 20.01.2026 novatek.ru id_4=7511. Prior year: SEC proved 17,506 mmboe at 31.12.2024; FY2024 production 667 mmboe (novatek.ru FY2025 preliminary operating data, 20.01.2026).

Key-commodity price — LNG

Current 18spot vs LTM +58%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 84 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.07 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). Oil & gas upside may be overstated: mineral-extraction tax / export duty rise with price but costs are not re-priced here.

Upside (conservative): +107% · spot +161% · 3-yr +54%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.45 trn RUB
EBITDA388.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1.06 trn RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.47 (+47%)
= Spot revenue2.13 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.18 (+18%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.71 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs1.11 trn RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA1.02 trn RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA599.5 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2808.1 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))808.1 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)8.8x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA7.08 trn RUB
Net debt-25.6 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt7.11 trn RUB
Current market cap3.43 trn RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +107%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
LNG45%17.6111.15+58%+68%+21%
Brent35%93.9368.17+38%+47%+26%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -6% vs +13% the year before — a -19.2 pp move. 3-year CAGR +2%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +0% · 2024 +13% · 2025 -6%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -12%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)186 bn RUB
Payout ratio55%
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)82.73 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share82.73 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-9.4 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price919 ₽
Forecast dividend yield9.0%
Fair price (dividend-based)809 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 82.73 RUB/sh · 9.0%

Pay yearDividend /sh
202647.23 ₽
202582.15 ₽
202479.59 ₽
202395.08 ₽
202288.77 ₽
202151.41 ₽
202029.92 ₽
201931.04 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2026 q22026-04-1047.23 ₽
2025 q42025-10-0335.50 ₽
2025 q22025-04-2546.65 ₽
2024 q42024-10-1035.50 ₽
2024 q12024-03-2544.09 ₽
2023 q42023-10-0934.50 ₽
2023 q22023-05-0160.58 ₽
2022 q42022-10-0545.00 ₽
2022 q22022-05-0343.77 ₽
2021 q42021-10-0727.67 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Trading microstructure: order book & tape

Share of volume initiated by buyers (crossing the spread):
1d: 52% buy — balanced5d: 48% buy — balanced20d: 48% buy — balanced

Iceberg levels last session: 1 bid / 0 ask; largest — bid 937 (filled ×3.5 of displayed, 22 refills).
Robot clips (recurring characteristic order size): 13 bid / 10 ask; largest — bid 53 lots ×473 appearances across 92 price levels. Ping probes (1-2 lots, typical iceberg hunting): bid ×1152, ask ×962.

DayBuyer initiativeIcebergs bid/askRobots bid/askTrades
21.0852%1/013/1022,649
20.0847%0/28/1128,928
19.0843%1/013/1425,092
18.0848%4/217/1835,633
17.0851%3/128/3052,268

Source: L2 order book + trade tape (TQBR main session, ~23 liquid names). Trade side = the aggressor crossing the spread. Iceberg = level filled a multiple of its displayed size with regular refills. Robot clip = a non-round order size recurring hundreds of times across dozens of price levels (an algo's fingerprint migrating with price); ping = 1-2 lot probe orders. Updated nightly.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 5 (5 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 7 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

13.07.26Material event★ События (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
ПАО «НОВАТЭК» представило предварительные производственные показатели за 2 квартал и первое полугодие 2026 года. Добыча углеводородов во 2 квартале составила 171,5 млн бнэ, увеличившись на 2,3% по сравнению с 2025 годом. Общий объем реализации природного газа за 1 полугодие составил 39,4 млрд куб. м.
18.05.26Filing★ ▲ Проведение заседания совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) и его повестка дня
Совет директоров ПАО «НОВАТЭК» проведет заседание 25 мая 2026 года для обсуждения изменений в программе выкупа глобальных депозитарных расписок, удостоверяющих права на акции компании.
01.04.26Filing★ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента
ПАО «НОВАТЭК» установило дату фиксации лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов за 2025 год по обыкновенным акциям. Дата фиксации - 13 апреля 2026 года. Протокол общего собрания акционеров, на котором принято это решение, датирован 1 апреля 2026 года.
01.04.26AGM / Board★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
1 апреля 2026 года ПАО «НОВАТЭК» проведет годовое общее собрание акционеров, на котором будет утвержден годовой отчет за 2025 год и распределена прибыль, включая дивиденды в размере 47,23 руб. на акцию. Общая сумма дивидендов составит 251,2 млрд. руб.
23.07.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО «НОВАТЭК» утвердил проспект ценных бумаг для размещения биржевых облигаций серии 001Р. Заседание состоялось 21 июля 2026 года, решение было принято единогласно. Облигации будут процентными неконвертируемыми на предъявителя.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 13 of 17 funds, ≈3,4 млрд ₽ combined. Last month: added — 1, entered top-10 — 1.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
AKME Альфа-Капитал Управляемые акцииАльфа-Капитал9.25%1,2 млрд ₽—30.06.2026
AKIE Альфа-Капитал Управляемые акции с выплатой доходаАльфа-Капитал7.94%26 млн ₽—30.06.2026
AMRE АТОН – Российские акции +Атон-менеджмент6.04%41 млн ₽—30.06.2026
DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акцийДОХОДЪ6.02%55 млн ₽—30.06.2026
TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акцииТ-Капитал5.41%27 млн ₽—30.06.2026
TITR Т-Капитал Акции роста (new)Т-Капитал5.24%16 млн ₽+5.24 pp30.06.2026
SBPS Первая – Фонд Моя цель 2035Первая4.72%7 млн ₽—30.06.2026
BCSR БКС Индекс Российского рынкаБрокеркредитсервис4.70%14 млн ₽—30.06.2026
EQMX Индекс МосБиржиВИМ Инвестиции4.11%476 млн ₽—30.06.2026
AKUP Альфа-Капитал Умный портфельАльфа-Капитал4.10%12 млн ₽—30.06.2026
SBMX Первая - Фонд Топ Российских акцийПервая4.08%735 млн ₽—30.06.2026
TMOS Т-Капитал Индекс МосБиржиТ-Капитал4.05%512 млн ₽—30.06.2026
TRUR Т-Капитал – Стратегия вечного портфеля в рубляхТ-Капитал1.42%257 млн ₽—30.06.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=225

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Novatek (NVTK) — from primary filings.

NVTK (Novatek) is a Russian natural gas producer focused on the exploration, production, processing, and sale of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons, primarily operating in the Yamal Peninsula.

Frequently asked questions

What is Novatek (NVTK)'s P/E ratio?
Novatek (NVTK) trades at a P/E of 16.0x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Novatek (NVTK)'s EV/EBITDA?
Novatek (NVTK) trades at 7.1x EV/EBITDA.
What is Novatek (NVTK)'s P/B ratio?
Novatek (NVTK) trades at a P/B of 1.0x.
What is Novatek (NVTK)'s dividend yield?
Novatek (NVTK)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 7.3%.
What is Novatek (NVTK)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Novatek (NVTK)'s ROE is 15.3%.
What is Novatek (NVTK)'s market capitalization?
Novatek (NVTK)'s market cap is 2869.6 bn RUB.

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