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Alrosa (ALRS) RUB

ALROSA is the world's largest rough-diamond miner by volume, operating open-pit, underground and alluvial mines in Yakutia and Arkhangelsk region and selling rough and polished diamonds worldwide.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 5.8 vs avg 7.6)✗Revenue declining (-33% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Profit falling (-101% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Margins compressing (46%→22%, Q2 2026)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Mining

RU_ALRS

Price chart

21.08 RUBDay -0.05%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
21.08 RUB · -0.05%
Market cap
155.3 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-33.2%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-68.7%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
13.5x
3y avg: 15.3x
P/B (FY)
0.4x
P/E (ann.)
<0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
5.8x
3y avg: 7.6x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
7.1x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
-16.2%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-77.0%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
494.3 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK45.4
y/y -33.2%
0.3
y/y -98.4%
9.4
y/y 5.0%
9.8
y/y -68.7%
-0.1
y/y -100.6%
0.9-9.4664.3
y/y -1.3%
397.3
y/y -3.3%
—120.1Report (PDF)
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)PARTIAL44.9
y/y -32.2%
-6.0
y/y -205.2%
10.1
y/y 13.8%
4.1
y/y -72.1%
-9.4
y/y -158.6%
0.9-9.4—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—101.8Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK50.4
y/y 69.2%
3.5
y/y -62.3%
0.4
y/y 0.0%
3.9
y/y -59.7%
3.9
y/y -2.3%
7.8-12.8699.5
y/y 6.2%
406.7
y/y 10.2%
8.9%161.9Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK68.0
y/y 11.8%
22.2
y/y 805.8%
9.0
y/y 26.1%
31.2
y/y 226.3%
24.6
y/y 236.5%
12.4-11.1673.0
y/y 12.3%
410.8
y/y 1.6%
—115.7Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)PARTIAL66.3
y/y —
5.7
y/y —
8.9
y/y —
14.6
y/y —
16.0
y/y —
12.4-11.1—
y/y —
—
y/y —
—84.7Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK29.8
y/y -55.7%
9.4
y/y -58.4%
0.4
y/y -62.3%
9.8
y/y -58.6%
4.0
y/y -79.4%
3.7-15.9658.7
y/y 10.4%
369.0
y/y -3.4%
5.0%115.5Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK60.8
y/y -34.3%
2.5
y/y -93.7%
7.1
y/y 11.5%
9.6
y/y -78.8%
7.3
y/y -73.0%
30.3-11.3599.4
y/y 2.3%
404.2
y/y 6.7%
7.4%86.6Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK67.2
y/y —
22.5
y/y —
1.1
y/y —
23.6
y/y —
19.4
y/y —
14.6-17.2596.6
y/y —
381.9
y/y —
22.4%99.0Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK92.5
y/y —
38.8
y/y —
6.4
y/y —
45.2
y/y —
27.1
y/y —
21.9-12.2586.0
y/y —
378.9
y/y —
—-11.2Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)76 919
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)100 583
− Cash & equivalents57 443
Net debt120 059

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.5x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

020 00040 00060 00080 000100 0002023 q22023 q42024 q22024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-100%0%100%200%300%2023 q22023 q42024 q22024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)

-20 000-10 000010 00020 00030 0002023 q22023 q42024 H12024 H22025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

-50 000050 000100 000150 000200 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Worth a look
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.99x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.03x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.37x0.88x0.77x2.14x0.99x
accruals, % of assets-7.9%2.3%3.2%-3.3%0.1%
net debt / EBITDA 1.3x · EBIT covers interest 0.9x · capex 2.2x of depreciation · dividends 48% of free cash flow
● EBIT covers interest 0.9x.
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Diamonds

Proved reserves
1 108 Mct
2023
Reserve life (R/P)
37.3 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
29.70 Mct
2025

Production, Mct

34.60202333202429.702025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, Mct
20231 108

Production

YearProduction, Mct
202529.70
−10.0%
202433
−4.6%
202334.60

Alrosa FY2025 diamond output 29.7 Mct (-10% YoY; CEO Marinychev, 23 Dec 2025 / TASS / Reuters; low-margin deposits suspended Apr 2025). FY2024 ~33 Mct. Reserves ~1.108 billion carats — largest diamond reserves globally.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −10% (factor 0.90)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Diamond Prices Index

Current 81spot vs LTM -7%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 82 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.05 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): -77% · spot -77% · 3-yr +86%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue191.1 bln RUB
EBITDA34.3 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)156.9 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×0.98 (-2%)
= Spot revenue186.9 bln RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.17 (+17%)
= 3-yr-price revenue224.1 bln RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs164.7 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA22.1 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA59.4 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/240.8 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))22.1 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)6.7x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA149.1 bln RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)113.7 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt35.4 bln RUB
Current market cap153.8 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -77%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Diamond Prices Index100%81.0786.74-7%-2%+17%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth -2% vs -26% the year before — a +24.2 pp move. 3-year CAGR -7%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +9% · 2024 -26% · 2025 -2%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 5.8x · 3-year 75th pct 6.0x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Mining. Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDA
Yuzhuralzoloto GroupRussia2.33.7x
PolyusRussia15.63.8x
NornickelRussia25.05.1x
SeligdarRussia0.65.3x
RusolovoRussia0.217.7x
Group median5.1x
Group average7.1x
This companyRussia2.25.8x

Group median 5.1x; this company 5.8x — a 13% premium.

Group average 7.1x; against the average this company is at a 19% discount. The average sits 39% above the median: Rusolovo (17.7x) skews the group.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -23% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 21.1x, Russia 4.0x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 6.2x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 4.7x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-20; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~2.0 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)-14 bn RUB
Payout ratio61%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 1.3x)-14 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)4.51 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-11.2 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price20.97 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)—

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Three-year model and IRR withheld

The number is withheld — here is why

Holding prices flat with current cost inflation wipes out modelled equity — read it as a risk signal, not a valuation

The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.

base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)

Metric, RUB mlnLTM, actual
12m to 30.06.2026
2027
12m to 30.06
2028
12m to 30.06
2029
12m to 30.06
Revenue191.1 bn180.2 bn174.8 bn169.0 bn
Revenue growth—-6%-3%-3%
EBITDA34.3 bn25.1 bn20.1 bn15.2 bn
EBITDA margin17.9%13.9%11.5%9.0%
less D&A35.1 bn33.9 bn33.3 bn32.6 bn
EBIT-841-8.8 bn-13.1 bn-17.4 bn
less net interest15.9 bn18.6 bn17.3 bn17.7 bn
less tax2.8 bn000
Net profit—-27.4 bn-30.5 bn-35.1 bn
Capex45.9 bn41.0 bn39.7 bn38.4 bn
Capex to revenue24.0%22.7%22.7%22.7%
Free cash flow-33.1 bn
operating cash flow less capex
-34.5 bn-36.9 bn-40.9 bn
Net debt113.7 bn147.9 bn184.8 bn225.8 bn
Net debt / EBITDA3.3x5.9x9.2x14.8x
Dividend per share4.51 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽0.000 ₽
Where the growth comes from
Revenue-growth sourceweightgrowth: yr 1 · 2 · 3
Related-market prices (Diamonds)
Diamond Prices Index 100% → -1%; FX ×1.051; 40% of costs follow price
EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс		82%-6% · -5% · -5%
Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration)
LTM YoY -2%; acceleration +24.2pp
годовая выручка г/г (growth_acceleration)		18%+3% · +5% · +5%
Model assumptions
Exit multipleEV/EBITDA 4.96x (4.15x…7.25x)
No re-rating: min(current 7.8x, three-year median 5.0x). Re-rating to 7.3x on a falling rate is the bull case
Second valuation: discounted cash flow0.000 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%)
79% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon
Key rate by year13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year)
Cost inflation6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3%
Dividend policy61% of net profit, capped by cash flow
Dividendssuspended — zero in the model
Current CPI (actual)6.3%, на 2026-09-30
Capexcapex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does
D&Agrows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry
Interestgross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt
Tax25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit
Working capitalneutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax
Governancequality multiplier 0.90 — flags: dividend_decline; the model's dividend is cut 10% by penalties measured on distributions
Forecast accuracy measured on history
Historical forecast checkobsmedian errorbias±20%
Revenue142%1.42x0%
Net profit119%1.19x100%

The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.

Independent one-year estimates: Frontier спот-модель — 4.81 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 0.000 ₽. Dropped as broken: eninvs Company_Forecast (-25.78)

Checks and caveats
  • ✗ Holding prices flat with current cost inflation wipes out modelled equity — read it as a risk signal, not a valuation
  • ✗ The model for this name is unvalidated (0 measurements against the four required) and the name carries 2 structural flaws: perimeter change, no free cash flow ever. Either alone would be tolerable; together they are not — the number is withheld
  • ⚠ Year-3 margin 9% is below the worst year on record (18%), though inside tolerance
  • ⚠ Year-3 net debt/EBITDA 14.8x — the model does not carry the debt
  • ⚠ IRR not computable (no price or exit value)
  • ⚠ The reporting perimeter changed in 2024: full-year revenue 239,067 against 179,468 for H1 of the same year — only 25% left for the rest of the year. That is a discontinued-operations reclassification with restated comparatives. Pre-break history is excluded and analyst forecasts may sit on a different perimeter
  • ⚠ Too little history to check (0 observations) — forecast accuracy unmeasured
  • ⚠ The debt build-up beyond cash flow could not be measured: 0 usable years, 4 discarded (perimeter change, asset sale, revaluation). The forecast runs without it — where it could be measured it adds about 5% of revenue a year to debt
  • ⚠ The reporting-period series needed repair: 1 rows discarded as incompatible with the cumulative convention (years 2020), and 8 cumulative periods rebuilt by summing standalone quarters. The database carries quarters labelled as halves and nine-month periods; LTM and year-on-year growth computed on those are wrong, so they are dropped
  • ⚠ There was no free cash flow in any of the last 2 years: by our own formula it came out negative, and the cash-flow statement shows a median of -13,617 mln. The model still projects positive cash flow, drawn from EBITDA growth that historically covered only interest and capex. The forecast dividends and debt repayment rest on that assumption
  • ✓ Growth sources: market, momentum
  • ✓ Revenue CAGR -4%
  • ✓ Base is fresh: report 4 months old
  • ✓ Governance: quality multiplier 0.90 (flags: dividend_decline). Penalties measured on distributions cut the model's dividend by 10%
  • The price move passes into revenue to the power of 0.51 (общая оценка по нефтяникам), not one for one. The tax part of costs still follows the full price move — mineral tax is levied on price, not revenue.
  • Volume is taken separately, not from revenue momentum — фактическая добыча: 33 -> 29.7 Mct за 2024-2025 (-10.0% в год, в модель взята половина). A commodity producer's revenue is mostly price, so using revenue growth as volume would count the price twice.
  • Commodity prices held at spot; 40% of cash costs follow the output price (mineral tax, energy, freight), the rest follows inflation. FX drifts with the inflation differential (PPP), so USD revenue still grows in roubles at a flat commodity price.

A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
20244.51 ₽
20233.77 ₽
202118.33 ₽
20202.63 ₽
20197.95 ₽
201811.17 ₽
20178.93 ₽
20162.09 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2024 q42024-10-172.49 ₽
2024 q22024-05-302.02 ₽
2023 q42023-10-173.77 ₽
2021 q42021-10-158.79 ₽
2021 q22021-06-309.54 ₽
2020 q32020-07-092.63 ₽
2019 q42019-10-103.84 ₽
2019 q32019-07-114.11 ₽
2018 q42018-10-115.93 ₽
2018 q32018-07-115.24 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1 (1 positive), last 30 days: 4 (2 positive, 2 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 5 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

15.09.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Наблюдательный совет АК «АЛРОСА» утвердил новое Положение о закупках, которое вступит в силу с момента размещения в единой информационной системе. Генеральному директору поручено обеспечить присоединение дочерних обществ к новому Положению в течение 15 дней.
09.09.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
09 сентября 2026 года акционерная компания 'АЛРОСА' установила размер спреда для биржевых облигаций, равного 1,35% годовых, что окажет влияние на доход по облигациям. Это решение было принято Генеральным директором в приказе № 01/233-П.
10.06.26AGM / BoardРешения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
10 июня 2026 года состоялось годовое собрание акционеров АК «АЛРОСА» (ПАО), на котором были приняты решения по 8 вопросам повестки дня, включая утверждение годового отчета и финансовой отчетности. Чистая прибыль за 2025 год в размере 29,96 млрд. руб. не была распределена, дивиденды не были объявлены. Также было решено выплатить вознаграждения членам Наблюдательного совета и Ревизионной комиссии за 2025-2026 корпоративный период.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Alrosa (ALRS) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Alrosa (ALRS)'s P/E ratio?
Alrosa (ALRS) trades at a P/E of 13.5x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Alrosa (ALRS)'s EV/EBITDA?
Alrosa (ALRS) trades at 5.8x EV/EBITDA.
What is Alrosa (ALRS)'s P/B ratio?
Alrosa (ALRS) trades at a P/B of 0.4x.
What is Alrosa (ALRS)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Alrosa (ALRS)'s ROE is -0.1%.
What is Alrosa (ALRS)'s market capitalization?
Alrosa (ALRS)'s market cap is 155.3 bn RUB.

Bonds by this issuer

IssueYTMCouponPrice, %1DVolume today, ₽Avg vol. 20D, ₽Maturity
АЛРОCЗ027Д6.6%3.1%97.75+2.06%1.4M5.0M06.2027
АЛРОСА2Р1floatfloat100.24-0.01%1.6M1.1M12.2027
АЛРОСА2Р316.1%—100.06-0.04%9.0M42.3M03.2028
АЛРОСА1Р1floatfloat99.79+0.08%26.2M18.2M09.2028
АЛРОСА2Р2floatfloat100.09+0.29%100.5M4.0M05.2029

Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.

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