MTN: profit down 24%, but operations continue to grow

MTN раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года: выручка выросла на 8,8% до 236,3 млрд ZAR, EBITDA – на 9,8%, но чистая прибыль сократилась на 24% из-за разовых факторов. При этом долговая нагрузка остаётся низкой, а акции торгуются с дисконтом к историческим мультипликаторам. На текущей цене бумага выглядит привлекательно: операционный рост продолжается, а оценка не учитывает потенциал.

Key takeaways

— Выручка +8,8% за полугодие – рост продолжается, но замедляется

— EBITDA-маржа расширилась до 52,0% с 51,5% годом ранее

— Чистая прибыль упала на 24% – сказались разовые статьи

— Долговая нагрузка низкая: net debt/EBITDA на уровне 0,27

— Операционный денежный поток за 12 месяцев – 77,9 млрд ZAR

— Модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +18%

Attractiveness

Key figures, ZAR bn

Revenue +8.8% for the half-year – growth continues, but slows

For the first half of 2026, MTN's revenue reached ZAR 236.3 billion, up 8.8% from the same period last year. Growth was driven by data services and mobile financial services, which continue to expand in key markets.

However, growth rates have slowed compared to previous periods, reflecting market saturation and increased competition. Nevertheless, the company maintains positive momentum, supporting operational resilience.

EBITDA margin expanded to 52.0% from 51.5% a year earlier

EBITDA for the first half of 2026 grew by 9.8% to ZAR 106.4 billion, with EBITDA margin expanding by 0.5 percentage points to 52.0%. The margin improvement is attributed to cost control and economies of scale.

EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth, indicating improved operational efficiency. This is a positive signal, especially amid slowing revenue growth.

Net profit fell 24% – one-off items took a toll

Net profit for the first half of 2026 was 6.2% of revenue versus 8.9% a year earlier, down 24% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to one-off items, including asset impairments and tax effects, which do not reflect operational dynamics.

Operating profit remained under pressure due to higher financial expenses and depreciation, also squeezing net margin. Nevertheless, the underlying business continues to generate profit, and one-off factors do not affect long-term value.

Low leverage: net debt/EBITDA at 0.27

At the latest balance sheet date, MTN's net debt stood at ZAR 29.1 billion, corresponding to a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.27 for the trailing twelve months. This is among the lowest in the telecom sector, providing significant financial headroom.

Over the past twelve months, net debt decreased by ZAR 8.2 billion, although it increased by ZAR 7.2 billion compared to the previous reporting date. This dynamic reflects seasonal fluctuations and investment cycles, but the overall debt level remains comfortable.

Operating cash flow for 12 months – ZAR 77.9 billion

For the trailing twelve months, MTN's operating cash flow reached ZAR 77.9 billion, covering capital expenditures and dividend payments. The generated cash confirms the quality of operations and the company's ability to finance growth without excessive debt.

Free cash flow, calculated as the difference between operating cash flow and capital expenditures, remains positive, supporting the dividend policy. The company continues to invest in networks and digital services while maintaining financial discipline.

Portal's model estimates upside potential of +18%

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, MTN's fair value is 18% above the current market price. This suggests the stock is undervalued by the market given the operational momentum.

MTN shares are included in the ZA FVC strategy on the portal, reflecting their fit with quality and value criteria. However, this is not a buy recommendation but merely a fact of inclusion in the model portfolio.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

MTN продолжает демонстрировать устойчивый операционный рост: выручка и EBITDA увеличиваются двузначными темпами, а маржа расширяется. Снижение чистой прибыли связано с разовыми статьями и не отражает ухудшения базового бизнеса. Низкая долговая нагрузка и сильный операционный денежный поток обеспечивают финансовую гибкость. При текущей оценке, когда акции торгуются с дисконтом к историческим мультипликаторам, а модель портала указывает на потенциал +18%, бумага выглядит привлекательной. Ключевой вопрос для держателей – сможет ли компания удержать темпы роста выручки в условиях усиления конкуренции.