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Sector: Iron ore

AU_FMG

Price chart

18.52 AUDDay -0.03%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
18.52 AUD · -0.03%
Market cap
37.5 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-14.8%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-28.5%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
11.1x
3y avg: 9.1x
P/B (FY)
1.9x
P/E (ann.)
9.8x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
5.0x
3y avg: 4.5x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
4.3x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.6%
FCF yield (LTM)
-1.9%

Value creation

to fair market cap at the 3-yr-average EV/EBITDA
Upside (potential)
-24.9%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
95.2 mln AUD

Shares: yahoo_fundamentals_timeseries/FMG.AX

Financial dynamics

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2025-12-31H1 2025 (6M)OK-7.0
y/y —
-2.0
y/y —
-1.1
y/y —
-3.1
y/y —
-1.5
y/y —
-3.31.831.4
y/y —
20.7
y/y —
18.8%0.4—
2025-06-30FY 2025 (12M)OK15.4
y/y -14.8%
5.0
y/y -40.2%
2.5
y/y 16.9%
7.5
y/y -28.5%
3.4
y/y -40.6%
6.5-3.230.5
y/y 1.5%
20.0
y/y 2.2%
17.1%0.5—
2024-06-30FY 2024 (12M)OK18.1
y/y 7.9%
8.4
y/y 5.8%
2.1
y/y 22.9%
10.5
y/y 8.9%
5.7
y/y 18.4%
7.9-2.830.1
y/y 6.5%
19.6
y/y 8.7%
30.3%-0.3—
2023-06-30FY 2023 (12M)OK16.8
y/y —
7.9
y/y —
1.7
y/y —
9.7
y/y —
4.8
y/y —
7.4-2.928.2
y/y —
18.0
y/y —
—0.3—
Data quality No obvious scale, balance-sheet, or cash-flow sanity issues in the displayed periods.

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

05 00010 00015 00020 0002023 FY2024 FY2025 FY

Year-over-year change

-30%-20%-10%0%10%2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

02 0004 0006 0002023 FY2024 FY2025 FY

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

-400-20002004006002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY

Key-commodity price — Iron Ore

Current 98spot vs LTM -5%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: -27.9%

Main driver: Iron Ore -5% vs LTM; revenue ×0.95 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 8 820→7 616; at 3.6× EV/EBITDA → -28%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Iron Ore (rev)+100%98.30103.72110.74-5%+7%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue16 878
LTM EBITDA8 820
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)8 058
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×0.948 (-5%)
= Spot revenue15 996
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.068 (+7%)
= 3-year-price revenue18 021
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs8 380
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs8 380
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA7 616
= 3-year-price EBITDA9 641
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)7 616
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/EBITDA (75th pct)3.6x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA27 425
Net debt407
Target market cap = EV − net debt27 018
Current market cap37 464

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -27.9%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 FY16 78013 729+22.2%8 6776 538+32.7%
2024 FY18 10918 039+0.4%10 5179 611+9.4%
2025 FY15 42015 358+0.4%7 5597 462+1.3%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -15% vs +8% the year before — a -22.8 pp move. 3-year CAGR -4%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -3% · 2024 +8% · 2025 -15%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 4.7x · target 75th pct (3y) 4.8x · LTM avg 5.1x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-03-010.62 AUDEx-dividend: 0.62 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-09-010.6 AUDEx-dividend: 0.6 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-02-250.5 AUDEx-dividend: 0.5 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-09-040.89 AUDEx-dividend: 0.89 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-02-271.08 AUDEx-dividend: 1.08 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-09-041 AUDEx-dividend: 1 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-02-260.75 AUDEx-dividend: 0.75 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-09-051.21 AUDEx-dividend: 1.21 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-02-270.86 AUDEx-dividend: 0.86 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2021-09-062.11 AUDEx-dividend: 2.11 AUD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)