Inarctica (formerly Russian Aquaculture) is Russia's largest salmon and trout farmer, growing fish in sea cages in the Barents Sea off Murmansk and in the lakes of Karelia, with its own smolt hatcheries.
Sector: Agriculture & Food
RU_AQUA
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueM USD | Operating profitM USD | D&AM USD | EBITDAM USD | Net profitM USD | Operating CFM USD | Capex + M&AM USD | AssetsM USD | EquityM USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtM USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | OK | 180.9 y/y 56.2% | 34.8 y/y 65.1% | 8.7 y/y 40.2% | 43.6 y/y 59.4% | -5.6 y/y — | -16.4 | -17.2 | 844.6 y/y 15.8% | 493.1 y/y 12.1% | -2.2% | 216.0 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 182.5 y/y 33.5% | 31.4 y/y -31.0% | 8.6 y/y 58.1% | 40.1 y/y -21.5% | 65.4 y/y -34.2% | 22.7 | -9.7 | 770.2 y/y 33.3% | 506.5 y/y 20.4% | -5.6% | 176.4 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 115.8 y/y -42.9% | 21.1 y/y -72.3% | 6.2 y/y -33.6% | 27.3 y/y -68.1% | -86.0 y/y — | 10.1 | -22.8 | 729.4 y/y 25.8% | 439.9 y/y 3.4% | -40.0% | 180.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | OK | 141.4 y/y -18.2% | 47.4 y/y -8.9% | 5.7 y/y -24.1% | 53.0 y/y -10.8% | 97.7 y/y 34.3% | 13.0 | -28.2 | 577.9 y/y -8.7% | 420.6 y/y -5.0% | 19.8% | 127.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 202.9 y/y 20.4% | 76.3 y/y 2.4% | 9.4 y/y 25.1% | 85.7 y/y 4.5% | -15.7 y/y -114.0% | 122.3 | -39.4 | 579.9 y/y -1.3% | 425.6 y/y 5.7% | -7.2% | 72.2 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 167.8 y/y — | 52.2 y/y — | 7.3 y/y — | 59.5 y/y — | 73.7 y/y — | 44.0 | -20.0 | 633.1 y/y — | 442.7 y/y — | 43.9% | 154.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 168.6 y/y — | 74.5 y/y — | 7.5 y/y — | 82.0 y/y — | 112.8 y/y — | 59.6 | -35.5 | 587.6 y/y — | 402.6 y/y — | — | 135.3 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 86 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 212 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 82 |
| Net debt | 216 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.6x
Conversion to USD. Balance sheet: rate effective on 2026-06-30, fixing date 2026-06-30. Flows: sampled average at each calculation period's bounds and monthly 15ths. Latest source row: 2026-01-01 — 2026-06-30. Source: Bank of Russia R01235. Rates
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 0.40x | 0.24x | 0.56x | 1.58x | — |
| accruals, % of assets | 17.8% | 22.0% | 12.0% | -7.6% | -8.2% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Current 71spot vs LTM -3%
The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.
USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): +14% · spot +14% · 3-yr +135%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 28.4 bln RUB |
| EBITDA | 6.5 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 21.9 bln RUB |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Multiplier — spot | ×1.04 (+4%) |
| = Spot revenue | 29.5 bln RUB |
| Multiplier — 3-yr prices | ×1.20 (+20%) |
| = 3-yr-price revenue | 34.0 bln RUB |
| 3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%) | |
| Cost multiplier | ×1.05 (+5%) |
| = Cash costs | 23.0 bln RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 6.5 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 11.0 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 8.7 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 6.5 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 7.6x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 49.3 bln RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | 16.8 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 32.5 bln RUB |
| Current market cap | 28.6 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +14%
Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.
| Commodity | Revenue share | Spot | LTM avg | $ vs LTM | RUB vs LTM (FX) | RUB 3-yr (FX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic salmon (NOK->RUB) | 100% | 70.84 | 72.76 | -3% | +4% | +20% |
Current 7.0x · 3-year 75th pct 8.6x
Group: consumer (Russia). Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fix Price | Russia | 0.5 | 1.2x |
| Henderson | Russia | 0.1 | 1.8x |
| Magnit | Russia | 1.5 | 2.0x |
| Lenta | Russia | 2.5 | 2.7x |
| VseInstrumenti | Russia | 0.5 | 2.7x |
| X5 Retail Group | Russia | 6.7 | 2.9x |
| Beluga | Russia | 0.3 | 3.0x |
| Cherkizovo | Russia | 1.8 | 3.9x |
| Rusagro | Russia | 0.9 | 4.8x |
| Abrau Durso | Russia | 0.2 | 4.9x |
| OKEY | Russia | 0.2 | 5.5x |
| Group median | 2.9x | ||
| Group average | 3.2x | ||
| This company | Russia | 0.3 | 6.7x |
Group median 2.9x; this company 6.7x — a 133% premium.
Group average 3.2x; against the average this company is at a 109% premium.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -86% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.3x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
Dividend-model upside: -56%
The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.
| 1 · Forecast dividend (per policy) | |
| Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY) | -1 bn RUB |
| Payout ratio | 26% |
| Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 2.5x) | -0 bn RUB |
| Recent actual dividend (3-yr median) | 20.00 ₽ |
| = Forecast dividend per share | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate) | |
| CBR key rate | 14.0% |
| Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median) | -11.3 pp |
| = Fair dividend yield | 7.0% |
| 3 · Valuation → upside | |
| Current price | 326 ₽ |
| Forecast dividend yield | 3.1% |
| Fair price (dividend-based) | 143 ₽ |
Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.
The number is withheld — here is why
First-year profit (1,085) differs from the last reported (4,801) by a factor of 0.23. A one-year step of that size means the base and the forecast rest on different assumptions (interest, one-offs), so dividends and IRR built on it are not anchored in fact — the number is withheld
The path below is computed and shown in full, so you can see what the model rests on and where it breaks. Only the headline price and upside are hidden — those are what we do not trust.
base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.4 bn | 28.3 bn | 28.9 bn | 29.4 bn |
| Revenue growth | — | -0% | +2% | +2% |
| EBITDA | 6.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.5 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 23.0% | 19.4% | 17.4% | 15.4% |
| less D&A | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn |
| EBIT | 5.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn |
| less net interest | — | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn |
| less tax | — | 362 | 370 | 293 |
| Net profit | 4.8 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 879 |
| Capex | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Free cash flow | -1.5 bn operating cash flow less capex | -380 | -399 | -666 |
| Net debt | 16.8 bn | 17.8 bn | 18.9 bn | 20.2 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.6x | 3.2x | 3.8x | 4.5x |
| Dividend per share | 20.00 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Related-market prices (Aquaculture) Atlantic salmon (NOK->RUB) 100% → -1%; FX ×1.034; 30% of costs follow price EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс | 82% | -0% · 0% · 0% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY +22%; acceleration +53.0pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 18% | +21% · +14% · +11% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 6.95x (5.56x…10.00x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 6.9x, three-year median 7.6x). Re-rating to 10.0x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 0.000 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 83% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 26% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | no flags: the dividend has not faded against profit, payouts were not suspended, no audit qualification and no manual penalty — quality multiplier 1.00 |
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9 | 26% | 0.89x | 44% |
| EBITDA | 9 | 14% | 0.95x | 67% |
| Net profit | 8 | 52% | 0.52x | 0% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 316 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 83.33 ₽; Frontier див-модель — 143 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 370 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 231 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
Paid, trailing 12-mo: 20.00 RUB/sh · 6.1%
| Pay year | Dividend /sh | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.00 ₽ | |
| 2025 | 10.00 ₽ | |
| 2024 | 40.00 ₽ | |
| 2023 | 45.00 ₽ | |
| 2022 | 38.00 ₽ | |
| 2021 | 17.00 ₽ | |
| 2020 | 5.00 ₽ |
| Period | Last day to buy | /sh |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 q4 | 2026-10-01 | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2026 q3 | 2026-07-06 | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2025 q3 | 2025-07-04 | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q4 | 2024-11-29 | 30.00 ₽ |
| 2024 q3 | 2024-07-05 | 10.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q4 | 2023-12-07 | 19.00 ₽ |
| 2023 q3 | 2023-09-20 | 26.00 ₽ |
| 2022 q4 | 2022-12-14 | 15.00 ₽ |
| 2022 q3 | 2022-09-07 | 23.00 ₽ |
| 2021 q4 | 2021-12-16 | 4.00 ₽ |
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1 (1 positive), last 30 days: 7 (4 positive) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 7 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 25.09.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На внеочередном общем собрании акционеров ПАО «ИНАРКТИКА» принято решение о выплате дивидендов в размере 10 руб. на акцию по результатам 1 полугодия 2026 года. Дата определения лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов, - 04.10.2026. |
| 28.08.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Финансовые результаты деятельности эмитента (компаний группы эмитента) (прогнозные, предварительные, фактические) ПАО 'ИНАРКТИКА' увеличила скорректированную чистую прибыль в 2 раза до 1,6 млрд руб. по итогам первого полугодия 2026 года. Выручка компании выросла на 38% до 13,8 млрд руб., а совет директоров рекомендовал выплату дивидендов в размере 879 млн руб. или 10 руб. на акцию. |
| 10.08.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Операционные результаты деятельности эмитента (компаний группы эмитента) (прогнозные, предварительные, фактические) Компания Инарктика увеличила выручку на 38% до 13,8 млрд руб. за первое полугодие 2026 года. Объем продаж вырос на 57% до 13,2 тыс. тонн. На конец июня биомасса рыбы в воде составила 27,7 тыс. тонн, что на 33% больше, чем годом ранее. |
| 15.07.26 | Filing | ★ ▼ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора Кредитный рейтинг ПАО 'ИНАРКТИКА' был изменен с прогноза 'стабильный' на 'негативный', при этом значение рейтинга осталось на уровне А+(RU). Изменение рейтинга произошло 15 июля 2026 года. |
| 29.06.26 | Filing | ★ Дата определения (фиксации) лиц, имеющих право на осуществление прав по ценным бумагам эмитента 29 июня 2026 года ПАО «ИНАРКТИКА» определит лиц, имеющих право на получение дивидендов по обыкновенным акциям, с фиксированной датой 7 июля 2026 года. Протокол общего собрания акционеров, на котором принято данное решение, зарегистрирован под номером 84. |
| 19.05.26 | Filing | ★ ▲ Проведение заседания совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) и его повестка дня Совет директоров ПАО 'ИНАРКТИКА' проведет заседание 22 мая 2026 года, на котором будет обсуждаться распределение прибыли и выплата дивидендов акционерам за 2025 год. Также будет рассмотрен вопрос об одобрении годовой бухгалтерской отчетности за 2025 год. |
| 31.08.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО 'ИНАРКТИКА' утвердил Отчет об устойчивом развитии Группы компаний за 2025 год. Все 9 членов совета проголосовали 'за', кворум был соблюден. |
| 03.06.26 | Buyback | Приобретение лицом права распоряжаться определенным количеством голосов, приходящихся на голосующие акции (доли), составляющие уставный капитал эмитента Компания 'ИНАРКТИКА' сообщает о приобретении акционерным обществом 'Контрада Капитал' 13,15 млн голосов, что составляет 14,96% уставного капитала. Приобретение произошло на основании договора доверительного управления имуществом. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Inarctica (AQUA) — from primary filings.
| Issue | YTM | Coupon | Price, % | 1D | Volume today, ₽ | Avg vol. 20D, ₽ | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Инаркт2Р1 | 16.2% | 14.25% | 99.64 | -0.24% | 1.1M | 3.1M | 02.2027 |
| Инаркт2Р3 | float | float | 101.50 | +0.03% | 427K | 2.3M | 03.2028 |
| Инаркт2Р2 | 16.6% | 19% | 104.19 | -0.10% | 1.2M | 2.5M | 04.2028 |
| Инаркт2Р5 | float | float | 100.19 | +0.03% | 11.3M | 10.1M | 11.2028 |
| Инаркт2Р4 | 16.3% | 15.75% | 101.00 | +0.00% | 758K | 1.2M | 11.2028 |
| Инаркт2Р6 | float | float | 99.97 | +0.11% | 2.6M | 9.8M | 05.2029 |
Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.
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