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Rusal (RUAL) USD

Rusal is one of the world's largest aluminium producers, mining bauxite, refining alumina and smelting aluminium at Siberian plants powered mainly by hydroelectricity.

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Margins improving (8%→14%, H1 2026)✓Cheaper than own history (EV/EBITDA 10.3 vs avg 19.0)✗Loss-making last FY✗High leverage (9.7x EBITDA)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Metals & Steel

RU_RUAL

Price chart

25.12 RUBDay 0.22%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
25.12 RUB · 0.22%
Market cap
4.7 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
10.3%
Δ EBITDA y/y
97.7%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
81.0x
3y avg: 14.3x
P/B (FY)
0.4x
P/E (ann.)
5.6x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
10.3x
3y avg: 19.0x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
6.0x

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
-5.6%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-90.0%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
594.9 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2026-06-30H1 2026 (6M)OK8.3
y/y 10.3%
0.8
y/y 209.4%
0.4
y/y 11.6%
1.2
y/y 97.7%
0.4
y/y —
0.40.025.9
y/y 7.5%
12.3
y/y 1.7%
7.0%9.0Report (PDF)
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK6.6
y/y 0.7%
-0.1
y/y -119.3%
0.3
y/y 10.6%
0.2
y/y -21.5%
-0.4
y/y -244.3%
0.7-1.425.2
y/y 13.5%
11.8
y/y 5.1%
-3.6%8.1Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK7.6
y/y 31.8%
0.3
y/y -42.8%
0.3
y/y 31.1%
0.6
y/y -16.1%
-0.1
y/y -115.4%
0.90.024.1
y/y 9.2%
12.1
y/y 1.2%
-1.5%7.3Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK6.7
y/y -13.1%
-0.1
y/y 3.3%
0.3
y/y -14.2%
0.2
y/y -16.2%
0.3
y/y 347.9%
0.9-1.422.2
y/y 2.7%
11.2
y/y 1.1%
7.1%6.4Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK5.7
y/y -4.1%
0.4
y/y —
0.3
y/y -0.7%
0.7
y/y 216.3%
0.6
y/y 34.6%
-0.40.022.0
y/y -0.1%
12.0
y/y 3.1%
9.9%6.3Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK7.4
y/y —
-0.1
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
-0.1
y/y —
1.6-1.221.6
y/y —
11.1
y/y —
2.8%5.8Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK6.0
y/y —
0.0
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.20.022.0
y/y —
11.6
y/y —
—6.4Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)8 699
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)1 368
− Cash & equivalents1 051
Net debt9 016

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 6.8x

Conversion to USD. Balance sheet: rate effective on 2026-06-30, fixing date 2026-06-30. Flows: sampled average at each calculation period's bounds and monthly 15ths. Latest source row: 2026-01-01 — 2026-06-30. Source: Bank of Russia R01235. Rates

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

02 0004 0006 0008 00010 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Year-over-year change

-100%0%100%200%300%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Cash flow

Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) ($ mln)

-1 000-50005001 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H1

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

02 0004 0006 0008 00010 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY2026 H1

Profit and cash

Profit runs ahead of cash
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.48x of reported net profit; after capex, -0.47x. Loss years (2025) are left out of the ratio.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.35x-0.23x6.24x0.60x—
accruals, % of assets9.7%7.4%-7.1%1.4%-8.7%
Last twelve months (to 2026-06-30): 27.37x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 9.7x · capex 2.2x of depreciation
● In a typical year operating cash flow covered 48% of reported profit (4 profitable years).
● Net debt / EBITDA 9.7x at the last full year.
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodAluminium
млн т		Alumina
млн т		Bauxite
млн т		Aluminium sales
млн т
H1 2026-062.013.6610.90—
FY 2025-123.92
−1.9%		6.86
+6.7%		18.45
+16.2%		4.49
+16.0%
FY 2024-123.996.4315.883.87

РУСАЛ, операционные результаты за 2025 г. (rusal.ru, мар. 2026): алюминий 3,918 млн т (-1,9% г/г), глинозём 6,858 млн т (+6,7%), бокситы 18,453 млн т (+16,2%), реализация алюминия и сплавов 4,49 млн т (+16%). 2024 г. восстановлен из заявленных темпов. | H1 2026 (03.09.2026): алюминий 2,010 млн т (+4,5% г/г), глинозём 3,658 (+7,6%), бокситы 10,905 (+12,8%) — операц. релиз РУСАЛа 1П2026 (1prime/Fomag). Продажи алюминия в релизе отдельной строкой не даны -> пусто.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Aluminium

Annual production
3.92 Mt
2025

Production, Mt

3.8520233.9920243.922025

Production

YearProduction, Mt
20253.92
−1.8%
20243.99
+3.6%
20233.85

Rusal FY2025 primary aluminium 3.918 Mt (-1.9% YoY). FY2024 3.99 Mt. Bauxite reserves not disclosed as aluminium metal.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −18% (factor 0.82)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Aluminum

Current 3 014spot vs LTM -1%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the company's 3-YEAR MEDIAN EV/EBITDA (clamped to 1-10x). Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is). EV/EBITDA capped at 10x (actual 10.6× distorted by a low-EBITDA year).

Upside (conservative): -90% · spot -78% · 3-yr -90%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30)
Revenue1.17 trn RUB
EBITDA102.7 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1.07 trn RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.02 (+2%)
= Spot revenue1.20 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×0.97 (-3%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.14 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs1.12 trn RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA78.5 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA18.6 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/248.5 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))48.5 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75, capped 10x)10.0x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA485.5 bln RUB
Net debt (as of 2026-06-30)702.3 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt0 mln RUB
Current market cap382.9 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -90%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Aluminum74%3 013.753 045.15-1%+2%-5%
Alumina (Platts)6%380.58326.76+16%+20%+18%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth +4% vs +0% the year before — a +3.3 pp move. 3-year CAGR +12%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +33% · 2024 +0% · 2025 +4%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — daily history

Current 10.6x · 3-year 75th pct 18.8x

EV/EBITDA3-year 75th pct

Peer comparison

Group: Metals & Steel. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
Tata SteelIndia22.88.1x1.6x
JSW SteelIndia31.710.8x2.1x
MMKRussia3.12.7x2.7x
Gerdauglobal10.37.0x3.4x
NLMKRussia5.43.6x3.6x
POSCO HoldingsKorea16.37.1x3.7x
Steel Dynamicsglobal36.712.3x5.9x
SeverstalRussia7.26.1x6.1x
Nucor Corporationglobal60.415.8x7.6x
Cleveland-Cliffsglobal8.020.3x9.7x
UsiminasBrazil1.626.3x14.1x
TMK (pipe)Russia0.916.3x16.3x
Group median9.4x4.8x
Group average11.4x6.4x
This companyRussia4.710.3x10.3x

Group median 9.4x as traded, 4.8x adjusted; this company 10.3x — a 113% premium.

Group average 11.4x as traded, 6.4x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 61% premium. The average sits 32% above the median: TMK (pipe) (16.3x) skews the group.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -144% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~4.0 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)3 bn RUB
Payout ratio16%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — caps payout16 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)1.21 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
= Fair dividend yield12.0%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price25.17 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)—

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
20221.21 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodLast day to buy/sh
2022 q42022-10-181.21 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 1 (1 negative), last 30 days: 7 (5 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 14 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

04.09.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На внеочередном собрании акционеров компании РУСАЛ, состоявшемся 4 сентября 2026 года, было решено не объявлять и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам шести месяцев 2026 года. Кворум для принятия решений был достигнут, 62,67% голосов проголосовали 'за' это решение.
14.08.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
Компания «РУСАЛ» получила кредитный рейтинг «AAA» по китайской национальной шкале с прогнозом «стабильный». Рейтинг был присвоен 13 августа 2026 года рейтинговым агентством Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd.
11.08.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров компании РУСАЛ рекомендовал Внеочередному общему собранию акционеров не объявлять и не выплачивать дивиденды по результатам 6 месяцев 2026 года. На заседании 10 августа 2026 года 11 из 12 членов совета проголосовали "ЗА" данное решение.
09.10.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
9 октября 2026 года истекает срок для направления оферт от потенциальных приобретателей Биржевых облигаций компании 'РУСАЛ'. Биржевые облигации имеют номинальную стоимость 1 тыс. юаней каждая и размещаются по открытой подписке.
07.10.26BuybackПриобретение лицом права распоряжаться определенным количеством голосов, приходящихся на голосующие акции (доли), составляющие уставный капитал эмитента
Компания «СУАЛ Партнерс» приобрела право распоряжаться 3 804 140 275 голосами (25,04%) голосующих акций компании «РУСАЛ», увеличив свою долю с 3 308 724 385 голосов (21,78%). Дата приобретения права - 24.09.2026.
22.07.26BuybackПриобретение (наступление оснований для приобретения) размещённых эмитентом облигаций
Компания 'РУСАЛ' планирует приобрести свои биржевые облигации по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости с дополнительной выплатой накопленного купонного дохода. Срок оплаты облигаций установлен на 3 августа 2026 года, а период сбора заявок для владельцев облигаций будет с 23 по 29 июля 2026 года.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=38288

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Rusal (RUAL) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Rusal (RUAL)'s P/E ratio?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at a P/E of 81.0x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s EV/EBITDA?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s P/B ratio?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at a P/B of 0.4x.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Rusal (RUAL)'s ROE is 7.0%.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s market capitalization?
Rusal (RUAL)'s market cap is 4.7 bn USD.

Bonds by this issuer

IssueYTMCouponPrice, %1DVolume today, ₽Avg vol. 20D, ₽Maturity
РУСАЛ 1Р14—10%————put 11.2026
РУСАЛ 1Р10floatfloat100.34+0.06%1.2M9.0M03.2027
РУСАЛ 1Р1511.1%7.25%98.78-0.90%8.5M14.8M03.2027
РУСАЛ 1Р16—10%————put 04.2027
РУСАЛ 1Р9floatfloat100.10+0.00%220K10.2M06.2027
РУСАЛ БО056.1%8.25%101.60+1.22%12K2.0M07.2027
РУСАЛ БО069.8%8.25%99.00-1.14%85K1.9M07.2027
РУСАЛ 1Р89.8%9.25%99.88+0.88%615K1.7M08.2027
РУСАЛ 1Р1710.1%10%100.50+0.15%559K101.6M04.2028
РУСАЛ 1Р11floatfloat100.28+0.00%266K15.0M08.2029

Price, YTM and turnover from MOEX; 1D is the current price vs the previous session close; floaters have no fixed YTM. Not investment advice.

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