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Rusal (RUAL) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✗Profit falling (-148%)✗Loss-making last FY✗Margins compressing (7%→5%)✗High leverage (9.7x EBITDA)✗No dividends currently

Sector: Metals & Steel

RU_RUAL

Price chart

22.54 RUBDay -1.23%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
22.54 RUB · -1.23%
Market cap
4.8 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-15.6%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-38.1%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
—
3y avg: 13.5x
P/B (FY)
0.4x
P/E (ann.)
<0
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
—

Cash return

Dividend yield
—
FCF yield (LTM)
—

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-90.0%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
2.1 bln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB USDOperating profitB USDD&AB USDEBITDAB USDNet profitB USDOperating CFB USDCapex + M&AB USDAssetsB USDEquityB USDROE (annualized)Net debtB USDSource
2025-12-31H2 2025 (6M)OK7.5
y/y -15.6%
-0.2
y/y -136.8%
0.4
y/y -7.2%
0.2
y/y -38.1%
-0.4
y/y -216.1%
0.8-117.427.6
y/y -12.7%
12.9
y/y -19.1%
-3.9%631.0Report (PDF)
2025-06-30H1 2025 (6M)OK9.2
y/y 27.0%
0.3
y/y -44.9%
0.4
y/y 26.3%
0.7
y/y -19.2%
-0.1
y/y -114.8%
1.1-1.026.5
y/y -0.1%
13.3
y/y -7.4%
-1.5%555.9Report (PDF)
2024-12-31H2 2024 (6M)OK8.8
y/y -7.9%
-0.1
y/y -3.8%
0.4
y/y -8.7%
0.3
y/y -11.0%
0.3
y/y 512.0%
1.2-128.531.7
y/y 16.4%
16.0
y/y 14.6%
7.0%639.2Report (PDF)
2024-06-30H1 2024 (6M)OK7.3
y/y 12.6%
0.6
y/y —
0.3
y/y 16.7%
0.9
y/y 271.6%
0.7
y/y 58.2%
-0.5-1.126.5
y/y -1.5%
14.4
y/y 1.6%
10.2%531.9Report (PDF)
2023-12-31H2 2023 (6M)OK9.6
y/y —
-0.1
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
-0.1
y/y —
2.1-98.327.2
y/y —
14.0
y/y —
2.6%482.3Report (PDF)
2023-06-30H1 2023 (6M)OK6.4
y/y —
0.0
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
0.5
y/y —
0.3-0.526.9
y/y —
14.2
y/y —
—562.0Report (PDF)

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

02 0004 0006 0008 00010 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Year-over-year change

-100%0%100%200%300%2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-1 000-50005001 0002023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H2

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0200 000400 000600 0002023 H12023 FY2024 H12024 FY2025 H12025 FY

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodAluminium
млн т		Alumina
млн т		Bauxite
млн т		Aluminium sales
млн т
FY 2025-123.92
−1.9%		6.86
+6.7%		18.45
+16.2%		4.49
+16.0%
FY 2024-123.996.4315.883.87

РУСАЛ, операционные результаты за 2025 г. (rusal.ru, мар. 2026): алюминий 3,918 млн т (-1,9% г/г), глинозём 6,858 млн т (+6,7%), бокситы 18,453 млн т (+16,2%), реализация алюминия и сплавов 4,49 млн т (+16%). 2024 г. восстановлен из заявленных темпов.

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Aluminium

Annual production
3.92 Mt
2025

Production, Mt

3.8520233.9920243.922025

Production

YearProduction, Mt
20253.92
−1.8%
20243.99
+3.6%
20233.85

Rusal FY2025 primary aluminium 3.918 Mt (-1.9% YoY). FY2024 3.99 Mt. Bauxite reserves not disclosed as aluminium metal.

Quality / corporate governance

Potential discount −18% (factor 0.82)

This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.

Key-commodity price — Aluminum

Current 3 179spot vs LTM +4%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the current EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

EV/EBITDA capped at 10x (actual 18.0× distorted by a low-EBITDA year).

Upside (conservative): -90% · spot -90% · 3-yr -90%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue1.19 trn RUB
EBITDA65.1 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)1.12 trn RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.04 (+4%)
= Spot revenue1.23 trn RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×0.92 (-8%)
= 3-yr-price revenue1.10 trn RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs1.18 trn RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA51.6 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA-81.2 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2-14.8 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))-14.8 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (current, capped 10x)10.0x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA-148.1 bln RUB
Net debt631.0 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt0 mln RUB
Current market cap542.9 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -90%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
Aluminum74%3 179.203 047.33+4%+5%-10%
Alumina (Platts)6%333.34327.09+2%+2%+14%
Palladium4%1 274.501 460.88-13%-13%-17%
Nickel3%17 399.1316 499.52+5%+6%+6%
Copper2%14 263.9312 244.66+16%+17%-12%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth accelerating ▲
Last-year revenue growth +4% vs +0% the year before — a +3.3 pp move. 3-year CAGR +12%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +33% · 2024 +0% · 2025 +4%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividends suspended (~3.8 yr without a payout)

The company has not paid a dividend for over 18 months — profit is going to capex or deleveraging (e.g. Nornickel, NLMK, RusHydro, FSK). The forecast payout is zeroed until distributions resume; profit and cash flow may still be healthy.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)-37 bn RUB
Payout ratio16%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex)16 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)1.21 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share0.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.2%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-9.6 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.8%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price33.90 ₽
Forecast dividend yield—
Fair price (dividend-based)0.000 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Pay yearDividend /sh
20221.21 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2022 q42022-10-181.21 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Corporate events

03.04.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
03.04.2026 присвоен кредитный рейтинг долгового инструмента эмитента 'Объединённая Компания «РУСАЛ»' на уровне ruA+. Биржевые облигации имеют номинальную стоимость 1 тыс. юаней каждая, со сроком погашения 1092 дня.
22.07.26BuybackПриобретение (наступление оснований для приобретения) размещённых эмитентом облигаций
Компания 'РУСАЛ' планирует приобрести свои биржевые облигации по цене 100% от их номинальной стоимости с дополнительной выплатой накопленного купонного дохода. Срок оплаты облигаций установлен на 3 августа 2026 года, а период сбора заявок для владельцев облигаций будет с 23 по 29 июля 2026 года.
08.07.26BuybackПриобретение лицом права распоряжаться определенным количеством голосов, приходящихся на голосующие акции (доли), составляющие уставный капитал эмитента
Компания «СУАЛ Партнерс» приобрела право на 3 877 333 405 голосов, что составляет 25,52% голосующих акций компании «РУСАЛ». Это право было получено 22.06.2026, и информация об этом была подтверждена 07.07.2026.
30.06.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров компании 'РУСАЛ' утвердил внутренний документ - Кодекс делового партнера. На заседании, состоявшемся 25.06.2026, кворум составил 13 членов, все проголосовали 'ЗА'.
26.06.26AGM / BoardРешения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров МКПАО «ОК РУСАЛ» 25 июня 2026 года не были объявлены дивиденды по результатам 2025 года, а также утверждены годовые и консолидированные отчеты. Аудитором на 2026 год избрано ООО «Б1 – АУДИТ» с оплатой 235,2 млн. руб. В Совет директоров и Ревизионную комиссию избраны новые члены.
19.05.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
19 мая 2026 года Эмитент не приобрел никаких Биржевых облигаций серии БО-001Р-14, так как владельцы не предъявили их к выкупу. В результате сумма выкупа составила 0,00 руб. Биржевые облигации имеют международный код ISIN RU000A10BLH8.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 1 (1 negative) across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 9 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=38288

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Rusal (RUAL) — from primary filings.

RUAL is a Russian aluminum producer, involved in the mining of bauxite and the smelting of aluminum and alumina.

Frequently asked questions

What is Rusal (RUAL)'s P/B ratio?
Rusal (RUAL) trades at a P/B of 0.4x.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Rusal (RUAL)'s ROE is -6.3%.
What is Rusal (RUAL)'s market capitalization?
Rusal (RUAL)'s market cap is 4.8 bn USD.