Northern Star: EBITDA and profit rise, but revenue drops 65.9% on concentrate sales and mill expansion transition

29 июля 2026 года Northern Star раскрыла результаты за финансовый год, закончившийся 30 июня 2026. За отчётный период выручка упала на 65,9% до 7 000 млн AUD, тогда как EBITDA выросла на 22,0% до 3 806,1 млн AUD, а чистая прибыль – на 24,2% до 1 547,7 млн AUD. Рост прибыли при обвале выручки объясняется переходом на новую мощность и продажей концентрата, что искажает сопоставимость. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (8,5x) ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (9,9x), а чистый долг отрицательный.

Key takeaways

— Выручка упала на 65,9% из-за продажи концентрата и перехода на новую мощность, но EBITDA выросла на 22,0%

— EBITDA-маржа взлетела до 187,2% с 52,3% год назад – это эффект низкой базы и разовых статей

— Чистая прибыль выросла на 24,2%, но маржа чистой прибыли 76,2% против 20,9% год назад – результат разовых факторов

— Чистый долг отрицательный: минус 1 018,1 млн AUD, при этом долг вырос на 0,4 млрд RUB за квартал и на 0,7 млрд RUB за 12 месяцев

— KCGM Mill Expansion в стадии пусконаладки: капитальные затраты 713 млн AUD за год, проект на финальной стадии

— Обратный выкуп акций на 129 млн AUD в квартале – компания возвращает капитал, но дивидендная доходность всего 1,07%

— По модели портала акция переоценена на 7%: справедливая стоимость ниже текущей цены

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue fell 65.9% on concentrate sales and mill expansion transition, but EBITDA rose 22.0%

For the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026, Northern Star's revenue was A$7,000.0 million, down 65.9% from a year earlier. The decline is tied to the company selling gold concentrate (74koz for the year) and transitioning to new processing capacity, which changed the revenue mix.

EBITDA, however, rose 22.0% to A$3,806.1 million. Growth was driven by operational efficiency: all three production centres generated positive net mine cash flow of A$1,179 million for the year. The company confirmed AISC of A$2,698/oz stayed within original guidance.

EBITDA margin jumped to 187.2% from 52.3% a year ago – an effect of low base and one-offs

EBITDA margin for the reported period was 187.2% versus 52.3% a year earlier. Such a jump is impossible without one-offs: concentrate sales are not in revenue but are a separate line, and EBITDA includes non-cash items such as inventory revaluation and hedging.

The company notes a non-cash inventory movement credit of A$190 million for the year, which boosted EBITDA. Thus the 187.2% margin does not reflect operational profitability but is an accounting artefact.

Net profit rose 24.2%, but net margin of 76.2% versus 20.9% a year ago – a result of one-offs

Net profit for the reported period was A$1,547.7 million, up 24.2% from a year earlier. Net margin reached 76.2% versus 20.9% last year. Such a margin level is incomparable with operating activity – it is driven by the same one-offs as EBITDA, including non-cash inventory movements and likely tax effects.

The report mentions that tax depreciation on the Hemi project starts from the acquisition date, providing cash tax savings of about A$200 million in FY27 and A$150–200 million in FY28. This may partly explain the elevated net profit in the reported period.

Net debt is negative: minus A$1,018.1 million, while debt rose by A$0.4 billion over the quarter and A$0.7 billion over 12 months

On the latest balance sheet, Northern Star's net debt was minus A$1,018.1 million, i.e. cash and bullion exceed debt. Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is minus 0.27, meaning net cash.

However, net debt rose by A$0.4 billion over the quarter and A$0.7 billion over 12 months. The increase is tied to capital expenditure on the KCGM expansion and share buybacks. The company retains undrawn credit lines of A$1,750 million and has notes of US$600 million.

KCGM Mill Expansion in commissioning: capex of A$713 million for the year, project at final stage

The key event of the report is the start of commissioning of Stage 1 of the KCGM mill expansion, which will increase processing capacity to 27Mtpa. Project capex for the fiscal year was A$713 million, slightly above the revised guidance of A$680–700 million. Total spend since project start reached A$1,605 million.

Stage 2, which will consolidate processing into a single hub, is expected to complete in late 1H FY27 and deliver a 1–2% recovery uplift. The company expects to reach steady-state throughput of 27Mtpa by FY29. This explains the temporary revenue decline: the company deliberately uses lower-grade feed during commissioning.

Share buyback of A$129 million in the quarter – company returns capital, but dividend yield is only 1.07%

In the June quarter, Northern Star bought back shares worth A$129 million under a program of up to A$500 million. This is part of its capital return policy. Trailing twelve-month dividend yield was 1.07% – modest for a gold miner.

The company generates strong cash flow: operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months was A$3,200.0 million. Underlying free cash flow before buybacks was A$206 million for the quarter, allowing it to fund both construction and capital returns.

On the portal's model, the share is overvalued by 7%: fair value below current price

Our portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current gold prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, shows the share trading 7% above fair value. This means the market is already pricing in a successful KCGM ramp-up and production growth.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 8.5x, below its own three-year average of 9.9x. P/E for the trailing twelve months is 21.6x. The share trades at a discount to its history, but the portal's model points to limited upside.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Сильная сторона отчёта – операционная эффективность: EBITDA выросла на 22%, все три центра генерируют денежный поток, а чистый долг отрицательный. Разовые статьи, такие как неденежные движения запасов, искажают маржу, но не меняют картину устойчивого бизнеса. Главный вопрос для держателя – успеет ли KCGM выйти на полную мощность к FY29 и не съедят ли капитальные затраты денежный поток. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор ниже собственной истории, но модель портала показывает ограниченный апсайд.