Australia Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This season's Australian corporate results were defined by a stark divergence: battery and technology metals delivered explosive growth, while traditional energy and bulk commodities barely moved. Rare earths and lithium posted median revenue growth of +80.2% and +73.0% respectively, whereas coal mining managed just +0.9% and oil & gas +1.6%. The gap between the hottest and coldest sectors exceeded 80 percentage points, a clear signal that the market is rewarding future-facing commodities and punishing the old economy.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Rare earths and lithium delivered the goods, but gold miners quietly shone

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) led the charge with revenue up 80.2% year over year, while EBITDA surged 184.7%. Pilbara Minerals (PLS) matched that momentum in lithium, with revenue up 73.0% and net profit up a staggering 368.6%. But the real standout was Mineral Resources (MIN), which combines iron ore, lithium, and services: revenue rose 44.5%, EBITDA jumped 232.4%, and net profit soared 217.4%. These three names alone show that exposure to battery materials and diversified operations can produce outsized gains.

Gold miners also impressed, with Genesis Minerals (GMD) posting revenue growth of 89.4%, EBITDA up 104.0%, and net profit up 172.1%. Evolution Mining (EVN) delivered a solid 27.7% revenue increase and 76.2% EBITDA growth. The sector's median revenue growth of 66.1% underscores that gold's safe-haven appeal is translating into real financial performance.

Coal and oil & gas were the ugly ducklings of the season

Coal mining barely grew revenue (+0.9% median), and profitability collapsed. New Hope (NHC) saw EBITDA fall 32.4% and net profit plunge 63.4%. Whitehaven Coal (WHC) reported revenue down 7.4% and net profit down 40.7%, despite EBITDA rising 35.8% — a sign of margin pressure. Yancoal (YAL) posted revenue up 11.8% but net profit crashed 89.6%. Oil & gas was equally disappointing: Santos (STO) revenue inched up 1.6% but EBITDA fell 17.6% and net profit dropped 19.1%. These results highlight the sector's struggle with weak prices and cost inflation.

The plot twist: IGO's profit explosion despite falling revenue

In a season where revenue growth was king, IGO (IGO) delivered a genuine surprise: revenue fell 9.7% year over year, yet EBITDA skyrocketed 143.9% and net profit jumped 115.2%. This decoupling of revenue and profit is rare and suggests a massive margin expansion, likely from cost cuts or one-off gains. It's a warning sign that not all growth is created equal — and that the market may be mispricing this turnaround story.

Cheap for the growth: Regis Resources and Mineral Resources are bargains

Regis Resources (RRL) trades at a P/E of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x while growing revenue 42.8% and net profit 181.1% — a clear value opportunity. Mineral Resources (MIN) is similarly attractive at 9.5x earnings and 5.5x EV/EBITDA, with revenue up 44.5%. In contrast, Lynas (LYC) looks priced for perfection at 58.6x earnings and 43.4x EV/EBITDA, despite 80.2% revenue growth. IGO's 33.6x P/E and 62.3x EV/EBITDA seem stretched given its revenue decline. For value-focused investors, the gold and diversified miners offer the best risk-reward.

Income hunters: Whitehaven and Yancoal offer hefty yields

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) offers the highest dividend yield in our coverage, though the exact yield is not provided. Yancoal (YAL) also provides a strong yield, making coal miners the income champions despite their growth struggles. For investors prioritizing dividends, these names warrant a closer look, but beware of the underlying earnings volatility.

Looking at the long view, Northern Star Resources (NST) stands out with a 3-year revenue CAGR of +360.7%, reflecting a massive transformation. Genesis Minerals (GMD) also impresses with a +182.9% CAGR. In contrast, Pilbara Minerals (PLS) has a -29.1% CAGR, highlighting the boom-bust nature of lithium. As we look ahead, watch for whether the battery materials rally can sustain its momentum and if the laggards can engineer a turnaround. The divergence between future-facing and traditional commodities is likely to persist, making stock selection critical.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

New Hope today reported FY 2026 results. Revenue came in at A$1,766.53m, up just 0.9% year on year, while net profit collapsed 63.4% to A$160.96m and the net margin narrowed from 25.1% to 9.1%. The company remains debt-free with a net cash position of A$478.677m, but at a P/E of 33.7 and EV/EBITDA of 9.8 against its own three-year average of 6.36, the share looks rather unattractive: the market is already pricing a profit recovery that the report does not yet show.

Key takeaways

— Revenue barely grew – up 0.9% to A$1,766.53m – against a strong prior-year base

— Net profit collapsed 63.4% to A$160.96m, with the net margin narrowing from 25.1% to 9.1% on a high base effect

— Operating profit of A$267.525m and operating cash flow of A$564.128m show the business remains profitable and cash-generative

— The company is debt-free: net cash of A$478.677m and net debt/EBITDA LTM of negative 0.95

— Capex of A$193.06m absorbs about two-thirds of operating cash flow, limiting free cash

— Dividend yield of 3.85% is below many commodity peers and does not offset the profit decline

— Valuation does not look cheap: EV/EBITDA of 9.8 versus its own three-year average of 6.36, and the portal model suggests the share is 27% overvalued

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue barely grew – up 0.9% to A$1,766.53m – against a strong prior-year base

New Hope's FY 2026 revenue came in at A$1,766.53m, just 0.9% above the prior-year level. Growth is essentially absent: the company failed to expand sales after an exceptionally strong prior year in terms of pricing.

The revenue dynamics reflect primarily a price factor rather than volume. Without segment detail it is hard to say what supported sales, but the stagnation against a high base suggests that the exhaustion of the price rally is not being offset by higher shipments.

For investors, this means that hopes for a profit recovery driven by revenue are not yet materialising. The company is operating in an environment where even maintaining last year's sales level requires effort, and growth is only possible with a new surge in coal prices.

Net profit collapsed 63.4% to A$160.96m, with the net margin narrowing from 25.1% to 9.1% on a high base effect

Net profit for FY 2026 was A$160.96m, down 63.4% year on year. The net margin fell from 25.1% to 9.1% – a 16 percentage point decline driven mainly by the high base effect: last year the company earned at the peak of coal prices.

Operating profit was A$267.525m, also significantly below the prior-year level, though less dramatically than net profit. The gap between operating and net profit may be explained by tax or one-off items, but without further detail from the report the exact cause is not disclosed.

The current margin of 9.1% looks more sustainable than the anomalous 25.1% a year earlier. However, judging by the valuation, the market expects a profit recovery rather than stabilisation at the current level.

Operating profit of A$267.525m and operating cash flow of A$564.128m show the business remains profitable and cash-generative

Despite the profit decline, New Hope's operating activity remains profitable: operating profit was A$267.525m. Operating cash flow was significantly higher at A$564.128m, indicating good cash conversion.

The excess of operating cash flow over operating profit may be explained by depreciation and changes in working capital. This is a positive signal: the business can fund its needs from internal resources.

However, a significant portion of this flow goes to capital expenditures, which amounted to A$193.06m. After deducting these, around A$371m remains – free cash flow that can be directed to dividends or debt reduction, though the company has no debt.

The company is debt-free: net cash of A$478.677m and net debt/EBITDA LTM of negative 0.95

New Hope maintains an exceptionally strong balance sheet: net cash at the end of FY 2026 was A$478.677m. This means cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations, and the company does not rely on borrowed funds.

The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is negative at minus 0.95. The negative value reflects a net cash position rather than debt burden. This level provides financial stability even amid volatile coal prices.

During the reporting period, the net cash position remained virtually unchanged – a decrease of RUB 0.4bn, which is insignificant relative to the total. The company is not increasing debt and has no need for additional financing.

Capex of A$193.06m absorbs about two-thirds of operating cash flow, limiting free cash

New Hope's capital expenditures for FY 2026 were A$193.06m. This is about two-thirds of operating cash flow of A$564.128m. This ratio means that a significant portion of earned funds is reinvested in maintaining and developing production.

Free cash flow after capex is around A$371m. This is still a solid amount, but significantly below operating cash flow. The company has to spend more on investment than during peak price periods when profits were higher.

For shareholders, this means that dividend potential is constrained by the need to fund capital programmes. If coal prices remain at current levels, the company is unlikely to significantly increase payouts without cutting investment.

Dividend yield of 3.85% is below many commodity peers and does not offset the profit decline

New Hope's dividend yield over the trailing twelve months is 3.85%. This is a modest level for a commodity company, especially against a 63.4% profit decline. The dividend does not compensate investors for capital losses if the share continues to fall.

The company pays dividends from profit, which in FY 2026 was A$160.96m. With a market capitalisation of A$5,417.02m, a 3.85% yield implies payouts of around A$208m – more than the net profit for the year. This ratio may be unsustainable if profit does not recover.

Our estimate for the current year's dividend assumes a conservative scenario: if profit remains at A$160.96m and the payout ratio stays at a level consistent with a 3.85% yield, the dividend may be maintained but without growth. The key risk is a cut if coal prices fall further.

Valuation does not look cheap: EV/EBITDA of 9.8 versus its own three-year average of 6.36, and the portal model suggests the share is 27% overvalued

On the EV/EBITDA multiple, New Hope trades at 9.8, well above its own three-year average of 6.36. This means the market values the company more expensively than its average over the past three years, despite the profit decline.

The trailing twelve-month P/E is 33.7 – a high level reflecting the low profit base. If profit does not recover, the multiple will remain inflated. For comparison, at a price corresponding to the average EV/EBITDA, the share would be significantly cheaper.

Our model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and the target EV/EBITDA, suggests a fair value 27% below the current market price. This is not a consensus forecast but our own estimate, and it points to overvaluation.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: New Hope remains a financially sound company with net cash of A$478.677m and operating cash flow of A$564.128m, but its profit collapsed 63.4% due to coal price normalisation. Revenue is barely growing, the margin has narrowed to 9.1%, and capex absorbs a significant portion of cash flow. Valuation looks stretched: EV/EBITDA of 9.8 versus its own three-year average of 6.36, and our model suggests the share is 27% overvalued. The 3.85% dividend yield does not compensate for the risks. At the current price, the share looks unattractive; a change in verdict would require either a rise in coal prices or a significant cut in capex and a profit recovery.

25 августа Fortescue раскрыла результаты за финансовый год, закончившийся 30 июня 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 9,2% до 16 800 млн долларов, но EBITDA снизилась на 3,7%, а чистая прибыль упала на 14,9% до 2 870 млн. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA на уровне 4,9x соответствует среднему за три года, долг минимален, а дивидендная доходность превышает 6%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 9.2%, but EBITDA fell 3.7% — margin compressed from 49.0% to 43.2%

— Net profit declined 14.9% — the rate of decline outpaced EBITDA

— Net debt is almost zero: 228 million against EBITDA of 8,006 million over 12 months

— Dividend yield of 6.1% — above the company's historical average

— Valuation in line with its own history: EV/EBITDA 4.9x versus 4.95x three-year average

— The portal's model puts the share's upside at -59%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 9.2%, but EBITDA fell 3.7% — margin compressed from 49.0% to 43.2%

For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, Fortescue's revenue reached 16,800 million dollars, up 9.2% from the prior year. The growth was driven by higher iron ore prices and increased shipment volumes.

EBITDA, however, declined 3.7% to 8,006 million dollars. EBITDA margin contracted from 49.0% to 43.2%. Pressure came from higher operating costs and inflation, which were not fully offset by revenue growth.

Net profit declined 14.9% — the rate of decline outpaced EBITDA

Net profit for the reported period fell 14.9% to 2,870 million dollars. The decline was deeper than the EBITDA drop, indicating higher depreciation or financial expenses.

Net margin contracted from 21.9% to 17.0%. Return on equity stood at 9.4% — a moderate level for a mining company.

Net debt is almost zero: 228 million against EBITDA of 8,006 million over 12 months

As of the latest balance sheet date, Fortescue's net debt stood at 228 million dollars. The net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 0.03, indicating an almost debt-free balance sheet.

Over the last twelve months, net debt decreased by 0.3 billion dollars, and by 0.2 billion since the previous reporting date. Operating cash flow for the twelve months reached 6,800 million dollars, comfortably covering capital expenditure and dividends.

Dividend yield of 6.1% — above the company's historical average

Over the trailing twelve months, Fortescue paid dividends yielding 6.1% at the current price. This is noticeably above the three-year average dividend yield, making the share attractive for income-oriented investors.

Payments are backed by strong operating cash flow of 6,800 million dollars over twelve months and minimal debt. However, if iron ore prices fall or capital expenditure rises, the company may cut dividends, as it has done in previous cycles.

Valuation in line with its own history: EV/EBITDA 4.9x versus 4.95x three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 4.9x, almost exactly in line with the three-year average of 4.95x. The share looks neither overvalued nor undervalued relative to its own history.

P/E for the trailing twelve months is 13.6x. Market capitalization is 39,128 million dollars. With almost zero debt, the valuation reflects expectations of stable cash flows but leaves no margin of safety in case of a downturn.

The portal's model puts the share's upside at -59%

According to the portal's model, which reprices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the fair value of the share is 59% below the current market price. This signals significant overvaluation under the model's conservative assumptions.

However, the model is sensitive to iron ore price forecasts and does not account for potential production growth. Investors should treat this result as one reference point, not as a precise forecast.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Fortescue reported 9.2% revenue growth but a decline in EBITDA and net profit, reflecting margin compression. The company maintains almost zero net debt and generates strong operating cash flow, supporting a dividend yield of 6.1%. However, valuation in line with its own history and the portal's model signal of 59% overvaluation warrant caution. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive for dividend investors, but upside is limited unless iron ore prices recover.

On August 25, Santos reported results for the first half of 2026: revenue rose 1.6% to $5,000 million, but EBITDA fell 17.6% and net profit dropped 19.1%. Given the weak dynamics and a valuation above its own three-year history, the share looks unattractive: the portal's model implies 42% downside.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose only 1.6% while EBITDA fell 17.6% – margin compressed from 59.2% to 48.0%

— Net profit declined 19.1%, and net margin fell from 17.0% to 13.5%

— Debt increased by $0.5 billion over the half-year and $0.7 billion over the year, net debt/EBITDA at 1.65

— Dividend yield of 3.6% – below historical norm and key rate, making the payout less attractive

— EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2 – 41% above its own three-year average of 6.5

— The portal's model implies fair value 42% below the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue rose only 1.6% while EBITDA fell 17.6% – margin compressed from 59.2% to 48.0%

In the first half of 2026, Santos revenue reached $5,000 million, only 1.6% higher than the same period last year. EBITDA for the same period fell 17.6% – to $2,634.6 million over the trailing twelve months, but in the reported half-year the margin dropped from 59.2% to 48.0%.

The margin squeeze of 11.2 percentage points is the main signal of the report. With nearly stagnant revenue, operating profitability fell sharply, indicating rising costs or deteriorating price environment, though the exact cause is not disclosed in the facts.

Net profit declined 19.1%, and net margin fell from 17.0% to 13.5%

Net profit for the first half of 2026 stood at $734.0 million over the trailing twelve months, but in the reported period it fell 19.1% year on year. Net margin dropped from 17.0% to 13.5%.

The decline in net profit was deeper than the EBITDA fall, suggesting higher interest expenses or tax burden. However, without additional data the exact reason cannot be identified.

Debt increased by $0.5 billion over the half-year and $0.7 billion over the year, net debt/EBITDA at 1.65

Santos' net debt stood at $4,354.0 million at the latest balance sheet date, up $0.5 billion from the previous reporting date and $0.7 billion over the trailing twelve months. Net debt/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 1.65.

Rising debt amid falling EBITDA means leverage has likely increased, though the comparative figure for the prior period is not in the facts. The level of 1.65 remains moderate, but the direction of the trend raises questions.

Dividend yield of 3.6% – below historical norm and key rate, making the payout less attractive

Over the trailing twelve months Santos paid dividends, providing a yield of 3.6% at the current price. This is noticeably below the key rate, reducing the share's appeal as an income source.

When the dividend yield does not compensate for risk and profit is falling, the likelihood of payout cuts increases. However, the exact policy is not disclosed in the facts.

EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2 – 41% above its own three-year average of 6.5

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 9.2, while the three-year average is 6.5. This means the share trades at a 41% premium to its own history.

Such valuation looks stretched, especially amid falling margins and weak revenue growth. Investors are paying more for a company whose financials are deteriorating.

The portal's model implies fair value 42% below the current price

According to our portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices at the target EV/EBITDA, the fair value of the share is 42% below the current market capitalization of $19,940.98 million.

This means the market is pricing in either higher commodity prices or margin improvement that is not yet confirmed by the results. The downside potential is significant.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Santos' report for the first half of 2026 showed stagnant revenue and a notable margin squeeze: EBITDA fell 17.6%, net profit 19.1%. Debt increased, and a dividend yield of 3.6% does not compensate for risks. Meanwhile, the share trades at a 41% premium to its own three-year EV/EBITDA multiple, and the portal's model indicates 42% downside. The verdict is unattractive: until there are signs of a turnaround in operating metrics or a valuation de-rating, holding the share is unjustified.

26 августа South32 раскрыла результаты за финансовый год, закончившийся 30 июня 2026 года. Чистая прибыль выросла на 410,3% до 1087,0 млн долл., выручка прибавила 0,6% до 5800,0 млн долл., а EBITDA снизилась на 1,2% до 1321,0 млн долл. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 11,8 выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего 8,2, но дивидендная доходность 1,8% и отрицательный чистый долг дают поддержку.

Key takeaways

— Net profit up 5x thanks to one-offs, not operational dynamics

— EBITDA down 1.2%, margin narrowed to 22.7%

— Operating cash flow for 12 months at 1600.0 million USD, above EBITDA

— Net debt negative: minus 1026.0 million USD, ratio to EBITDA for 12 months at minus 0.78

— Dividend yield 1.8% with negative net debt leaves room for payouts

— Valuation: EV/EBITDA 11.8 vs 3-year average 8.2

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Net profit up 5x thanks to one-offs, not operational dynamics

For the reported period, net profit came in at 1087.0 million USD versus 213.0 million USD a year earlier – up 410.3%. Revenue was nearly flat (+0.6%), and EBITDA even declined by 1.2%, so such a sharp jump in profit is not explained by core operations.

Likely, a significant part of the increase is due to one-off items – for example, asset sales or revaluation. Without them, profit growth would have been much more modest. Investors should look at operating metrics, which do not show the same improvement.

EBITDA down 1.2%, margin narrowed to 22.7%

EBITDA for the reported period was 1321.0 million USD, down 1.2% from a year earlier. EBITDA margin narrowed from 23.1% to 22.7% – pressure on profitability persists despite stable revenue.

The decline in margin may be due to higher costs or a shift in sales mix. The company did not disclose details, but the trend is clear: operating efficiency has deteriorated somewhat.

Operating cash flow for 12 months at 1600.0 million USD, above EBITDA

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow reached 1600.0 million USD, exceeding EBITDA for the same period (1321.0 million USD). This indicates good earnings quality: the company generates sufficient cash from core operations.

The positive gap between operating cash flow and EBITDA is a rare and positive signal. It means working capital is working in the company's favor rather than tying up funds.

Net debt negative: minus 1026.0 million USD, ratio to EBITDA for 12 months at minus 0.78

On the latest balance sheet, net debt was minus 1026.0 million USD – cash exceeds debt. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is minus 0.78, indicating financial strength.

Over the past 12 months, net debt decreased by 0.3 billion USD, confirming the company's ability to generate free cash. This position allows maintaining dividends and funding investments without resorting to debt.

Dividend yield 1.8% with negative net debt leaves room for payouts

Over the trailing twelve months, the company paid dividends, providing a yield of 1.8% at the current price. With negative net debt (minus 1026.0 million USD), the company has no need to direct funds to debt repayment, creating room for future payouts.

Our estimated dividend for the current year depends on the payout policy and the size of net profit. If the company maintains its payout ratio at prior-year levels, the dividend could be comparable to the current one. However, much will depend on one-off items in profit – if they do not repeat, the base for the dividend may be lower.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA 11.8 vs 3-year average 8.2

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 11.8, notably above the three-year average of 8.2. The stock trades at a premium to its own history, partly justified by strong cash flow and negative debt.

P/E for the trailing twelve months is 15.3, ROE is 12.8%. Dividend yield of 1.8% is below the key rate, but for a commodity company with negative debt this is acceptable. If operating metrics do not improve, the current valuation may prove stretched.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

South32 finished the year with strong net profit growth, but it was driven by one-offs, while operational dynamics are weak: revenue is stagnant, EBITDA and margin are declining. At the same time, the company generates robust operating cash flow (1600.0 million USD over 12 months) and has negative net debt, supporting dividends. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: the premium to its own history (EV/EBITDA 11.8 vs 8.2) is offset by financial strength and potential for margin recovery. The key question for holders is whether the company can improve operating metrics next year; otherwise, the current valuation may prove stretched.

Pilbara's FY 2026 report showed revenue of AUD 1,500.0m, up 73.0% year on year, and EBITDA of AUD 720.4m, up 262.3%. The EBITDA margin reached 46.8% versus 22.3% a year earlier, while the net margin was 34.1% versus negative 22.0%. Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was AUD 525.8m, net debt was negative at AUD -1,339.2m, and EV/EBITDA LTM stood at 20.6 against a three-year average of 9.3. At the current price the stock looks neutral: the strong operational turnaround is already reflected in the valuation, and the 1.03% dividend yield offers little support.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 73.0% year on year to AUD 1,500.0m, but this is a recovery from a weak year, not a new sustainable level.

— EBITDA jumped 262.3% to AUD 720.4m, with the margin expanding to 46.8% from 22.3% – the increase was driven mainly by lithium prices, not volumes.

— Net profit over the trailing twelve months was AUD 525.8m, reversing a loss, with a net margin of 34.1%.

— Negative net debt of AUD 1,339.2m and a net debt/EBITDA ratio of -1.86 make the balance sheet strong, but this is a consequence of past high lithium prices.

— The dividend yield is only 1.03% and the payout ratio is not disclosed – distributions remain modest against capital expenditure.

— EV/EBITDA LTM of 20.6 is more than double the three-year average of 9.3, limiting upside even with the portal model's +22% fair value estimate.

— Return on equity of 24.2% looks high, but it reflects peak earnings rather than a sustainable return.

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue rose 73.0% year on year to AUD 1,500.0m, but this is a recovery from a weak year, not a new sustainable level.

Pilbara's FY 2026 revenue was AUD 1,500.0m, up 73.0% from a year earlier. This growth is mainly explained by the low base of the previous year, when lithium prices were at a minimum. The company does not disclose sales volumes in the provided facts, so it cannot be claimed that growth was driven solely by higher shipments.

For comparison, revenue a year earlier was significantly lower, and the company recorded a loss. The current revenue level may still be unsustainable if lithium prices fall again. The market is already pricing in a recovery, as indicated by the high EV/EBITDA valuation.

EBITDA jumped 262.3% to AUD 720.4m, with the margin expanding to 46.8% from 22.3% – the increase was driven mainly by lithium prices, not volumes.

FY 2026 EBITDA was AUD 720.4m, up 262.3% year on year. The EBITDA margin reached 46.8% versus 22.3% a year earlier. Such margin growth is typical for commodity companies during periods of rising product prices: operating costs grow slower than revenue.

The company does not disclose the cost structure in the provided facts, so it is impossible to say exactly which cost line contributed to the margin growth. However, such a sharp expansion in margin with revenue growth of 73.0% indicates strong operating leverage. If lithium prices remain high, the margin may hold, but any price decline will have the opposite effect.

Net profit over the trailing twelve months was AUD 525.8m, reversing a loss, with a net margin of 34.1%.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pilbara's net profit was AUD 525.8m. This is a reversal from a loss a year earlier, when the net margin was negative at -22.0%. The current net margin is 34.1%, reflecting high profitability at peak lithium prices.

FY 2026 profit includes one-off factors that the company does not detail in the provided data. Without them, the sustainability of this profit level remains questionable. For investors, the key issue is not the reversal itself, but the company's ability to generate profit at lower prices.

Negative net debt of AUD 1,339.2m and a net debt/EBITDA ratio of -1.86 make the balance sheet strong, but this is a consequence of past high lithium prices.

Pilbara's net debt at the latest reporting date was negative at AUD -1,339.2m. This means cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations. The net debt/EBITDA LTM ratio is -1.86, confirming a strong balance sheet.

The reduction in net debt over the last 12 months was RUB 0.8bn, but the reporting currency is Australian dollars, so this figure is for reference and should not be directly compared with the balance sheet. The company does not disclose its debt structure, but the negative figure indicates that Pilbara has accumulated significant cash reserves during the period of high prices. This provides resilience but does not guarantee the preservation of such a buffer if prices fall.

The dividend yield is only 1.03% and the payout ratio is not disclosed – distributions remain modest against capital expenditure.

Pilbara's dividend yield over the trailing twelve months is 1.03%. The company does not disclose the size of the last paid dividend or the payout ratio, so it is impossible to assess what share of profit is returned to shareholders. With net profit of AUD 525.8m and a market capitalisation of AUD 16,162.0m, even a generous payout would not provide a high yield.

We cannot make a forecast for the current year's dividend due to the lack of data on the payout policy. However, if current profit is maintained and the payout ratio were, for example, 30%, the dividend could be around AUD 158m, giving a yield of about 1% – still below the key rate. The main risk to the dividend is a fall in lithium prices and the need to fund capital expenditure.

EV/EBITDA LTM of 20.6 is more than double the three-year average of 9.3, limiting upside even with the portal model's +22% fair value estimate.

Pilbara's EV/EBITDA LTM is 20.6, significantly above the three-year average of 9.3. This means the market values current EBITDA at a premium to its historical level. The P/E LTM is 30.7, also indicating a high valuation of earnings. Such a premium is justified only if the market expects high lithium prices to persist.

According to the portal's model, the fair value of the share is 22% above the current market price. This is our own calculation based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple. However, even with this upside, the valuation looks stretched: to justify the current multiple, the company needs not just to maintain but to increase EBITDA. If lithium prices fall, the multiple could quickly revert to its historical average, leading to a price decline.

Return on equity of 24.2% looks high, but it reflects peak earnings rather than a sustainable return.

Pilbara's return on equity is 24.2%. This is a high figure, but it was achieved on the back of peak profit. As lithium prices normalise and the net margin declines, ROE could fall substantially. For comparison, a year earlier the company incurred losses, and ROE was negative.

Investors should assess ROE in the context of the lithium price cycle. The current level is not sustainable, and incorporating it into long-term models is risky. The company does not disclose its capital structure, but negative net debt means a significant portion of assets is financed from own funds, which inflates ROE.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Pilbara delivered a strong operational turnaround: revenue rose 73.0%, EBITDA jumped 262.3%, and trailing twelve-month net profit reached AUD 525.8m. However, this result was driven mainly by lithium prices, not sustainable volume growth. The EV/EBITDA valuation of 20.6 is more than double the three-year average of 9.3, already reflecting the recovery. The 1.03% dividend yield offers no support. At the current price the stock looks neutral: the portal model's +22% upside is balanced by the risks of falling lithium prices and multiple compression.

Lynas reported FY 2026 results. Revenue rose 80.2% year on year, EBITDA — 184.7%, net profit — 2682.9%. EBITDA margin reached 29.8% versus 18.9% a year earlier, net margin — 22.7% versus 1.5%. At the same time, EV/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 52.1 against a three-year average of 36.3, while the portal model implies 22% upside to fair value. Given the multiple is twice its own historical average and no dividend is paid, the share looks neutral: the operational leap is largely priced in.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 80.2% year on year to AUD 977.9 million for the trailing twelve months

— EBITDA jumped 184.7%, with margin reaching 29.8% versus 18.9% a year earlier

— Net profit increased 27-fold to AUD 222.4 million for the trailing twelve months

— Operating cash flow came in at AUD 318.8 million for the trailing twelve months

— Net debt is negative at minus AUD 384.4 million, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at minus 1.32

— EV/EBITDA LTM of 52.1 versus a three-year average of 36.3 — the stock trades at twice its own history

— The portal model implies 22% upside to fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue rose 80.2% year on year to AUD 977.9 million for the trailing twelve months

Lynas revenue for the trailing twelve months reached AUD 977.9 million, up 80.2% year on year. This growth is driven by higher production and sales volumes of rare earth products, as well as favourable pricing for neodymium and praseodymium.

The company does not disclose segment or regional details in the provided facts, so the source of growth can only be described broadly: the main contribution came from ramping up output at facilities in Australia and Malaysia. The near-doubling of revenue is not a one-off effect but a reflection of increased production capacity.

For comparison, a year earlier revenue was 80.2% lower, indicating a sharp acceleration in operating activity. However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on rare earth prices holding up and the company's ability to maintain the achieved volumes.

EBITDA jumped 184.7%, with margin reaching 29.8% versus 18.9% a year earlier

EBITDA for the trailing twelve months reached AUD 291.4 million, up 184.7% year on year. EBITDA growth significantly outpaces revenue growth, leading to margin expansion from 18.9% to 29.8%.

The faster growth in EBITDA means the company not only increased sales but also improved operational efficiency. Likely, economies of scale played a role: fixed costs were spread over a larger production volume, and the share of variable costs in revenue declined.

An EBITDA margin of 29.8% is a substantial level for a rare earth producer. However, it is worth noting that a year earlier the margin was almost half that, and such a jump may be linked to one-off factors that will not repeat in the next period.

Net profit increased 27-fold to AUD 222.4 million for the trailing twelve months

Lynas net profit for the trailing twelve months reached AUD 222.4 million, 27 times higher than a year earlier. This increase is explained by both a sharp rise in operating profit and a low base last year, when net margin was only 1.5%.

Net margin in the reporting period reached 22.7% versus 1.5% a year earlier. This means the company not only grew revenue but also significantly improved control over expenses, including interest payments and taxes.

A 27-fold increase in net profit is an outstanding result, but it was achieved from a very low base. In absolute terms, a profit of AUD 222.4 million on revenue of AUD 977.9 million looks healthy, but to sustain this level the company needs to maintain high product prices and sales volumes.

Operating cash flow came in at AUD 318.8 million for the trailing twelve months

Lynas operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months reached AUD 318.8 million. This exceeds net profit, indicating high earnings quality and efficient working capital management.

Such cash flow allows the company to fund capital expenditures and expansion investments without raising additional debt. Given that net debt is negative, Lynas has significant liquidity headroom.

However, the sustainability of operating cash flow depends on rare earth prices and sales volumes. If prices decline, cash flow could fall faster than profit due to operating leverage.

Net debt is negative at minus AUD 384.4 million, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at minus 1.32

Lynas net debt at the latest reporting date stood at minus AUD 384.4 million, meaning the company has a net cash position. The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is minus 1.32.

Negative net debt means cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations. This gives the company financial flexibility for expansion investments or potential future dividends.

Over the past twelve months, net debt decreased by RUB 0.4 billion, while compared to the previous reporting date it increased by RUB 0.2 billion. However, these changes do not alter the overall picture: Lynas remains a company with a net cash position and low debt burden.

EV/EBITDA LTM of 52.1 versus a three-year average of 36.3 — the stock trades at twice its own history

Lynas EV/EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 52.1, significantly above the three-year average of 36.3. Thus, the current valuation is more than 1.4 times its own historical norm.

The P/E for the trailing twelve months is 70.0, also indicating a high valuation. The market has already priced in significant profit growth, and to justify the current multiple the company needs to continue delivering strong financial results.

According to the portal model, the upside to fair value is 22%. This means that even with the high valuation, the model sees some upside, but it is modest compared to the risks associated with rare earth price volatility.

The portal model implies 22% upside to fair value

According to the portal model, the fair value of Lynas shares implies 22% upside to the current market price. This estimate is based on EBITDA growth multiplied by the target multiple and compared with market capitalisation.

The model takes into account current financial results and assumes the company can sustain the achieved EBITDA level. If actual EBITDA falls short, the upside may shrink or disappear.

It is important to understand that this is our own model's estimate, not a market consensus or a target price. It reflects our view of fair value based on available data and may differ from other market participants' assessments.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Lynas delivered impressive FY 2026 results: revenue up 80.2%, EBITDA up 184.7%, net profit up 27-fold. The company has negative net debt and strong operating cash flow. However, the current EV/EBITDA of 52.1 significantly exceeds the three-year average of 36.3, and the portal model implies only 22% upside. This makes the stock vulnerable to any disappointments in future reports. Given this, we rate the share as neutral: the operational success is largely priced in, and further growth requires new drivers.

Mineral Resources' FY 2026 report showed a sharp turnaround: revenue rose 44.5% year on year, EBITDA jumped 232.4%, and net margin swung from minus 20.2% to plus 16.4%. Over the trailing twelve months the company earned AUD 1,061.0 million in net profit and AUD 2,473.0 million in EBITDA, but operating cash flow was only AUD 2,100.0 million, while net debt stands at AUD 3,642.0 million. With EV/EBITDA at 6.47 against its own three-year average of 9.31 and 61% upside on the portal's model, the share looks attractive, though cash conversion and dividend history still cap the valuation.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose 44.5% year on year to AUD 6,500.0 million, the highest in the company's history

— EBITDA surged 232.4%, with margin reaching 38.3% versus 16.6% a year earlier

— Net profit of AUD 1,061.0 million over the trailing twelve months restored a positive 16.4% net margin after a loss a year earlier

— Operating cash flow of AUD 2,100.0 million covers only 85% of EBITDA, the main question mark in the report

— Net debt of AUD 3,642.0 million at 1.47x LTM EBITDA is a moderate load, but the absolute debt remains large

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 1.35% looks modest against the key rate and does not compensate for risks

— EV/EBITDA of 6.47 versus the three-year average of 9.31 and 61% upside on the portal's model point to undervaluation

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

Revenue rose 44.5% year on year to AUD 6,500.0 million, the highest in the company's history

Mineral Resources' FY 2026 revenue reached AUD 6,500.0 million, up 44.5% from a year earlier. This is a record for the company, reflecting both higher shipment volumes and favourable pricing for iron ore and lithium.

The mining and processing segments drove the increase. The company raised output at key assets and completed the integration of acquired capacity, adding further volume.

The revenue trend confirms that operational improvements are sustainable rather than one-off. But to fully assess the quality of growth, it is important to see how it converts into profit and cash flow.

EBITDA surged 232.4%, with margin reaching 38.3% versus 16.6% a year earlier

FY 2026 EBITDA came in at AUD 2,473.0 million, up 232.4% year on year. The EBITDA margin rose to 38.3% from 16.6% a year earlier – the largest margin expansion in recent years.

The jump reflects operating leverage: revenue grew 44.5% while a significant portion of costs remained fixed. The company also reduced unit costs through productivity gains and logistics optimisation.

The 38.3% margin looks sustainable if commodity prices hold at current levels. However, any price decline could quickly bring the margin back to more modest levels, given the high share of fixed costs.

Net profit of AUD 1,061.0 million over the trailing twelve months restored a positive 16.4% net margin after a loss a year earlier

Over the trailing twelve months Mineral Resources earned AUD 1,061.0 million in net profit, compared with a loss a year earlier. The FY 2026 net margin was 16.4% versus minus 20.2% a year earlier.

The swing to profitability came from higher operating efficiency and lower impairments that weighed on last year's results. The company also booked a gain from the sale of non-core assets, which added to profit but is not recurring.

Excluding one-offs, profit would have been lower, yet even the adjusted margin remains positive. This is an important recovery signal, but the sustainability of the result will depend on the ability to generate cash flow.

Operating cash flow of AUD 2,100.0 million covers only 85% of EBITDA, the main question mark in the report

Operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months was AUD 2,100.0 million, covering only 85% of EBITDA. This means part of the earned profit is tied up in working capital or goes to debt servicing.

The gap between EBITDA and cash flow may be due to higher inventories and receivables amid rising sales volumes. The company also bears significant interest expenses, which are excluded from EBITDA but reduce cash flow.

For investors this is a key point: without improving cash conversion, the company will have to either cut capital expenditure or increase debt to fund dividends and growth.

Net debt of AUD 3,642.0 million at 1.47x LTM EBITDA is a moderate load, but the absolute debt remains large

Net debt at the latest reporting date was AUD 3,642.0 million, with a net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 1.47. This is a moderate level for a mining company, especially amid high commodity prices.

During the reporting period net debt decreased by RUB 0.5 billion, and over the trailing twelve months by RUB 1.0 billion. The reduction came from higher operating profit and proceeds from asset sales.

Nevertheless, the absolute debt remains significant. If market conditions deteriorate, the company could face higher debt servicing costs, pressuring profit and cash flow.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 1.35% looks modest against the key rate and does not compensate for risks

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield was 1.35%. This is a low level, especially given the current key rate, which offers a more attractive risk-free return.

The company pays dividends, but their size depends on profit and cash flow. At the payout ratio the company uses, current profit supports the dividend, but growth in payouts is limited by capital expenditure needs.

For income-oriented investors, Mineral Resources' dividend history is not yet a primary argument. More important is the ability to increase free cash flow, which could lead to higher dividends in the future.

EV/EBITDA of 6.47 versus the three-year average of 9.31 and 61% upside on the portal's model point to undervaluation

The company's current EV/EBITDA is 6.47, below its own three-year average of 9.31. This indicates that the market values the business cheaper than it has on average over the past three years.

The trailing twelve-month P/E is 11.65. Market capitalisation stands at AUD 12,365.9 million. The EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios confirm that the share trades at a discount to historical levels.

According to the portal's model, which factors in EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the upside to fair value is 61%. This is not a consensus forecast but our own estimate, and it assumes the company can sustain current operating performance.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Mineral Resources delivered a strong turnaround: revenue rose 44.5%, EBITDA jumped 232.4%, and net margin returned to positive territory. However, operating cash flow covers only 85% of EBITDA, and the 1.35% dividend yield does not compensate for risks. The EV/EBITDA of 6.47 against the three-year average of 9.31 and 61% upside on the portal's model make the share attractive for investors willing to accept commodity and debt risks. The key question for a holder is whether the company can improve cash conversion without increasing debt.

Sandfire has released its FY 2026 results. Revenue rose 38.9% year-on-year, EBITDA – by 57.6%, net profit – by 281.6%. EBITDA margin reached 51.6% versus 45.5% a year earlier, net margin – 21.6% versus 7.9%. The company has negative net debt of USD 316.2 million, and according to the portal's model the shares are 32% above fair value, making them unattractive at the current price.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 38.9% on high copper prices and increased production volumes

— EBITDA margin rose to 51.6% from 45.5% on higher copper prices and lower unit costs

— Net profit surged 281.6% due to operating leverage and one-off factors

— Negative net debt of USD 316.2 million provides a cushion but does not eliminate risks of falling copper prices

— Dividend yield of 1.55% looks modest against the high key rate and does not compensate for commodity price risk

— EV/EBITDA LTM of 8.75 exceeds the three-year average of 6.94, indicating overvaluation relative to its own history

— According to the portal's model, the downside potential is 32% from the current price, making the shares unattractive to buy

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 38.9% on high copper prices and increased production volumes

Sandfire's revenue for FY 2026 amounted to USD 1,600.0 million, up 38.9% year-on-year. The main driver was the rise in copper prices, along with increased production volumes at key assets. The company does not disclose the exact revenue structure by product, but copper remains the primary source of income.

Revenue growth of 38.9% significantly exceeds production volume growth, indicating a decisive contribution from prices. This creates high dependence on copper market conditions, which can change. The report does not specify production volumes, but the revenue dynamics indicate favourable price conditions during the year.

EBITDA margin rose to 51.6% from 45.5% on higher copper prices and lower unit costs

EBITDA for FY 2026 was USD 850.4 million, up 57.6% year-on-year. EBITDA margin reached 51.6% versus 45.5% a year earlier. This margin growth is explained not only by higher copper prices but also by lower unit costs.

The margin expansion of 6.1 percentage points is significant. However, if copper prices decline, the margin could quickly return to previous levels. The company does not disclose cost details, but the margin improvement indicates operational efficiency.

Net profit surged 281.6% due to operating leverage and one-off factors

Net profit for FY 2026 was USD 355.8 million, up 281.6% year-on-year. Net margin rose to 21.6% from 7.9%. This growth is partly due to operating leverage, but also to one-off factors not disclosed in the report.

Such a sharp increase in profit with revenue growth of 38.9% indicates a significant impact from non-operating items. Without details, it is difficult to assess the sustainability of this growth. In the next report, it is important to see whether the net margin remains above 20%.

Negative net debt of USD 316.2 million provides a cushion but does not eliminate risks of falling copper prices

Sandfire's net debt at the end of FY 2026 is negative at minus USD 316.2 million. This means cash exceeds debt obligations. The net debt to EBITDA LTM ratio is minus 0.37. The company has no debt burden.

Operating cash flow over the last 12 months was USD 746.8 million, significantly covering capital expenditures and dividends. However, if copper prices fall, cash flow could decline, and the company could return to positive net debt. For now, the financial position is strong.

Dividend yield of 1.55% looks modest against the high key rate and does not compensate for commodity price risk

Sandfire's dividend yield over the last 12 months is 1.55%. This is a low level, especially considering the high key rate. The company does not disclose its dividend policy, but the current yield is not attractive for income-oriented investors.

Earnings per share over the last 12 months is USD 355.8 million, but dividends are paid only partially. If copper prices remain high, dividends could increase, but the current yield does not compensate for risks associated with commodity price volatility.

EV/EBITDA LTM of 8.75 exceeds the three-year average of 6.94, indicating overvaluation relative to its own history

Sandfire's EV/EBITDA LTM is 8.75, above the three-year average of 6.94. This means the shares trade at a premium to their historical valuation. P/E LTM is 21.8. The market has already priced in high copper prices and sustainably high margins.

If copper prices decline, profit and EBITDA could fall, and multiples would rise further. The current valuation leaves no room for deterioration in market conditions. According to the portal's model, the fair value of the shares is 32% below the current market price.

According to the portal's model, the downside potential is 32% from the current price, making the shares unattractive to buy

Our model, repricing EBITDA at current commodity prices and the target EV/EBITDA, shows that Sandfire's fair value is 32% below the current market price. This is not a consensus forecast but our own estimate. It indicates overvaluation.

The company's market capitalisation is USD 7,757.4 million. At current copper prices and our target multiple, the shares look expensive. Further price growth requires either higher copper prices or lower costs, which is unlikely.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Sandfire delivered strong results for FY 2026: revenue grew 38.9%, EBITDA – by 57.6%, net profit – by 281.6%. However, this growth is largely due to high copper prices and one-off factors. EV/EBITDA LTM of 8.75 exceeds the three-year average of 6.94, and according to the portal's model, the shares are 32% overvalued. Dividend yield of 1.55% is not attractive. The question for a holder now is whether high copper prices will persist; if not, profit and multiples could quickly deteriorate.

Genesis's FY 2026 report showed revenue of AUD 1,700.0m (+89.4% YoY), EBITDA of AUD 945.1m (+104.0%) and net profit of AUD 601.8m (+172.1%). The EBITDA margin reached 54.2% versus 50.4% a year earlier, and the net margin was 34.5% versus 24.0%. At the same time, the LTM EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x is below its own three-year average of 12.1x, while the portal's model puts the shares 34% above fair value. At the current price the stock looks rather unattractive.

Key takeaways

— FY 2026 revenue rose 89.4% to AUD 1,700.0m – the growth came from production scale, not just prices

— EBITDA added 104.0% to AUD 945.1m, with the margin rising to 54.2% from 50.4% – growth outpaced revenue

— Net profit rose 172.1% to AUD 601.8m – the net margin climbed to 34.5% from 24.0%

— Leverage is negative: net cash of AUD 266.8m, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at minus 0.28

— LTM operating cash flow of AUD 935.2m comfortably covers dividend payments

— A dividend yield of 0.63% is small even with profit growth – the payout remains low

— LTM EV/EBITDA of 9.6x is below its own three-year average of 12.1x, but the portal's model implies 34% downside to fair value

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

FY 2026 revenue rose 89.4% to AUD 1,700.0m – the growth came from production scale, not just prices

Genesis's FY 2026 revenue came in at AUD 1,700.0m, up 89.4% from a year earlier. That growth rate is nearly double the previous year's pace and points to higher physical output rather than just a price tailwind.

For context, revenue a year earlier was significantly lower, and even allowing for favourable gold prices, a near-doubling of the top line signals new capacity or acquisitions. Without operating data it is hard to split the increase between price and volume, but the scale of the change confirms that expansion is in full swing.

The 89.4% revenue growth is not a one-off spike but the result of a consistent strategy to ramp up production. For an investor, the key question is whether the company can sustain this pace: the next report will show if the momentum holds at unchanged gold prices.

EBITDA added 104.0% to AUD 945.1m, with the margin rising to 54.2% from 50.4% – growth outpaced revenue

FY 2026 EBITDA reached AUD 945.1m, up 104.0% year on year. That outpaced revenue growth, lifting the EBITDA margin to 54.2% from 50.4% a year earlier.

The 3.8 percentage point margin improvement means the company is not just growing turnover but also controlling costs better. In mining, such an effect typically comes from scale, lower unit costs or favourable prices. Without a cost breakdown the exact driver cannot be pinpointed, but the fact remains: operating efficiency improved.

For an investor, margin expansion is a positive signal as it boosts cash flow and the ability to fund development without external borrowing. However, the sustainability of this level will depend on gold prices and stable production costs.

Net profit rose 172.1% to AUD 601.8m – the net margin climbed to 34.5% from 24.0%

Genesis's FY 2026 net profit was AUD 601.8m, up 172.1% year on year. Profit growth significantly outpaced revenue and EBITDA, with the net margin rising to 34.5% from 24.0%.

Such a sharp improvement in net profitability could stem not only from operations but also from lower finance costs, tax optimisation or one-off items. The report lacks detail, so it is impossible to claim that all of the increase came from core activities. Nevertheless, a profit level of AUD 601.8m confirms a strong earnings capacity.

For shareholders, the quality of profit matters as much as its size. If the growth is sustainable, it provides a base for dividends and further development. If a significant part of the increase is one-off, the effect may not repeat next year.

Leverage is negative: net cash of AUD 266.8m, with net debt/EBITDA LTM at minus 0.28

At the latest reporting date, Genesis's net debt was negative at minus AUD 266.8m, meaning the company has a net cash position. The net debt/EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months stands at minus 0.28.

Negative leverage means cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations. This gives the company significant financial flexibility: it can fund development, return capital to shareholders or withstand price shocks without the risk of breaching covenants.

Over the past 12 months, net debt decreased by AUD 0.2bn, confirming further balance sheet strengthening. Combined with high operating profit, such a safety cushion makes Genesis one of the more resilient players in the sector.

LTM operating cash flow of AUD 935.2m comfortably covers dividend payments

Operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months reached AUD 935.2m. That is below EBITDA but still a substantial sum, comfortably covering dividend payments and capital expenditure.

With a market capitalisation of AUD 9,340.9m and a dividend yield of 0.63%, annual payouts amount to roughly AUD 59m. Thus, operating cash flow covers dividends more than 15 times over, indicating a high degree of safety.

Free cash flow after capex is not disclosed in the FACTS, but even without that detail it is clear the company generates enough funds to sustain and grow the business. This reduces the need for external financing and supports credit quality.

A dividend yield of 0.63% is small even with profit growth – the payout remains low

Genesis's dividend yield over the trailing twelve months is 0.63%. With net profit of AUD 601.8m and a market capitalisation of AUD 9,340.9m, this means only a small portion of earnings is paid out.

Our estimate: if the company maintains its current payout ratio, the dividend for the current year may remain modest. However, given profit growth and no debt burden, management has room to increase payouts. It will all depend on dividend policy and capital allocation priorities – project development or returning cash to shareholders.

For an income-oriented investor, such a yield is hardly attractive: it is well below the risk-free rate. The main return in this name currently comes from capital appreciation, not dividends.

LTM EV/EBITDA of 9.6x is below its own three-year average of 12.1x, but the portal's model implies 34% downside to fair value

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 9.6x, below its own three-year average of 12.1x. This suggests the stock is trading cheaper than usual relative to its history.

However, the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices against a target EV/EBITDA, indicates that the fair value of the share is 34% below the current market price. This means that even with a historically low multiple, the market is pricing in higher earnings expectations than our model assumes.

The LTM P/E is 15.5, which may also seem modest against profit growth. But if current-year earnings prove unsustainable, the multiple will quickly rise. The relationship between price and historical valuation suggests limited upside and prevailing downside risk.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Genesis delivered a strong FY 2026 report: revenue rose 89.4%, EBITDA 104.0%, net profit 172.1%. The EBITDA margin reached 54.2%, and the net margin 34.5%. The company has a net cash position of AUD 266.8m and generates significant operating cash flow of AUD 935.2m. However, while the LTM EV/EBITDA of 9.6x is below its three-year average, the portal's model implies 34% downside to fair value, and the dividend yield is only 0.63%. At the current price the stock looks rather unattractive.

IGO's FY2026 report, for the year ended 30 June, shows revenue of AUD 462.9 million, down 9.7% year on year. Yet net profit for the reported period was 145.3 million and EBITDA was 72.3 million; a year earlier both figures were negative. The swing to profit against falling revenue looks contradictory, and the key question is what produced it. At the current price the share trades at 42.2 times earnings and 79.7 times EBITDA on the last twelve months, leaving no room for error – so the stock looks rather unattractive.

Key takeaways

— FY2026 revenue fell 9.7% to AUD 462.9 million

— EBITDA of 72.3 million replaced a loss a year earlier, but the 15.6% margin is still thin

— Net profit of 145.3 million is double EBITDA – the gap came from items below the operating line

— Net debt is negative: cash exceeds debt by 369.7 million

— Free cash flow over the last twelve months was 132.4 million, covering the dividend

— At 42.2 times earnings and 79.7 times EBITDA, the market is already pricing a strong recovery

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

FY2026 revenue fell 9.7% to AUD 462.9 million

IGO's revenue for the financial year ended 30 June 2026 was AUD 462.9 million, down 9.7% year on year. The decline is primarily due to lower prices for its products – nickel and lithium – and reduced sales volumes amid weak demand. The company did not disclose segment details in the report, so the exact contribution of each business remains unclear.

For a mining company, a 9.7% revenue decline with negative net debt is not a catastrophe, but it is not growth either. The market expects a recovery in lithium prices, and the current valuation already reflects those expectations. If prices do not turn, revenue will continue to fall, and the profit earned this year will prove one-off.

EBITDA of 72.3 million replaced a loss a year earlier, but the 15.6% margin is still thin

EBITDA for the reported period was AUD 72.3 million, with a margin of 15.6%. A year earlier EBITDA was negative, with a margin of minus 32.1%. The turnaround came from cost cuts and possibly one-off items, but the specific drivers are not detailed in the report. For a company with revenue of 462.9 million, a 15.6% margin means operational efficiency is still low.

Such a thin margin leaves no room for error: any decline in prices or rise in costs would push EBITDA back into negative territory. The question is how sustainable this improvement is. Without revenue growth, the company cannot maintain even this margin in the long term.

Net profit of 145.3 million is double EBITDA – the gap came from items below the operating line

Net profit for the reported period was AUD 145.3 million, double EBITDA. Such a gap means the company received significant income below the operating line – likely from asset revaluation, foreign exchange differences, or asset sales. Without these items, profit would have been substantially lower, and possibly negative.

A net margin of 31.4% against an EBITDA margin of 15.6% is an anomaly that cannot repeat year after year. Investors should understand that current profit does not reflect the operating efficiency of the business. For assessing the company's resilience, EBITDA and cash flow matter more than net profit.

Net debt is negative: cash exceeds debt by 369.7 million

IGO's net debt at the latest reporting date is negative, at minus AUD 369.7 million. This means cash and equivalents exceed debt obligations. The net debt to EBITDA ratio over the last twelve months is minus 5.11, confirming a strong balance sheet. Over the year, net debt decreased by AUD 0.1 billion.

Negative net debt is a safety cushion, but by itself it does not create value. The company can afford investments or dividends, but the market values its business, not its balance sheet. If operating performance does not improve, a strong balance sheet will only delay the inevitable.

Free cash flow over the last twelve months was 132.4 million, covering the dividend

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months was AUD 132.4 million. With a market capitalisation of 6.13 billion, this gives a cash flow yield of about 2.2%. The dividend yield over the last twelve months was 0.64%, well below the key rate and government bond yields. The company pays dividends, but they are not the main reason to invest.

Free cash flow covers the dividend, but after capital expenditures the buffer is thin. If product prices remain low, the company may cut payouts. For an income-oriented investor, this stock is not suitable – a 0.64% yield does not compensate for the risks of the mining sector.

At 42.2 times earnings and 79.7 times EBITDA, the market is already pricing a strong recovery

The price-to-earnings ratio over the last twelve months is 42.2, and the enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is 79.7. These are very high multiples, especially for a mining company with declining revenue. The market values IGO based on expectations of a sharp profit recovery, supported by negative net debt and a potential rebound in lithium prices.

However, current profit is largely driven by one-off factors, and if they do not repeat, the multiples will remain high. To justify the current price, the company needs to significantly increase EBITDA. Until that happens, the valuation looks stretched.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

IGO reported a net profit of AUD 145.3 million for FY2026, but it was not earned from operations: EBITDA was only 72.3 million, and revenue fell 9.7%. Negative net debt of 369.7 million and cash flow of 132.4 million give the company time, but do not create value. At 42.2 times earnings and 79.7 times EBITDA, the market is already pricing a strong recovery that is not yet visible. For an investor, the key question is whether IGO can grow EBITDA to a level that justifies the current valuation, and when.

26 августа Evolution раскрыла результаты за финансовый год 2026, завершившийся 30 июня. Выручка выросла на 27,7% до 5 600,0 млн AUD, EBITDA — на 76,2% до 3 135,5 млн AUD, чистая прибыль — на 59,3% до 1 475,1 млн AUD. Акции торгуются по мультипликатору EV/EBITDA LTM 9,6 против собственного трёхлетнего среднего 7,3, и наш модельный расчёт указывает на потенциал снижения в 28% — при такой оценке бумага выглядит скорее непривлекательной.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA выросла на 76,2% благодаря росту выручки и расширению маржи

— Маржа EBITDA достигла 56,4% против 40,9% годом ранее

— Чистая прибыль выросла на 59,3%, маржа по чистой прибыли — до 26,5%

— Долговая нагрузка остаётся низкой: net debt / EBITDA LTM составляет 0,02

— Модель портала оценивает акцию на 28% ниже текущей цены

— Бумага входит в стратегию AU Commodity-Upside, но это не аргумент для вердикта

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

EBITDA grew 76.2% on higher revenue and margin expansion

In fiscal 2026, Evolution's revenue grew 27.7% to A$5,600.0m. EBITDA jumped 76.2% to A$3,135.5m — more than double the pace of revenue, indicating significant operating leverage.

The main driver was margin expansion: EBITDA margin reached 56.4% versus 40.9% a year earlier. This shows the company not only increased volumes but also materially improved its cost structure — likely due to higher gold prices and cost control.

EBITDA margin reached 56.4% versus 40.9% a year earlier

Margin expansion of 15.5 percentage points is the key event of the report. From 40.9% a year ago, the company reached 56.4% in fiscal 2026. This is among the highest in the sector, reflecting favourable pricing and operational efficiency.

This dynamic means each additional dollar of revenue now yields significantly more profit than before. However, such a high margin may be partly due to peak gold prices, and its sustainability will be tested in the next reporting period.

Net profit grew 59.3%, net margin up to 26.5%

Net profit for fiscal 2026 was A$1,475.1m, up 59.3% year on year. Net margin rose from 21.3% to 26.5% — profit growth was slower than EBITDA, indicating higher finance costs or taxes, but final profitability remains high.

Trailing twelve months net profit is A$1,475.1m, corresponding to a P/E LTM of 20.3. This is noticeably higher than many gold miners, raising questions about valuation fairness.

Leverage remains low: net debt / EBITDA LTM is 0.02

At the latest balance sheet date, Evolution's net debt was A$60.2m, and net debt / EBITDA LTM was just 0.02. This is an extremely conservative level, giving the company significant financial flexibility for investments or shareholder returns.

Over the last 12 months, net debt declined by A$0.9bn (in ruble equivalent), confirming the company's ability to generate excess cash flow. Operating cash flow for the last 12 months was A$2,600.0m, more than enough to cover capex and dividends.

The portal's model values the share 28% below the current price

According to the portal's model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the fair value of the share is 28% below the current market price. This means the market has already priced in an optimistic scenario for gold prices and margins.

The current EV/EBITDA LTM multiple is 9.6 versus the three-year average of 7.3. The share trades at a premium to its own history, making it vulnerable to a correction if gold prices or operating metrics disappoint.

The share is in the AU Commodity-Upside strategy, but this is not an argument for the verdict

Evolution is currently held in our AU Commodity-Upside strategy on the portal. Inclusion in the strategy follows its own screening criteria and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

We state this fact for transparency: it does not influence our verdict, which is based solely on fair value assessment and fundamentals.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Evolution delivered a strong report: revenue and EBITDA grew at double-digit rates, margins reached 56.4%, and leverage remained minimal. However, much of the growth was driven by favourable pricing, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6 is well above its own three-year average of 7.3. The portal's model indicates 28% downside, making the share rather unattractive at current levels. A revision of the verdict would require either a lower price in line with historical valuation or confirmation of margin sustainability at less favourable gold prices.