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AU Commodity-Upside

Live paper-track since 6 Jul 2026
Today-0.4%
CAGR (backtest)+11.6%
Sharpe0.60
maxDD-36.5%
vol22.1%
edge vs ASX 200+5.7%
Backtest vs ASX 200
By calendar year vs ASX 200
YearStratASX 200Δ
2026*+21.6%-0.4%+22.1%
2025+18.7%+6.6%+12.1%
2024-11.5%+7.4%-18.9%
2023-0.1%+8.9%-9.1%
2022+76.5%-6.5%+83.1%
2021+10.7%+13.2%-2.5%
2020+0.0%-1.1%+1.1%
2019*+0.0%+20.3%-20.3%
* partial year
⚠ point-in-time (survivorship-immune): monthly hold the 6 cheapest miners by as-of-date EV/EBITDA

Performance vs index

PeriodStrategyASX 200vs index
Day-0.4%+0.0%-0.5%
Week-1.6%+0.3%-1.8%
Month-9.1%-3.3%-5.8%

Portfolio (11 Sep 2026)

#HoldingWeightDayscore
1WDS
modelled potential -23%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.1%-23%
2WHC
modelled potential -25%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.1%-25%
3RRL
modelled potential -27%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-1.6%-27%
4YAL
modelled potential -27%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+0.9%-27%
5EVN
modelled potential -29%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-1.1%-29%
6GMD
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.6%-34%

Signal feed / trades

RebalanceSignalHoldingPrice (AUD)WeightResult
11 Sep 2026BuyGMD
Genesis Minerals
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.6516.7%—
SellNST
Northern Star Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -6%)
22.08—-3.5%
4 Sep 2026BuyNST
Northern Star Resources
modelled potential -6%; equal weight 16.7%.
22.8716.7%—
SellSFR
Sandfire Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -19%)
22.25—+17.2%
25 Aug 2026BuyWDS
Woodside Energy
modelled potential -22%; equal weight 16.7%.
32.2116.7%—
BuyWHC
Whitehaven Coal
modelled potential -27%; equal weight 16.7%.
8.10316.7%—
SellNST
Northern Star Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -2%)
24.22—+8.1%
SellGMD
Genesis Minerals
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -2%)
8.616—+21.6%
7 Aug 2026BuyNST
Northern Star Resources
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
22.4116.7%—
BuyRRL
Regis Resources
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.11116.7%—
BuyGMD
Genesis Minerals
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.08616.7%—
SellFMG
Fortescue
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -10%)
17.55—-4.0%
SellWDS
Woodside Energy
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -30%)
31.11—+8.7%
SellSTO
Santos
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -45%)
7.513—+0.8%
12 Jul 2026BuyFMG
Fortescue
modelled potential -10%; equal weight 16.7%.
18.2816.7%—
BuyEVN
Evolution Mining
modelled potential -23%; equal weight 16.7%.
11.2616.7%—
BuyWDS
Woodside Energy
modelled potential -30%; equal weight 16.7%.
28.6216.7%—
BuySTO
Santos
modelled potential -45%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.45416.7%—
SellNST
Northern Star Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -29%)
19.64—-8.6%
SellWHC
Whitehaven Coal
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -30%)
7.488—-0.1%
SellRRL
Regis Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -34%)
6.301—-3.6%
SellNHC
New Hope
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -34%)
4.975—-0.9%
6 Jul 2026
initial book
BuySFR
Sandfire Resources
modelled potential -6%; equal weight 16.7%.
18.9916.7%—
BuyYAL
Yancoal Australia
modelled potential -23%; equal weight 16.7%.
5.37916.7%—
BuyNST
Northern Star Resources
modelled potential -29%; equal weight 16.7%.
21.4916.7%—
BuyWHC
Whitehaven Coal
modelled potential -30%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.49816.7%—
BuyRRL
Regis Resources
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
6.53516.7%—
BuyNHC
New Hope
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
5.02216.7%—

Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.