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AU Commodity-Upside

Live paper-track since 6 Jul 2026
Today+6.2%
Backtest CAGR+11.6%
Sharpe0.62
maxDD-35.5%
vol21.5%
edge vs ASX 200+4.9%
Backtest vs ASX 200
By calendar year vs ASX 200
YearStratASX 200Δ
2026*+17.5%+6.2%+11.3%
2025+15.5%+5.7%+9.8%
2024-10.8%+8.2%-19.0%
2023+1.7%+7.7%-6.0%
2022+79.9%-5.7%+85.6%
2021+7.7%+12.5%-4.8%
2020+0.0%-1.7%+1.7%
2019*+0.0%+22.0%-22.0%
* partial year
⚠ point-in-time (survivorship-immune): monthly hold the 6 cheapest miners by as-of-date EV/EBITDA

Performance vs index

PeriodStrategyASX 200vs index
Day+6.2%-0.3%+6.5%
Week+14.4%-1.4%+15.8%
Month+10.8%+2.7%+8.1%

Portfolio (7 Aug 2026)

#HoldingWeightDayscore
1EVN
modelled potential -0%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+10.2%-0%
2NST
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+6.2%-2%
3RRL
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+10.9%-2%
4GMD
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+10.3%-2%
5YAL
modelled potential -15%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%-0.5%-15%
6SFR
modelled potential -18%; equal weight 16.7%.
16.7%+2.7%-18%

Signal feed / trades

RebalanceSignalHoldingPrice (AUD)WeightResult
7 Aug 2026BuyNST
Northern Star Resources
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
22.7016.7%
BuyRRL
Regis Resources
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.2916.7%
BuyGMD
Genesis Minerals
modelled potential -2%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.1316.7%
SellFMG
Fortescue
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -10%)
18.02-4.0%
SellWDS
Woodside Energy
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -30%)
31.88+8.7%
SellSTO
Santos
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -45%)
7.66+0.8%
12 Jul 2026BuyFMG
Fortescue
modelled potential -10%; equal weight 16.7%.
18.7716.7%
BuyEVN
Evolution Mining
modelled potential -23%; equal weight 16.7%.
11.4216.7%
BuyWDS
Woodside Energy
modelled potential -30%; equal weight 16.7%.
29.3216.7%
BuySTO
Santos
modelled potential -45%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.616.7%
SellNST
Northern Star Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -29%)
19.90-8.6%
SellWHC
Whitehaven Coal
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -30%)
7.54-0.1%
SellRRL
Regis Resources
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -34%)
6.46-3.6%
SellNHC
New Hope
dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was -34%)
5.22-0.9%
6 Jul 2026
initial book
BuySFR
Sandfire Resources
modelled potential -6%; equal weight 16.7%.
19.2816.7%
BuyYAL
Yancoal Australia
modelled potential -23%; equal weight 16.7%.
5.4416.7%
BuyNST
Northern Star Resources
modelled potential -29%; equal weight 16.7%.
21.7716.7%
BuyWHC
Whitehaven Coal
modelled potential -30%; equal weight 16.7%.
7.5516.7%
BuyRRL
Regis Resources
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
6.716.7%
BuyNHC
New Hope
modelled potential -34%; equal weight 16.7%.
5.2716.7%

Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.