Woodside: H1 profit up 27%, but portal model sees 27% downside

28 августа 2026 года Woodside раскрыла результаты за первое полугодие 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 13,0% до 13 800 млн долл., EBITDA – на 5,8% до 7 832 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 27,1% до 3 106 млн долл. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее непривлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (5,16) выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего (4,46), а модель портала оценивает потенциал снижения в 27%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 13% in H1, driven by higher energy prices

— EBITDA margin fell from 60.5% to 56.7% due to operating leverage

— Net profit rose 27%, outpacing EBITDA, thanks to lower finance costs

— Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.64x EBITDA for the last 12 months

— Trailing dividend yield of 5.0% looks attractive relative to valuation

— Portal model sees fair value 27% below the current price

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue grew 13% in H1, driven by higher energy prices

Woodside's revenue for H1 2026 reached 13,800 million USD, up 13.0% from the same period a year earlier. The main driver was higher hydrocarbon prices, which offset any potential decline in production volumes.

Revenue growth slowed compared to the previous half-year but remained positive. The company continues to benefit from favorable pricing in the LNG and oil markets.

EBITDA margin fell from 60.5% to 56.7% due to operating leverage

EBITDA for H1 rose 5.8% to 7,832 million USD, but the EBITDA margin fell from 60.5% to 56.7%. This reflects faster growth in operating costs, including production and transportation expenses, which were not fully offset by higher prices.

The margin decline signals that price growth is no longer translating into profit with the same force. The company faces cost inflation and possibly a shift in sales mix toward lower-margin contracts.

Net profit rose 27%, outpacing EBITDA, thanks to lower finance costs

Net profit for H1 reached 3,106 million USD, up 27.1% year-on-year. Profit growth significantly outpaced EBITDA, indicating lower net finance costs or one-off tax effects.

Net margin increased from 20.0% to 22.5%. This is positive, but it is important to note that part of the increase may be due to non-operating factors unlikely to repeat in subsequent periods.

Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.64x EBITDA for the last 12 months

At the end of H1, Woodside's net debt stood at 6,256 million USD, equivalent to 0.64 times EBITDA for the last 12 months. This is a comfortable level, leaving room for investment financing and dividend payments.

Over the last 12 months, net debt decreased by 0.1 billion USD, indicating stable cash flow. Operating cash flow for the last 12 months was 7,200 million USD, covering capital expenditures and dividends.

Trailing dividend yield of 5.0% looks attractive relative to valuation

The trailing 12-month dividend yield was 5.0%, above the sector average. This provides shareholders with a solid cash return, especially given low leverage.

However, at the current share price, which trades at 14.4 times trailing P/E, the market already prices in significant growth expectations. If energy prices correct, the dividend could come under pressure.

Portal model sees fair value 27% below the current price

According to the portal model, which re-prices EBITDA at current commodity prices and applies a target EV/EBITDA multiple, the fair value of the share is 27% below the current market price. This implies the market is overvaluing the company's future cash flows.

The current EV/EBITDA is 5.16, above the three-year average of 4.46. The stock trades at a premium to its own history, and the portal model suggests this premium is unjustified.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Woodside reported strong H1 results with net profit up 27.1% and revenue up 13.0%, but margins declined and valuation looks stretched relative to its own history. Leverage is low and dividend yield is attractive, yet the portal model points to 27% downside. At the current price, the share is rather unattractive: the market has already priced in an optimistic scenario, and a positive re-rating would require either further commodity price increases or improved operational efficiency.