Whitehaven: revenue falls, but EBITDA rises 35.8% — driven by margin, not volumes

25 августа Whitehaven раскрыла результаты за FY 2026 (год, закончившийся 30 июня 2026). Выручка снизилась на 7,4% до 5 400 млн AUD, однако EBITDA выросла на 35,8% до 2 878 млн AUD, а чистая прибыль упала на 40,7% до 385 млн AUD. Акции торгуются с дисконтом к собственной трёхлетней истории по EV/EBITDA, но модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в -25%, что делает бумагу непривлекательной по текущей цене.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA rose 35.8% despite falling revenue — margin jumped from 36.3% to 53.3%

— Net profit fell 40.7% despite EBITDA growth — divergence due to one-off factors

— Leverage remains low: net debt of 1,245 million AUD against LTM EBITDA of 2,878 million AUD

— The portal's model values the share 25% below the current price

— Dividend yield of 1.1% — modest for a coal company with high margins

Attractiveness

Key figures, AUD bn

EBITDA rose 35.8% despite falling revenue — margin jumped from 36.3% to 53.3%

In FY 2026, Whitehaven's revenue declined 7.4% to 5,400 million AUD, yet EBITDA rose 35.8% to 2,878 million AUD. This was driven by a sharp margin expansion: EBITDA margin reached 53.3% versus 36.3% a year earlier.

Margin growth amid falling revenue suggests the company benefited from lower costs or favorable coal prices despite lower sales volumes. However, such dynamics are unlikely to repeat if coal prices correct.

Net profit fell 40.7% despite EBITDA growth — divergence due to one-off factors

Net profit for FY 2026 was 385 million AUD, down 40.7% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, EBITDA rose 35.8%, indicating significant one-off items affecting the bottom line — such as asset impairments or losses on financial instruments.

Net margin fell to 7.1% from 11.1% a year earlier. This means operational efficiency did not translate into net profit, which may concern dividend-focused shareholders.

Leverage remains low: net debt of 1,245 million AUD against LTM EBITDA of 2,878 million AUD

At the end of the period, Whitehaven's net debt stood at 1,245 million AUD. The net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio is 0.43, a comfortable level for a coal company.

Over the last 12 months, net debt increased by 0.7 billion AUD, but thanks to high EBITDA, leverage remains moderate. This gives the company room to fund capex and dividends without straining the balance sheet.

The portal's model values the share 25% below the current price

According to the portal's model, Whitehaven's fair value is 25% below the current market price. This implies that at current coal prices and target EV/EBITDA, the shares are overvalued.

The current EV/EBITDA LTM multiple is 2.97 versus the three-year average of 3.24. Formally, the shares trade at a discount to their own history, but the portal's model incorporates lower future coal prices, resulting in negative upside.

Dividend yield of 1.1% — modest for a coal company with high margins

Over the last 12 months, Whitehaven's dividend yield was 1.1%. This is low for a coal company, especially given the high EBITDA margin and low leverage.

The company may be directing free cash flow to debt repayment or investments rather than dividends. For income-focused investors, this could be disappointing.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Whitehaven posted strong EBITDA growth driven by margin, but net profit fell and dividend yield remains low. The shares trade at a discount to their own three-year EV/EBITDA history, yet the portal's model indicates 25% overvaluation. Given this, the stock looks unattractive: upside is limited and risks of falling coal prices are high. A reassessment could occur if coal prices stabilize and net profit recovers.