CF Industries: record EBITDA in Q2 2026, but the portal's model sees 17% downside

25 августа 2026 года CF Industries раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 17,6% год к году до 2 222 млн долл., EBITDA — на 32,5% до 1 336 млн долл., чистая прибыль — на 76,6% до 869 млн долл. Акции торгуются с мультипликатором EV/EBITDA 5,7 против среднего за три года 4,9, и по модели портала потенциал снижения составляет 17%, что делает бумагу скорее непривлекательной на текущей цене.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 17.6% YoY to $2,222 million, driven by higher fertilizer sales

— EBITDA margin reached 52.5% versus 46.6% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage and favorable pricing

— Net profit rose 76.6% to $869 million, helped by lower interest expenses and higher operating profit

— Leverage stands at 0.4x EBITDA, leaving ample room for higher dividends or buybacks

— Capex in Q2 2026 was $271 million, below operating cash flow of $878 million, generating free cash flow

— Dividend yield over the last 12 months is 1.5%, below the sector average, but the company generates significant cash flow

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue in Q2 2026 grew 17.6% YoY to $2,222 million, driven by higher fertilizer sales

In Q2 2026, CF Industries' revenue reached $2,222 million, up 17.6% from the same period a year earlier. Growth accelerated compared to the previous quarter, when revenue rose 19.4% YoY, indicating sustained strong demand for fertilizers.

The main driver was higher sales volumes and favorable pricing in global nitrogen fertilizer markets. The company continues to benefit from constrained supply and steady demand from the agricultural sector.

EBITDA margin reached 52.5% versus 46.6% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage and favorable pricing

EBITDA in Q2 2026 grew 32.5% YoY to $1,336 million, and the EBITDA margin expanded from 46.6% to 52.5%. This was driven by operating leverage: revenue grew faster than operating expenses, typical for companies with a high share of fixed costs.

The margin improvement also reflects favorable price dynamics in nitrogen fertilizers, which allowed the company to offset higher raw material and energy costs. As a result, EBITDA over the last 12 months reached $4,160.5 million, confirming the resilience of the business model.

Net profit rose 76.6% to $869 million, helped by lower interest expenses and higher operating profit

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached $869 million, up 76.6% from a year earlier. Operating profit rose to $1,121 million, and net margin increased from 26.0% to 39.1%.

Profit growth was also supported by lower net interest expenses due to debt reduction: net debt decreased from $1,640 million in Q2 2025 to $1,133 million at the end of Q2 2026. This led to lower financial costs and higher net profit.

Leverage stands at 0.4x EBITDA, leaving ample room for higher dividends or buybacks

At the end of Q2 2026, CF Industries' net debt stood at $1,133 million, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio over the last 12 months was 0.4. This is a low level of leverage, providing the company with significant financial flexibility.

The reduction in debt compared to the previous quarter ($1,578 million) and the year-ago level ($1,640 million) reflects strong operating cash flow. The company can allocate free funds to increase dividends or buy back shares, supporting shareholder value.

Capex in Q2 2026 was $271 million, below operating cash flow of $878 million, generating free cash flow

In Q2 2026, operating cash flow was $878 million, and capital expenditures were $271 million, resulting in free cash flow of $607 million. This allows the company to fund dividends and reduce debt.

Over the last 12 months, operating cash flow reached $2,800 million, significantly exceeding capital expenditures for the same period. Sustained cash generation is a key factor in investment attractiveness.

Dividend yield over the last 12 months is 1.5%, below the sector average, but the company generates significant cash flow

CF Industries' dividend yield over the last 12 months is 1.5%, which is relatively low. However, the company generates significant free cash flow that could be directed to increasing shareholder payouts.

With a current market capitalization of $22,047 million and net profit over the last 12 months of $2,500 million, the P/E ratio is 8.8, indicating undervaluation relative to historical levels. Combined with low debt and expanding margins, this creates potential for higher dividends.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

CF Industries delivered strong results in Q2 2026: revenue and EBITDA grew at double-digit rates, margins expanded, and debt declined. However, the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7, above its three-year average of 4.9, and the portal's model implies 17% downside. At the current price, the share looks rather unattractive: the market has already priced in strong financial performance, and further upside requires either new catalysts or a price correction.