Region: COMMODITIES

The latest commodity corporate results reveal a stark divergence in revenue growth. Precious and base-metals mining topped the industry rankings with a median revenue increase of 91.6% year over year, followed closely by precious-metals royalty companies at 89.5% and silver miners at 85.5%. At the other end, oil and gas companies posted a median decline of 5.4%, while polysilicon and coking coal saw the steepest drops of 78.5% and 100.0%, respectively.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Growth Leaders and Laggards

Among individual players, gold and silver miners dominated the growth leaderboard. Coeur Mining posted a revenue surge of 137.8% year over year, with EBITDA soaring 326.6% and net profit turning positive. Endeavour Silver saw revenue jump 230.2%, while EBITDA and net profit also swung sharply higher. In the precious-metals royalty space, Royal Gold delivered revenue growth of 142.5%, with EBITDA and net profit each rising over 147%. At the other extreme, Daqo New Energy (polysilicon) saw revenue collapse 78.5%, and American Resources (coking coal) reported a 100.0% revenue decline.

Accelerators and Decelerators

Several companies showed notable shifts in momentum. Bunge Global accelerated sharply, with revenue growth jumping from a prior-period decline of 10.8% to a current increase of 87.8%. Similarly, Sunoco LP reversed from a prior-period revenue decline of 1.6% to a surge of 106.4%. In contrast, Amplify Energy slowed dramatically, with revenue growth dropping from a prior-period increase of 5.3% to a decline of 48.0%. Canadian Natural Resources also decelerated, with revenue growth falling from a prior-period increase of 4.5% to a decline of 15.9%.

Long-term growth standouts include Pan American Silver, which posted a 3-year revenue CAGR of 34.3%, and Alamos Gold with a 30.1% CAGR. Among dividend leaders, Dorchester Minerals offered a yield of 8.1%, while Energy Transfer LP yielded 7.9% and Texas Pacific Land Corporation yielded 5.2%.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)

Research note, data as of 24-25 June 2026. Not individual investment advice. US refining is running at abnormally high margins, and unlike past spikes this one is largely structural. We cover how much refiners earn now, how long it lasts, how much free cash flow PBF can generate, and a backtest of buying cheap on crack-adjusted EV/EBITDA. The lead name is PBF Energy (PBF) — the most concentrated way to play the theme.

The crack spread is ~$46/bbl now — double the norm, but not at its peak

The 3-2-1 crack spread — the notional margin of turning three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of diesel — sits around $46/bbl, versus a historical norm of ~$10-12. The headline USGC 3-2-1 averaged ~$42 in April 2026 (+95% YoY) and spiked above $52 in spring on Hormuz tension. In 2024-2025 the crack sagged to ~$20-24, which is why refiner profits collapsed.

Crack spread: where we are in the cycle

The high crack has lasted only ~4 months of a typical 3-9

The acute phase of the rally began in late February 2026 (Iran/Hormuz), so the high crack has lasted only about 4 months. Historically, elevated margins after a geopolitical shock persist 3-9 months — so the cycle is only partly through, and permanent capacity closures can extend it. Key nuance: PBF has barely monetized this crack yet, because its best plant (Martinez) was down — the bulk of the earnings is still ahead.

Strikes on Russian refineries and Hormuz add fuel — but it's reversible

Ukrainian strikes have knocked an estimated 20%+ of Russia's refining capacity offline; Russia began importing gasoline by sea and curbed product exports, and as a major diesel exporter its lost flows push global cracks up. The Hormuz/Iran conflict added a risk premium and Middle East outages. Both factors are reversible — cracks have eased before when Russian supply recovered — which argues the moment is cyclical, not a permanent new normal.

~900 kb/d shut for good — that lengthens the cycle

Since 2023 the US has permanently retired about 900 kb/d of refining capacity. Shut plants don't come back, which structurally tightens supply regardless of demand. Base case: elevated margins persist another 12-18 months, compressing 20-30% from peaks; bull case 24+ months; bear case a return to 2023 levels within 6-12 months.

US capacity permanently closed since 2023

PBF is a pure-play refiner: maximum sensitivity to the crack

PBF is a pure-play refiner — no midstream, no chemicals to smooth the cycle. Six plants, ~1.0 million b/d, weighted Nelson complexity 12.7. That makes it the most crack-geared large name — amplitude in both directions.

PBF refineries

PBF's profit swings wildly: $4.3bn at the peak, ~zero at the trough

A pure-play cuts both ways: adjusted EBITDA was $4.3bn in 2022, collapsed to $0.09bn in 2024 — a 48x swing in two years — and was near zero in 2025 (Martinez outage). At full utilization and current spreads the potential is $2.5-3.5bn a year.

PBF adjusted EBITDA by year

PBF's margin tracks the crack — depressed now by Martinez downtime

PBF's realized refining margin moved from +$11.7/bbl (Q1'24) to -$3.9 (Q4'24) to +$11.2 (Q4'25), then dipped to +$6.0 in Q1'26 — low despite a high crack because Martinez was down. As Martinez returns to full load in Q2 2026, the margin should re-converge toward the crack environment.

PBF realized refining margin by quarter

+$1/bbl of crack ~ +7% of market cap — that's the core leverage

At ~900 kb/d PBF processes ~330 million barrels a year, so every +$1/bbl of durable margin is ~$0.33bn of pre-tax EBITDA, ~$2.8/share, ~7% of market cap. Per $1bn of market cap PBF carries ~188 kb/d of capacity vs ~41 for VLO/MPC — 4.6x more barrels per dollar (but also more debt).

Leverage to the crack: capacity per $1bn market cap

At current cracks PBF can earn ~20-40% of its market cap in FCF in a year

Assuming 2026 capex ~$0.9bn, net interest ~$0.19bn and 21% tax: mid-cycle (EBITDA ~$1.8bn) yields ~11% FCF on the $4.8bn market cap; at current high cracks with Martinez running (~$2.5bn) ~22%; at a 2022-style peak (~$3.5bn) ~39%; at the trough FCF is negative. So a sustained high crack can return a fifth to two-fifths of the market cap in free cash flow in a single year.

Estimated PBF FCF yield by state of the cycle

Debt is manageable, and Martinez restarts into the high-spread window

Net debt is ~$2.3bn (net debt/cap ~36%, debt/EBITDA ~1.9x), with no maturity wall — 2026 refinancing pushed the 2028 notes out to 2034. Dividend ~2.7% plus a buyback; priority is deleveraging. Martinez (fire 1 Feb 2025, ~$0.9bn insurance recoveries) completes its restart in Q2 2026 — full load returns into the high-spread window.

Backtest: cheap on EV/(crack-adjusted EBITDA) = historically a good entry

We tested buying when a refiner is cheap on EV/EBITDA computed at the current crack (not reported earnings) across VLO/PBF/MPC/PSX/DINO, 2020-2026, monthly, with point-in-time ranking. Cheap names returned +47% on average over the next 12 months (median +45%) versus just +5% for expensive ones.

12-month forward return by cheapness on crack EV/EBITDA

Statistical weight comes from our Global Commodities strategy, whose refiner signal is built on the same crack model (crack to EBITDA to EV/EBITDA to upside): 2016-2026 it returned ~28% CAGR vs ~14% for the S&P, with a ~+11%/yr cross-sectional ranking edge over an equal-weight basket of the same names.

For cyclicals, multiples on reported earnings mislead — use anchors

For a cyclical, any multiple on reported/peak earnings misleads (P/E and EV/EBITDA alike) — at the margin peak, earnings are huge and the multiple looks low right at the top. Better anchors: EV/EBITDA recomputed at the current crack (as in the backtest), EV/mid-cycle EBITDA, and price-to-book. PBF's P/B range is 0.25x (trough), 1.12x median, 2.55x (peak); now ~0.90x, around or below book (~$44/share). Supercycle history: 2004-2005 saw Valero +239% and HF Sinclair +265%; 2022 saw HF Sinclair +106%, Valero +58%, Marathon +53%.

PBF price / book value (P/B)

Risk/reward skews up: base +45%, bull +112%, bear -28%

Combining FCF-driven equity build with multiple normalization toward mid-cycle, rough 12-24 month price scenarios for PBF (current ~$40): base (crack ~$30-35) ~$58 (+45%); bull (crack ~$40+, holds 24 months) ~$85 (+112%); bear (crack to $20) ~$29 (-28%). The risk/reward skews up, but this is a high-volatility cyclical bet — both upside and downside are large. Not a forecast.

PBF illustrative price scenarios

The spot-potential model re-prices each company's revenue at current commodity spot prices versus the LTM-realised average, and reads the implied EBITDA uplift. It is computed for 18 of the 24 commodity names.

Spot-EBITDA potential (selected)

Operating leverage drives the ranking

The largest potentials belong not to the companies whose commodity rose most, but to those with the thinnest EBITDA margins. Albemarle, Alpha Met, Peabody and Core Natural all earn just 5-11% margins today — so a revenue increment from higher prices drops almost entirely to EBITDA and multiplies a small base. Albemarle is the extreme: lithium prices collapsed, its EBITDA is near-breakeven, and lithium spot sits ~58% above the LTM average — recovering that implies a several-fold EBITDA jump.

The dependable reads

The high-margin gold and copper majors — Newmont, Barrick, AngloGold, Freeport, Southern Copper — show a steadier +20-37%. They already earn 35-65% margins, so a price move lifts EBITDA proportionally rather than explosively. These are the robust signals; the triple-digit coal and lithium figures correctly flag enormous gearing to a price recovery, but are fragile on a near-breakeven base.