| Year | Strat | S&P 500 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | +26.7% | +8.1% | +18.6% |
| 2025 | +55.9% | +16.4% | +39.5% |
| 2024 | -2.6% | +23.5% | -26.1% |
| 2023 | -6.9% | +24.2% | -31.1% |
| 2022 | +5.8% | -19.7% | +25.5% |
| 2021 | +5.7% | +27.4% | -21.6% |
| 2020* | +51.7% | +23.1% | +28.6% |
Global commodity producers ranked by EV/EBITDA mean-reversion upside — cheap cyclical producers, excluding names the Frontier spot model rates negative (positive-potential only). Top ~15, equal weight, monthly.
| Period | Strategy | S&P 500 | vs index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day | -0.8% | +0.0% | -0.8% |
| Week | +2.0% | -0.4% | +2.4% |
| YTD | +25.7% | +9.2% | +16.5% |
| # | Holding | Weight | Day | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PBF mean-reversion upside +556%; EV/EBITDA 7.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $7.8bn. | 11.1% | -2.8% | 556% |
| 2 | ZIM mean-reversion upside +534%; EV/EBITDA 3.9x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $2.9bn. | 11.1% | -2.2% | 534% |
| 3 | TROX mean-reversion upside +222%; EV/EBITDA 19.4x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $1.0bn. | 11.1% | +0.8% | 222% |
| 4 | VLO mean-reversion upside +188%; EV/EBITDA 10.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $92.4bn. | 11.1% | -2.0% | 188% |
| 5 | SBSW mean-reversion upside +109%; EV/EBITDA 3.2x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $6.1bn. | 11.1% | -2.0% | 109% |
| 6 | ESEA mean-reversion upside +72%; EV/EBITDA 3.4x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.5bn. | 11.1% | +0.1% | 72% |
| 7 | NEM mean-reversion upside +52%; EV/EBITDA 6.0x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $74.7bn. | 11.1% | -2.1% | 52% |
| 8 | DAC mean-reversion upside +23%; EV/EBITDA 4.1x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $2.9bn. | 11.1% | +0.1% | 23% |
| 9 | IPI mean-reversion upside +15%; EV/EBITDA 8.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.4bn. | 11.1% | +2.9% | 15% |
| Rebalance | Signal | Holding | Price (USD) | Weight | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2026 – 28 Jul 2026 | no change (3 rebalances) | ||||
| 25 Jul 2026 | Buy | IPI Intrepid Potash mean-reversion upside +18%; EV/EBITDA 8.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.4bn. | 34.22 | 11.1% | — |
| 24 Jul 2026 | no change | ||||
| 23 Jul 2026 | Sell | IPI Intrepid Potash dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 13%) | 34.45 | — | -1.8% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | no change | ||||
| 21 Jul 2026 | Buy | TROX Tronox Holdings mean-reversion upside +231%; EV/EBITDA 19.3x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.9bn. | 6.49 | 11.1% | — |
| Buy | ESEA Euroseas mean-reversion upside +95%; EV/EBITDA 3.2x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.5bn. | 72.95 | 11.1% | — | |
| Buy | DAC Danaos Corporation mean-reversion upside +41%; EV/EBITDA 3.7x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $2.6bn. | 131.46 | 11.1% | — | |
| Sell | TECK Teck Resources dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 73%) | 56.83 | — | +4.3% | |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Buy | TECK Teck Resources mean-reversion upside +73%; EV/EBITDA 5.9x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $19.3bn. | 54.50 | 14.3% | — |
| 14 Jul 2026 – 19 Jul 2026 | no change (6 rebalances) | ||||
| 13 Jul 2026 | Buy | PBF PBF Energy mean-reversion upside +377%; EV/EBITDA 15.6x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $6.6bn. | 57.44 | 16.7% | — |
| Sell | GNK Genco Shipping & Trading dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 88%) | 25.35 | — | +7.1% | |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Sell | PBF PBF Energy dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 377%) | 53.18 | — | +34.1% |
| 8 Jul 2026 – 11 Jul 2026 | no change (3 rebalances) | ||||
| 7 Jul 2026 | Buy | IPI Intrepid Potash mean-reversion upside +95%; EV/EBITDA 11.4x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.4bn. | 35.07 | 14.3% | — |
| 6 Jul 2026 | Sell | IPI Intrepid Potash dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 111%) | 34.17 | — | -4.7% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | no change | ||||
| 4 Jul 2026 | Buy | SBSW Sibanye-Stillwater mean-reversion upside +99%; EV/EBITDA 3.3x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $6.4bn. | 8.96 | 14.3% | — |
| Buy | ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping mean-reversion upside +2%; EV/EBITDA 2.7x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $3.1bn. | 25.57 | 14.3% | — | |
| Sell | CF CF Industries dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 51%) | 110.54 | — | +3.4% | |
| 21 Jun 2026 – 3 Jul 2026 | no change (13 rebalances) | ||||
| 20 Jun 2026 | Buy | GNK Genco Shipping & Trading mean-reversion upside +37%; EV/EBITDA 14.0x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $1.0bn. | 23.68 | 16.7% | — |
| 16 Jun 2026 – 19 Jun 2026 | no change (4 rebalances) | ||||
| 15 Jun 2026 initial book | Buy | PBF PBF Energy mean-reversion upside +294%; EV/EBITDA 13.6x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $5.4bn. | 39.66 | 20.0% | — |
| Buy | IPI Intrepid Potash mean-reversion upside +84%; EV/EBITDA 12.1x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $0.5bn. | 35.86 | 20.0% | — | |
| Buy | VLO Valero Energy mean-reversion upside +68%; EV/EBITDA 15.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $77.8bn. | 256.92 | 20.0% | — | |
| Buy | CF CF Industries mean-reversion upside +60%; EV/EBITDA 7.8x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $23.5bn. | 106.90 | 20.0% | — | |
| Buy | NEM Newmont Corporation mean-reversion upside +50%; EV/EBITDA 8.3x (cheap vs history); mkt cap $80.1bn. | 105.80 | 20.0% | — | |
Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.