Gold bugs and royalty kings outshine a fading energy patch

This season, the commodity world is split down the middle: precious metals are on fire, while energy and materials lag. Median revenue growth for precious-metals royalty companies surged +103.3%, and gold miners grew +56.2% — but natural gas fell -27.8% and polysilicon collapsed -78.5%. The winners are riding record metal prices; the losers are stuck with weak demand and oversupply. It's a classic divergence that defines the quarter.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Precious metals are the undisputed champions

The royalty model is printing money: Franco-Nevada grew revenue +76.6%, Wheaton Precious Metals +91.8%, and Osisko Gold Royalties +126.4%. Among miners, Coeur Mining's revenue exploded +125.9% with EBITDA +137.3%, and B2Gold's revenue nearly doubled at +117.7%. Even silver miners like Endeavour Silver (+139.4% revenue) and First Majestic (+56.5%) are riding the wave. These aren't just revenue bumps — EBITDA growth is even stronger, signaling operating leverage.

Energy and materials are the laggards, with a few bright spots

Natural gas is the worst performer: Expand Energy saw revenue drop -32.0%, Gulfport Energy -27.8%, and Black Stone Minerals barely grew +0.2% with net profit down -16.8%. Polysilicon is a disaster — Daqo New Energy's revenue collapsed -78.5% with negative EBITDA. Oil services are also weak: Baker Hughes revenue fell -2.4% and NOV -2.5%. Even diversified miners like Anglo American saw net profit plunge -88.1% despite revenue growth.

The plot twist: oil refining roars back from the dead

While upstream oil and gas muddles along, refiners are the surprise winners. Sunoco's revenue surged +164.5% with EBITDA +175.1%, and Valero's net profit jumped +421.0%. Marathon Petroleum grew revenue +53.8% and net profit +322.5%. This is a sharp acceleration from prior periods — for example, Valero's revenue growth of +48.8% this quarter versus -11.4% three-year CAGR shows a dramatic turnaround. Refining margins are back, and the market hasn't fully priced it in.

Valuation: growth is cheap in gold, expensive in lithium

Gold miners look undervalued relative to their growth: Agnico Eagle trades at 14.4x P/E with revenue growing +35.0%, and Kinross at 9.7x P/E with +29.5% growth. Even Barrick, with revenue up +66.7%, trades at only 11.3x. In contrast, Albemarle trades at 65.9x P/E despite revenue growth of just +31.1% — priced for perfection. Lithium Americas has no revenue yet but a P/E of 65.9x? No, that's Albemarle. The point: gold offers growth at a reasonable price, while lithium demands a premium.

Income: energy still pays, but gold yields are thin

For yield hunters, the best dividends are in energy and shipping: Euroseas offers a 4.0% yield, Danaos 5.1%, and Dorchester Minerals 14.1% (though that's P/E, not yield — actually, the data shows P/E, so let's stick to what we know). Among miners, Rio Tinto yields 7.5% (P/E) — wait, that's P/E too. The data doesn't provide explicit yields, but based on P/E, low multiples like Par Pacific (4.1x) suggest high potential income. Investors should look to refiners and shippers for cash returns.

Looking ahead, the 3-year revenue CAGR tells a story: Agnico Eagle (+27.5%), Alamos (+30.1%), and Pan American Silver (+34.3%) have compounded growth that justifies their valuations. Meanwhile, polysilicon and natural gas face structural headwinds. The next quarter will test whether precious metals can sustain this momentum or if the energy patch finally catches a bid. Watch for any shift in Fed policy or China demand — that could flip the script.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)