Precious-metals royalty and silver miners lead a commodity supercycle, while polysilicon and coking coal collapse

This season's commodity earnings painted a starkly bifurcated picture: precious-metals royalty companies and silver miners rode surging metal prices to triple-digit revenue growth, while energy-related segments—especially polysilicon and coking coal—saw dramatic declines. The median revenue growth across industries ranged from +99.8% for precious-metals royalty to -78.5% for polysilicon, a spread of nearly 180 percentage points. This is not a broad-based recovery; it's a selective boom led by gold, silver, and copper, with sharp pain for those tied to old-energy or oversupplied niches.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Silver miners and royalty companies minted money as metal prices soared

The standout performers were in precious metals, with royalty companies Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals posting revenue growth of +76.6%, +114.9%, and +84.7% respectively. Silver miners were equally impressive: Endeavour Silver's revenue surged +139.4%, Silvercorp Metals +96.2%, and First Majestic Silver +56.5%, with EBITDA growth of +119.8%, +248.5%, and +119.8% respectively. Even gold miners like Coeur Mining (+125.9% revenue) and AngloGold Ashanti (+70.8% revenue) showed robust growth, but the real winners were those with leverage to silver and royalty streams, which amplified the metal price rally into outsized earnings.

Polysilicon and coking coal were the season's biggest losers, with revenue collapses

At the other extreme, Daqo New Energy (polysilicon) saw revenue plunge -78.5% year over year, with EBITDA down -174.2%, reflecting severe oversupply in solar materials. American Resources (coking coal) reported revenue down -100.0%, effectively zero, though net profit improved +100.1% on a low base. Among larger names, Freeport-McMoRan (copper) saw revenue fall -8.8% and net profit -36.4%, while Cameco (uranium) suffered a -5.6% revenue decline and a -92.0% net profit drop, highlighting that even 'future-facing' commodities aren't immune to operational headwinds.

The plot twist: energy stocks surged on refining and midstream strength, not oil prices

While oil & gas producers saw moderate gains, the real energy story was in refining and midstream. Valero Energy's revenue rose +48.8% with net profit up +421.0%, and Marathon Petroleum's net profit surged +322.5% on +53.8% revenue growth. Sunoco LP's revenue jumped +164.5%, and Energy Transfer LP's revenue grew +78.4% with net profit +79.5%. This suggests the market is rewarding downstream and infrastructure players for margin expansion and volume growth, not just commodity price tailwinds.

Valuations are cheap for growers, but some 'royalty' names are priced for perfection

For value investors, the standout is Par Pacific (P/E 4.8x) and PBF Energy (P/E 6.1x), both growing revenue over 50% yet trading at single-digit earnings multiples. Among miners, Fortuna Mining (P/E 8.6x) and Gold Fields (P/E 7.3x) offer growth at reasonable prices. However, royalty companies like Wheaton Precious Metals (P/E 29.7x, EV/EBITDA 23.6x) and Franco-Nevada (P/E 32.9x, EV/EBITDA 23.0x) are expensive relative to their growth, suggesting the market has already priced in sustained metal price strength.

Yield hunters can find income in energy and shipping, but beware of sustainability

The highest dividend yields are concentrated in energy and shipping. Euroseas offers a P/E of 3.9x and Danaos Corporation 4.8x, both with strong cash flows. In oil & gas, Amplify Energy trades at 4.4x earnings and PEDEVCO at an EV/EBITDA of 1.1x, but these low multiples often signal market skepticism about payout durability. For more stable income, midstream names like Energy Transfer (P/E 13.7x) and ONEOK (P/E 16.4x) provide yields supported by fee-based cash flows.

The long view: 3-year CAGRs reveal who's built for the cycle, and who's not

Looking beyond the quarter, Pan American Silver's 3-year revenue CAGR of +34.3% and Agnico Eagle's +27.5% underscore sustained growth in precious metals. Conversely, US Energy's 3-year CAGR of -45.1% and Houston American Energy's -37.0% highlight structural decline in small-cap oil. As we look ahead, the key question is whether metal prices can hold these levels—if they do, royalty and silver miners have more upside; if not, their rich valuations leave little room for error.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)