HMM: revenue up 29.7% in Q2, but net profit down 12.8% on higher costs

25 августа HMM раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 29,7% год к году, до 3 401 966 млн вон, EBITDA прибавила 41,0%, однако чистая прибыль сократилась на 12,8% – до 411 179 млн вон. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 9,4 выше собственного трёхлетнего среднего 8,2, но рост выручки и EBITDA, а также умеренный долг дают основание для позитивного взгляда.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue rose 29.7% – the strongest quarterly pace in four quarters

— EBITDA margin widened to 20.9% from 19.2% a year earlier, but net profit fell 12.8%

— Leverage: net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 1.04

— Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 3.36%

— The share trades at EV/EBITDA of 9.4 versus its three-year average of 8.2

Attractiveness

Key figures, KRW bn

Q2 revenue rose 29.7% – the strongest quarterly pace in four quarters

In Q2 2026, HMM's revenue reached KRW 3,401,966 million, up 29.7% year on year. This is a sharp reversal after four quarters of decline: Q3 2025 saw a drop of 23.8%, Q4 2025 – 14.2%, and Q1 2026 – 4.8%.

Sequential growth also accelerated: revenue rose from KRW 2,718,734 million in Q1 2026 to KRW 3,401,966 million in Q2. This points to a recovery in demand or improved conditions on key routes, although the report does not break down growth by segment.

EBITDA margin widened to 20.9% from 19.2% a year earlier, but net profit fell 12.8%

EBITDA in Q2 2026 rose 41.0% year on year to KRW 707,267 million, with the EBITDA margin expanding to 20.9% from 19.2% in Q2 2025. Operating profit also showed positive dynamics: KRW 354,118 million versus KRW 233,175 million a year earlier.

However, net profit fell 12.8% to KRW 411,179 million from KRW 471,280 million in Q2 2025. The net margin declined to 12.1% from 18.0%. The divergence between EBITDA growth and net profit decline points to higher non-operating expenses, possibly interest or taxes, although the report does not detail the reasons.

Leverage: net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at 1.04

At the end of Q2 2026, HMM's net debt stood at KRW 3,891,516 million, up KRW 39.9 billion quarter on quarter and KRW 3,229.7 billion over the trailing twelve months. The increase is tied to a large investment programme: capex reached KRW 1,311,439 million in Q1 2026 and KRW 319,246 million in Q2.

Nevertheless, the net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months is 1.04 – a moderate level for a shipping company. Operating cash flow of KRW 3,305,100 million over the trailing twelve months is sufficient to service debt and fund current investments.

Trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 3.36%

Over the trailing twelve months, HMM paid dividends that provided a yield of 3.36% at the current price. This is a notable level for a shipping company, though below the key rate, making the dividend more of an additional bonus than a primary reason to buy.

Future payouts will depend on profitability and distribution policy. Given that net profit declined in Q2 and capex remains high, the dividend could come under pressure if the company prioritises investment.

The share trades at EV/EBITDA of 9.4 versus its three-year average of 8.2

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.4 – above its own three-year average of 8.2. P/E for the trailing twelve months is 13.7. The share does not look cheap relative to its history, but it is not overvalued either, given the revenue recovery.

On the portal's model, the upside to fair value is +15%. This implies that if current EBITDA growth and the target multiple hold, the share has upside potential, though realisation depends on the sustainability of market conditions.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong point of the report was the revenue turnaround: growth of 29.7% in Q2 after four quarters of decline, accompanied by EBITDA margin expansion to 20.9%. However, net profit fell 12.8%, pointing to higher non-operating expenses, likely due to increased debt. At EV/EBITDA of 9.4 versus an average of 8.2 and a dividend yield of 3.36%, the share looks rather attractive, especially given the +15% upside on the portal's model. The key question for holders is whether the company can sustain revenue growth and margin in a volatile shipping market.