MX_GAP: 52.6% margin and 1.79 EBITDA debt – the portal grows, but valuation is no longer cheap

25 августа MX_GAP раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка 11 369,6 млн MXN, EBITDA 5 975,8 млн, чистая прибыль 3 312,0 млн. Рентабельность по EBITDA достигла 52,6%, чистая маржа – 29,1%. При текущей цене акции выглядят скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 11,2 раза ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (12,7 раза), а долговая нагрузка 1,79 EBITDA остаётся умеренной, хотя и выросла за год на 13,0 млрд MXN.

Key takeaways

— Quarterly revenue grew 12% YoY to MXN 11,369.6 million, driven by portal model expansion

— EBITDA margin of 52.6% reflects operating leverage and cost control

— Net profit of MXN 3,312.0 million comes from high operating efficiency, not one-offs

— Operating cash flow of MXN 7,571.8 million comfortably covers capex of MXN 1,757.6 million

— Debt leverage of 1.79x EBITDA is moderate, but absolute debt rose MXN 13.0 billion over the year

— Valuation: EV/EBITDA of 11.2x is below its 3-year average of 12.7x, offering upside potential

— Dividend yield not yet disclosed, but possible given current profit and payout policy

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Quarterly revenue grew 12% YoY to MXN 11,369.6 million, driven by portal model expansion

In Q1 2026, MX_GAP revenue reached MXN 11,369.6 million, up 12% YoY. Growth was driven by portal ecosystem expansion: more paying users and higher transaction volumes.

Over the trailing twelve months, revenue hit MXN 41,400.0 million, confirming the resilience of the business model. The company continues to increase monetization while sustaining high growth rates even in a mature market.

EBITDA margin of 52.6% reflects operating leverage and cost control

Quarterly EBITDA stood at MXN 5,975.8 million, corresponding to a 52.6% margin. This profitability level was achieved thanks to operating leverage: revenue grows faster than operating expenses, typical for portal models with low variable costs.

Over the trailing twelve months, EBITDA reached MXN 18,722.0 million. The high margin is not a one-off but a systemic quality of the business, supported by automation and scaling.

Net profit of MXN 3,312.0 million comes from high operating efficiency, not one-offs

Quarterly net profit was MXN 3,312.0 million, implying a net margin of 29.1%. Unlike many companies where profit is inflated by one-offs, here the main driver was operating activity: high EBITDA and controlled financial expenses.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit reached MXN 9,565.2 million. Return on equity of 55.0% confirms efficient use of shareholders' capital.

Operating cash flow of MXN 7,571.8 million comfortably covers capex of MXN 1,757.6 million

In the reported quarter, operating cash flow was MXN 7,571.8 million, well above capex of MXN 1,757.6 million. Free cash flow after investments – about MXN 5.8 billion – remains at the company's disposal for dividends and debt reduction.

Over the trailing twelve months, operating cash flow reached MXN 18,200.0 million, confirming high earnings quality: profit is backed by real cash, not just accounting accruals.

Debt leverage of 1.79x EBITDA is moderate, but absolute debt rose MXN 13.0 billion over the year

As of the latest balance sheet date, net debt was MXN 33,519.3 million, corresponding to a net debt / EBITDA ratio of 1.79 over the trailing twelve months. This is a moderate level that poses no threat to financial stability and leaves room for maneuver.

Over the year, net debt increased by MXN 13.0 billion – likely to finance growth investments and possible M&A. Importantly, the debt increase did not worsen the credit profile: the ratio remains below the comfortable threshold of 2.0.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA of 11.2x is below its 3-year average of 12.7x, offering upside potential

The current EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 11.2x (based on LTM EBITDA), below its own 3-year average of 12.7x. This suggests the market is valuing the company at a discount to its historical valuation, despite strong operating performance.

P/E based on LTM profit – 18.4x – also does not look stretched for a company with 55% ROE and expanding margins. If the company continues to deliver double-digit revenue growth and maintains margins, upside re-rating potential remains.

Dividend yield not yet disclosed, but possible given current profit and payout policy

The quarterly report does not disclose dividend payments, but the company historically allocates part of profit to dividends. With trailing net profit of MXN 9,565.2 million and a payout policy around 50%, a potential dividend could be about MXN 4.8 billion, implying a yield of about 2.7% on the current market cap of MXN 175,690.0 million.

Exact dividend policy parameters will be known after the annual report. The key factor is the company's ability to generate stable cash flow, which already exceeds investment needs.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q1 2026 report showed strong results: revenue grew 12%, EBITDA margin reached 52.6%, and operating cash flow comfortably covered capex. Net profit of MXN 3,312.0 million is high-quality, without one-offs. Debt leverage remains moderate (1.79x EBITDA), although absolute debt rose. The key question for shareholders is whether the company can convert high profitability into sustainable cash flow and dividends, and whether further debt growth will overheat the valuation. At the current price, the shares look rather attractive: the multiple is below its own history, and the business continues to grow.