Mexico Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

23 апреля 2026 года Arca Continental раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года, однако наш обзор охватывает и последний квартальный отчёт за второй квартал 2026 года, опубликованный позднее. Выручка во втором квартале выросла на 90,2% год к году, до 120 616 млн мексиканских песо, EBITDA – на 57,8%, до 20 216 млн, а чистая прибыль – на 59,9%, до 8 744 млн. При этом маржа EBITDA сократилась с 20,8% до 17,3%, что отражает разовые эффекты и давление на рентабельность. Акции торгуются с мультипликатором EV/EBITDA 6,4 против среднего за три года 7,3, что выглядит привлекательно, особенно с учётом дивидендной доходности 4,1% и потенциала роста по модели портала на 42%.

Key takeaways

— Q2 2026 revenue grew 90.2% YoY, driven by consolidation of new assets and organic growth

— EBITDA margin contracted from 20.8% to 17.3% due to one-offs and higher costs

— Net profit rose 59.9%, but lagged revenue growth due to operating leverage and financial expenses

— Net debt/EBITDA stands at 0.6x, leaving room for growth financing and dividends

— Capex in Q2 was 2,854 million pesos, below year-ago levels, supporting free cash flow

— Trailing dividend yield is 4.1%, above market average and backed by cash flow

— The portal's model implies 42% upside, making the stock attractive at current levels

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Q2 2026 revenue grew 90.2% YoY, driven by consolidation of new assets and organic growth

In Q2 2026, Arca Continental's revenue reached 120,616 million pesos, up 90.2% YoY. This surge is attributed to the inclusion of new assets in the scope and organic volume and price growth. For context, Q1 2026 growth was only 0.2%, highlighting the one-off nature of the acceleration.

Sequentially, Q2 2026 revenue nearly doubled from Q1 2026 (57,128 million pesos), indicating significant consolidation or seasonal effects that warrant further analysis.

EBITDA margin contracted from 20.8% to 17.3% due to one-offs and higher costs

In Q2 2026, EBITDA margin stood at 17.3%, down from 20.8% a year earlier. This decline reflects margin pressure despite strong revenue growth. Causes include one-off items, higher cost of sales and operating expenses, and possible effects from consolidating new assets with lower margins.

In Q1 2026, EBITDA margin was 18.6%, also below 18.7% in Q1 2025. Thus, a margin contraction trend is visible in recent quarters, possibly due to competitive pressure and cost inflation.

Net profit rose 59.9%, but lagged revenue growth due to operating leverage and financial expenses

Net profit in Q2 2026 reached 8,744 million pesos, up 59.9% YoY. However, profit growth significantly lagged revenue growth (90.2%), due to lower operating margin and higher financial expenses. In Q1 2026, net profit declined 8.5% YoY, indicating volatility.

Trailing twelve-month net profit was 22,504 million pesos, implying a P/E of 14.4x. This is moderate for a company with growing revenue, but margin contraction warrants attention.

Net debt/EBITDA stands at 0.6x, leaving room for growth financing and dividends

As of end-Q2 2026, net debt was 33,768 million pesos, equivalent to 0.6x LTM EBITDA. This is a low leverage level, providing financial flexibility for investments and dividends.

Net debt increased by 3.7 billion pesos quarter-on-quarter and by 13.0 billion pesos over the last 12 months, reflecting capex financing and possible acquisitions. Still, the ratio remains comfortable.

Capex in Q2 was 2,854 million pesos, below year-ago levels, supporting free cash flow

In Q2 2026, capex was 2,854 million pesos, down from 4,629 million pesos in Q2 2025. This decline likely reflects completion of some investment projects and focus on efficiency.

Operating cash flow for the quarter was 9,022 million pesos, comfortably covering capex. Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow reached 37,700 million pesos, providing free cash flow after investments.

Trailing dividend yield is 4.1%, above market average and backed by cash flow

Over the last twelve months, Arca Continental's dividend yield was 4.1%, an attractive level for shareholders. Dividends are backed by stable operating cash flow and low leverage.

In Q1 2026, the company paid a dividend of 4.28 pesos per share, representing a payout ratio of 37% of retained earnings. This demonstrates a balanced approach to capital allocation.

The portal's model implies 42% upside, making the stock attractive at current levels

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, the stock's upside potential is 42% from current market cap. This suggests the market does not fully reflect the company's prospects.

Current EV/EBITDA is 6.4x, below the three-year average of 7.3x. This indicates the stock trades at a discount to its own history, offering potential for re-rating.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Arca Continental delivered impressive revenue growth in Q2 2026 (+90.2%), but this was accompanied by margin contraction and slower profit growth. The company maintains low leverage (0.6x EBITDA) and generates sufficient cash flow to cover capex and dividends. The stock trades at a discount to its own history (EV/EBITDA 6.4x vs 7.3x three-year average), which, combined with a 4.1% dividend yield and 42% upside per the portal's model, makes it attractive. However, the key question for holders is whether the company can stabilize margins and achieve organic growth after integration effects fade.

On August 25, MX_ALSEA reported Q2 2026 results: revenue fell 1.8% YoY, EBITDA rose 19.3%, and net profit dropped 52.0%. At the current price, the share looks attractive: EV/EBITDA is 8% below its own three-year average, and the portal's model implies 79% upside.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue fell 1.8% YoY, but EBITDA rose 19.3% on operational efficiency

— EBITDA margin reached 19.6% vs 16.1% a year earlier, offsetting weak sales

— Net profit fell 52.0% due to one-off factors unrelated to core operations

— Quarterly operating cash flow was only 452.5 million MXN, sharply contrasting with EBITDA

— Net debt decreased by 0.2 billion MXN in the quarter and 0.5 billion over the year; net debt/EBITDA at 1.74

— EV/EBITDA at 3.90 – 8% below its three-year average of 4.26, indicating undervaluation

— The portal's model implies 79% upside for the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Q2 revenue fell 1.8% YoY, but EBITDA rose 19.3% on operational efficiency

In Q2 2026, revenue reached 21,092.2 million MXN, down 1.8% from a year earlier. The decline has continued for three consecutive quarters: Q4 2025 growth was only 0.2%, Q1 2026 – 0.3%, and now – minus 1.8%.

EBITDA, however, rose 19.3% to 4,325.5 million MXN. Such a gap between revenue and EBITDA dynamics suggests the company achieved higher operating profitability through cost control rather than increased sales.

EBITDA margin reached 19.6% vs 16.1% a year earlier, offsetting weak sales

EBITDA margin for Q2 2026 was 19.6% versus 16.1% in the same period last year. The 3.5 percentage point improvement is significant, showing the company managed to enhance operational efficiency.

This is particularly important amid falling revenue: margin expansion allows EBITDA to keep growing, supporting cash flow and valuation.

Net profit fell 52.0% due to one-off factors unrelated to core operations

Net profit for Q2 2026 was 531.5 million MXN, down 52.0% from 1,108.2 million MXN a year earlier. The decline occurred despite EBITDA growth, indicating significant one-off items, likely related to taxes or financial results.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was 1,783.1 million MXN, implying a P/E of 19.65. This is moderately high, but may be justified if the one-offs do not recur.

Quarterly operating cash flow was only 452.5 million MXN, sharply contrasting with EBITDA

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was only 452.5 million MXN – about 10% of EBITDA. In contrast, in previous quarters OCF typically ranged from 50% to 100% of EBITDA, e.g., Q2 2025 saw 3,738.8 million MXN against EBITDA of 3,466.6 million.

Such a sharp drop in OCF may be due to working capital changes or one-off payments. This is an important signal for investors: EBITDA does not always convert into cash, and quarterly fluctuations need monitoring.

Net debt decreased by 0.2 billion MXN in the quarter and 0.5 billion over the year; net debt/EBITDA at 1.74

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at 28,293.0 million MXN, down 0.2 billion from the previous reporting date and 0.5 billion from a year earlier. The reduction is positive, albeit modest.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 1.74. This is a moderate level that does not create debt service problems and leaves room for investments or dividends.

EV/EBITDA at 3.90 – 8% below its three-year average of 4.26, indicating undervaluation

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.90, 8% below the three-year average of 4.26. This suggests the market values the company cheaper than usual, despite EBITDA growth.

Meanwhile, a P/E of 19.65 may seem high, but it reflects lower net profit due to one-offs. If these do not recur, profit will recover, making the P/E more attractive.

The portal's model implies 79% upside for the share

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, the fair value of the share is 79% above the current market price. This significant potential confirms the undervaluation conclusion.

The share is held in the MX FVC (quality) strategy on the portal. This is a fact, but not an argument for a recommendation – the decision is based on fundamentals.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong point of the report was EBITDA growth of 19.3% and margin expansion to 19.6%, showing effective cost management. However, net profit halved and operating cash flow was extremely low, which is concerning. Debt levels are moderate, and valuation is below its own history. At the current price, the share looks attractive, but the key question is whether the company can halt the revenue decline and restore cash flow. If not, the current undervaluation could be a trap.

On April 21, América Móvil reported first-quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose 2.1% YoY to MXN 236.8bn, EBITDA grew 3.8% to MXN 94.5bn, net profit jumped 25.1% to MXN 23.4bn. At the current price, the share looks attractive: EV/EBITDA (5.7x) is below its own three-year average (4.8x), and the portal's model implies +14% upside.

Key takeaways

— EBITDA margin reached 39.9% – a high, helped by operating leverage and one-off gains

— Net profit rose 25.1%: lower financial costs (-9.9%) helped

— Mobile service revenue grew 6.4% – postpaid led with +7.3%

— Net debt fell MXN 284.2bn over the year to MXN 437.0bn at end-March

— Free cash flow was MXN 3.3bn versus -MXN 0.4bn a year earlier

— Capex of MXN 21.6bn and dividends are covered by operating cash flow

— The share trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 5.7x versus 4.8x average

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

EBITDA margin reached 39.9% – a high, helped by operating leverage and one-off gains

In Q1 2026, EBITDA rose 3.8% YoY to MXN 94.5bn, and the margin expanded from 39.2% to 39.9%. The company attributes this to operating leverage: EBITDA is growing faster than service revenue. Additionally, other revenue (+107.9%) includes proceeds from a favorable court ruling in Chile over a TV rights dispute.

Excluding this one-off, EBITDA would have grown 7.0% in constant currency, not 8.0%. Still, even the adjusted growth outpaces service revenue (+4.6% in constant currency), confirming economies of scale.

Net profit rose 25.1%: lower financial costs (-9.9%) helped

Net profit for Q1 was MXN 23.4bn versus MXN 18.7bn a year earlier. Operating profit rose 12.7% to MXN 50.5bn, while comprehensive financing costs fell 9.9% on lower net interest expenses (-6.7%).

As a result, net margin expanded from 8.1% to 9.9%. Profit growth more than doubled revenue growth, reflecting both operating leverage and lower debt costs.

Mobile service revenue grew 6.4% – postpaid led with +7.3%

Mobile service revenue grew 6.4% YoY in Q1. Postpaid rose 7.3%, prepaid 5.0%, with prepaid accelerating quarter after quarter. Overall service revenue in constant currency increased 4.6%.

In Mexico, mobile service revenue grew 5.7% – the best in two years; in Brazil, 7.8%; in Colombia, 10.2%, the strongest in ten years. Growth is supported by a larger postpaid base (+8.8% YoY) and higher ARPU.

Net debt fell MXN 284.2bn over the year to MXN 437.0bn at end-March

Net debt at end-March stood at MXN 437.0bn, down MXN 284.2bn from a year earlier. In cash-flow terms, net debt fell MXN 1.0bn during the quarter, as stated in the cash flow statement.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 2.04x. The company reports 1.41x, but that excludes leases and uses a different methodology; we use the standard definition.

Free cash flow was MXN 3.3bn versus -MXN 0.4bn a year earlier

In Q1, operating cash flow was MXN 24.9bn, almost unchanged YoY (MXN 24.3bn). Capex fell from MXN 24.7bn to MXN 21.6bn, which allowed positive free cash flow of MXN 3.3bn versus -MXN 0.4bn a year earlier.

Free cash flow covered MXN 1.4bn in share buybacks and MXN 1.5bn in labor obligations, and also allowed a small debt reduction.

Capex of MXN 21.6bn and dividends are covered by operating cash flow

Operating cash flow of MXN 24.9bn exceeded capex (MXN 21.6bn) and dividends paid (MXN 0.7bn). The board proposed an ordinary dividend of MXN 0.54 per share, payable in two equal installments, and an additional MXN 10bn for share buybacks for April 2026-April 2027.

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 2.7%. At this level of payouts and buybacks, the company can still fund investments from operating cash flow.

The share trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 5.7x versus 4.8x average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple for the trailing twelve months is 5.7x, below the three-year average of 4.8x. P/E is 13.4x. ROE is 21.7%.

Our portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, implies +14% upside to the current price. This makes the share attractive relative to its own history and strong operating performance.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

América Móvil reported Q1 with a strong EBITDA margin (39.9%) and 25.1% net profit growth, helped by lower financing costs. Revenue growth remains modest in pesos, but in constant currency it reaches 6.1%, and mobile service revenue is accelerating in key countries. Debt fell MXN 284bn over the year, and free cash flow turned positive. At EV/EBITDA of 5.7x versus its own 4.8x average and +14% upside on the portal's model, the share looks attractive; the key question is whether the company can sustain margins without one-offs and amid a stronger peso.

On April 29, Grupo Bimbo reported first-quarter 2026 results. Peso revenue fell 3.3% year on year to 100,319 million due to FX translation, while on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 9.5%, and the margin reached a record 14.0% versus 12.4% a year earlier, but about a third of the profit increase came from the sale of a minority stake in an associated company in Mexico. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: the P/E of 12.0 is below its three-year average, and leverage is declining.

Key takeaways

— Peso revenue fell 3.3%, but on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8% – a record for a first quarter

— EBITDA margin reached a record 14.0% – helped by the sale of a minority stake in Mexico

— Net profit rose 33.4% – largely thanks to a one-off gain from the stake sale

— Free cash flow came in at 7,428 million pesos – 4,633 million more than a year earlier

— Net debt fell to 137,986 million pesos, and the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 2.5x

— P/E of 12.0 – below its three-year average, dividend yield 1.9%

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Peso revenue fell 3.3%, but on a currency-neutral basis it rose 4.8% – a record for a first quarter

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo Bimbo's revenue came in at 100,319 million pesos, 3.3% below a year earlier. The decline is entirely explained by FX translation: on a currency-neutral basis, sales rose 4.8% and set a record for a first quarter. Growth was driven by favorable price/mix, positive volume trends, and the contribution from recent acquisitions.

The regional picture is mixed. Mexico posted record quarterly sales of 39,726 million pesos, up 4.5% year on year. In North America, peso revenue fell 13.0% due to exchange rates, but on a constant-currency basis it rose 0.7% – a return to growth. EAA and Latin America grew 12.6% and 15.1% on a constant-currency basis, also reaching record levels.

EBITDA margin reached a record 14.0% – helped by the sale of a minority stake in Mexico

Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter rose 9.5% year on year to 14,036 million pesos, and the margin expanded 160 basis points to 14.0% – a record for a first quarter. On a currency-neutral basis, EBITDA grew 15.2%. The company explicitly attributes part of the improvement to the sale of a minority stake in an associated company in Mexico – the gain was recognized within other items.

Operating profit rose 17.4% in pesos and 18.4% excluding FX, with the margin expanding 140 basis points to 7.9%. Besides the one-off gain, record productivity in North America, where the transformation program continues to deliver savings, and lower restructuring costs helped. In Mexico, the EBITDA margin reached a record 20.5%; in EAA, 8.8%, also a record for a first quarter.

Net profit rose 33.4% – largely thanks to a one-off gain from the stake sale

Net profit for the first quarter came in at 2,362 million pesos, 33.4% above a year earlier. The margin expanded 70 basis points to 2.4%. The company attributes the profit growth to the sale of the minority stake in Mexico, strong sales, and solid operating results, partially offset by higher income tax and increased financing costs.

Financing costs rose 6.6% to 3,462 million pesos – mainly due to an exchange rate loss on hedging instruments. Interest expenses, in contrast, fell 1.2% thanks to lower debt and a stronger peso. The effective tax rate declined, but the absolute tax amount rose 25% due to higher pre-tax profit.

Free cash flow came in at 7,428 million pesos – 4,633 million more than a year earlier

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo Bimbo generated 7,428 million pesos of free cash flow – 4,633 million more than in the first quarter of 2025. Operating cash flow came in at 15,111 million pesos, and capital expenditures at 2,743 million pesos. The company attributes the improvement to strong cash generation during the quarter.

The rise in free cash flow is an important signal: it shows that operational efficiency and lower restructuring costs are converting into cash, not just paper profit. It also provides a cushion for debt service and acquisitions, which the company continues to make – for example, it recently completed the acquisition of Bonel in Tunisia.

Net debt fell to 137,986 million pesos, and the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 2.5x

As of the end of March 2026, net debt stood at 137,986 million pesos, down from 143,460 million a year earlier and 145 billion at the end of December 2025. The quarterly decline of about 7 billion pesos the company attributes to strong cash generation, despite higher total debt. The Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA ratio (excluding IFRS 16) improved to 2.5x from 2.7x at the end of December and 2.9x a year earlier.

The debt structure remains conservative: average maturity of 9.8 years, average cost of 6.45%, 97% of debt is long-term. The currency mix is diversified: 43% in dollars, 41% in pesos, the rest in euros, Canadian dollars, and pounds. The decline in leverage is a positive factor for shareholders, as it reduces interest expenses and increases resilience to monetary tightening.

P/E of 12.0 – below its three-year average, dividend yield 1.9%

Grupo Bimbo's market capitalization stands at 241,668 million pesos. With trailing-twelve-month profit of 20,143 million pesos, the P/E ratio is 12.0 – below its three-year average, though the comparable EV/EBITDA multiple (6.9) is roughly at its historical level. The trailing dividend yield is 1.9%.

Given declining debt and rising free cash flow, the valuation does not look stretched. However, investors should remember that part of the reported profit is one-off, and without it the multiple would be somewhat higher. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.5% – a moderate level for a global food company.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The first-quarter 2026 report is strong in quality: currency-neutral revenue is growing at record pace, the EBITDA margin reached an all-time high, free cash flow nearly doubled, and leverage declined. However, part of the margin and profit improvement came from a one-off sale of a minority stake in Mexico – without it, growth would have been more modest. At a P/E of 12.0, below its three-year average, and a dividend yield of 1.9%, the share looks rather attractive for a long-term holder, but the key question is whether the company can sustain record margins without one-off gains and amid currency volatility.

28 апреля 2026 года Grupo México раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 32,6% год к году до 5 565,3 млн долл., EBITDA – на 47,7% до 3 308,9 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 62,3% до 1 637,8 млн долл.. Рост обеспечен главным образом повышением цен на медь, серебро и цинк, а также увеличением объёмов продаж серебра и цинка. Акции выглядят привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 9,2 превышает средний за три года 6,7, но модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +11%, что вместе с сильной динамикой показателей и низким долгом оправдывает позитивную оценку.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q1 2026 grew 32.6% to $5,565.3 million, driven by higher copper, silver and zinc prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes

— EBITDA in Q1 2026 reached $3,308.9 million, with margin up to 59.5% from 53.4% a year earlier

— Net profit in Q1 2026 increased 62.3% to $1,637.8 million, with margin up to 29.4% from 24.1%

— Leverage is low: net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at 0.04

— The company continues to invest in growth projects with a total budget of more than $27 billion through the end of the decade

— The dividend for Q1 2026 implies an annualized yield of 3.3%, higher than the market average

— EV/EBITDA multiple (9.2) is above its three-year average (6.7), but the portal's model gives upside potential of +11%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue in Q1 2026 grew 32.6% to $5,565.3 million, driven by higher copper, silver and zinc prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo México's consolidated revenue reached a record $5,565.3 million, up 32.6% from the same period last year. The main contribution came from the mining division, whose revenue grew 37.7% to $4,606.6 million, driven by higher copper prices (LME, +37.5%), silver (+157.9%), molybdenum (+25.3%) and zinc (+14.0%), as well as higher silver and zinc sales volumes.

The transportation division increased revenue by 15.6% to $896 million, while the infrastructure division decreased by 9.5% to $158 million due to the suspension of four PEMEX rigs and lower gas prices. Thus, higher metal prices were the main driver of revenue, while copper production volumes even declined by 2.8%.

EBITDA in Q1 2026 reached $3,308.9 million, with margin up to 59.5% from 53.4% a year earlier

EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to $3,308.9 million, up 47.7% year-on-year. EBITDA margin rose to 59.5% from 53.4% in Q1 2025. The main contribution came from the mining division, where EBITDA grew 59.2% to $2,871.8 million, with margin reaching 62.3%.

The margin expansion reflects operating leverage: cost of sales rose only 15.3%, while revenue increased 32.6%. The company also notes a reduction in cash cost per pound of copper net of byproducts to $0.22, down 79% from the prior year, thanks to higher byproduct credits.

Net profit in Q1 2026 increased 62.3% to $1,637.8 million, with margin up to 29.4% from 24.1%

Net profit attributable to Grupo México shareholders in Q1 2026 grew 62.3% to $1,637.8 million. Net margin increased to 29.4% from 24.1% a year earlier. Profit growth was driven by operating results and a positive effect from other income (in the report – 'Other (income) expense, net': minus $4.9 million versus plus $23.5 million a year earlier).

The effective tax rate rose from 33.8% to 34.6%, somewhat dampening net profit growth. Nevertheless, profit growth outpaced revenue growth, reflecting operating leverage and cost control.

Leverage is low: net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at 0.04

At the end of Q1 2026, the company had a net cash position of $954.6 million (negative net debt), versus net debt of $636.5 million a year earlier. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stood at 0.04, indicating minimal leverage.

The company generates solid operating cash flow: in Q1 2026 it reached $1,652.7 million versus $871.2 million a year earlier. Capital expenditures remained almost flat year-on-year at $524.4 million, allowing the company to maintain positive free cash flow.

The company continues to invest in growth projects with a total budget of more than $27 billion through the end of the decade

Grupo México confirms a large-scale investment program: capital expenditures in the current decade may exceed $27 billion and include projects in Peru, the US, Spain and Mexico. Key projects include Tia Maria in Peru (start-up expected in Q3 2027, progress 32.5%), the Ray concentrator expansion in Arizona (investment $1.8 billion) and the El Arco project in Mexico (awaiting permits).

The company also announced a strategic combination of its power generation assets with Saavi Energía (managed by BlackRock), creating a platform with an indicative valuation of about $5.5 billion and projected 2026 EBITDA in the range of $675–725 million. The transaction involves a cash contribution from Grupo México of approximately $880 million funded from its own cash flow.

The dividend for Q1 2026 implies an annualized yield of 3.3%, higher than the market average

On April 24, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of MXN 1.65 per share, payable in a single installment on June 1, 2026. The company estimates an annualized dividend yield of 3.3%.

Over the last twelve months, the dividend yield was 2.34%, lower than the declared annual yield, as the latest dividend is not yet included in the calculation. Nevertheless, the dividend policy remains sustainable thanks to strong cash flow.

EV/EBITDA multiple (9.2) is above its three-year average (6.7), but the portal's model gives upside potential of +11%

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.2, notably above the three-year average (6.7). P/E for the last twelve months is 18.1. The share price appreciation reflects improved operating performance and favorable metal prices.

According to the portal's model, re-pricing EBITDA at current commodity prices and applying the target EV/EBITDA implies upside potential of +11% to the current market capitalization ($102,541.2 million). This is moderate but positive potential, which, combined with low debt and growing dividends, makes the shares attractive.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q1 2026 report shows strong results: record revenue, significant growth in EBITDA and net profit, and margin expansion. The drivers were high metal prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes, while copper production declined. The company maintains low leverage and continues large-scale investments in growth projects. However, the current valuation (EV/EBITDA 9.2) already reflects the favorable environment, and further share price appreciation will depend on the sustainability of metal prices. With +11% upside on the portal's model and a dividend yield of 3.3%, the shares look attractive for long-term investors.

On April 29, Coca-Cola FEMSA reported first quarter 2026 results. Revenue rose just 1.1% to Ps. 70,925 million, EBITDA 0.9%, while net profit fell 15.5% to Ps. 4,342 million. At the current price, the share looks rather attractive: valuation is below its own three-year history and dividend yield exceeds 4%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue rose only 1.1% due to negative FX effects, but 6.0% on a currency-neutral basis

— EBITDA margin held at 18.9%, but operating income fell 2.3% on restructuring and IT costs

— Net profit fell 15.5% due to higher financing costs and a loss on financial instruments

— Debt increased, but net debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 0.80

— The 2025 dividend is being paid in four installments, the first already paid

— On the portal's model, the share's upside potential is only +1%

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue rose only 1.1% due to negative FX effects, but 6.0% on a currency-neutral basis

In the first quarter of 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA's total revenue reached Ps. 70,925 million, just 1.1% above the year-ago figure. The main contribution came from a 1.2% volume increase and pricing initiatives, but negative currency translation from all operating markets into Mexican pesos almost completely offset that growth.

Excluding currency effects, revenue rose 6.0%. In South America, growth was 12.3% on a comparable basis, while in Mexico and Central America it was only 1.4%. In Mexico, the company's largest market, revenue fell 0.4% to Ps. 31,127 million due to softer consumer demand and higher excise taxes.

EBITDA margin held at 18.9%, but operating income fell 2.3% on restructuring and IT costs

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was Ps. 13,374 million, 0.9% above last year, with margin holding at 18.9%. However, operating income fell 2.3% to Ps. 9,032 million, and operating margin contracted 50 basis points to 12.7%.

Operating income was pressured by restructuring costs and SAP H4ana implementation, as well as higher marketing and depreciation expenses. These were partially offset by efficiencies in freight and maintenance, and a one-time income of Ps. 95 million from insurance claims related to Hurricane John.

Net profit fell 15.5% due to higher financing costs and a loss on financial instruments

Net income attributable to shareholders was Ps. 4,342 million, 15.5% below last year. The main driver was the comprehensive financing result: expenses rose 55.7% to Ps. 1,752 million.

Within the financial line – a loss on financial instruments of Ps. 167 million versus a gain of Ps. 135 million a year earlier, as well as higher net interest expenses due to new bond issuances in dollars and pesos. Foreign exchange losses also increased to Ps. 117 million. The effective tax rate rose from 33.4% to 36.6% due to inflationary effects in Argentina and non-creditable taxes in Mexico.

Debt increased, but net debt/EBITDA ratio improved to 0.80

At the end of March 2026, the company's net debt stood at Ps. 39,118 million, up Ps. 49.6 billion RUB from the previous reporting date, but over 12 months the increase was only Ps. 0.2 billion RUB. Including hedges, net debt was Ps. 47,535 million.

The ratio of net debt including hedges to adjusted EBITDA fell from 0.89 at end-2025 to 0.80. This is a low level of leverage, leaving room to fund capex and dividends.

The 2025 dividend is being paid in four installments, the first already paid

The annual shareholders' meeting on March 24 approved a dividend for 2025 of Ps. 7.74 per KOF UBL (Ps. 0.9675 per share). Payment is split into four equal installments of Ps. 1.935 per UBL; the first was paid on April 21, the remaining on July 14, October 13, and December 8, 2026.

The trailing twelve-month dividend yield is 4.03%. Capex in the first quarter was Ps. 3,138 million versus Ps. 4,228 million a year earlier, below operating cash flow.

On the portal's model, the share's upside potential is only +1%

Our value-creation model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, puts the share's upside to fair value at just +1%. This means the current price is close to the calculated fair value.

The share trades at a P/E LTM of 16.5, below the three-year average EV/EBITDA of 7.88 times (current EV/EBITDA not provided). ROE is 11.3%.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In the first quarter of 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA showed resilience amid a challenging environment: revenue was nearly flat, but rose 6% excluding currency effects, and EBITDA margin held at 18.9%. The 15.5% drop in net profit was mainly due to financial items, not operational issues. Debt leverage remains low, the dividend is being paid, and the share's valuation is below its own three-year history. However, the portal's model puts upside at just +1%, limiting attractiveness. The share is rather attractive for income-oriented investors, but price appreciation potential is limited.

On April 22, Genomma Lab released its Q1 2026 results. Revenue reached MXN 1,000,000 million (+22,594.8% YoY), EBITDA MXN 874,490.7 million, and net profit MXN 494,600 million. However, operating cash flow turned negative at MXN -229,167 million. Against these figures, the share looks unattractive: the EV/EBITDA multiple (2.15x) is below its own three-year average (5.33x), but the portal's model implies -100% upside.

Key takeaways

— Revenue grew 226x in the quarter, but this does not reflect organic dynamics

— EBITDA margin reached 87.4% versus 24.0% a year earlier, but operating cash flow is negative

— Net profit grew almost 1000x, but mostly due to one-off factors

— Leverage: net debt to EBITDA ratio is 0.29x, but net debt increased by MXN 1.0 billion over 12 months

— Dividend yield of 6.25% looks attractive, but cash flow does not cover payments

— The portal's model implies -100% upside, indicating overvaluation

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue grew 226x in the quarter, but this does not reflect organic dynamics

In Q1 2026, revenue reached MXN 1,000,000 million, up 22,594.8% year-over-year. However, this growth is not related to organic sales: the company reports a 3.9% decline in like-for-like sales in the same quarter, indicating a gap between reported and comparable figures.

The regional breakdown shows declines in Mexico by 8.6% and the US by 22.0% (in pesos), while Latin America grew 2.9%. The main contribution to growth likely came from one-off transactions not disclosed in the report, making the revenue figure of little use for assessing the current business.

EBITDA margin reached 87.4% versus 24.0% a year earlier, but operating cash flow is negative

EBITDA for the quarter reached MXN 874,490.7 million, corresponding to a margin of 87.4% – versus 24.0% in Q1 2025. Such a jump in profitability, however, is not accompanied by cash generation: operating cash flow for the quarter is negative at MXN -229,167 million.

The company's report states EBITDA of MXN 956.4 million for the quarter, which contradicts the given data. The discrepancy may be due to adjustments, but in any case, the negative operating cash flow indicates that profit is not converting into cash – a key signal for shareholders.

Net profit grew almost 1000x, but mostly due to one-off factors

Net profit for Q1 2026 reached MXN 494,600 million, up 99,077.9% year-over-year. However, the company's report states net profit of MXN 494.6 million, three orders of magnitude lower. This discrepancy casts doubt on the reliability of the given data.

Even using the reported figures, profit growth of 0.8% YoY (from 498.7 to 494.6 million pesos) is unimpressive. The report notes that net margin expanded by 49 basis points to 11.8% due to lower financial expenses, but this does not offset the weakness in operations.

Leverage: net debt to EBITDA ratio is 0.29x, but net debt increased by MXN 1.0 billion over 12 months

At the end of Q1 2026, net debt stood at MXN 1,929.3 million, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio for the trailing twelve months was 0.29x. This is a low level of leverage, but net debt increased by MXN 1.0 billion over the past 12 months, indicating a deteriorating balance sheet.

The company's report states a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.31x, significantly higher than the given figure. The discrepancy may be due to different calculation methods, but the debt dynamics remain negative: the company is increasing borrowings despite negative operating cash flow.

Dividend yield of 6.25% looks attractive, but cash flow does not cover payments

Over the trailing twelve months, the company paid dividends, providing a yield of 6.25% at the current market capitalization of MXN 12,593.5 million. This is higher than the average market yield, which may attract income-oriented investors.

However, operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months was only MXN 2,100 million, and quarterly dividend payments were MXN 195.3 million (according to the report). If the current trend continues, cash flow may not cover dividends, casting doubt on the sustainability of payments.

The portal's model implies -100% upside, indicating overvaluation

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, the upside potential of the share is -100% – meaning the model values fair value at zero. This result is a bound of the model, not an exact estimate, but it signals extreme overvaluation.

At the current P/E LTM of 25.4x and EV/EBITDA LTM of 2.15x, the share trades at a premium to its own history on P/E, but at a discount on EV/EBITDA. However, negative operating cash flow and questionable earnings quality make the valuation unreliable.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

In Q1 2026, Genomma Lab showed extreme revenue and EBITDA growth, but these figures are not backed by cash flow and contradict the company's own data. Operating cash flow is negative, net debt is rising, and like-for-like sales are falling – all pointing to the reported profit being likely one-off. At the current valuation (P/E 25.4x, EV/EBITDA 2.15x) and the portal's model with -100% upside, the share looks unattractive. Investors should wait for confirmation of business sustainability in the coming quarters before making a decision.

25 августа Walmex раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла всего на 1,9% год к году, до 250,9 млрд песо, EBITDA сократилась на 9,0% до 23,6 млрд песо, а чистая прибыль снизилась на 0,7% до 11,2 млрд песо. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (7,6) заметно ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (10,7), а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста всего в +1%, что ограничивает апсайд.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew only 1.9% – growth slowed from 8.3% a year earlier

— EBITDA fell 9.0% on margin pressure: 8.5% vs 9.5% a year ago

— Net profit declined 0.7%, but margin contracted only slightly – to 4.4%

— Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.46 of EBITDA over the last twelve months

— Capex in the quarter was 9.3 billion pesos – almost half of operating cash flow

— The stock trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 10.7 three-year average

— The portal's model sees only +1% upside – limited appreciation potential

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Q2 revenue grew only 1.9% – growth slowed from 8.3% a year earlier

In Q2 2026, Walmex revenue reached 250.9 billion pesos, only 1.9% higher than a year earlier. For comparison, growth was 8.3% a year ago and 1.7% in Q1 2026. The slowdown has been underway for several quarters: from 6.5% in Q1 2025 to current levels.

In the report, management attributes the weak dynamics to macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer pressure, especially in Central America, where deflation in Costa Rica is hurting sales. In Mexico, same-store sales rose 3.1%, outperforming the market, but traffic is declining – management expects improvement as price perception recovers.

EBITDA fell 9.0% on margin pressure: 8.5% vs 9.5% a year ago

EBITDA in Q2 was 23.6 billion pesos, 9.0% lower than a year earlier. The margin contracted from 9.5% to 8.5%. The main reason is increased investment in price and digital initiatives, which are not yet paying off in sales growth.

Management acknowledges the operating environment remains challenging and focuses on long-term improvements: expanding e-commerce, developing the Walmart Connect advertising business, and automation. But for now, these investments are pressuring profitability.

Net profit declined 0.7%, but margin contracted only slightly – to 4.4%

Net profit for the quarter was 11.2 billion pesos, 0.7% lower than a year earlier. The margin declined from 4.6% to 4.4% – the EBITDA decline was partially offset by a lower effective tax rate.

The report states that net profit remained roughly flat thanks to the tax effect. This means operating weakness is not yet translating into a proportional drop in profit.

Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.46 of EBITDA over the last twelve months

At the end of the quarter, net debt was 52.3 billion pesos, equivalent to 0.46 EBITDA over the last twelve months. This is a low level, leaving room for investments and shareholder returns.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was 91.3 billion pesos, well above capital expenditures. The company retains financial flexibility.

Capex in the quarter was 9.3 billion pesos – almost half of operating cash flow

In Q2, capital expenditures were 9.3 billion pesos, while operating cash flow was 18.3 billion pesos. This is a high level of investment, related to new store openings and automation.

Management confirms that investments are aimed at long-term growth, including fully automated distribution centers. However, this means free cash flow remains constrained.

The stock trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 10.7 three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.6, well below the three-year average (10.7). This suggests the market has already priced in slowing growth and margin pressure.

P/E over the last twelve months is 16.3, and dividend yield is 3.7%. At this valuation, the stock looks undervalued relative to its own history, but upside is limited.

The portal's model sees only +1% upside – limited appreciation potential

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of the share is only 1% above the current price. This means the market is already close to fair value.

The share is held in the portal's MX FVC (quality) strategy, reflecting its fundamental characteristics, but this is not an argument for buying. Upside is limited until the company shows revenue acceleration and margin stabilization.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Walmex reported a weak quarter – revenue barely grew, EBITDA fell 9%, and net profit declined slightly. The company is investing in price and digital initiatives, which pressures margins but has not yet delivered growth acceleration. Leverage is low, and the EV/EBITDA multiple (7.6) is well below its own three-year average (10.7), providing some support. However, the portal's model sees only +1% upside, so the stock looks rather attractive but with limited appreciation potential. A revision would require revenue acceleration and margin stabilization in coming quarters.

30 апреля FEMSA раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла на 6,1%, до 207 784 млн песо, EBITDA – на 11,2%, до 28 127 млн, а чистая прибыль – на 155,4%, до 14 826 млн песо. Однако почти весь прирост прибыли обеспечила разовая сделка по объединению BradyPLUS и Imperial Dade: без неё чистая прибыль упала бы на 36,4%. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA ниже собственной трёхлетней средней, а модель портала даёт потенциал роста на 17%.

Key takeaways

— Revenue growth of 6.1% was driven by OXXO Mexico and Americas & Mobility, while Europe and Health were nearly flat

— EBITDA margin expanded by 60 bps to 13.5% on operating leverage and cost control

— Net profit rose 155.4%, but excluding the one-off gain from the BradyPLUS/Imperial Dade merger it would have fallen 36.4%

— Net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x LTM remains minimal despite dividend payments and buybacks

— Capex fell 29.5% to Ps. 6,195 million, supporting free cash flow

— OXXO Mexico grew operating income 20.9% on revenue growth of 8.3%

— Spin active users grew 22.3%, and OXXO Mexico average ticket rose 6.6%

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Revenue growth of 6.1% was driven by OXXO Mexico and Americas & Mobility, while Europe and Health were nearly flat

In the first quarter of 2026, FEMSA's consolidated revenue grew 6.1% year-on-year to Ps. 207,784 million. The main driver was OXXO Mexico, with sales up 8.3% to Ps. 74,424 million, helped by 6.0% same-store sales growth and 3.8% store expansion. Americas & Mobility added 12.9% to Ps. 24,988 million, driven by a 7.5% increase in fuel sales and a 36.6% jump in merchandise sales.

Europe and Health were nearly flat, at +0.1% and +0.9%, respectively. Europe was held back by a 2.7% decline in same-store sales, while Health suffered from the closure of 335 stores over the last twelve months. On a comparable basis, excluding currency effects and changes in business composition, revenue growth was 8.5%.

EBITDA margin expanded by 60 bps to 13.5% on operating leverage and cost control

EBITDA for the first quarter grew 11.2% year-on-year to Ps. 28,127 million, with the EBITDA margin expanding 60 basis points to 13.5% from 12.9% a year earlier. The main contributors were OXXO Mexico, where the EBITDA margin rose 180 bps to 14.2%, and Americas & Mobility, where operating income grew 34.0%.

Consolidated operating income rose 5.5% to Ps. 14,314 million, with the operating margin stable at 6.9%. On a comparable basis, operating income increased 12.1%, reflecting the strength of local currencies outside Mexico. At OXXO Mexico, the operating margin expanded 80 bps to 7.6% on higher gross margin and efficiencies.

Net profit rose 155.4%, but excluding the one-off gain from the BradyPLUS/Imperial Dade merger it would have fallen 36.4%

Net profit for the first quarter of 2026 was Ps. 14,826 million versus Ps. 5,805 million a year earlier, up 155.4%. However, this growth is almost entirely explained by a one-off non-cash gain from the BradyPLUS and Imperial Dade merger, which closed on March 12, 2026. Excluding this effect, net profit would have been Ps. 5,688 million, down 36.4% from the prior year.

The decline excluding the one-off gain is due to higher net financing expenses: a negative foreign exchange result versus a gain a year earlier (–Ps. 883 million), a loss on financial instruments (–Ps. 189 million) versus a Ps. 1,107 million gain from the revaluation of the convertible bond, and lower interest income. Additionally, there was no income from discontinued operations, which contributed Ps. 2,490 million in the first quarter of last year.

Net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x LTM remains minimal despite dividend payments and buybacks

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, FEMSA's net debt stood at Ps. 19,012 million, with net debt to EBITDA over the last twelve months at 0.2x. This is a very low level, even though the company has deployed Ps. 47,218 million on dividends and Ps. 16,055 million on share buybacks over the last twelve months.

The company also discloses a Net Debt / EBITDA ex-KOF (excluding Coca-Cola FEMSA) metric, which stood at 1.24x versus 0.69x a year earlier. The increase reflects the cash outflow for capital distributions, but the consolidated metric remains minimal.

Capex fell 29.5% to Ps. 6,195 million, supporting free cash flow

Capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2026 were Ps. 6,195 million, down 29.5% from the prior year. The decline affected OXXO Mexico, Coca-Cola FEMSA and Health, reflecting a cautious approach to investments. This was partially offset by higher capex in Americas & Mobility, where expansion in Latin America resumed.

Lower capex combined with higher EBITDA supports free cash flow. Together with a low debt burden, this allows the company to maintain generous shareholder distributions: the dividend yield over the last twelve months stands at 6.8%.

OXXO Mexico grew operating income 20.9% on revenue growth of 8.3%

OXXO Mexico, FEMSA's largest segment, delivered strong performance: revenue grew 8.3% to Ps. 74,424 million, and operating income rose 20.9% to Ps. 5,629 million. The operating margin expanded 80 bps to 7.6%. Growth was driven by a 6.6% increase in the average ticket, while traffic declined slightly by 0.5%.

The company attributes the results to its affordability strategy, price increases due to new taxes on cigarettes, soft drinks and beer, and improved weather conditions. OXXO's store base in Mexico expanded by 158 stores in the quarter and by 888 over the last twelve months, reaching 24,455 stores.

Spin active users grew 22.3%, and OXXO Mexico average ticket rose 6.6%

The Spin digital ecosystem continues to grow: active Spin by OXXO users reached 11.0 million, up 22.3% year-on-year. Monthly transactions rose 60.9% to an average of 103.0 million in the quarter. The average ticket at OXXO Mexico increased 6.6% to Ps. 952.9 thousand, supporting revenue growth.

Higher average ticket with nearly flat traffic points to successful monetization and increased loyalty through the Spin Premia program, where active users grew 12.8% to 28.4 million. The share of payments via Spin Premia at OXXO Mexico reached 50.6% versus 42.5% a year earlier.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

FEMSA reported first-quarter 2026 results with strong EBITDA and operating income growth, particularly at OXXO Mexico, where the margin expanded 80 bps. However, almost all of the net profit growth came from a one-off deal, without which profit would have fallen by a third. The debt burden remains minimal (0.2x EBITDA LTM), and capex is declining, supporting free cash flow. With EV/EBITDA of 7.3x versus a three-year average of 6.6x and upside potential of 17% on the portal's model, the share looks rather attractive, but the key question is whether OXXO Mexico can sustain double-digit operating income growth in a soft consumer environment.

This season's Mexican corporate results are a study in extremes: while AC's revenue nearly doubled and GMEXICO posted a 32.6% surge, the consumer-facing and industrial names stumbled, with BIMBO, LIVERPOL, and ALSEA all reporting declines. The biggest divergence isn't between sectors—it's between those riding commodity or pricing tailwinds and those stuck with sluggish domestic demand.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Beverages and mining are the clear winners, with AC and GMEXICO leading the charge

AC's revenue exploded 90.2% year over year, with EBITDA up 57.8% and net profit up 59.9%—a performance that dwarfs every other company in the sample. GMEXICO wasn't far behind: revenue rose 32.6%, EBITDA jumped 47.7%, and net profit climbed 62.3%, showing that pricing power in metals is translating straight to the bottom line.

Consumer and industrial laggards show the strain of weak demand

At the other end, BIMBO's revenue fell 3.3%, LIVERPOL slipped 0.2%, and ALSEA dropped 1.8%—all despite positive prior-year comparisons. Worse, LIVERPOL's net profit plunged 17.2% and ALSEA's net profit cratered 52.0%, signaling margin compression that revenue declines alone don't explain. CARSO, the industrial conglomerate, saw revenue down 4.3% and EBITDA down 10.3%, a warning that capital spending remains weak.

The plot twist: AMX's profit surge hides a sharp slowdown in revenue growth

AMX, the telecom giant, delivered a 25.1% net profit increase, but revenue growth slowed from 6.5% to just 2.1% year over year—a dramatic deceleration. Meanwhile, ASUR's revenue growth collapsed from 21.3% to 0.8%, and net profit swung from +31.4% to -19.6%, making it the clearest case of momentum lost.

Valuations: cheap for a reason, or a bargain?

AC trades at just 14.6x P/E and 6.4x EV/EBITDA despite its explosive growth—a rare combination of growth and value. GMEXICO, growing net profit 62.3%, is at 18.2x P/E, not unreasonable. But CARSO's 39.1x P/E looks stretched given its revenue decline, and LAB's 25.7x P/E with an EV/EBITDA of only 2.2x suggests the market is pricing in a recovery that hasn't materialized yet.

Income investors: yield is scarce, but a few names stand out

Without explicit dividend yields in the data, we can infer from earnings multiples: BBAJIO at 7.4x P/E and INBURSA at 8.6x P/E likely offer the highest yields in the sample, while LIVERPOL at 7.8x P/E also screens as a potential income play. These are the names to watch for dividend sustainability.

Long-term growth stories: GAP and INBURSA stand out

Looking at three-year revenue CAGRs, GAP leads with 14.8%, followed by INBURSA at 16.0% and BBAJIO at 10.3%—all showing consistent expansion despite current headwinds. As the domestic economy stabilizes, these compounders could re-rate, but the near term belongs to AC and GMEXICO, whose pricing power is undeniable.

The next quarter will test whether AC's beverage boom is sustainable and whether consumer names can stabilize. Watch for any signs of pricing power in retail and packaged foods, and whether airport operators can recover from their current slump. The divergence between commodity winners and domestic laggards is likely to persist until consumption picks up.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)