Mexico Stocks — Valuations, P/E & Dividends

This season’s defining feature is a stark divergence: raw materials roared while consumer-facing sectors barely crept. Metals & mining revenue surged 32.6% year over year, the highest of any industry, while packaged foods and consumer health shrank 3.3% and 4.9%, respectively. The gap between the top and bottom industries—nearly 38 percentage points—tells a story of cyclical strength overwhelming defensive caution.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

Metals & mining and chemicals stole the spotlight with double-digit growth

The clear winner is GMEXICO, the sole metals & mining name, which posted revenue growth of 32.6% year over year, EBITDA up 47.7%, and net profit soaring 62.3%. That is not just top-line momentum—it is operating leverage at its finest. In chemicals & building materials, ORBIA also impressed: revenue rose 8.4%, but EBITDA surged 35.4% and net profit climbed 29.6%, showing rapid margin expansion. FEMSA, straddling beverages and retail, grew revenue 6.1% and EBITDA 11.2%, with net profit exploding 155.4%—though that profit jump likely includes one-offs, the underlying operating trend is solid.

Consumer staples and industrials are the season’s laggards, with revenue shrinking

At the bottom, packaged foods & bakery (BIMBO) saw revenue fall 3.3% year over year, while consumer health (LAB) dropped 4.9%. BIMBO, however, managed a surprising profit recovery: EBITDA rose 9.5% and net profit jumped 33.4%, likely from cost cuts or favorable input prices. LAB had no such luck, with EBITDA down 8.7% and net profit barely changed at -0.8%. The industrial conglomerate CARSO also struggled, with revenue down 4.3%, EBITDA down 10.3%, and net profit down 6.6%—a broad-based slowdown after prior-year growth of 2.3% in revenue and 9.8% in net profit.

The plot twist: BIMBO’s profit surge defies its revenue decline, while ALSEA’s profit collapse is a warning sign

The biggest surprise is BIMBO: revenue shrank 3.3%, yet net profit soared 33.4%—a dramatic acceleration from the prior year’s net profit decline of 18.9%. That is a 52.3-percentage-point swing in profitability, rare for a packaged foods giant. In contrast, ALSEA, the restaurant operator, saw net profit plunge 60.7% year over year, even as revenue barely grew 0.3%. EBITDA fell 9.5%, suggesting deep margin compression. ALSEA’s prior-year net profit figure is not available, but the magnitude of the drop is a clear red flag for investors chasing defensive consumer plays.

Valuation: BIMBO and ALSEA are priced for different outcomes, but GMEXICO looks cheap for its growth

BIMBO trades at 20.8x P/E and 6.9x EV/EBITDA—not cheap for a company with shrinking revenue, but the profit recovery may justify a premium if sustained. ALSEA, at 14.5x P/E and 4.1x EV/EBITDA, looks cheap on an absolute basis, but the 60.7% net profit collapse makes that multiple a value trap unless margins stabilize. The standout on value is GMEXICO: growing revenue 32.6% and net profit 62.3%, yet trading at just 16.8x P/E and 8.0x EV/EBITDA. That is a growth-at-a-reasonable-price profile that few in this cohort can match. At the other extreme, CARSO trades at 36.1x P/E and 18.2x EV/EBITDA—priced for perfection despite a 4.3% revenue decline.

Income seekers find slim pickings, with no standout yields in the data

The provided data does not include dividend yields for any company, so a yield comparison is not possible. However, the absence of yield figures in this season’s reporting suggests that income is not the primary draw for most of these names—growth and valuation are the battlegrounds.

Long view: GAP and INBURSA show sustained compounding, while ASUR’s growth slows sharply

Among the few with 3-year revenue CAGRs, GAP (airports) leads with 14.8%, followed by INBURSA (banks) at 16.0% and BBAJIO (banks) at 10.3%. GAP’s current revenue growth is not available, but its long-term compounding is impressive. In contrast, ASUR, another airport operator, saw revenue growth slow from 21.3% in the prior year to just 0.8% this quarter—a dramatic deceleration that raises questions about capacity or demand ceilings. Looking ahead, the key watchpoint is whether GMEXICO can sustain its torrid pace as commodity cycles turn, and whether BIMBO’s profit recovery is a one-off or a new trend. The next quarter will separate the cyclicals from the growers.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)