Walmex: revenue nearly flat, EBITDA down – the retailer pays for price and digital investments

25 августа Walmex раскрыла результаты за второй квартал 2026 года. Выручка выросла всего на 1,9% год к году, до 250,9 млрд песо, EBITDA сократилась на 9,0% до 23,6 млрд песо, а чистая прибыль снизилась на 0,7% до 11,2 млрд песо. При текущей цене акция выглядит скорее привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA (7,6) заметно ниже собственного трёхлетнего среднего (10,7), а модель портала оценивает потенциал роста всего в +1%, что ограничивает апсайд.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue grew only 1.9% – growth slowed from 8.3% a year earlier

— EBITDA fell 9.0% on margin pressure: 8.5% vs 9.5% a year ago

— Net profit declined 0.7%, but margin contracted only slightly – to 4.4%

— Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.46 of EBITDA over the last twelve months

— Capex in the quarter was 9.3 billion pesos – almost half of operating cash flow

— The stock trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 10.7 three-year average

— The portal's model sees only +1% upside – limited appreciation potential

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Q2 revenue grew only 1.9% – growth slowed from 8.3% a year earlier

In Q2 2026, Walmex revenue reached 250.9 billion pesos, only 1.9% higher than a year earlier. For comparison, growth was 8.3% a year ago and 1.7% in Q1 2026. The slowdown has been underway for several quarters: from 6.5% in Q1 2025 to current levels.

In the report, management attributes the weak dynamics to macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer pressure, especially in Central America, where deflation in Costa Rica is hurting sales. In Mexico, same-store sales rose 3.1%, outperforming the market, but traffic is declining – management expects improvement as price perception recovers.

EBITDA fell 9.0% on margin pressure: 8.5% vs 9.5% a year ago

EBITDA in Q2 was 23.6 billion pesos, 9.0% lower than a year earlier. The margin contracted from 9.5% to 8.5%. The main reason is increased investment in price and digital initiatives, which are not yet paying off in sales growth.

Management acknowledges the operating environment remains challenging and focuses on long-term improvements: expanding e-commerce, developing the Walmart Connect advertising business, and automation. But for now, these investments are pressuring profitability.

Net profit declined 0.7%, but margin contracted only slightly – to 4.4%

Net profit for the quarter was 11.2 billion pesos, 0.7% lower than a year earlier. The margin declined from 4.6% to 4.4% – the EBITDA decline was partially offset by a lower effective tax rate.

The report states that net profit remained roughly flat thanks to the tax effect. This means operating weakness is not yet translating into a proportional drop in profit.

Leverage remains low: net debt is 0.46 of EBITDA over the last twelve months

At the end of the quarter, net debt was 52.3 billion pesos, equivalent to 0.46 EBITDA over the last twelve months. This is a low level, leaving room for investments and shareholder returns.

Over the last twelve months, operating cash flow was 91.3 billion pesos, well above capital expenditures. The company retains financial flexibility.

Capex in the quarter was 9.3 billion pesos – almost half of operating cash flow

In Q2, capital expenditures were 9.3 billion pesos, while operating cash flow was 18.3 billion pesos. This is a high level of investment, related to new store openings and automation.

Management confirms that investments are aimed at long-term growth, including fully automated distribution centers. However, this means free cash flow remains constrained.

The stock trades at a discount to its own history: EV/EBITDA 7.6 vs 10.7 three-year average

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 7.6, well below the three-year average (10.7). This suggests the market has already priced in slowing growth and margin pressure.

P/E over the last twelve months is 16.3, and dividend yield is 3.7%. At this valuation, the stock looks undervalued relative to its own history, but upside is limited.

The portal's model sees only +1% upside – limited appreciation potential

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and a target multiple, the fair value of the share is only 1% above the current price. This means the market is already close to fair value.

The share is held in the portal's MX FVC (quality) strategy, reflecting its fundamental characteristics, but this is not an argument for buying. Upside is limited until the company shows revenue acceleration and margin stabilization.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

Bottom line: Walmex reported a weak quarter – revenue barely grew, EBITDA fell 9%, and net profit declined slightly. The company is investing in price and digital initiatives, which pressures margins but has not yet delivered growth acceleration. Leverage is low, and the EV/EBITDA multiple (7.6) is well below its own three-year average (10.7), providing some support. However, the portal's model sees only +1% upside, so the stock looks rather attractive but with limited appreciation potential. A revision would require revenue acceleration and margin stabilization in coming quarters.