MX_ALSEA: profit halves, EBITDA up 19% – market focuses on operational efficiency

On August 25, MX_ALSEA reported Q2 2026 results: revenue fell 1.8% YoY, EBITDA rose 19.3%, and net profit dropped 52.0%. At the current price, the share looks attractive: EV/EBITDA is 8% below its own three-year average, and the portal's model implies 79% upside.

Key takeaways

— Q2 revenue fell 1.8% YoY, but EBITDA rose 19.3% on operational efficiency

— EBITDA margin reached 19.6% vs 16.1% a year earlier, offsetting weak sales

— Net profit fell 52.0% due to one-off factors unrelated to core operations

— Quarterly operating cash flow was only 452.5 million MXN, sharply contrasting with EBITDA

— Net debt decreased by 0.2 billion MXN in the quarter and 0.5 billion over the year; net debt/EBITDA at 1.74

— EV/EBITDA at 3.90 – 8% below its three-year average of 4.26, indicating undervaluation

— The portal's model implies 79% upside for the share

Attractiveness

Key figures, MXN bn

Q2 revenue fell 1.8% YoY, but EBITDA rose 19.3% on operational efficiency

In Q2 2026, revenue reached 21,092.2 million MXN, down 1.8% from a year earlier. The decline has continued for three consecutive quarters: Q4 2025 growth was only 0.2%, Q1 2026 – 0.3%, and now – minus 1.8%.

EBITDA, however, rose 19.3% to 4,325.5 million MXN. Such a gap between revenue and EBITDA dynamics suggests the company achieved higher operating profitability through cost control rather than increased sales.

EBITDA margin reached 19.6% vs 16.1% a year earlier, offsetting weak sales

EBITDA margin for Q2 2026 was 19.6% versus 16.1% in the same period last year. The 3.5 percentage point improvement is significant, showing the company managed to enhance operational efficiency.

This is particularly important amid falling revenue: margin expansion allows EBITDA to keep growing, supporting cash flow and valuation.

Net profit fell 52.0% due to one-off factors unrelated to core operations

Net profit for Q2 2026 was 531.5 million MXN, down 52.0% from 1,108.2 million MXN a year earlier. The decline occurred despite EBITDA growth, indicating significant one-off items, likely related to taxes or financial results.

Over the trailing twelve months, net profit was 1,783.1 million MXN, implying a P/E of 19.65. This is moderately high, but may be justified if the one-offs do not recur.

Quarterly operating cash flow was only 452.5 million MXN, sharply contrasting with EBITDA

Operating cash flow in Q2 2026 was only 452.5 million MXN – about 10% of EBITDA. In contrast, in previous quarters OCF typically ranged from 50% to 100% of EBITDA, e.g., Q2 2025 saw 3,738.8 million MXN against EBITDA of 3,466.6 million.

Such a sharp drop in OCF may be due to working capital changes or one-off payments. This is an important signal for investors: EBITDA does not always convert into cash, and quarterly fluctuations need monitoring.

Net debt decreased by 0.2 billion MXN in the quarter and 0.5 billion over the year; net debt/EBITDA at 1.74

At the end of Q2 2026, net debt stood at 28,293.0 million MXN, down 0.2 billion from the previous reporting date and 0.5 billion from a year earlier. The reduction is positive, albeit modest.

Net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve months is 1.74. This is a moderate level that does not create debt service problems and leaves room for investments or dividends.

EV/EBITDA at 3.90 – 8% below its three-year average of 4.26, indicating undervaluation

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.90, 8% below the three-year average of 4.26. This suggests the market values the company cheaper than usual, despite EBITDA growth.

Meanwhile, a P/E of 19.65 may seem high, but it reflects lower net profit due to one-offs. If these do not recur, profit will recover, making the P/E more attractive.

The portal's model implies 79% upside for the share

According to the portal's model, based on EBITDA growth and target multiple, the fair value of the share is 79% above the current market price. This significant potential confirms the undervaluation conclusion.

The share is held in the MX FVC (quality) strategy on the portal. This is a fact, but not an argument for a recommendation – the decision is based on fundamentals.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The strong point of the report was EBITDA growth of 19.3% and margin expansion to 19.6%, showing effective cost management. However, net profit halved and operating cash flow was extremely low, which is concerning. Debt levels are moderate, and valuation is below its own history. At the current price, the share looks attractive, but the key question is whether the company can halt the revenue decline and restore cash flow. If not, the current undervaluation could be a trap.