Grupo México: record revenue and EBITDA in Q1 2026, but higher metal prices are the main driver

28 апреля 2026 года Grupo México раскрыла результаты за первый квартал 2026 года: выручка выросла на 32,6% год к году до 5 565,3 млн долл., EBITDA – на 47,7% до 3 308,9 млн долл., чистая прибыль – на 62,3% до 1 637,8 млн долл.. Рост обеспечен главным образом повышением цен на медь, серебро и цинк, а также увеличением объёмов продаж серебра и цинка. Акции выглядят привлекательно: мультипликатор EV/EBITDA 9,2 превышает средний за три года 6,7, но модель портала оценивает потенциал роста в +11%, что вместе с сильной динамикой показателей и низким долгом оправдывает позитивную оценку.

Key takeaways

— Revenue in Q1 2026 grew 32.6% to $5,565.3 million, driven by higher copper, silver and zinc prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes

— EBITDA in Q1 2026 reached $3,308.9 million, with margin up to 59.5% from 53.4% a year earlier

— Net profit in Q1 2026 increased 62.3% to $1,637.8 million, with margin up to 29.4% from 24.1%

— Leverage is low: net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at 0.04

— The company continues to invest in growth projects with a total budget of more than $27 billion through the end of the decade

— The dividend for Q1 2026 implies an annualized yield of 3.3%, higher than the market average

— EV/EBITDA multiple (9.2) is above its three-year average (6.7), but the portal's model gives upside potential of +11%

Attractiveness

Key figures, USD bn

Revenue in Q1 2026 grew 32.6% to $5,565.3 million, driven by higher copper, silver and zinc prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes

In the first quarter of 2026, Grupo México's consolidated revenue reached a record $5,565.3 million, up 32.6% from the same period last year. The main contribution came from the mining division, whose revenue grew 37.7% to $4,606.6 million, driven by higher copper prices (LME, +37.5%), silver (+157.9%), molybdenum (+25.3%) and zinc (+14.0%), as well as higher silver and zinc sales volumes.

The transportation division increased revenue by 15.6% to $896 million, while the infrastructure division decreased by 9.5% to $158 million due to the suspension of four PEMEX rigs and lower gas prices. Thus, higher metal prices were the main driver of revenue, while copper production volumes even declined by 2.8%.

EBITDA in Q1 2026 reached $3,308.9 million, with margin up to 59.5% from 53.4% a year earlier

EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to $3,308.9 million, up 47.7% year-on-year. EBITDA margin rose to 59.5% from 53.4% in Q1 2025. The main contribution came from the mining division, where EBITDA grew 59.2% to $2,871.8 million, with margin reaching 62.3%.

The margin expansion reflects operating leverage: cost of sales rose only 15.3%, while revenue increased 32.6%. The company also notes a reduction in cash cost per pound of copper net of byproducts to $0.22, down 79% from the prior year, thanks to higher byproduct credits.

Net profit in Q1 2026 increased 62.3% to $1,637.8 million, with margin up to 29.4% from 24.1%

Net profit attributable to Grupo México shareholders in Q1 2026 grew 62.3% to $1,637.8 million. Net margin increased to 29.4% from 24.1% a year earlier. Profit growth was driven by operating results and a positive effect from other income (in the report – 'Other (income) expense, net': minus $4.9 million versus plus $23.5 million a year earlier).

The effective tax rate rose from 33.8% to 34.6%, somewhat dampening net profit growth. Nevertheless, profit growth outpaced revenue growth, reflecting operating leverage and cost control.

Leverage is low: net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at 0.04

At the end of Q1 2026, the company had a net cash position of $954.6 million (negative net debt), versus net debt of $636.5 million a year earlier. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months stood at 0.04, indicating minimal leverage.

The company generates solid operating cash flow: in Q1 2026 it reached $1,652.7 million versus $871.2 million a year earlier. Capital expenditures remained almost flat year-on-year at $524.4 million, allowing the company to maintain positive free cash flow.

The company continues to invest in growth projects with a total budget of more than $27 billion through the end of the decade

Grupo México confirms a large-scale investment program: capital expenditures in the current decade may exceed $27 billion and include projects in Peru, the US, Spain and Mexico. Key projects include Tia Maria in Peru (start-up expected in Q3 2027, progress 32.5%), the Ray concentrator expansion in Arizona (investment $1.8 billion) and the El Arco project in Mexico (awaiting permits).

The company also announced a strategic combination of its power generation assets with Saavi Energía (managed by BlackRock), creating a platform with an indicative valuation of about $5.5 billion and projected 2026 EBITDA in the range of $675–725 million. The transaction involves a cash contribution from Grupo México of approximately $880 million funded from its own cash flow.

The dividend for Q1 2026 implies an annualized yield of 3.3%, higher than the market average

On April 24, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of MXN 1.65 per share, payable in a single installment on June 1, 2026. The company estimates an annualized dividend yield of 3.3%.

Over the last twelve months, the dividend yield was 2.34%, lower than the declared annual yield, as the latest dividend is not yet included in the calculation. Nevertheless, the dividend policy remains sustainable thanks to strong cash flow.

EV/EBITDA multiple (9.2) is above its three-year average (6.7), but the portal's model gives upside potential of +11%

The current EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.2, notably above the three-year average (6.7). P/E for the last twelve months is 18.1. The share price appreciation reflects improved operating performance and favorable metal prices.

According to the portal's model, re-pricing EBITDA at current commodity prices and applying the target EV/EBITDA implies upside potential of +11% to the current market capitalization ($102,541.2 million). This is moderate but positive potential, which, combined with low debt and growing dividends, makes the shares attractive.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

The Q1 2026 report shows strong results: record revenue, significant growth in EBITDA and net profit, and margin expansion. The drivers were high metal prices and higher silver and zinc sales volumes, while copper production declined. The company maintains low leverage and continues large-scale investments in growth projects. However, the current valuation (EV/EBITDA 9.2) already reflects the favorable environment, and further share price appreciation will depend on the sustainability of metal prices. With +11% upside on the portal's model and a dividend yield of 3.3%, the shares look attractive for long-term investors.