Mexico's copper-fueled comeback: GMexico outshines a sluggish consumer pack

This season's defining split is between the industrial heartbeat and the consumer pulse. While metals and mining revenue surged 32.6%, consumer-facing sectors from beverages to retail barely eked out low-single-digit gains, and packaged foods actually contracted. The message is clear: Mexico's growth engine is now heavy industry, not the shopper.

Revenue growth by industry (median YoY)

GMexico is the undisputed heavyweight champion of this earnings season

GMexico's revenue exploded 32.6% year over year, with EBITDA up 47.7% and net profit soaring 62.3%. This isn't just a bounce; it's an acceleration from prior growth of 12.4% revenue and 26.6% net profit. The metals and mining sector's median revenue growth of 32.6% is more than five times the next-best industry, making GMexico the clear standout.

FEMSA also delivered a solid beat, with revenue up 6.1% and net profit up 155.4%, though that profit figure is flattered by a weak prior-year base. Still, its EBITDA growth of 11.2% shows operational momentum. AMX, the telecom giant, grew revenue 2.1% and net profit 25.1%, a respectable showing in a low-growth sector.

Consumer health and packaged foods are the sick men of this earnings season

LAB, the consumer health player, saw revenue fall 4.9% and EBITDA drop 8.7%, a stark reversal from prior growth of 13.0% revenue. BIMBO, the bakery giant, saw revenue decline 3.3%, though it managed to grow EBITDA 9.5% and net profit 33.4% — a cost-cutting story, not a demand one. CARSO, the industrial conglomerate, also stumbled with revenue down 4.3% and EBITDA down 10.3%.

ALSEA's profit collapse is the season's biggest surprise, despite revenue growth

ALSEA, the restaurant operator, grew revenue 0.3% and EBITDA 20.4%, yet net profit plunged 60.7% — a dramatic divergence that signals margin compression or one-off charges. This is a stark contrast to its prior net profit decline of 74.3%, but the scale of the loss is still jarring. Investors should dig into the bridge between EBITDA and net income.

Value is hiding in plain sight: LAB and LIVERPOL trade at single-digit P/Es despite mixed growth

LAB trades at just 8.5x earnings and 4.7x EV/EBITDA, yet its revenue is shrinking — so the cheapness is warranted. LIVERPOL, with a P/E of 8.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.0x, looks more interesting: revenue dipped only 0.2%, and the market is pricing in a recovery. Meanwhile, CARSO trades at a whopping 41.1x P/E and 20.5x EV/EBITDA despite negative growth — that's priced for perfection and then some.

Airports offer the best yield play, but watch for slowing growth

ASUR leads the airport pack with a P/E of 14.0x and an implied dividend yield that stands out, though its revenue growth of 0.8% is a sharp slowdown from 21.3% prior. GAP and OMA trade at higher multiples (20.2x and 17.2x P/E respectively) but offer 3-year revenue CAGRs of 14.8% and 10.2% — a trade-off between yield and growth. For income-focused investors, ASUR's yield is compelling, but the deceleration is a warning sign.

Looking ahead, the divergence between industrial strength and consumer weakness is likely to persist. GMexico's momentum could continue if commodity prices hold, while consumer names like BIMBO and LIVERPOL need a demand recovery to justify their valuations. The next quarter will reveal whether ALSEA's profit slump is a one-off or a trend. Watch for any signs of consumer spending pickup — that would be the real game-changer.

Players: growth & yield (no absolute levels)