ArenaData: H1 revenue up 85.8%, but margins remain deeply negative

On August 25, ArenaData reported H1 2026 results: revenue grew 85.8% YoY, but EBITDA margin was -17.4% and net margin -13.8%. This review examines what drives the growth and why profitability has not yet recovered.

Key takeaways

— H1 revenue grew 85.8% – to RUB 3,900 million over the last 12 months

— H1 EBITDA margin was -17.4% – improved from -87.8% a year earlier, but still deeply negative

— H1 net margin -13.8% – versus -67.8% a year earlier, loss narrowing

— Net debt is negative: -RUB 1,159 million, the company sits on cash

— Dividend over the last 12 months – RUB 6.43 per share, yield 7.7% – above our fair yield of 7.0%

— Shares rose 22.7% from the release to August 17 – the market reacted positively

Key figures, RUB bn

H1 revenue grew 85.8% – to RUB 3,900 million over the last 12 months

In H1 2026, ArenaData's revenue grew 85.8% YoY. This is a strong pace, indicating high demand for the company's products. Over the last 12 months, revenue reached RUB 3,900 million – a level that the market is pricing in.

Revenue growth is the main driver for the stock: from the release to August 17, shares gained 22.7%. Investors see the company scaling up, even if profit is not yet following revenue.

H1 EBITDA margin was -17.4% – improved from -87.8% a year earlier, but still deeply negative

EBITDA margin for H1 2026 was -17.4%. A year earlier it was -87.8% – meaning the company cut operating losses more than fivefold. This is a significant improvement, but it does not mean the business is profitable.

Negative EBITDA indicates that operating expenses still exceed revenue. The company is likely investing in growth, but it is not yet generating operating profit. The question is when the margin will turn positive – this will be a key indicator for investors.

H1 net margin -13.8% – versus -67.8% a year earlier, loss narrowing

Net margin for H1 2026 was -13.8%, versus -67.8% a year earlier. The loss is narrowing, but the company is still not profitable on a net level. Over the last 12 months, net profit was RUB 1,938.4 million – a positive figure, likely driven by one-off income or revaluation.

The narrowing net loss is a positive signal, but it should not obscure the fact that operating activities remain loss-making. Investors should watch the net margin trend in upcoming reports – if it continues to improve, it will confirm the sustainability of the trend.

Net debt is negative: -RUB 1,159 million, the company sits on cash

On the latest balance sheet, ArenaData's net debt was -RUB 1,159 million. This means cash exceeds debt, and the company is financially stable. Over the last 12 months, net debt decreased by RUB 1.1 billion, although it increased by RUB 0.9 billion in the previous reporting period.

Negative net debt is a safety cushion. The company can finance growth without borrowing, reducing risks. However, operating cash flow over the last 12 months was RUB 3,300 million – a good figure, but it may be related to working capital changes.

Dividend over the last 12 months – RUB 6.43 per share, yield 7.7% – above our fair yield of 7.0%

Over the last 12 months, ArenaData paid RUB 6.43 per share, giving a dividend yield of 7.7%. Our model estimates the next payout also at RUB 6.43 per share, corresponding to a forward yield of 7.7%. We consider a fair yield of 7.0% for this company.

The current yield is above our fair estimate, making the shares attractive for dividend investors. The payout ratio is 0.3 of profit – a moderate level that leaves room for dividend growth if profit increases.

Shares rose 22.7% from the release to August 17 – the market reacted positively

The share price before the release was RUB 67.6. On the release day, shares rose 5.8%, and by August 17 they had gained another 22.7%. This indicates that the market appreciated the acceleration in revenue growth and narrowing losses.

Current market capitalization is RUB 18,466.4 million, and P/E over the last 12 months is 9.5. This is a low valuation for a fast-growing company, which may explain investor interest. However, it is worth remembering that profit over the last 12 months may include one-off items.

Valuation on the latest reported figures

Bottom line

ArenaData showed strong revenue growth – 85.8% for H1, confirming high demand for its products. The improvement in margins, albeit from deeply negative levels, is a positive trend, but profitability is still far away. Negative net debt and a dividend yield above fair make the stock attractive for conservative investors, but the sustainability of these factors depends on the company's ability to turn operating activities positive. The key question for holders is when EBITDA and net margins will become positive, and whether additional capital injections will be needed to sustain growth.